TR Economy & Updates

[Constan]

Government releases 3-year roadmap for Turkish economy​

ANKARA​

Turkey’s economy is projected to expand 9% this year and grow a further 5% in 2022, according to the country’s medium-term economic program published in the Official Gazette late on Sept. 5.

The government is aiming for growth of 5.5% in 2023 and 2024, according to the three-year program, while the average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target is 5.3%.

Turkey’s GDP jumped 21.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, the highest annual growth rate since 1999, according to official data released last week.

Commenting on the program, Treasury and Finance Minister Lütfi Elvan said on Twitter: “We will further strengthen macroeconomic stability for durable growth led by the private sector.”

Turkey’s annual inflation, which climbed to 19.25% in August from 18.95% in July, is projected to hit 16.2% by the end of this year.

It is expected to fall to 9.8% by the end of 2022, according to the new economic program, while the year-end targets for 2023 and 2024 are 8% and 7.6%, respectively.

The current account deficit to GDP ratio is projected to be 2.2% next year, further narrowing to 1.5% in 2023 and 1% in 2024.

The GDP per capita is expected to surpass $11,000 by 2024, according to the program. The figure will be $9,947 in 2022, $10,703 in 2023, and $11,465 in 2024.

The government is aiming for the GDP to exceed $850 billion in 2022, before hitting $975 billion in 2023 and topping $1 trillion in 2024.

Turkey's GDP with current prices is projected to be around $801 billion this year, while it stood at $717 billion in 2020, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.

The U.S. dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate will be around 8.30 by the end of this year and increase to 9.27 in 2022, 9.77 in 2023, and 10.26 in 2024, according to the program.

The country’s exports target is $230.9 billion for 2022 and grows to $255 billion by 2024.

Turkey’s budget deficit, which has widened due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, is projected to increase in the coming few years.

It is expected to be 230 billion Turkish liras ($27.7 billion) this year, with a target of 278.4 billion liras ($30 billion) for 2022, 290.2 billion ($29.7 billion) in 2023, and 294 billion liras ($28.7 billion) in 2024.

The unemployment rate in Turkey, which stood at 10.6% in June, will hit 12.6% by the end of this year, according to the program’s estimates.

The government aims to bring it down to 12% next year, 11.4% in 2023, and 10.9% in 2024.

Government releases 3-year roadmap for Turkish economy - Latest News

Turkey’s economy is projected to expand 9% this year and grow a further 5% in 2022, according to the country’s medium-term economic program published in the Official Gazette late on Sept. 5.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

______________________________

This is called a fairy tale for the desperate. If it works they can get some votes out of this sort of things. Actions speak louder than words.

Since that's the case the citizen will look at "what do we I get out of this here and now."

"What's the price of food next week."

Government will continue spouting their propaganda, but the citizen is smart. They'll close their ears and look at the prices.

That's all it'll take to get a new government.

So we are not going to see any recovery from now till the election.

 

[the]

The government is aiming for growth of 5.5% in 2023 and 2024, according to the three-year program, while the average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target is 5.3%.

The government is aiming for the GDP to exceed $850 billion in 2022, before hitting $975 billion in 2023 and topping $1 trillion in 2024.

Turkey's GDP with current prices is projected to be around $801 billion this year, while it stood at $717 billion in 2020, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.

So without adjusting for inflation, they expect an increase of (801-717 = $84bn) in GDP, or around 11.7% increase.......even though they project GDP to expand by "9% this year".

Additionally, they expect around +6% increase in GDP in 2022 to $850 bn, and then a 14.7% increase in GDP during an election year (to $975bn) ????

All while, the Turkish Lira is expected to depreciate (reaching around 10 TL to 1 USD by 2023), leading to even greater inflation. And without increasing interest rates, it seems near impossible that inflation will be down to 8% in a matter of 2 years.......

I wonder how they are planning on reaching such high levels of GDP expansion as well as reducing inflation - without increasing interest rates........

 

[Deliorman]

I can't even remember how many such roadmaps and plans were announced by Erdogan and Albayrak in the last few years with promises and targets for a better future... all of which didn't happen and won't happen.

In the end of the day people measure how good the economy is by how fat their pockets are and how full their fridge is and for the big majority the results are bad.

 

[mulj]

Food prizes are increasing worldwide because of shortages, its a global problem.

The only remedy to this is producing food domestically and thats something Turkey cant.

We have billions of cows and sheep but we are importing meat from Argentine and milk from France. Its like a joke.

If you know someone from cattle bussiness and is willing to invest certain money he should come here in Bosnia. We have open quota for meat exports to Turkey. I heard it is highly valued in restaurant scene in Istanbul

 

[Lool]

Government releases 3-year roadmap for Turkish economy​

ANKARA​

Turkey’s economy is projected to expand 9% this year and grow a further 5% in 2022, according to the country’s medium-term economic program published in the Official Gazette late on Sept. 5.

The government is aiming for growth of 5.5% in 2023 and 2024, according to the three-year program, while the average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target is 5.3%.

Turkey’s GDP jumped 21.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, the highest annual growth rate since 1999, according to official data released last week.

Commenting on the program, Treasury and Finance Minister Lütfi Elvan said on Twitter: “We will further strengthen macroeconomic stability for durable growth led by the private sector.”

Turkey’s annual inflation, which climbed to 19.25% in August from 18.95% in July, is projected to hit 16.2% by the end of this year.

It is expected to fall to 9.8% by the end of 2022, according to the new economic program, while the year-end targets for 2023 and 2024 are 8% and 7.6%, respectively.

The current account deficit to GDP ratio is projected to be 2.2% next year, further narrowing to 1.5% in 2023 and 1% in 2024.

The GDP per capita is expected to surpass $11,000 by 2024, according to the program. The figure will be $9,947 in 2022, $10,703 in 2023, and $11,465 in 2024.

The government is aiming for the GDP to exceed $850 billion in 2022, before hitting $975 billion in 2023 and topping $1 trillion in 2024.

Turkey's GDP with current prices is projected to be around $801 billion this year, while it stood at $717 billion in 2020, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.

The U.S. dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate will be around 8.30 by the end of this year and increase to 9.27 in 2022, 9.77 in 2023, and 10.26 in 2024, according to the program.

The country’s exports target is $230.9 billion for 2022 and grows to $255 billion by 2024.

Turkey’s budget deficit, which has widened due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, is projected to increase in the coming few years.

It is expected to be 230 billion Turkish liras ($27.7 billion) this year, with a target of 278.4 billion liras ($30 billion) for 2022, 290.2 billion ($29.7 billion) in 2023, and 294 billion liras ($28.7 billion) in 2024.

The unemployment rate in Turkey, which stood at 10.6% in June, will hit 12.6% by the end of this year, according to the program’s estimates.

The government aims to bring it down to 12% next year, 11.4% in 2023, and 10.9% in 2024.

Government releases 3-year roadmap for Turkish economy - Latest News

Turkey’s economy is projected to expand 9% this year and grow a further 5% in 2022, according to the country’s medium-term economic program published in the Official Gazette late on Sept. 5.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

______________________________

This is called a fairy tale for the desperate. If it works they can get some votes out of this sort of things. Actions speak louder than words.

Since that's the case the citizen will look at "what do we I get out of this here and now."

"What's the price of food next week."

Government will continue spouting their propaganda, but the citizen is smart. They'll close their ears and look at the prices.

That's all it'll take to get a new government.

What sort of bullshit program is this?
This program is literally telling the ppl; Yo Guys! Get ready, the lira is going down! Like WTF!

 

[Hexciter]

Electric motor export from Turkey to 32 countries

A motor comes out every 2 seconds in the factory.

WAT Engine Industry Project Leader Barış Tuğrul stated that the company has an engine production capacity of approximately 15.6 million units, and said that they are the largest engine manufacturer in Europe.


Engine exports to Germany, China and the USA

Emphasizing that they produce motors with the highest energy efficiency and deliver them to customers, Ertuğrul said that especially industrial motors are in high demand abroad with the systems they apply.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1434707603607666690

 

[Abdelaziz]

The U.S. dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate will be around 8.30 by the end of this year and increase to 9.27 in 2022, 9.77 in 2023, and 10.26 in 2024, according to the program.

What !!

 

[Nilgiri]

What !!

Yeah they are off their rockers if they think lira depreciation will buy heavy growth.

There is no relevant direct investment number (over last 5 years etc) to back it for starters.

 

[Saithan]

Turkey cuts grains' import customs duty to zero until year-end - Latest News

Turkey has reduced to zero the import customs duty for wheat, rye, barley, oats and maize, chick peas and lentils until year-end, the country's Official Gazette said on Sept. 8.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

Oh yay, anyone think they've realized they've messed up and trying to patch some of the issues with duty free imports.....

 

[Quasar]

Turkey cuts grains' import customs duty to zero until year-end - Latest News

Turkey has reduced to zero the import customs duty for wheat, rye, barley, oats and maize, chick peas and lentils until year-end, the country's Official Gazette said on Sept. 8.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

Oh yay, anyone think they've realized they've messed up and trying to patch some of the issues with duty free imports.....

Great so the last nail to the coffin of local farmers. instead of giving guarantee to the constructers of Airports, hospitals, bridges .... give support and guarantee to your farmers first. Use half of Diyanets budget to organize and improve farming in your country!!!

 

[Saithan]

Great so the last nail to the coffin of local farmers. instead of giving guarantee to the constructers of Airports, hospitals, bridges .... give support and guarantee to your farmers first. Use half of Diyanets budget to organize and improve farming in your country!!!

Let's see what effect this will have. If as someone mentioned earlier we have a lot of live cattle etc. importing feed cheaply could save the livestock. But the old school agriculture will suffer, people who have not been smart and invested and grown will likely suffer.

Diyanet is another story, I'm thinking next head will have to be secular nationalist....

 

[what]

Our farmers are simply not competitive. We either need more technology and support for the local farmers, so they can get into the 21th century and be competitive or we need more big agriculture instead of small farms. It is beyond me how we can not be self-sufficient in food with a country as fertile as ours.

 

[Saithan]

Turkish Treasury posts $7.57 bln cash surplus in August - Latest News

The Turkish Treasury's cash balance posted a surplus of 64.26 billion Turkish liras ($7.57 billion) last month, the Treasury and Finance Ministry announced on Sept. 7.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

I guess government didn't spend the money according to budget, which begs the question why, and what did they hold out on ?

Use the surplus to reduce short term debt!

 

[what]

Turkish Treasury posts $7.57 bln cash surplus in August - Latest News

The Turkish Treasury's cash balance posted a surplus of 64.26 billion Turkish liras ($7.57 billion) last month, the Treasury and Finance Ministry announced on Sept. 7.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

I guess government didn't spend the money according to budget, which begs the question why, and what did they hold out on ?

Use the surplus to reduce short term debt!

Could be that tax revenue grew unexpectedly high as seen with the export numbers and filled the accounts.

 

[Saithan]

Could be that tax revenue grew unexpectedly high as seen with the export numbers and filled the accounts.

Maybe, but seeing news like this:

Turkey spent only fraction of forest protection budget before wildfires erupted

Turkish authorities battling the country's worst ever wildfires have been accused of failing to prepare for the threat after official data showed they spent only a fraction of the modest funds budgeted to prevent forest fires this year.

www.reuters.com

Really doesn't give me any grounds to be optimistic about such an event. I'm more prone to look at what the budget was and where did the government skip on the expenses.

 

[Saithan]

Central Bank chief signals shift away from headline inflation​

ANKARA-Anadolu Agency​

The head of Turkey's Central Bank on Sept. 8 signaled a shift away from the sometimes-volatile headline inflation figure to core inflation, an indicator that may better reflect the true strength of the nation's economy.

"In the coming days, more focus will be given to excluding the effects of supply shocks [on inflation], beside our analyses of demand factors that can be affected by monetary policy, core inflation developments, and their compliance with our medium-term inflation target," Şahap Kavcıoğlu said at a meeting of the German-Turkish Chamber of Commerce and Industry in the capital Ankara.

Extraordinary conditions, especially due to the coronavirus pandemic, boost the importance of core inflation indicators, which are used to measure the underlying trend of inflation, Kavcıoğlu stressed.

According to the latest data, Turkey's annual inflation climbed to 19.25 percent in August, up 0.30 percentage points from a month ago.

Noting that annual inflation rose significantly in the food sector but only slightly in the services group, the Central Bank governor said: "We think that the temporary factors on the inflation outlook will ease in the short term and inflation will take a downward trend in the last quarter."

Non-food inflation is expected to remain below headline inflation for the rest of the year, he added.

Pointing to rising producer prices in developed and emerging countries like Turkey, Kavcıoğlu said this rise is driven by supply disruptions due to increasing commodity prices and the inability of production to respond to rapidly growing demand.

Kavcıoğlu added that higher international transportation costs and extended delivery times are other culprits in rising producer prices.

Central Bank chief signals shift away from headline inflation - Latest News

The head of Turkey's Central Bank on Sept. 8 signaled a shift away from the sometimes-volatile headline inflation figure to core inflation, an indicator that may better reflect the true strength of the nation's economy.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

______________________________
Take a wild guess on why government is talking about core inflation.

 

[Saithan]

İktidar yazarları 'ekonomi' alarmı veriyor: Bu işin şakası yok!

Hükümete yakınlığıyla bilinen Sabah gazetesi ekonomi yazarı Dilek Güngör, sert ekonomik uyarılarda bulundu.

www.veryansintv.com

The government's tales of 'economic growth' fail to convince even the writers of power. Sabah newspaper economy columnist Dilek Güngör made serious economic warnings. Another power writer, Cem Küçük, wrote in his article on Monday that the prices in the markets are very expensive and said, 'People who can't set their table and feed their children turn their anger towards the government in every democracy'.​

Google translated first part shows that even pro government mouthpieces are not able to keep lying to the people.

 

[Nilgiri]

Turkish Treasury posts $7.57 bln cash surplus in August - Latest News

The Turkish Treasury's cash balance posted a surplus of 64.26 billion Turkish liras ($7.57 billion) last month, the Treasury and Finance Ministry announced on Sept. 7.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

I guess government didn't spend the money according to budget, which begs the question why, and what did they hold out on ?

Use the surplus to reduce short term debt!

Remember govt (net) spending only addresses demand side. Excess demand (and lagging supply) = inflation.

I would assume they ran into lot of supply chokepoints and thus created inflation (known to them, but not reported that much) with the spending in lot of areas. Hence the easy step is to curtail funding to those sectors for time being (and end up with surplus)....till those chokepoints are addressed.

Lira surplus wont address foreign short term debt...as these are in other payable currencies (USD and Euro mostly). These would need to grow through the same capital account problems (i.e what is the cost benefit for other countries to buy Lira to give USD and Euro or do exchange currency swap since this goes above the free market Current account). Reluctance and issues there means a domestic govt Lira surplus wont address it.

Paying off govt domestic debt already happens within budget....it is budgeted (given these are domestic bonds with varying maturities in Lira)....i.e they are all on a schedule already....no reason to prematurely pay them off as you get no benefit in doing so (since you are also the issuer of the currency anyway).

 

[Saithan]

Remember govt (net) spending only addresses demand side. Excess demand (and lagging supply) = inflation.

I would assume they ran into lot of supply chokepoints and thus created inflation (known to them, but not reported that much) with the spending in lot of areas. Hence the easy step is to curtail funding to those sectors for time being (and end up with surplus)....till those chokepoints are addressed.

Lira surplus wont address foreign short term debt...as these are in other payable currencies (USD and Euro mostly). These would need to grow through the same capital account problems (i.e what is the cost benefit for other countries to buy Lira to give USD and Euro or do exchange currency swap since this goes above the free market Current account). Reluctance and issues there means a domestic govt Lira surplus wont address it.

Paying off govt domestic debt already happens within budget....it is budgeted (given these are domestic bonds with varying maturities in Lira)....i.e they are all on a schedule already....no reason to prematurely pay them off as you get no benefit in doing so (since you are also the issuer of the currency anyway).

I was thinking that reducing short term debt would strenghten the TL and potentially curb/reduce the inflation. As you pointed out the government is printing the money since they're synonymous with the CB.

That move alone wouldn't be enough and would be wasted without sound fiscal and financial policies. Which again goes back to sound rule of law.

 

[Nilgiri]

I was thinking that reducing short term debt would strenghten the TL and potentially curb/reduce the inflation. As you pointed out the government is printing the money since they're synonymous with the CB.

That move alone wouldn't be enough and would be wasted without sound fiscal and financial policies. Which again goes back to sound rule of law.

Where possible (for debt reduction) its generally best to not take on the debt at all (i.e thats how you reduce it, you take on less and let the ones you have mature and you payoff on schedule ramp).

For TR govt, a rational strategy (given this budgeting surplus) would be to take less debt (internally i.e Lira Bonds) going forward and dip into the surplus lira that has accumulated instead (by time of next budget or look at quick discretionary spending option for next quarter if that exists in Turkey). Though doing this has to be compared to other things the surplus could be used for ...

...like you said we need to see what the spending has lapsed on or if its case like what said there is sudden influx of tax receipts from exports....(though I doubt it as% wise its low for tax portfolio and I would imagine there is incentive programs in play to not impede export recovery in early phase).

Existing maturity bonds, might as well just follow schedule on those...esp given Turkey bond yield curves are pretty horrid right now (due to inflation)....there is just little incentive to go for long term bonds for people as the curve is now inverted past 1 year:

Turkey Government Bonds - Yields Curve

Turkey Government Bonds and Yields Curve. Updated charts and tables, agencies ratings, spread comparisons, current prices.

www.worldgovernmentbonds.com

(Can compare to other countries there)

This is really bad situation (though it was even more inverted 6 mths ago) , is CHP and opposition bringing this issue up?

Seems AKP is revving up engine rpm stuck in mud....instead of dealing with the mud.

Little of this applies to foreign debt (short or long term) deleveraging/repayment as that needs more surplus in foreign currencies (in TR banking system)....otherwise a govt is just going to be inflating and depreciating Lira even more trying to pay that back through exchange rate mechanism under current situation.