On August 8, 2025, a peace agreement ending the 35-year war between Armenia and Azerbaijan was initialed at the White House. The date, August 8, coinciding with the anniversary of Russia’s 2008 intervention in South Ossetia, symbolizes the U.S.’s return to the South Caucasus and a new phase in its Russia–Iran containment strategy. The ceremony, marked by the two leaders’ excessive flattery of Trump and their Nobel nomination suggestion, became an indicator of global moral decay in the shadow of the ongoing massacre in Gaza. The most critical outcome of the agreement for Turkey is the 44-km Zengezur Corridor. The corridor’s construction and operation rights being granted to the U.S. for 99 years pose significant geopolitical risks for Turkey, Russia, and Iran. While the corridor connects Turkey directly to Azerbaijan and Central Asia, the U.S.’s entrenchment in the region signifies a new American encirclement line in the South Caucasus. This can be seen as a modern version of the historical “Caucasian Wall.” U.S. control could weaken Russia and Iran’s connections through Armenia, which resist hegemony, and potentially create obstacles for China’s “Belt and Road” initiative, which also offers opportunities for Turkey. If Turkish–American relations deteriorate, the corridor could be used against Turkey. The ultimate goal should be to establish Eurasia-centered peace and cooperation among Turkey, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, keeping the South Caucasus free from U.S. influence. As long as this corridor remains under Washington’s control, it will serve American Turanism and provide opportunities to strain Turkish–Russian and Turkish–Iranian relations in the future, which must not be overlooked. While strengthening ties with the Turkic world, we cannot ignore the potential to tip delicate global balances against us. In a context where a new process has been initiated for Hezbollah to disarm in Lebanon, which Hezbollah opposes; Israel has announced a Gaza annexation plan reminiscent of Hitler’s so-called final solution; Greece’s newly declared maritime spatial planning map, supported by the U.S. and EU, mirrors the Sevilla map that pushes Turkey toward the continent; articles in the media discuss Israel’s consideration of military intervention in Northern Cyprus and the necessity of establishing a Kurdish state with sea access; the Serb president in the Bosnia-Herzegovina federation has been sacked; and the FBI has placed a bounty on Venezuela’s elected president Maduro, who resists the U.S., the initialing of this agreement stands out. History holds the answer to how lasting the gains are when approaching the West, showering the U.S. and Trump with flattery and praise. In the 1990s, Ankara repeatedly agreed to Operation Provide Comfort, paving the way for an autonomous Kurdish state in Iraq. The same grave mistake was made in Syria after 2013. Not only did millions of refugees flood into our country, but we also became direct neighbors with Israel. Post-Cold War, the CIA’s FETO structuring in Central Asia was practically applauded, and the results are clear. In short, every initiative orchestrated by the U.S. only serves its interests. Turkey has evidently not objected to this development in the South Caucasus. Under heavy financial pressure, Ankara, which sees its geopolitical future in aligning with U.S. hegemony and is steering toward increasingly risky and dangerous waters, must act with great caution. We must learn from history. With his “Caucasian Wall” definition, Atatürk referred to the chain of pro-Western buffer states—Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia—that Britain sought to establish in the Caucasus after World War I. In a letter sent on September 5, 1920, to Eastern Front Commander Kâzım Karabekir Pasha and other commanders, Atatürk emphasized that the “Caucasian Wall” was created to sever Anatolia’s land connection with the Turkish–Islamic world and stressed that its destruction was essential for both national security and strategic unity with the Turkic world. Let us remind ourselves: history does not repeat itself for the wise.
I'm not a fan of cems concern for Iran and Russia, neither are concerned for us and ideally its good both are turning into regional losers. But the general sentiment i agree with.
In the long run this is bad news is probably going to be bad news for Turkiye.