Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[TR_123456]

Apparently, not so much.

So,what will happen is obvious,

When Armenia starts(it will) to fire with these new toys,they will be destroyed.

 

[Bürküt]

Translated:
It's one of the best news I've received recently.
The photograph on the left is of an armenian named Vagif Khachaturian, who tortured and massacred at least 25 civilians in Khojaly in 1991.
Today, while the armenian criminal was trying to cross to armenia for treatment from the checkpoint in the Lachin corridor, he was detained by the forces of the Azerbaijan State Border Unit and brought to Azerbaijani justice

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1685322435229302784

It's nice to see the Peyser's facing off with the justice.

 

[Sanchez]

Enemy doesn't sleep. You can discount the new weapons they get. Will you say the same when they get Indian made SAMs they made with Israeli support? Azerbaijan needs to keep the qualitative and quantitative edge it has and end this war with the peace we need, by all means.

 

[Afif]

So,what will happen is obvious,

When Armenia starts(it will) to fire with these new toys,they will be destroyed.

Well, the issue is, as reported Armenia's shopping list from India likely to continue with advance air defence system like MRSAM, AKASH NG or QRSAM. (all of them are state of art systems and unlike Soviet/Russian systems they could bring success in denying airspace to Azerbaijani air force)

Also, they are likely to acquire drones (both male class and smaller kamikaze UCAVs) from India or Iran. Which may not be as sophisticated as TB-2, but as Ukraine war showed, it could potentially do a lot of damage.

What I am Suggesting is, not to underestimate the adversary even when they lost to you recently.
In this way, Azerbaijan can always stay one step ahead.

 

[TR_123456]

Well, the issue is, as reported Armenia's shopping list from India likely to continue with advance air defence system like MRSAM, AKASH NG or QRSAM. (all of them are state of art systems and unlike Soviet/Russian systems they could bring success in denying airspace to Azerbaijani air force)

Also, they are likely to acquire drones (both male class and smaller kamikaze UCAVs) from India or Iran. Which may not be as sophisticated as TB-2, but as Ukraine war showed, it could potentially do a lot of damage.

What I am Suggesting is, not to underestimate the adversary even when they lost to you recently.
In this way Azerbaijan can always stay one step ahead.

There is no underestimating,Azerbaijan will never let its gard down again,even if and when there is a so called peace deal between the two.
With the new Turkish satelites(not all yet) in place,there is no getting away or hiding for Armenia.
Türkiye will provide every weapon needed to counter Armenia.
Even Russia/USA/EU/India cant save them then.

 

[Ryder]

Turkiye should just pour weapons into Azerbaijan.

Turkiye can find many ways to counter India.

Dont let this slide.

 

[Bürküt]

Well, the issue is, as reported Armenia's shopping list from India likely to continue with advance air defence system like MRSAM, AKASH NG or QRSAM. (all of them are state of art systems and unlike Soviet/Russian systems they could bring success in denying airspace to Azerbaijani air force)

Also, they are likely to acquire drones (both male class and smaller kamikaze UCAVs) from India or Iran. Which may not be as sophisticated as TB-2, but as Ukraine war showed, it could potentially do a lot of damage.

What I am Suggesting is, not to underestimate the adversary even when they lost to you recently.
In this way, Azerbaijan can always stay one step ahead.

They can buy as many air defense batteries as they want.If we think of batteries as a pistol, they will never have enough bullets to load them.Türkiye's hand is pretty strong on fake targets.At what target will they launch the surface-to-air missiles?With what money will they fill the empty magazines?Not to mention the anti-radiation missiles and drones that are already being developed.

The Western world is pretty tired from helping Ukraine.Will they want to finance a war against a country that is a friend of Israel and enemy of Iran? If necessary, we put our hand under the stone.What about Indians.Will they be willing to invest in Armenia when the danger of China and Pakistan is out there?

The biggest danger here is just Iran.Of course, they will supply cheap-annoying drones to Armenia as they did to Russia.And we have separate solutions for them. These were revealed at the Idef fair.

 

[TR_123456]

Turkiye should just pour weapons into Azerbaijan.

Turkiye can find many ways to counter India.

Dont let this slide.

This has nothing to do with India,dont bring it in.
You think Armenia(broke,no money) bought them from India?

 

[Ryder]

This has nothing to do with India,dont bring it in.

More countries are getting involved in Karabag.

Whether directly or indirectly.

 

[TheInsider]

First contract worth approximately 250 millions USD for guided Pinaka MLRS. (four Regiment. 18x vehicle each)

Previously Armenia only had old GRAD MLRS. Which was unguided and didn’t have enough range.
While guided Pinaka with 75km range is similar to TRG-230. And four regiment of these will be an unprecedented force multiplier for Armenian medium range precision fire support element. (a capability they almost didn’t have before)
Also, longer range of Pinaka gives it better stand off capability, thus increasing the platform's survivability.

Second contract worth approximately 160 millions for estimated 70-75 (4x regiments) 155mm/52 cal. ATAGS howitzers.

Now previously, Armenia only had around 50 152mm very old soviet howitzers which wasn’t very accurate or effective. (lacked digital fire control system)

Now, these 4/5 regiments of new ATAGS (Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System) equipped with digital fire control systems is also going to be a significant force multiplier for Armenian long range heavy artillery element. (Again, a capability that they also didn’t have before)

Apart from that, Armenia also bought 4x weapon locating radars.
Given all of these are Indian systems, if they are able to integrate them in a single battle management system, IMO, it will likely to suppress Azerbaijan's current ground fire support capabilities.


Thus, Azerbaijan should acquire 1x more regiment of TRG-300 Kaplan or PULS MLRS and 2x more regiments of Firtina or ATMOS SP howitzers to maintain the balance in operational fire support capability.

We don't know how many rockets Armenia ordered and how many of those are guided rockets. It is not easy to sustain operational tempo without a big stock. You can be sure that GPS will be jammed further reducing the effectiveness of the guided rockets. Armenia launched Tockas and Iskanders but that didn't change the result. Azerbaijan's aerial capability is a lot stronger now with Akıncı, modernized Su-25s, and TB2s that carry Kemankeş loitering munition/cruise missiles so i don't think this move will affect the military balance in a meaningful way.

 

[Ryder]

Didnt the Armenians have Su30s. Did they use them in the war?

During the Karabag war of 2020 I have not heard any Su30s being used at all.

 

[TheInsider]

Enemy doesn't sleep. You can discount the new weapons they get. Will you say the same when they get Indian made SAMs they made with Israeli support? Azerbaijan needs to keep the qualitative and quantitative edge it has and end this war with the peace we need, by all means.

Those SAMS will be TB2 food but before that...

Do you think Israel will stay silent when their number 1 ally faces this type of problem?

 

[Sanchez]

Those SAMS will be TB2 food but before that...

Do you think Israel will stay silent when their number 1 ally faces this type of problem?

As India's footprint grows, they will have more leeway to act and they no longer desperately need Israel's advanced hardware, they can now just buy it from US. There are plenty of things Israel can't do anything against. India getting its nose into the Caucasus is not good.

 

[Agha Sher]

Didnt the Armenians have Su30s. Did they use them in the war?

During the Karabag war of 2020 I have not heard any Su30s being used at all.

Apparently they bought Su-30s without A2A missiles. They are broke and only buy half-ass solutions or cheap/poor quality indian stuff.

 

[TheInsider]

As India's footprint grows, they will have more leeway to act and they no longer desperately need Israel's advanced hardware, they can now just buy it from US. There are plenty of things Israel can't do anything against. India getting its nose into the Caucasus is not good.

Don't make the mistake China is the current competitor of the US but India is the next competitor. The US global strategy revolves around not allowing new powers to pop up. The US support Greece against Turkiyei India against China and in the future it will probably support Pakistan against India. Checks and balances all around the globe to maintain the US as the global hegemon.

 

[Sanchez]

Don't make the mistake China is the current competitor of the US but India is the next competitor. The US global strategy revolves around not allowing new powers to pop up.

US failed to not allow China emerge as a power and will also fail at not allowing India. And that's not our problem. Security of Caucasus and Turkey is our problem. India slowly and steadily interfering in it is a problem.

 

[Afif]

We don't know how many rockets Armenia ordered and how many of those are guided rockets. It is not easy to sustain operational tempo without a big stock. You can be sure that GPS will be jammed further reducing the effectiveness of the guided rockets. Armenia launched Tockas and Iskanders but that didn't change the result. Azerbaijan's aerial capability is a lot stronger now with Akıncı, modernized Su-25s, and TB2s that carry Kemankeş loitering munition/cruise missiles so i don't think this move will affect the military balance in a meaningful way.

That's not what the comparison was about. I wasn't talking about the overall military balance (factoring in Azerbaijan's areal capabilities)

Comparison was only between projected ground fire support capabilities of two countries. (Both MLRS and 155mm heavy artillery)

It won't hurt Azerbaijan to maintain the balance in ground fire support capabilities while keeping the supremacy in the air.


On a side note- I think with $250 millions they bought quite a large number of rockets.

 

[Agha Sher]

That's not what the comparison was about. I wasn't talking about the overall military balance (factoring in Azerbaijan's areal capabilities)

Comparison was only between projected ground fire support capabilities of two countries.

It won't hurt Azerbaijan to maintain the balance in ground fire support capabilities while keeping the supremacy in the air.


On a side note- I think with $250 millions they bought quite a large number of rockets.

I believe the ground fire support capabilities is still largely in Azerbaijan's favor.

Armenia has nothing similar to the following gound fire equipment of Azerbaijan.

35x DANA
20x 2S19 Msta
15x PION
18x TOS-1A
30x BM-30

 

[Afif]

I believe the ground fire support capabilities is still largely in Azerbaijan's favor.

Armenia has nothing similar to the following gound fire equipment of Azerbaijan.

35x DANA
20x 2S19 Msta
15x PION
18x TOS-1A
30x BM-30

For heavy artillery they have around 50 152mm old towed guns. (2A36 and D-20)
not sure how many of them survived the war though.

Armenia also supposedly bought 1x regiment (18x) TOS-1A as well as 1x regiment BM-30. (Under 2015 deal)

The issue is, afaik except 2x regiment (36x) Firtina non of the big guns in Azerbaijani inventory is equipped with digital fire control system and relevant electronic package.
While 75 ATAGS are coming equipped digital fire control system. That’s why i think procuring 2x more regiment of Firtina would be an excellent force multiplier.

anyway, let’s agree to disagree.

 

[Huelague]

Didnt the Armenians have Su30s. Did they use them in the war?

During the Karabag war of 2020 I have not heard any Su30s being used at all.

Because Az fought Karabagh, and not Armenia.