TR Economy & Updates

[Indos]

See my edit in above post

 

[Hexciter]

The largest mineral reserves in the history of the Republic were found in Elazig by the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA). Good luck to our beloved nation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498736286844211204

PS: A mixed reserve of copper, gold, zinc and cobalt which are really high quality and valuable metals.

 

[Lool]

Yup, as the days goes on, I start to believe in Robin Brooks' words more than ever!
As Robin Brooks stated before, the last rate cut by the TCMB from 16% to 14% was a grave mistake! Erdogan's policy will only benefit Turkey when the exchange rate is around the 8-8.5 level and I believe we already saw the effects of such policies in the Current account of Turkey in August, Spetember, and October where the current account was reportedly in Surplus and the foreign trade deficit reached as low as 1.4 billion dollars only! The current exchange rate is way toooo volatile and is making it way to expensive to import raw materials!
I guess an increase in the interest rate by 2% to 16% again or even make it to 17% till the end of this year and then decrease it gradually next year

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498947221965967360

 

[the]

Yup, as the days goes on, I start to believe in Robin Brooks' words more than ever!
As Robin Brooks stated before, the last rate cut by the TCMB from 16% to 14% was a grave mistake! Erdogan's policy will only benefit Turkey when the exchange rate is around the 8-8.5 level and I believe we already saw the effects of such policies in the Current account of Turkey in August, Spetember, and October where the current account was reportedly in Surplus and the foreign trade deficit reached as low as 1.4 billion dollars only! The current exchange rate is way toooo volatile and is making it way to expensive to import raw materials!
I guess an increase in the interest rate by 2% to 16% again or even make it to 17% till the end of this year and then decrease it gradually next year

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1498947221965967360

Inflation reached almost 55% in January. In theory, the CB would need to raise interest rates above the level of inflation in order yo have a lasting effect.

Unless of course some other external factors come in to play that would increase confidence in the Turkish economy, though with the war going on it would need to be quite substantial e.g. a sudden change in leadership.

 

[Lool]

Inflation reached almost 55% in January. In theory, the CB would need to raise interest rates above the level of inflation in order yo have a lasting effect.

Unless of course some other external factors come in to play that would increase confidence in the Turkish economy, though with the war going on it would need to be quite substantial e.g. a sudden change in leadership.

It would still be useless IMO
The main chronic problem in Turkey isnt interest rate but import dependence

Increasing the interest rate to 50% or even more would just create recession since prices will STILL be higher due to the war.... When the rate of production is less than the rate of demand, prices increase and this war literally crushed the rate of production

IMO, Turkey should just increase the interest rates so that it hits the 8-8.5 level in order to re-achieve the current account surplus trend and wait until rhe war reaches its end. While waiting, nationalising food chains should be a priority!

 

[Cypro]

It would still be useless IMO
The main chronic problem in Turkey isnt interest rate but import dependence

Increasing the interest rate to 50% or even more would just create recession since prices will STILL be higher due to the war.... When the rate of production is less than the rate of demand, prices increase and this war literally crushed the rate of production

IMO, Turkey should just increase the interest rates so that it hits the 8-8.5 level in order to re-achieve the current account surplus trend and wait until rhe war reaches its end. While waiting, nationalising food chains should be a priority!

The Chronic problem in Turkey is just 1 individual that ruins the economy and credibility. So neither interest rate nor trade deficit. Russia has a similar problem today..

 

[Lool]

The Chronic problem in Turkey is just 1 individual that ruins the economy and credibility. So neither interest rate nor trade deficit. Russia has a similar problem today..

You still dont understand it seems
Having a strong lira alone isnt going to suffice; as an example, just look at Tunisia for Gods sake
Throwing interest rates blindly isnt gonna solve bloody shit
I do stand with Erdogan's idea about interest rates; however, Iam against the method he used in executing it


It seems that after all the recent events, the Turks are still bloody oblivious to the main chronic problem which is import dependence. At the start of Covid, when supply chains was disrupted, most of the food-related products skyrocketed in price while general services stayed constant for a while. This is a clear indication that Turkey is heavily relying on imports for daily life to life activities. To treat Turkey's problems, Turks need to nationalise a lot of stuff


And about Russia, while Iam against Putin invading Ukraine as he doesnt have the right to invade another country willy-nilly, Putin's statements regarding Russia's security concerns are actually legit!!
In fact, I honestly believe that the main final broken straw that leaded to the war is Zelensiky's immaturity itself

 

[Cypro]

You still dont understand it seems
Having a strong lira alone isnt going to suffice; as an example, just look at Tunisia for Gods sake
Throwing interest rates blindly isnt gonna solve bloody shit
I do stand with Erdogan's idea about interest rates; however, Iam against the method he used in executing it


It seems that after all the recent events, the Turks are still bloody oblivious to the main chronic problem which is import dependence. At the start of Covid, when supply chains was disrupted, most of the food-related products skyrocketed in price while general services stayed constant for a while. This is a clear indication that Turkey is heavily relying on imports for daily life to life activities. To treat Turkey's problems, Turks need to nationalise a lot of stuff


And about Russia, while Iam against Putin invading Ukraine as he doesnt have the right to invade another country willy-nilly, Putin's statements regarding Russia's security concerns are actually legit!!
In fact, I honestly believe that the main final broken straw that leaded to the war is Zelensiky's immaturity itself

Ok genius..

 

[Ravenman]

A delegation of more than 100 senior Turkish businesspeople has arrived in Tel Aviv for meetings with their Israeli counterparts.

As Israel's President Isaac Herzog is about to meet with Turkish President Recep Erdogan, economic relations between the two countries are also warming up.

A delegation of more than 100 senior Turkish businesspeople has arrived in Tel Aviv for meetings with their Israeli counterparts and a cooperation memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed between the Turkish Exporters Assembly and Israel's Federation of International Chambers of Commerce.

Israel and Turkey sign business cooperation MoU

en.globes.co.il

 

[Nilgiri]

Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion

• Turkey’s leading economist, Mr. Mahfi Eğilmez estimated the cost of the “Ukraine Crisis” at $30 bn.
• I had independently calculated $35 bn.
• $30 bn is roughly 4% of annual national income.
• Such a loss would kick Turkey into a deep recession, as well as precipitate a Balance of Payments crisis.
• Why are we paying through our nose for a war which transpires across the Black Sea?
• Could 2022 turn into 2022 for Turkey (Watch the video to see what happened in 2002).


The break-down of the cost (Items cost at different values by economists I consulted)
Higher import bill: Energy, Commodities Lower exports and tourism revenues

Weaker currency—FX protected deposit insurance scheme

Indirect costs: Lower foreign debt roll-over ratio, the impact of inflation on consumer spending

=====================

What do folks think? @xenon5434 @Saithan @Anmdt et al.

 

[Zafer]

Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion

• Turkey’s leading economist, Mr. Mahfi Eğilmez estimated the cost of the “Ukraine Crisis” at $30 bn.
• I had independently calculated $35 bn.
• $30 bn is roughly 4% of annual national income.
• Such a loss would kick Turkey into a deep recession, as well as precipitate a Balance of Payments crisis.
• Why are we paying through our nose for a war which transpires across the Black Sea?
• Could 2022 turn into 2022 for Turkey (Watch the video to see what happened in 2002).


The break-down of the cost (Items cost at different values by economists I consulted)
Higher import bill: Energy, Commodities Lower exports and tourism revenues

Weaker currency—FX protected deposit insurance scheme

Indirect costs: Lower foreign debt roll-over ratio, the impact of inflation on consumer spending

=====================

What do folks think? @xenon5434 @Saithan @Anmdt et al.

Bullshit as usual.
Fortune telling at best.
He never considers precautions.

 

[Saithan]

Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion

• Turkey’s leading economist, Mr. Mahfi Eğilmez estimated the cost of the “Ukraine Crisis” at $30 bn.
• I had independently calculated $35 bn.
• $30 bn is roughly 4% of annual national income.
• Such a loss would kick Turkey into a deep recession, as well as precipitate a Balance of Payments crisis.
• Why are we paying through our nose for a war which transpires across the Black Sea?
• Could 2022 turn into 2022 for Turkey (Watch the video to see what happened in 2002).


The break-down of the cost (Items cost at different values by economists I consulted)
Higher import bill: Energy, Commodities Lower exports and tourism revenues

Weaker currency—FX protected deposit insurance scheme

Indirect costs: Lower foreign debt roll-over ratio, the impact of inflation on consumer spending

=====================

What do folks think? @xenon5434 @Saithan @Anmdt et al.

Let’s hope it’s not more.
You’ve already pointed out how China is painfully aware of its wealth relying of western trading partners. And that is even more true for Turkey.

Turkey having lost many or our western investors and transcended to. Cheapskate tourists that want all inclusive add to that how our survival pretty much relies on export to EU. With 5 mio refugees is in a pickle.

AKP and RTE brownnosing ppl can amount to saying “lies” because they live in their own fantasy world but they can’t come with solid arguments.

They’ll hold on to their fanatic devotion to RTE and AKP just to hang on to power.

 

[Lool]

Bullshit as usual.
Fortune telling at best.
He never considers precautions.

I dont know what the video said but it is true that the lira is under extremely heavy pressure

Erdo's current plan depended upon decreased electricity usage in the summer along with cheap gas of around 60$ to a barrel. This shit is no more

Rn, the factors affecting the lira are
-Extremely high oil prices
-Reduced tourism revenues since Russians and Ukranians constitute about 20-30% of tourists
-Increased raw material costs which will cause prices to soar again

Rn the temporary solution is to increase the interest rates back to 25%; in order to metigate the increasing prices. A tough pill to swallow but it is necessary

And I dont wanna enter into politics, but If Erdo doesnt realise the grave mistake that he is making, then it is his own fault that he loses the election tbh! At that point there will be no difference between Erdo and the rotten CHP's Kilicdaroglu and Imamoglu

Sometimes, you need to make some sacrifices to gain a greater reward and that means stabilising the economy by interest rate rise until shit calms down

 

[Lool]

Let’s hope it’s not more.
You’ve already pointed out how China is painfully aware of its wealth relying of western trading partners. And that is even more true for Turkey.

Normally, you learn from the current situation and start to divert your wealth from the West so that they dont own you by the balls
For those who dont know, China benifited greatly from the current war as they now know how the US will react when China takes Taiwan or any other country and will start to make preparations
The fact that your response seems to state that "our wealth is heavily relied on the West so lets just be good boys and obey the orders given to us" is a mentality that will revert Turkey back to the chaotic days of the last 50 years of the Ottomans where everything they had, depended on the West and IAM 100% sure you saw how that did occur

Turkey having lost many or our western investors and transcended to. Cheapskate tourists that want all inclusive add to that how our survival pretty much relies on export to EU. With 5 mio refugees is in a pickle.

While I do agree that Western investors did decrease in numbers, I would also like to state that the first decline did occur the moment Turkey canceled their Kurdish peace bullshit. In other words, Europeans were aiding Turkish economy as long as you obey and follow what you are told to do
And as for tourists, before the COVID pandemic, Turkey recorded the highest tourist revenue ever in 2019; supposedly when Western tourists were on the decline. Tourists are tourists; as long as they pay, everything is fine

Moreover, expect more Western tourists in the coming years since the West is being exposed to severe inflation so they will shift to Turkey as it is cheap yet high quality

 

[TheInsider]

Turkiye might profit from this war in the mid and long term. Turkiye can buy Russian oil and gas with a huge price cut. Türkiye can also aid the reconstruction efforts of Ukraine and can sell advanced military products to Ukraine. Businesses and businessmen who fled Russia can also relocate to Turkiye and can bring capital, jobs, and expertise with them.

 

[what]

In short term there will be less business with both countries, so definitely not good for the economy.

Turkey can still do business with Russia in ruble, if they can afford it of course. There will be lots of new export opportunities.
But will the Russians be able to buy it? If so when will their economy recover? Same story of course for Ukraine.

 

[Zafer]

Barter trade with Russia and Ukraine should come back.

 

[Cypro]

Turkiye might profit from this war in the mid and long term. Turkiye can buy Russian oil and gas with a huge price cut. Türkiye can also aid the reconstruction efforts of Ukraine and can sell advanced military products to Ukraine. Businesses and businessmen who fled Russia can also relocate to Turkiye and can bring capital, jobs, and expertise with them.

If a Ukraine like we know* still exists after the war, and if Turkey could continue to do business with Russia as before.. Soon Russia may face sanctions similar to Iran's, and doing business might bring sanctions too.. at least doing new business or expanding the existing one. Ukraine will be very poor after the war

 

[Xenon54]

Ukraine Crisis Could Cost Turkey $30 Billion

• Turkey’s leading economist, Mr. Mahfi Eğilmez estimated the cost of the “Ukraine Crisis” at $30 bn.
• I had independently calculated $35 bn.
• $30 bn is roughly 4% of annual national income.
• Such a loss would kick Turkey into a deep recession, as well as precipitate a Balance of Payments crisis.
• Why are we paying through our nose for a war which transpires across the Black Sea?
• Could 2022 turn into 2022 for Turkey (Watch the video to see what happened in 2002).


The break-down of the cost (Items cost at different values by economists I consulted)
Higher import bill: Energy, Commodities Lower exports and tourism revenues

Weaker currency—FX protected deposit insurance scheme

Indirect costs: Lower foreign debt roll-over ratio, the impact of inflation on consumer spending

=====================

What do folks think? @xenon5434 @Saithan @Anmdt et al.

I expect a 2002 style recession very soon, the balloon is still inflating, im surprised it didnt burst yet.

 

[Nilgiri]

Let’s hope it’s not more.
You’ve already pointed out how China is painfully aware of its wealth relying of western trading partners. And that is even more true for Turkey.

Turkey having lost many or our western investors and transcended to. Cheapskate tourists that want all inclusive add to that how our survival pretty much relies on export to EU. With 5 mio refugees is in a pickle.

AKP and RTE brownnosing ppl can amount to saying “lies” because they live in their own fantasy world but they can’t come with solid arguments.

They’ll hold on to their fanatic devotion to RTE and AKP just to hang on to power.

TR Lira is taking a hammering again, because of the earlier depletions that have led to them being insufficient for unexpected rainy days like we are going to have this year.

It is approaching 15 Lira to USD now (the earlier peak was around 16.8)....because of the inelastic imports (energy, commodities) getting major supply choked by the new situation.

I expect a 2002 style recession very soon, the balloon is still inflating, im surprised it didnt burst yet.

It was put off by the FX insurance scheme thing. But it means thats gonna be extra bad when all of that comes due to the govt.