TR Economy & Updates

[Saithan]

Bro, Rome is not built overnight.

We're pushing 100 years here. But RTE took all that and wiped his arse!

 

[Tornadoss]

@tornadoss

you can laugh all you want but this is quite realistic scenario, check the situation in last couple of months in retail stores.

Well what happening in US is their own doing. Why would someone praise RTE for this? Here in CZ everything is normal.

 

[mulj]

Well what happening in US is their own doing. Why would someone praise RTE for this? Here in CZ everything is normal.

Simply, you would be less affected by usd lira ratio.

 

[Anastasius]

Bro, Rome is not built overnight.

Rome was not built by Romans selling off bits of Rome piece by piece to try and keep their economy afloat either.

 

[Saithan]

Turkey vows to continue with interest rate-cutting policy

Turkey on Friday reiterated its determination to continue implementing a policy of interest rate cuts, with the deputy finance minister and central bank...

www.dailysabah.com

 

[Nilgiri]

That is for investors. People who have money and who doesn't have to live on the salary in TL.

Why do you think UAE came with 10 B USD. To buy up critical important companies while they're cheap or have economic problems because of the instability.

It is far easier to just let time pass and let time prove things.

There is a reason why "higher exports" are not transmitting to things like basic minimum wage and consumption increases (like if actual wealth is being created and transmitted).

The fact it is trade balance and actual value-added (i.e labour input) in that difference that matters....has been shown multiple times at length on this thread already (several times just by me).

...and we just go in circular patterns with some regardless.....they refuse to read and/or understand.

Selective extreme cherry picking is preferred instead of big complete picture.

I mean only looking at exports without looking at imports....what more is there to say about people that constantly do this repeatedly?

This forum overall rewards single defence one-liner posts with dozens of likes consistently (for TR section)...

Long posts that explain things in detail (for non defence, or even defence a lot of times) get very little.

It is what it is at this stage of membership and focus. *shrug*

So its just best to let things ride out and people learn things if they want on their own effort in areas outside of TR defence.

I run out of time and interest for this stuff tbh as result.

Turkey only will get interesting from 2023 onwards (if it gets new leadership)....otherwise its a decline story, and I dont like those given so much potential squandered.

Economically Turkey is going to have a very lousy 2022 (quite uneccesarily), its really too bad.

People that simp too much over specific politicians (especially when they are not from the country and dont even live there) on this earth are a bane to humanity in general....well past Turkey's specific case.....IMO.

 

[Anastasius]

Turkey vows to continue with interest rate-cutting policy

Turkey on Friday reiterated its determination to continue implementing a policy of interest rate cuts, with the deputy finance minister and central bank...

www.dailysabah.com

They are going to need bulletproof windows on their houses at this rate.

 

[Huelague]

This year we will have a balanced trade ratio.

 

[Nilgiri]

This year we will have a balanced trade ratio.

Unlikely:

TURKSTAT Corporate

data.tuik.gov.tr

Net gain in trade balance to year has been about 5 billion USD relative to the 38 billion deficit in 2020 in same period (Jan to Sept)....and consider what kind of year 2020 was to exports to create that situation (lockdowns etc)

This is mostly driven by latent "springiness" in TR economy already achieving current account surplus before in 2019....rather than any new policy shift (especially destructive ones) now:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Goods component only (again check 2019, not a surplus, but a diminshed deficit compared to years prior):

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Consider the base level trends concerning these:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye | Data

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

It all remains a bigger question though........at what actual cost? What is the actual strategy? What actually should the govt have been doing for last 10 years or so? What can it now change rationally in a window of 1 - 2 years (till 2023 election)? Or will it do all-in desperate stuff instead? How does one actually analyse it?

Consider:

About 70% of Turkey’s imports are made up of raw materials and goods used in manufacturing, so that’s where much of the effects will be felt. Among the difficulties is that Turkey has to import most of its energy.

Turkey’s currency crisis is a textbook example of what not to do with interest rates

Contrary to most economists, President Erdoğan has long believed that raising interest rates increases inflation.

theconversation.com

How inelastic is that 70% of imports compared to elasticity of exports is the final thing of consequence.....and not in 1 - 2 year transient chunk .....but in 5 year chunk at minimum.

A country wants its imports to be as elastic as possible (to its consumers)...and its exports be as inelastic as possible (to foreign consumers).

i.e maximum diversity of choice to price changes for own (easy to switch if price increases).....and least diversity of choice to price change for others (not easy to switch if price increases).....

That is the whole fundamental concept of Value-addition and labour productivity comparison (across borders)...in driving it and increasing it and sustaining it.

Doing so needs good structural investment (when you do not have abundance of natural resources per capita and have to rely on human resource improvement).

Turkey was not anywhere close to that situation to begin with and last 10 years it has been made worse relative to the inherited context.

 

[Huelague]

Unlikely:

TURKSTAT Corporate

data.tuik.gov.tr

View attachment 36410

Net gain in trade balance to year has been about 5 billion USD relative to the 38 billion deficit in 2020 in same period (Jan to Sept)....and consider what kind of year 2020 was to exports to create that situation (lockdowns etc)

This is mostly driven by latent "springiness" in TR economy already achieving current account surplus before in 2019....rather than any new policy shift (especially destructive ones) now:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Goods component only (again check 2019, not a surplus, but a diminshed deficit compared to years prior):

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Consider the base level trends concerning these:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye | Data

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

It all remains a bigger question though........at what actual cost? What is the actual strategy? What actually should the govt have been doing for last 10 years or so? What can it now change rationally in a window of 1 - 2 years (till 2023 election)? Or will it do all-in desperate stuff instead? How does one actually analyse it?

Consider:

About 70% of Turkey’s imports are made up of raw materials and goods used in manufacturing, so that’s where much of the effects will be felt. Among the difficulties is that Turkey has to import most of its energy.

Turkey’s currency crisis is a textbook example of what not to do with interest rates

Contrary to most economists, President Erdoğan has long believed that raising interest rates increases inflation.

theconversation.com

How inelastic is that 70% of imports compared to elasticity of exports is the final thing of consequence.....and not in 1 - 2 year transient chunk .....but in 5 year chunk at minimum.

A country wants its imports to be as elastic as possible (to its consumers)...and its exports be as inelastic as possible (to foreign consumers).

i.e maximum diversity of choice to price changes for own (easy to switch if price increases).....and least diversity of choice to price change for others (not easy to switch if price increases).....

That is the whole fundamental concept of Value-addition and labour productivity comparison (across borders)...in driving it and increasing it and sustaining it.

Doing so needs good structural investment (when you do not have abundance of natural resources per capita and have to rely on human resource improvement).

Turkey was not anywhere close to that situation to begin with and last 10 years it has been made worse relative to the inherited context.

Right. Now, add tourism revenue ($~25 billion) and FDI, voila, trade surplus.

 

[Nilgiri]

Right. Now, add tourism revenue ($~25 billion) and FDI, voila, trade surplus.

That is not how that works (with FDI). FDI goes into capital account (not current) as its long term. Current is in the now.

I am not seeing any core FDI influx into Turkey. Such investors are very reluctant especially since 2018 with Turkey. They have fundamentally lost trust with TR administration and its understanding of stability and other joint-concerns when people front large (new or additional) capex. New being greenfield, additional being brownfield (w.r.t FDI).

M&A (merge and/or acquire) stuff UAE or anyone else wants to do w.r.t Turkey I put under separate tabulation (as UNCTAD does too)....as this is simply another form of currency swap (that TR govt already doing regularly wherever possible as fuel level in capital tank is at critical level...which affects the current "transmission").

I say that as a lot of politics are needed to get through (rather than market prices and analysis).... and it is just ownership change in the end (rather than new or added capex which is what I count as core FDI).

Frequent currency swaps and similar (low price valuation M&A or hot money FPI reliance etc) show a big problem with an economy....effectively the govt (and or corporates in their proximity) is using political leverages (or other govts with it) to introduce more forex into the economic picture that is not providing it through actual market forces.


=======================

As for the services in current account, let us see what is actual net benefit long term for Turkey. The 2019 "surplus" was not very sustainable.....in fact the whole trend from 2012 onwards to 2019 is more a question of why the pit was dug in first place from 2001 - 2012 a certain way.....rather than policy wise what was done hastily try to get out of it.

 

[Nilgiri]

This is what I mean by selective cherry picking btw..... I looked into the larger twitter feed of same guy brought up here....what does he say overall....and is it proper to highlight one tweet out of many without the context?

i.e what does long term mean in the end? ...and what do I mean when I say potential in this thread same way? Yes you can dip your money in and likely make a return in a very long term approach.....that has very little to do with the current administration running/ruining things right now though.....i.e when you look at the larger twitter feed of anyone that somewhat knows their beans or more than that....

Is he still a "smart guy" for some on these?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1464299525019996161

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1464297283676254211

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1464282907778981893

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1464279161128824833

 

[Huelague]

Is there any thread about turkish Start-up's and Unicorns?

 

[Turko]

Minimum Wages in Germany increased to 9.50 EUR/Hour in 2021 from 9.35 EUR/Hour in 2020. source: Federal Statistical Office​

Our labours with 12 hours work load cant earn money of the European one hour.

They decided helping labours because EURO increased in Germany like in Turkey

Zaten bunların Allah'ı yok.

 

[Manomed]

President Erdogan:
"Don't worry, our companies will earn more, our employees will get better wages, and individuals will have plenty of money in the next period."

We are already living for the gangs and related companies and the companies of his grooms and relatives.
They will experience more abundance, we will experience even more poverty.

While we are crawling, they will continue to rise from our backs and tell us that "we will be very rich, natural gas oil will come from Libya, UAE will give us money brother"

 

[Tornadoss]

Only one-celled Turks compare Germany with Turkey.

Even the French and Italian economies couldt compare themselves with Germany, let alone Turkey.

Yet, Germans envy us.

 

[what]

Only one-celled Turks compare Germany with Turkey.

Even the French and Italian economies couldt compare themselves with Germany, let alone Turkey.

In that case I am one-celled, because I will always compare Turkey and Turkish citizens to the best or one the best in the world. Because thats what the people and this country deserves.

Comparing wages in € and Lira of course is very one-sided and not the whole story.

Btw minimum wage in Germany will be increased to 12 € per hour, directly from the current of 9,xx €. Which means 20% increase per hour wage for around 20m people in Germany if I am not mistaken.

 

[Huelague]

In that case I am one-celled, because I will always compare Turkey and Turkish citizens to the best or one the best in the world. Because thats what the people and this country deserves.

Comparing wages in € and Lira of course is very one-sided and not the whole story.

Btw minimum wage in Germany will be increased to 12 € per hour, directly from the current of 9,xx €. Which means 20% increase per hour wage for around 20m people in Germany if I am not mistaken.

No.
You can’t compare us with Germans because you want see us in the same position like the Germans. About minimum wage of 12€. Any idea when it will come?

 

[Turko]

Only one-celled Turks compare Germany with Turkey.

Even the French and Italian economies couldt compare themselves with Germany, let alone Turkey.

Here Turkish Export was compared with Germany's by someones. İ don't think they were one-celled. However export comparison was really fun while Turkish export 80% depending on import of raw materials and energy.

Cem Küçük alay konusu: Alman emeklilerin maaşı yetmiyor kapak topluyor

Habertürk TV’de ekonominin konuşulduğu programda yandaş Cem Küçük'ün “Almanya'da emekli maaşları yetmediği için gazoz kapağı toplayan on binlerce insan var.” sözleri alay konusu oldu.

www.milligazete.com.tr

Gazoz kapağı: Beni Alman emeklilerine toplatınız ..

 

[Saithan]

October sales narrow Turkey’s foreign trade deficit by 40% to $1.44B

Turkey’s exports and imports saw an annual rise of 20.1% and 12.8% to reach $20.79 billion and $22.23 billion, respectively, the Turkish Statistical...

www.dailysabah.com

Foreign trade deficit shrinks 40 pct in October - Latest News

Turkey's foreign trade deficit shrank by 40.1 percent to stand at $1.44 billion in October, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) said on Nov. 29.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com