TR Economy & Updates

[Huelague]

Are there any economists here?, it seems that no, many speak without knowing the secret figures of the Turkish central bank.
Turkey's economy is doing very well, production is rising, exports exploding just after China, while the countries of the euro zone and the USA are in full recession.

Does Jordan have a better economy than all 27 European countries, it looks like yes according to economists here
1 Jordanian Dinar =

1,2525196 Euro

View attachment 36782

@Nilgiri

 

[Huelague]

Yes partly. Economy is not that complex as many imagine, there are some basic things to why Turkish economy is vulnerable:
1) we have a chronic trade imbalance (every year our trade deficit is around $40bln)
2) our tourism income (that compensated a bit of the trade deficit) has gone down due to covid and less tourism


Compare this with a normal household, a person earns (just example) 5000TL a month, but with all his expenses are 5500TL. So every month he come 500TL short that he borrows on credit cards. At the end of the month he uses credit card b to pay off credit card A and the month after he uses credit card c to pay off credit card A and so on.

As long as he manages to roll over his debts and pays, no problem (but his economic situation is vulnerable!) . If this guy has one month of mishap and earns less than 5000TL, he will get into trouble. Now that's exactly what is happening to our economy.

Add gold imports and FDI to the trade deficit.

 

[Manomed]

And your pfp is who? Attila the Hun.

Its a Magyar from Atillas horde

 

[Nilgiri]

@Nilgiri

In addition to what "what" wrote here:

Just my 2 cents:
1. Eurozone is not in recession and
2. the value of a currency has a lot to do with stability and trust in its central bank.

I have talked about tiers regarding debt, investment (capital flows) etc before:

Well sure, but the philosophy doesn't follow what Turkey govt has been doing on foreign debt then.

I am simply saying if you want to orient the foreign flow in capital account (given current account will always have some reflection here), the hierarchy is roughly:

1) FDI
2) FPI
3) Private sector loans/bonds
4) Govt bonds and loans etc

There is tiers within FDI and FPI (i.e what does it provide that is new for turkey to absorb and get good at later)....but important thing is that the risk is bourne by the investor and not turkish taxpayers and public.

3) is a loan but at least risk is taken by a private turkish entity rather than public taxpayer.

Instead Turkish govt has gone for a huge intake of (4)...and there has been lot of uneccesary prestige projects and such...when really you need tier 1 stuff that leads to factories and jobs and exports.

So if it was truly serious about your philosophy of say low FDI (and low capital account activity)...it wouldnt do the way worse thing w.r.t foreign loans (foreign money it is taking on taxpayer's risk).

The best pragmatic step imo, is always to convert as much of (4) to the higher tiers as first step.

That is the reform that Turkey could have done already, it is still not too late...but it needs to move to do it.

Thus strict debt/GDP ratio is not something apples to apples between countries as the quality + structure of the debt and GDP matter a lot in the end.

That tier analysis along with:

A) total wealth level, market cap etc (things you leverage debt off rather than GDP which is output/year)
B) larger credibility, trust in the system
C) history of financial patterns/data and trends

...all determine such things as credit ratings that more or less constrain the overall maximum % debt/GDP ratio for each unique country.

A better credit rating (for the govt central bank), especially maintained over long time means you can ramp up external debt/GDP lot more.

So comparing debt/GDP and saying "its low compared to developed countries" thus ...."conspiracy involved" or "we could sustainably borrow lot more to get to developed country ratio here" are not valid comparisons.

I wouldn't suggest an inuit diet (its % composition of fat, meat etc) to a non-inuit outside harsh arctic living either. Contexts and reasons matter....they are rarely 1:1 comparable.

 

[Nilgiri]

BTW, no one (that knows something about something) here said the intrinsic exchange rate level with some other currency is the important number.

It does not matter if 1 USD =

1, 10, 100, 1000 XYZ

just like it doesnt matter that 1 dinar from wherever can buy 100 japanese yen (and clearly japan is not 100 times worse economy).

What matters is the change of this exchange rate over time.

If it loses significant % in just a few months/weeks/days....that is worrying for an economy....and exposes a clear underlying weakness there.

 

[Grand Charles]

I don't listen to someone with diriliş ertuğrul pfp damn medievals Turks never wore Black

no one asks your opinion, if you have arguments about written economics, otherwise avoid writing nonsense and intelligent things; but maybe I ask too much

 

[Anmdt]

in this graph we can see that Germany's first and best economy in the EU is falling.
Germany remains and will remain the first economy of all European countries, then comes France, the other European countries are only small economies without power.

View attachment 36846

Yeah man people in Germany is queuing up or cheaper bread as well i have seen it in Berlin. The bread price is up to 4-4.5 lira if the ministry was not forcing it at a fixed price. The Halk ekmek runs out in 10-15 minutes in my district, which is known to have medium-up income people in common. Just a year ago there used to be bread throughout the day. And i have asked the seller the supply is doubled in these weeks yet still runs out in quarter hour once it is delivered.

All food prices have risen by 30-40%, Egg is +40-50%, Meat and others expected to hit 100 tl/kg in a week. All Fruits and vegetables have updated their price by +20-30%. Milk has gone up by 40%.

TUIK has deliberately marking inflation low so that salaries of the government workers will not rise a lot. The real inflation by only fixing up the bucket of TUIK is 31%, while the true inflation calculated by a NGO is above 40%.

Anybody except the rich - burjuva has lost their income by 40% in the last 2 weeks. Prices have gone up but salaries have not. Salaries will never rise as the prices have risen thanks to the TUIK and President.

Health ministry can not pay the debt to the medical and pharmacy firms and they have cut the supplies even for the emergency operations. Cancer medication is to follow in a week.

The nation is deliberately being made poor and being thrown into the poverty, by intention.

 

[Grand Charles]

Yeah man people in Germany is queuing up or cheaper bread as well. The bread price is up to 4-4.5 lira if the ministry was not forcing it at a fixed price.

All food prices have risen by 30-40%, Egg is +40%, Meat and others expected to hit 100 tl/kg in a week. All Fruits and vegatables have updated their price by +20-30%.

TUIK has deliberately marking inflation low so that salaries of the government workers will not rise a lot. The real inflation by only fixing up the bucket of TUIK is 31%, while the true inflation calculated by a NGO is above 40%.

Anybody except the rich has lost their income by 40% in the last 2 weeks. Prices have gone up but salaries have not. Salaries will never rise as the prices have risen thanks to the TUIK and President.

Health ministry can not pay the debt to the medical and pharmacy firms and they have cut the supplies even for the emergency operations. Cancer medication is to follow in a week.

The nation is deliberately being made poor, by intention.

Do you work within the ministry to know what is the economy or do you report what you read on the net?.
Traders take advantage of the dollar to increase their income, the dollar takes 34% and prices increase by 100%.
Vegetables and fruits produced in Turkey also take 50% increases.
Everyone benefits.

 

[Anmdt]

Do you work within the ministry to know what is the economy or do you report what you read on the net?.
Traders take advantage of the dollar to increase their income, the dollar takes 34% and prices increase by 100%.
Vegetables and fruits produced in Turkey also take 50% increases.
Everyone benefits.

Check out the TUIK's bucket you will see the rises clearly. Go out to the street and you will see condition of the people.

You are apparently not living in Turkey and not knowing the condition here.

Nobody takes advantage of nothing because industries depend on imported material to produce export products. In last two weeks nobody is releasing their stock because the USD/TRY is not stable. What is happening is obvious, the government is aiming to make people poor to advantage from that.

 

[Grand Charles]

Check out the TUIK's bucket you will see the rises clearly. Go out to the street and you will see condition of the people.

You are apparently not living in Turkey and not knowing the condition here.

Nobody takes advantage of nothing because industries depend on imported material to produce export products. In last two weeks nobody is releasing their stock because the USD/TRY is not stable. What is happening is obvious, the government is aiming to make people poor to advantage from that.

there are problems in Turkey as in the rest of the countries of the planet, I do not have an economic problem, do you have any?.
ok I went out on the streets in Europe, people also complain, in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium everyone complains.
The disgruntled are always the ones who shout the most, the others we are at work and they do not complain.
and like everywhere in the world if you do not have abilities even with if you have diplomas you will be in the street complaining.

Nearly 20 million Japanese live in poverty but they don't cry or go out on the streets.

Japan’s growing ‘underclass’ creaks under weight of pandemic

The nation's wealth gap is widening as the health crisis drags on, disproportionately burdening women and the expanding pool of nonpermanent workers.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[Saithan]

You will gain nothing from comparing Turkey situations with Europe or any other country.

Those countries still have transparency and accountability. That doesn't exist in Turkey, not anymore. Only the peoples vote can change the government and President. Even that is very difficult because all mechanisms have been destroyed.

Look at Denmark. We have inflation too now and it's a big issue. But it's quite hillarious when comparing to Turkey. We should go out and party like crazy praising us lucky we're not Turkey. We're talking about adjusting consumable goods like food with 1-2 DKK max.

We have so much boom in workforce in some areas they can't find qualified personelle.

 

[Anmdt]

there are problems in Turkey as in the rest of the countries of the planet, I do not have an economic problem, do you have any?.
ok I went out on the streets in Europe, people also complain, in France, Spain, Italy, Belgium everyone complains.
The disgruntled are always the ones who shout the most, the others we are at work and they do not complain.
and like everywhere in the world if you do not have abilities even with if you have diplomas you will be in the street complaining.

Japan’s growing ‘underclass’ creaks under weight of pandemic

The nation's wealth gap is widening as the health crisis drags on, disproportionately burdening women and the expanding pool of nonpermanent workers.

www.japantimes.co.jp

We are not Japan, we don't have strong financial figures, well-kept treasury stock and well-established high-tech companies like they do. We lack liyakat, only one or two ministers are actually experienced in their field and knows what they are doing, the rest is only busy by making somebody rich but not serving to Nation.

At first place we lack a proper education system and human resources like other countries, low lira means you won't be able to fund proper people for proper positions, the resigns from defense companies are rapidly increasing in last two-three weeks, why? Because a mediocre company in Poland, UK offers them higher standards.

I have been to Japan, Germany, UK for business. I know very clearly their problems are much less than ours, they are not concerned about meeting the end of the month like people do in Turkey, their economy is predictable.

Why because in those countries, the companies either seek rights of the workers, provides sufficient salary even if their currency loses value. In Turkey the employer cares about getting someone to do the work for lower prices.

In those countries you can foresee your future, things are usually stable but in Turkey the ministers change semi-annually, President takes someone away and put someone else just like puppets, treasury and central bank is nothing but puppet of President, all ministers are not autonom but puppets of the President. Then how exactly can you expect to have less problems than those countries you are talking about?

 

[Anmdt]

“When one studies the history of money, one cannot help wondering why people should have put up for so long with governments exercising an exclusive power that was regularly used to exploit and defraud them.”

– Nobel Laureate economist Friedrich Hayek (1899-1992)

it's wrong, the truth is quite different, look at the graph of the US office

View attachment 36849

You don't know what you are even talking about right?

Turkey experienced what US experienced in 20-30 years just in 2 weeks. "Stability" is the key of ecomical development, otherwise you turn out to be some tribe-state of an African country.

 

[Blood raven]

The mental gymnastics people use to justify the current state of the economy is unbelievable.

 

[Anmdt]

It is not the Japanese government that invents but the young Japanese while our young Turks wait for others to use without working.

Well because Japan has a good educational system and those students are not seeking to leave the country but works in Japan with good life standards.

I work with companies for UK/Germany and my life standards was comparable to the colleagues from there until 2 years ago. Now my life standards with the current situation is not even comparable to a minimum-wage liver garbage collector.

Just Nintendo, Sony, Toyota is enough to confirm what I'm saying.

Also those companies receive a lot of investment and grow without fear because they rely on a stable economy that is run by sane people who knows what they are going.

 

[Grand Charles]

You don't know what you are even talking about right?

Turkey experienced what US experienced in 20-30 years just in 2 weeks. "Stability" is the key of ecomical development, otherwise you turn out to be some tribe-state of an African country.

you cannot compare yourself with the USA which has private companies like Pfizer, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Lockheed Martin, Boeing or Ford it is individuals who have created these companies.
The Turks slept until the last century and since then we have a change in industrial policy

 

[Anmdt]

It is not waiting for the economy to change and whichever party in Turkey will not change that.

At least it may not have been ruined by an old man and his son in law and his religious advisors, and his fellow who obeys him no matter what (or they know they will be sacked if they don't obey). It could have been stable and Turkey could have kept growing and receiving investments with a stable and predictable economy.

 

[Grand Charles]

Well because Japan has a good educational system and those students are not seeking to leave the country but works in Japan with good life standards.

I work with companies for UK/Germany and my life standards was comparable to the colleagues from there until 2 years ago. Now my life standards with the current situation is not even comparable to a minimum-wage liver garbage collector.

Also those companies receive a lot of investment and grow without fear because they rely on a stable economy that is run by sane people who knows what they are going.

the Japanese have more pride, like the Germans after the ruined Second World War but they rebuilt with an economy and a dead country, they did not flee.
In Turkey I have acquaintances who received a grant of 1 million Euro for a valid project by the government and today they are leaders in their sectors

 

[Anmdt]

you cannot compare yourself with the USA which has private companies like Pfizer, Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, Lockheed Martin, Boeing or Ford it is individuals who have created these companies.
The Turks slept until the last century and since then we have a change in industrial policy

And with an unstable and unpredictable economy Turkey will not achieve anything worth to mention.

 

[Nutuk]

No matter how big the economy of a country is, it all comes back to the basic.

If you spend more than you earn, your economy will be shitty. But if you earn more than you spend (like most European countries and China), you economy will be stable, no matter what fluctuations go on in the world.

Turkey's problem is the basic problem, we spend more than we earn: result we take debt and as the saying goes (Borçlu olanın boynu büküktür) this has consequenses