CANZUK - An upcoming superpower?

The EU is looking more toothless than ever before. Meanwhile, the USA has been hit by a worrying crisis which may cripple it for years. The western world is facing major hurdles. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel. Meet CANZUK. A theoretical union between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

Just a hundred years ago, the British Empire was the foremost global power. By the year 1920, the British held over 35 million square kilometres of land. Making their empire the largest in world history. At its peak, the phrase "the empire on which the sun never sets" was often used to describe the British Empire; a testament to just how large and widespread its territory was. However, after two world wars, the United Kingdom was superseded by its ally, the United States of America. For decades following the Second World War, The USA and the USSR became the two competing superpowers. The UK still held significant power but was losing its colonial territories. As time went on, the UK sought to integrate with Europe for a variety of benefits. Yet their early attempt to enter a union with Europe was vetoed by French president Charles de Gaulle. Over a decade later they joined the European Communities (EC). Since then, the UK has been less independent. Thus Great Britain lost its power, as the European Union sapped away its strength.

However, to think that Britain was going to fade away would be a foolish assumption. In June 2016 52% of Brits decided to vote in favour of Brexit. By the end of 2020, the transition period will be complete. Ending decades of being shackled by the rest of Europe and starting a new era. An era where the UK will be able to control its own destiny and have more freedom to ramp-up cooperation between the Commonwealth realms. Therefore being able to forge a closely-knit union where all members have a common language, history and vision for the future.

HMS_Queen_Elizabeth_in_Gibraltar_-_2018_(28386226189).jpg

Dave Jenkins - InfoGibraltar, CC BY 2.0 - The Royal Navy's new aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth arrives in Gibraltar for her first overseas port visit. The 65,000 tonne future flagship was conducting a routine logistics stop having left her home in Portsmouth a week earlier for helicopter trials. (MM180007)

Unlike the European Union, CANZUK nations are very similar to each other. All four have very similar GDP per capita and standards of living. This ensures that one-way migration doesn't take place. In Europe, many residents of Eastern European nations head as west as they can. Meanwhile, there is little to no migration eastwards. This is problematic. Due to similar economic and living conditions across CANZUK nations, migration will be balanced. The benefits for citizens of CANZUK nations will be life-changing. Those who wish to move to a hotter climate or vice-versa can do so with ease. Skilled workers who cannot find a job in their own country can be offered jobs in other CANZUK nations. Trade deals which previously wouldn't exist would be secured due to CANZUK trade negotiations... The list goes on. CANZUK will undoubtedly benefit all citizens of the four nations.

The estimated population of CANZUK would exceed 136 million. Meanwhile, its total land area would be 18,187,210 square kilometres. Making it larger than Russia. CANZUK will have access to both the North and South Pacific and Atlantic. Allowing for global power projection.

With tropical rainforests, an expansive desert, snowy mountains, pine forests, prairies and the polar region of northern Canada, there are countless landscapes across CANZUK. This not only means that there is a large variety of resources but also the luxury of being able to test technologies in harsh conditions, both hot and cold. This is particularly useful for military training. Wars are often fought in harsh environments. Training in both hot and cold climates can better prepare a military for future conflicts which may arise in tough climates or terrains such as in the Arctic or the Middle East.

Canada has access to the Northern Pacific, Northern Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. Meanwhile, Australia has access to the Southern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. It's also close to the South China Sea. Meaning it could serve as a launchpad for power projection throughout Southeast Asia. Australia, New Zealand and even the Falkland Islands could serve as key strategic zones for future standoffs in the Southern Hemisphere. Both the Arctic and the Antarctic hold immense untapped resources which may prove to be vital in the future. CANZUK is set to be a key player in both polar regions.

Due to their isolation, CANZUK nations are practically impervious to land invasions. Meaning that they can focus on interests beyond their borders rather than worrying about a massive land intrusion like Europe does. The only notable border which CANZUK shares with another nation is the Canada-United States border. However, the USA has and will continue to have good relations with Canada therefore it is not seen as a risk.

Currently, CANZUK nations have well equipped, well trained albeit small militaries. However, they possess large economies and strong defence industries, so they can easily expand their military size. A large combined military is necessary if CANZUK wishes to carve out its own future. Recently there have been indications that CANZUK nations are prepared to expand their military strength. Australia revealed a 270 billion AUD defence plan which includes acquiring hundreds of AGM-158C long-range anti-ship missiles. This is in direct response to the growing threat from China. It's also due to the realisation that Australia cannot continue to rely on the USA for its own security.

Similarly, the UK has also realised that it may need to step up and shape its own future. Great Britain once had the most advanced aircraft designs in the world. The British were years ahead of the rest of the world in the aviation industry. Nevertheless, they were soon overtaken by the USA and eventually took a back seat. The British continued manufacturing parts and engaging in joint projects such as the Eurofighter Typhoon and of course the F-35. But has not designed a fully indigenous combat aircraft in a long time. But change is coming. BAE Systems and Rolls Royce are two extremely valuable companies that are more than capable of designing and producing advanced aircraft. They are working on the Tempest 6th Generation fighter, which may be the world's most advanced aircraft once complete. Britain is committed to leading the military aviation industry once again and the Tempest project is the perfect way to regain the crown.

The Royal Navy recently commissioned two new carriers. These are of the Elizabeth-class, the largest warships to ever enter service in the Royal Navy. They are capable of carrying approximately 60 aircraft, including F-35Bs. That capacity combined with the potency of the F-35s means that the Royal Navy is stepping into a new era. Meanwhile, the Royal Australian Navy has two Canberra-class LHDs. These can function as light aircraft carriers. Australia is receiving F-35s, however, strangely there have been no orders for F-35Bs. This means that the ski ramps on the Australian LHDs are currently pointless. Australia should definitely acquire F-35Bs, not only because they will boost force projection but also justify having two STVOL compatible carriers.

All together, CANZUK nations could build an enormous fleet allowing for operations across the globe. If necessary Canada could acquire carriers in the future. A combined carrier fleet could exceed 10 vessels, making CANZUK the only entity with force projection capabilities similar to the USA. Of course, more carriers require extra ships for protection. So the current fleets require a multitude of additional vessels to protect the carriers from threats. Each ship in a carrier strike group has its own role, such as anti-air or anti-submarine warfare. Though expensive to maintain, a large amount of carriers makes sense for CANZUK. This alliance is formed of nations which are surrounded by oceans. Therefore aircraft carriers can serve as the first line of defence by allowing fighter jets to operate far from home in order to hold back airborne or naval threats. Or to assist in conflicts on other continents. Aircraft carriers are the ultimate defensive and offensive assets for CANZUK.


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Current CANZUK fleet - notice that the Canberra-class isn't considered a carrier. This may change if Australia decides to buy F-35Bs. That said LHDs are multipurpose ships that also carry landing craft.


By 2023 the first of the Type 26 frigates will be delivered. These anti-submarine frigates are designed by BAE Systems Maritime - Naval Ships. The British, Australian and Canadian navies are all set to receive them. This is an indication that further cooperation in the defence sector may be on the way. If CANZUK launches a joint defence industry initiative it could quickly propel the union's defence output well past France and Germany, into Russian and American territory. With Australia's mining boom finished, and the UK's exit from the European Union, a larger defence industry makes sense, as it will not only expand military capabilities but also add many billions to the economy via exports.

Some may fear the rise of CANZUK. They may call it the resurrection of the British Empire. If the CANZUK Union comes into fruition, it will undoubtedly emerge as a superpower. However, this is inevitable. We are heading towards a multipolar world and the west desperately needs an additional powerhouse in order to maintain a strong position. CANZUK could also serve as a new voice for the west, allowing it to start a rapprochement process with nation's which the USA has alienated. Due to a lack of powerful foreign lobbyists in comparison to the USA, CANZUK can tackle issues with pragmatic and beneficial decisions, instead of serving to the highest bidder. Meaning that CANZUK may become a better representative of the west than the USA ever was.

As France carves out its new foreign policy, keep your eyes on what the UK does. The "frenemies" will face off, however, not directly. The two nation's will most likely back opposite sides in upcoming proxy conflicts. The competition for influence throughout the region and beyond will form new alliances. The UK, by itself cannot maintain its strength in the coming decades. But by working with rising regional powers (such as Turkey), as well as having the backing of the CANZUK alliance, the UK can ensure that it is not squeezed by the EU & Russia. Incidentally, a strong United Kingdom, means a strong Australia, New Zealand and Canada. It is in all of these nation's interests to form a tightly-knit union, as the geopolitical landscape enters a new, uncertain era, where the USA is no longer an omnipresent global superpower.
 
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Saiyan0321

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My friend @Nilgiri I am not really sure, what i can add to this topic, but allow me to give my two cents

Max Weber describes the state

"A compulsory political Union With a Centralized Authority which maintains a monopoly of the legitimate use of force within a set of territory".

The above is the most commonly used definition of state and althoug many disagree, in International Relations 101, you would find this definition. When he made this definition, it was the 19th-20th century and we currently live in the modern world.

"It is perfectly normal for States to come together and form political unions." This term is used for Reunification or Unification.

Now when we talk about states coming together, most of us are often blinded by the concept of a unification under a central authority and this is especially true for our region. Concepts like Akhand Bharat, Revival of Mughal Empire, Af-Pak Union, Persian Reunification or Afghan Reunification, the concepts are always formed around the creation of a central authority and this shows the tunnel vision of our thinkers from these regions. The focus on there being a Central authority or a Central figure is so strong that even an iota of any form of decentralization causes great fear amongst the populace and the political class and we see this with the constant attacking of thew 18th amendment or the opposition to proposals for a more decentralized Afghanistan or the proposals for an extremely decentralized Pakistan in 1971. Infact, we have never come to understand whether Pakistan was the union of Decentralization or centralization.

The first thing, as alluded above, when talking about CANZUK was the incredible distance between the mentioned nations but is there a distance? Is geography truly an impediment?
If you read the works Revenge of Geography and Prisoners of Geography, then you will notice that geography plays a huge role however as the world is growing, it becoming more modernized and globalized and those that were once prisoners of geography, are now breaking free. The Chinese which were once happy to stay behind the Himalayas, are now, through the usage of advanced technology, are crossing the impassable mountains and once where they would have been happy with setting borders, are now advancing their positions as much as they can. We see the creations of new 'Silk Roads' and revival of old ones, happening. Regions that were once trade hubs are no longer the golden regions of the world. When we talk about Prisoners of Geography, we are often told, wit the perusal of history that Seas were a prison. They secured the nation, true, but they also kept them in check and I would like to point your notice to the incredible thinking of man, in thinking that Sea is a prison, that in almost all mythology, the land was surrounded by Sea. The end of Land didnt end with the begging of the edge of the world but with the beginning of the sea. Sea faring nations themselves saw the larger sea as the holder of absolute nothingness and the edge of the world. Since, our inception and our evolutionary growth, we have considered the sea as a prison however it was in the late 16th and 17th century that we truly discovered that the sea was no prison but a bridge whose currents took you to the edges of the world from north to south and then from south to west and west to north and then north to east. These currents were the bridges that connected the world and what was once considered the end of the world, became the beginning of the world. When we look at the sea, not as a prison but as a bridge then we truly come to understand how connected the world is and how unfortunate the landlocked nations are. That they are the true Prisoners of Geography. Locked and forever denied their potential.

Looking at the sea and the currents. we see bridges and this bridge could be the key to CANZUK's first problem raised that there is a land mass.

Now we come to what kind of union are we talking about. Often this question is answered with one answer that there should be a central authority, no matter how decentralized the country and amongst most nations, this thinking is prevalent. Third world countries even more, where even having two capitals is considered as the most treacherous statement known to man. The modern world is no longer slave to this tunnel vision and inbox thinking that unions must have central authority to make it feasible otherwise it cant be called a union at all but the international relations between treaty signatory nations. The more i look into the world, the more i see that nations, slowly, very slowly, are experimenting with the ideas of
Unions without central authorities, driven by central interests. These unions find a form of cement amongst their own converging interests. EU is a great example where they had their own currency, parliament, court and in this extreme decentralized structure, found their interests as the cement. Britain may have left but it doesnt change the fact that the EU is a good initial model for this. So we must not let ourselves be blinded by the reminiscing of the old British empire or the existence of Central Authorities and the British most definitely look into this, not as a revival of old power but for creating a new economical and geopolitical union in the world.

Next is whether this is doable. Very doable however not right now. No wand can make it happen. These nations must make great economical plans to expand their respective economic circles and become more tied with each other and i think that as they expand their economic clout and become more intertwined, plans should be made for a singular currency to make the difference. Programs must be funded to increase more connectivity and unity. Step by step, expand the political and economical influence. Focus should be economic and tech driven because that is where the world is headed and grand military designs shouldnt be considered at all at this stage or even at mid stage.

I think if effort is placed, this is a serious proposal but it will require great politicians and i think making it CANZUK is basically again tunnel visioning yourself. Not CANZUK but the Common wealth because there are two countries that have great British influence and are actually connected in a manner as prescribed in the article. From language aka English to History to Administrative, legal and legislative manner to sports, these links are another bridge and these two countries offer great economical opportunities. Pakistan and India. You cannot ignore these two nations which CANZUK does. Let me tell you something. If i speak a little English to any citizen in Pakistan, and they will understand. @Kaptaan can attest to this fact that nearly every shop had english words on it. Everywhere English. Language is a huge bridge but here is the thing. Gun to my head, i cant read chinese. I havent seen Chinese anywhere because nobody understands it. The few words and sentences i know, if i speak 100% nobody would get it. The British influence in our region is so huge that it speaks volumes of the death of this, once super power, that it made sure to use none of that influence to keep a form of presence in the region. It was truly dying and died the day the Chinese muscled them out of Hong Kong when once it was the British that muscled them out. Their coffin was buried that day.

So this revival must not be of CANZUK but later on the effort should be based on Commonwealth and how to increase relations and economic contacts especially with the old jewel of the British Empire and through that grow and grow to become a massive player.

As alluded above, two things must happen.

The American influence should be slowly shaken off so that it can truly think outside the box and efforts should be made to make an exemplary Union that would not be based on Central Authority but revel in its decentralized structure.

How to do that is for the thinkers of these countries especially the British and the British must take the lead here.
 

Ryder

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Uk, Aus, Nz and Canada are natural allies not just allies basically they are family. I wont be surprised if a nato like alliance happens between them.
 

RogerRanger

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The issue with the CANZUK right now is the British don't have the navy to support it. Given the disparate geographic locations from the north east Pacific to the South Pacific to the Indian Ocean to the Northern Atlantic and Arctic. The British don't have anything like the navy capable of operating in those environment or even politically understanding them. Plus the British merchant fleet is tiny compared to what it would need to be to support such a trade structure and we don't have the tactical level escort ships needed to protect the trade routes.

A few positives is that the British do have a global network of bases and territories to operate from and Australia-New Zealand-Canada are large nations, maybe not in terms of population, but in terms of territory, they have strategic depth. The issues the British had with Japan was our bases had no strategic depth in Singapore and Hong Kong. Now we could build far away from other nations and have a military position where we can see what's coming.

As for the other 'superpowers', the Chinese would be the biggest threat to it. The EU doesn't matter and the Americans are a falling power. So we need to be kind with the Americans, we need to let the Chinese know what we are doing and we need to bully the EU. Russia would be the perfect ally for the CANZUK as well.

As for what the CANZUK military would need.
5 carrier groups.
300 plus merchant fleet.
90 escort ships.
6 brigade marine force, about 30,000 men to reinforce a member nation.
Long-range naval aircraft and satellites.
Massive base infrastructure upgrades.
100 new combat jets.

And that's just for the CANZUK combined forces. Not including the member nations military's. We would be looking at 30 billion a year budget, beyond what the British are already spending.

Politically is a starter and it will be pushed in the member nations. Economically its a real positive and will be implemented. Culturally is a buoyant thing for the CANZUK countries. And Geopolitically solves a lot of issues all 4 nations have. However militarily the Chinese, Americans could chop it up in no time at the moment and it would just become like the EU, useless and with no real power, just influence.
 

RogerRanger

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Not happening unless there is rapid shift from Ameriphilla in the Anglosphere

That shift is already happening, it started once Britain voted to leave the EU. America is a dying empire, it has all the hallmarks of the British Empire in the 1930's. China in this regard is America, which a massive population, industrial base and demographic unity. So the British are moving as fast as they can to create this union and free themselves of the American and move against the Chinese. This few years the globalist spent delaying Brexit with the help of the Americans and Chinese, have slowed down this push by the British, but it is racing to get up the trade deals, political alliance and culture ties. As well as combined procurement and doctrine in military terms. Its just a question if they can get it in place before the Chinese conclusively overthrow the Americans or not. As the Americans will be the buffer to give the British time to built up its forces to combat the Chinese in the coming decades. Its also clear the British is the most powerful nation in western Europe now as well, the French are already starting stuff to hold the British back. Also the push for Scottish, Welsh independent and Irish unification is pushing the English nation to unify and politically come together, as it feels its domination in the British Isles is under threat. So its very interesting to see what happens going forward.

As of right now, I think the Americans will fold too soon and the Chinese will be in a position to prevent the British from creating the union. However I could be wrong.
 

RogerRanger

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I think an alliance can be worked upon. 2 are already in one explicitly (with mutual defense clause) i.e UK and Canada are NATO founding members.

It would not be a stretch to expand that to Australia and NZ over time.

But I do not see anything past a military alliance forming much less working sustainably. Similarly I frankly think such military alliance will always involve the US....NATO itself (for transoceanic and even trans-land given the importance of these in an alliance global war) is reliant on US military logistics (direct or funded) to the tune of 80%+.

Trade, economic and intellectual flow and such will of course be improved upon with time....that is only natural....but again that already happens and does not need a binding political union to action further.

Scotland is always seeming ready to pop off the UK at any moment these days...and I have already mentioned the interior issues of Canada. Those would have to be strong consolidated non-issues before expanding political unions in todays world.



Yes and the economic norms from this. So military alliances sure, but political unions.....very doubtful.




Honestly the english world alliance (forget political union) is not going to work without US in it. Lot of people for example don't even understand what NORAD encompasses for example. Argument sake say NATO dissolves for some reason (extremely unlikely)....Canada cannot just extricate itself from NORAD and throw its lot in exclusively with a UK+AUS alliance. The level of breakdown in Canada US relationship for NORAD (and all other security paradigms) means a very serious issue has developed that a CANZUK alliance simply cannot fix.

In fact pre-ww2, people can read up about "War Plan Red"....to see what the context of Canada was in such a hypothetical world.

NZ for all intents and purposes is a non-entity here frankly.

As for the quad, it wont be an alliance (there will be no mutual defense clause), but it will not be a failure. It works on a certain cooperation built on sharing doctrine practice...so should a war of that nature breakout where all parties are involved....there is basis to work upon regd the adversary weaknesses (esp given its logistical problems).

The American state is going to break apart soon and its Empire is in the process of failing. So with that, there is 40 million plus English people in America, who will form their own kingdom, which will ally with CANZUK. In the creation of the English Civilization as a whole. The question is how much territory can the English civilization hold onto in the coming decades to build up its population and culture once again. The English have already lost 60% of America/20% of English Canada. And are in the process of losing Australia and New Zealand because of migration. They English already handed over South Africa and Zimbabwe to the Chinese.

I have great trust and belief in my peoples abilities once united against a common enemy and within a common civilizational concept. However the Americans and Chinese are very powerful right now and you can't just change your entire geopolitical posture overnight it takes a decade at least.

The other issue is the British military is right now built for Britain, not force a global alliance structure. So we would need nuclear powered carriers, CATOBAR carriers, larger escort ships with greater range, upgraded bases and a much larger merchant fleet.
 

diatonicide

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Really interesting mate, enjoyed the read. I've been thinking about the shared history of our nations for a long time, there's a sensation from beyond the horizon that we are facets of one mind and our separation has caused a sort of national trauma. I'd like to see it go further though and involve the commonwealth as a whole.
One criticism I have of what you wrote is what appears to be a glossing over of our relationship with the USA. I disagree that they'd be fine with Canada becoming powerful or being involved in a (potentially) powerful group.
With that said, I don't think this union could be done through treaty or overt legal means. I think it will be realised in the way we've always done business: cooperation, trust, courtesy, business, competition, shared challenges but with the added benefit of a shared head of state.
 

RogerRanger

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Really interesting mate, enjoyed the read. I've been thinking about the shared history of our nations for a long time, there's a sensation from beyond the horizon that we are facets of one mind and our separation has caused a sort of national trauma. I'd like to see it go further though and involve the commonwealth as a whole.
One criticism I have of what you wrote is what appears to be a glossing over of our relationship with the USA. I disagree that they'd be fine with Canada becoming powerful or being involved in a (potentially) powerful group.
With that said, I don't think this union could be done through treaty or overt legal means. I think it will be realised in the way we've always done business: cooperation, trust, courtesy, business, competition, shared challenges but with the added benefit of a shared head of state.
From what I can see the main lobby group for CANZUK is a neo-liberal/neo-con group, which wants to further transvert the English civilization so it can't overthrow the American Empire, which is really just an alliance between the criminal class within the English civilization, foreign peoples, banking cartels and the Chinese ruling class, to overthrow and exploit the English hegemony, and transvert English culture and civilization from buoyancy to psychosis.

This is the national or civilizational trauma, that we are being repressed by foreign peoples and people who hate us, and we need to free ourselves from this. The answer is the English civilization as a whole rousing itself as one, that means the English/British diaspora around the world and the English nation within England. CANZUK is just another attempt to delay this and pervert its ends. Also when people talk of the west it is actually the English hegemony over the world.
 
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