TR Economy & Updates

Saithan

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With the devaluation of the lira, what are the chances that Turkey resorts to asking China for economic help?

I hope this is not the case given China's reputation with debt-trap diplomacy, and I would imagine a number of sanctions from the west would come with it.
The current government has ruled out early elections so It's anyones guess.

Previous minister of economy Babacan said the center pillar has been destroyed which I assume means our ability to stem/stop the downward trend.
 

Deliorman

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If they go for early elections the chance to get slapped hard in the face is very big seeing how the economy is going right now- Istanbul elections were just the begging of their end.

Their best strategy is to wait until 2023 in hope that things with the economy miraculously get better which I don’t see to happen. They don’t see it happening too (but will promise it to their voters anyway) so they will squeeze the lemon until the last drop of juice they can get and after that run away abroad.
 

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If they go for early elections the chance to get slapped hard in the face is very big seeing how the economy is going right now- Istanbul elections were just the begging of their end.

Their best strategy is to wait until 2023 in hope that things with the economy miraculously get better which I don’t see to happen. They don’t see it happening too (but will promise it to their voters anyway) so they will squeeze the lemon until the last drop of juice they can get and after that run away abroad.
Turkish people are not fools. We don't rate the government by current status of our economy by itself alone. We compare our economy to other nations' economies and determine our standing. And we take into account a dozen more criteria when we evaluate the success of our government. Unlike you guys who take things by their face value.
 

Blood raven

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So guys we did it, 1 dollar equals 8 lira and 1 euro equals 9.55 lira. From here on its a freefall for the lira, it's a matter of time before we hit 2 digits
 

Saithan

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BIST lost a lot today, and all that instability because RTE can’t keep his mouth shut. A currency that loses so much value is not a stable object to trade in. Gold is going through the roof, again.
 

Bogeyman 

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While I think it's good that they employ more ppl, if the products are coming/being sent from China then I wish more focus and support are given to similar companies in Turkey.

Turkish products will reach world markets more easily with 'logistics centers'

In his statement, Trade Minister Ruhsar Pekcan stated that they aim to increase the efficiency of the supply and distribution chains of exporters and ensure that export products are delivered to new markets in the most efficient way, and in this context, creating the necessary infrastructure facilities that will increase export performance in important markets is among the priorities of the Ministry.

Stating that they are working towards the establishment of international logistics centers (YDLM) in line with this goal, Pekcan reminded that the Decision on Supporting Foreign Logistics Centers was published in the Official Gazette on October 14.

In accordance with the decision, 5 million dollars for the installation, investment, license and permit expenses of the cooperation organizations for the activation of YDLM, the rent, commission and usage expenses of the units they opened, 3 million dollars per year, advertising, promotion and marketing activities, Pekcan stated that 700 thousand dollars of annual expenses and employment expenditures can be supported and that 100 thousand dollars will be provided annually for logistics expenses such as customs clearance, inventory management and storage of the users who will be located in these centers.

Pointing out that the logistics centers covered by the Ministry will be supported for 5 years, Pekcan stated that those with an average capacity utilization rate of at least 50 percent in the last 3 years will be given an additional period of up to 5 years, and the total support period cannot exceed 10 years.

It will be established in strategic regions, will increase the competitive power

Stating that YDLMs are aimed to consist of areas that offer services such as storage, loading and unloading, handling, shipping, load consolidation and division related to Turkish export products, Pekcan used the following statements:

"Turkish products aimed at delivering the fastest and most cost-effective to overseas markets overseas logistics centers in Africa, America, Europe, and Russia are planning to establish in strategic regions in the Far East. Turkey products with logistic centers will be reached in an easier way into new markets. Turkey's international These centers, which will increase the competitiveness in the markets, will assume the role of distribution centers and sustainable export growth will be achieved with these centers. We will establish the logistics centers that we aim to establish as soon as possible to serve the demands and needs of our exporters. "

"YDLMs will play an important role in the development of e-export"

Pointing out that the basis of a successful e-commerce strategy is the provision of an effective logistics service as well as competitive prices, Minister Pekcan stated that logistics also plays a key role in strategic pricing and customer satisfaction for e-commerce.

Ruhsar Pekcan, noting that it is envisaged to provide services and support to many logistics-related issues that Turkish e-commerce initiatives may need in logistics centers planned to be established abroad in this context, said, "In addition, YDLMs increase the logistics capabilities and capabilities of e-commerce enterprises, whose share in global trade is rapidly increasing. In this respect, YDLMs will also play an important role in the development and acceleration of our country's e-exports with digitalized solutions. " found the assessment.
 

Anmdt

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Turkish lira sets a new record low, 1 USD wanders around 8.14 TRY.
I know someone is craving for "sanctions" so he can cover the blow up in economy.
 

Vergennes

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Turkey’s lira hits another record low as rift with France deepens​


Turkey’s lira sank to yet another record low on Monday as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Turks to boycott of French goods, adding to a mounting list of geopolitical spats increasing investor concerns.

 

Saithan

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Turkey’s lira hits another record low as rift with France deepens​


Turkey’s lira sank to yet another record low on Monday as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on Turks to boycott of French goods, adding to a mounting list of geopolitical spats increasing investor concerns.

Well we'll see if this will lead to something like free fall. Double digits here we come.

As I said a currency that fluctuates this much is not reliable for trading.
 

Nilgiri

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Well we'll see if this will lead to something like free fall. Double digits here we come.

As I said a currency that fluctuates this much is not reliable for trading.

What is quite concerning is Turkey has lost about 10 billion dollars in forex reserve in last 2 months (I assume some portion of this to defend the Lira and another portion the increasing debt repayments).

TR. Total forex incl gold. (USD):

July = 90 billion
August = 84 billion
September = 80 billion


This is somewhat a precipitous decline as especially in liquid forex, what used to be about 46 billion dollars is now 36 billion left for currency defense + loan repayment.

Gold hard reserve is about 42 billion dollars on top of it, but Turkey ofc would not want to tap into that unless for last resort.

This is for GDP denominator of around 750 billion USD....where in Turkey level of development one would expect an ideal forex range of around 150+ billion....so Turkey has not done well in its foreign balance of payments relative to its GDP and development level (i.e exports, investment, loans etc).

The overall (Current account i.e trade) numbers situation was looking fine on paper:


i.e net balance of +5 billion and whatever turkey gets from net remittance on top too.

This indicates something to do with systematic unhealthy capital account pressure (loans and investment flight?).
 

Saithan

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Forecast:
1603876794022.png
 

Zafer

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Forecast:
View attachment 5027
There is a high regard to the opinion of foreign observers by our half baked Turkish forum members who can not even participate a protest of the spearhead hostile Macron man. So becoming.
 
S

Sinan

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The lira will hit 8.3 today ...
As of now its 8.29. Government doing every possible thing wrong.


Erdogan says, outer forces are attacking our economy as usual.
 

Costin84

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As of now its 8.29. Government doing every possible thing wrong.


Erdogan says, outer forces are attacking our economy as usual.
He did his best to secure the lira s downfall
 

Ryder

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As of now its 8.29. Government doing every possible thing wrong.


Erdogan says, outer forces are attacking our economy as usual.

The economy is another way of warfare.
 

Deliorman

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There is a high regard to the opinion of foreign observers by our half baked Turkish forum members who can not even participate a protest of the spearhead hostile Macron man. So becoming.

What should people do against Macron to make you happy and make Macron feel threatened? Reis asked for people to stop buying French products so now Turks won’t buy French cars, perfumes, clothes and accessories... Not that they can afford them anyway but let’s call it a “boycott” instead of “poverty”. :D

DFB744F3-FA85-4432-8887-F72C7BA0F9DD.jpeg



ps I will ritually burn that later... let’s hope that the Dollar crashes down hard tomorrow after that. 😬
 

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