TR Economy & Updates

[Zafer]

I don’t live in Turkey. But what I have heard from people there is, they can’t afford the simplest foods. The real inflation is by ~100%.

Banana 15 ₺
Bell-pepper (good quality) 15₺
Eggplant 13₺

Does not look like too high.
When you go to the marketplace before 4 pm you get higher prices, when you go after 4 pm you get discounted prizes, overall around 30%.

 

[Huelague]

IMF 2022 PPP GDP per capita estimates, selected countries
Chart is prepared by myself

View attachment 51241

List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Where is Luxembourg? It has the highest per capita.

 

[Huelague]

Banana 15 ₺
Bell-pepper (good quality) 15₺
Eggplant 13₺

Does not look like too high.
When you go to the marketplace before 4 pm you get higher prices, when you go after 4 pm you get discounted prizes, overall around 30%.

They can change the price within a day??!!

 

[Huelague]

Banana 15 ₺
Bell-pepper (good quality) 15₺
Eggplant 13₺

Does not look like too high.
When you go to the marketplace before 4 pm you get higher prices, when you go after 4 pm you get discounted prizes, overall around 30%.

We need average price in Turkish markets. Of standard fruits, vegetables, milk products, meats, eggs, wheat products as legumes and many more.

 

[Zafer]

They can change the price within a day??!!

They can put up any price they want depending on how big the buying crowd is.
This is street market, set up once a week in almost every neighborhood.

 

[Zafer]

We need average price in Turkish markets. Of standard fruits, vegetables, milk products, meats, eggs, wheat products as legumes and many more.

Government has started requiring markets with locations more than 200 to report their prices to the Ministry daily starting just recently.

 

[Huelague]

They can put up any price they want depending on how big the buying crowd is.
This is street market, set up once a week in almost ever neighborhood.

This should not be allowed. Price has to be validity for minimum one week.

 

[Zafer]

This should not be allowed. Price has to be validity for minimum one week.

This is fresh produce market and the harvest change every day. But staple processed products can be regulated if required. Greece started doing it. We can do it too if we definitely must.

 

[TheInsider]

The economic situation in Turkiye is bad and I expect it to stay like that in the short to mid-term. Inflation will fall due to the base effect but a big min wage increase means the inflation will continue.

Let's assume that a good is worth 100TL at the start of the year and worth 200TL at the end of the year. It is a %100 increase in a year which means yearly inflation is %100.

Now next year we have a good worth 200 TL and let's assume by the end of the year this good is worth 300TL. It is again a 100 TL increase but that translates to a %50 yearly inflation.
I expect TUIK inflation to stay around %40-50 and real inflation to say around %60-70

I don't expect a big increase in the FX exchange rate. KKM (exchange rate protected accounts) is successful and interestingly people start to quit KKM(because it is not profitable anymore due to the stability of the dollar/TL ratio) but they are not buying dollars instead they are either buying gold, property, or investing in the stock exchange.

Shortly
The dollar is not gaining value so buying dollar or staying at KKM is meaningless.
Interest rate is low so bank accounts are useless.
Inflation is high and will likely remain high in the short to mid-term
The only way to gain something is either the stock exchange or valuable metals, commodities, or property.

 

[Lool]

The economic situation in Turkiye is bad and I expect it to stay like that in the short to mid-term. Inflation will fall due to the base effect but a big min wage increase means the inflation will continue.

I did read in a daily sabah article that if the minimum wage is increased again, then the competitiveness of the Turkish businesses will take a severe hit.... is that true?

I don't expect a big increase in the FX exchange rate. KKM (exchange rate protected accounts) is successful and interestingly people start to quit KKM(because it is not profitable anymore due to the stability of the dollar/TL ratio) but they are not buying dollars instead they are either buying gold, property, or investing in the stock exchange.

Shortly
The dollar is not gaining value so buying dollar or staying at KKM is meaningless.
Interest rate is low so bank accounts are useless.
Inflation is high and will likely remain high in the short to mid-term
The only way to gain something is either the stock exchange or valuable metals, commodities, or property.

That is actually a good thing
I myself didnt like the KKM, regardless of whether it was successful or not, since it placed a MASSIVE strain on the govt budget. I do remember reading that the govt was paying an extravagant amount to the FX accounts due to devaluation in the lira. With the interest rates low and the KKM being less attractive, this will ease the govt budget a bit

And having ppl gain money by investing in Turkish stocks is actually a good thing. BIST 100 increased from around 1900 to more than 5000 in less than a year. The returns are huge and Turkish businesses benefit so its a win-win for everybody

 

[Crush716]

I did read in a daily sabah article that if the minimum wage is increased again, then the competitiveness of the Turkish businesses will take a severe hit.... is that true?

That is actually a good thing
I myself didnt like the KKM, regardless of whether it was successful or not, since it placed a MASSIVE strain on the govt budget. I do remember reading that the govt was paying an extravagant amount to the FX accounts due to devaluation in the lira. With the interest rates low and the KKM being less attractive, this will ease the govt budget a bit

And having ppl gain money by investing in Turkish stocks is actually a good thing. BIST 100 increased from around 1900 to more than 5000 in less than a year. The returns are huge and Turkish businesses benefit so its a win-win for everybody

1. Don’t read Sabah. They are biased
2. Yes it will be devastating for all Turkish businesses if/when the minimum wage goes up
3. Your solution for regular Joe’s of Turkiye is to invest in the stock market with the money they don’t have? Turkish citizens in Turkiye can’t even afford to pay rent, bills, buy clothes for their children and basic groceries. But you expect them to invest in stock market and make huge gains? Brilliant mate. Problem solved. Everyone start investing in stocks first thing in the morning please

 

[Lool]

1. Don’t read Sabah. They are biased
2. Yes it will be devastating for all Turkish businesses if/when the minimum wage goes up
3. Your solution for regular Joe’s of Turkiye is to invest in the stock market with the money they don’t have? Turkish citizens in Turkiye can’t even afford to pay rent, bills, buy clothes for their children and basic groceries. But you expect them to invest in stock market and make huge gains? Brilliant mate. Problem solved. Everyone start investing in stocks first thing in the morning please

Iam not saying that it is the solution
Iam saying that it is better for those ppl to invest in stocks and aid businesses in a symbiotic relationship rather than putting money in the KKM scheme and get free money. I still stand by my belief that Turkey's main problem is energy and that is it; certainly it isnt the only problem, but it constitutes around 60-70% of the problem

And honestly, in this day and age, there is nothing called a "biased" news site. All news are biased and most exist to serve one political faction or the other; if you wanna know good stuff about the govt, read pro-govt shit and if you wanna know bad stuff about the govt, read the anti-govt shit
It is quite rare to find credible neutral news outlet in this day and age

 

[B_A]

I will come back to this comment later.

Whats crazy about that argument, its a fact that Turkey has a brain drain, many insiders within industries, including those from defence industry can attest that Turkey has lost many engineers to the west.
Nobody said its main reason for the problems, if anything then its the symptom of those big problems, the reasons are somewhere else, the main reason is in the palace.

Turkey is not only importing gas but oil too, apart from that Turkey is not the only country that lacks natural energy ressources, there are such as Japan, Korea, Germany and basically major rest of europe lacking those too, why is Turkey only the one suffering a trade imbalance?
Simply because Turkey does not produce high tech goods (assembling TV's and Refridgerators is not high tech). Turkey needs to produce tonns of good to equalize the high tech goods that it imports.

So is brain drain an issue nor or not, you should decide.

You sound like Erdogan who also thinks he knows better than most respectable economists, now see the result.

Most places dont have hyper inflation though.

''Cheap'' is not the biggest factor for a company to resettle somewhere, even bigger are political stability and human ressources, Turkish companies are losing their competitiveness on global comparison since 2013 hitting a new all time low last year. The first dip in 2001-2002 can be attributed to the rise of Chinese companies but the slow dip from 2013 onwards is 100% our own governments fault, 2013 is the famous year where the long last political unstability and Turkeys drift towards an authocratic pariah state started.

View attachment 51176



Should we be thankful for this temporary ''luck'' that Turkey had now?

Now to your first first comment, you basically repeat what Erdogan says day and night, the very person who is single handedly responsible for the mess the country is in today but others comments fail to see the problems?

japan and korea are in trade deficit because of gas price now

TV's and Refridgerators are not the problem,the problem is we dont have a world brand likes LG or Panasonic,

 

[Xenon54]

japan and korea are in trade deficit because of gas price now

TV's and Refridgerators are not the problem,the problem is we dont have a world brand likes LG or Panasonic,

Thats the quintessence of my post, im not saying we need only high tech industry, we need a mixed production based economy but we need to compensate for the high tech imports somehow and only way is to specialize yourself in some high tech field.

A million döner shops can not compensate for the products that a brand like Samsung produces and exports to rest of the world.

 

[Baklava Consumer]

I just watched the parliamentary debate on the national budget. Everyone is fighting, shouting, cussing. The problems have reached such an extent that Parliamentarians' only option is to shout because they have no power under this presidential system. Turkey is too big and too complicated to be run by ONE man. Autocracy may work in a country like Singapore, but Turkey is too big and too complicated - people in Trabzon have different problems to people in Izmir.

Freedom House -

Turkey: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House

See the Freedom in the World 2022 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Turkey.

freedomhouse.org

Freedom
Turkey gets a score of 32/100 on Freedom in 2022.
"Not Free"

Turkey's score in 2017 was 38/100.
"Partly Free"

You need a score of 70/100 and over to be considered "Free".

World Justice Project - https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/country/2022/Turkey/
Rule of Law
Turkey scored 0.42 out of 1, when it comes to rule of law in 2022. For comparison USA scored 0.73, Germany 0.83.

In 2016 Turkey scored 0.46 on rule of law, we have decreased since then - rule of law has gotten worse.

International investors look at these graphics and they invest accordingly, when I see people shouting in Parliament, I'm not surprised because this system is broken, there is no justice, the newcomers in 2023 need to revamp the whole system.

 

[Huelague]

I just watched the parliamentary debate on the national budget. Everyone is fighting, shouting, cussing. The problems have reached such an extent that Parliamentarians' only option is to shout because they have no power under this presidential system. Turkey is too big and too complicated to be run by ONE man. Autocracy may work in a country like Singapore, but Turkey is too big and too complicated - people in Trabzon have different problems to people in Izmir.

Freedom House -

Turkey: Freedom in the World 2022 Country Report | Freedom House

See the Freedom in the World 2022 score and learn about democracy and freedom in Turkey.

freedomhouse.org

Turkey gets a score of 32/100 on Freedom in 2022.
"Not Free"

Turkey's score in 2017 was 38/100.
"Partly Free"

You need a score of 70/100 and over to be considered "Free".

View attachment 51257

World Justice Project - https://worldjusticeproject.org/rule-of-law-index/country/2022/Turkey/
Rule of Law
Turkey scored 0.42 out of 1, when it comes to rule of law in 2022. For comparison USA scored 0.73, Germany 0.83.

In 2016 Turkey scored 0.46 on rule of law, we have decreased since then - rule of law has gotten worse.

View attachment 51258

International investors look at these graphics and they invest accordingly, when I see people shouting in Parliament, I'm not surprised because this system is broken, there is no justice, the newcomers in 2023 need to revamp the whole system.

The old system doesnt work. FULLSTOP. We need one strong Man, controlled by parliament.

 

[Baklava Consumer]

The old system doesnt work. FULLSTOP. We need one strong Man, controlled by parliament.

Is that how it works in Germany as well? One big Kaiser controls all???
Is that why you live in Germany and not Turkey?


Germany ranks 0.83 on rule of law, Turkey ranks 0.42
that's probably why you live in Germany...go get a reality check.

 

[Huelague]

Is that how it works in Germany as well? One big Kaiser controls all???
Is that why you live in Germany and not Turkey?


Germany ranks 0.83 on rule of law, Turkey ranks 0.42
that's probably why you live in Germany...go get a reality check.

Germany is not Turkey. You cant compare both. If we have a "problem" on rule of law, it should be solved. Anyway, what works for Germany, doesnt work for us.
Why I am living in Germany? I am living here in 3.th generation, my grandfather came here in the 60's.
You can compare our system with France.

 

[Baklava Consumer]

Germany is not Turkey. You cant compare both. If we have a "problem" on rule of law, it should be solved. Anyway, what works for Germany, doesnt work for us.
Why I am living in Germany? I am living here in 3.th generation, my grandfather came here in the 60's.
You can compare our system with France.

France ranks on 0.73 on rule of law (WJP)
France ranks 89/100 on Freedoms (Freedom House)

Turkey ranks 0.42 on rule of law (WJP)
Turkey ranks 32/100 on Freedoms (Freedom House)

An average French person earns $43,500 per year, an average Turk earns $9,500.
The writing is on the wall, all Turkish politicians know what they have to do.
I can't wait until we get of rid Erdo - he is pure incompetence.

 

[Baryshx]

I listened to a few discussions about the minimum wage today. There is an expectation between 7800-8500 tl, which corresponds to somewhere between 420-460 dollars at the current exchange rate. This means that on January 1, 2016, the highest minimum wage level in the history of the republic in dollar terms, 442 dollars, will be reached again.

I know that people on low incomes need this increase and this is not the aspect of the problem I want to discuss.

The impact of such a large increase on inflation could also be large. Even if additional measures are taken to ensure that it does not have a big impact on production costs, it will certainly have an impact on the employment momentum. Moreover, at the same time, there is also an EYT regulation and millions of people are getting early retirement.

Employees who somehow started their insurance records 25 years ago will be able to retire. These people will continue to work in different fields with small deductions and will have double earnings. In the new year, unskilled workers or those who take a low-level job with no experience will receive up to double their salary with minimum living allowances.

But the purchasing power of, for example, an engineer with 10 years of work experience will erode. Most of the employees with 10-20 years of experience, who make up the backbone of the labor force, are in the private sector and the increases they will receive will not be in line with the minimum wage increase this year, as they were last year. The middle-income group earning salaries in TL is gradually disappearing. This is a very dangerous situation for an economy.

Everyone is talking about the minimum wage and those who threaten votes for early retirement, but unfortunately, no party can voice the economic dilemma faced by the main element of our labor force.

In the near future, it seems that everyone in the country will get the minimum wage or a little higher. The road we are on is not a good direction at all. House and vehicle prices, as well as natural gas, electricity, water, food and beverage prices, increased 3-5 times, but salaries increased 2 and 2.5 times. Teacher, officer, nurse, etc. occupations approached the minimum wage. After that, the educated people in the country say why do they migrate abroad, it is a brain-disabled question...

This is an ignorant, donkey, manipulative, cringe question. People have to think about their future. Not to mention the injustice in the country, nepotism, favor, bribery, and negativities in the rights of people and workers. Every day fighting, marginalization, targeting, and ugly political discourses have come to an unbearable level. This will end in a social explosion and it will not be good for our country.