TR Economy & Updates

[Merzifonlu]

IMO, If we can't find an energy source large enough to close the current account deficit, we are in big trouble economically. Because tourism revenues, especially this summer, will remain very low due to a combination of many factors.

The main reasons are as follows: The economic destruction of both Ukraine and Russia due to the Ukraine war, the fear of western tourists due to the AKP's image abroad, the collapse of the AKP's foreign policy towards the Middle East, and global stagflation.

 

[Baryshx]

I don't care about the economic crisis, these people deserve it. Akp's biggest vote depot is the poor people.

Rich and educated people already vote for chp. These people can leave the country at any time.

By the way, most of the people in Tusaş, Tei, Aselsan and Roketsan are from chp, educated and graduated from ODTÜ and İtü schools. They have no ties with Akp, it would be a huge blow to the defense industry that we are so proud of. If the country turns into Venezuela or Lebanon, you cannot keep these people in the country.

Akp is already allergic to educated people and sees them as a group that causes a decrease in its vote rates. They are of a mentality that once called ODTÜ and İTU terrorist nests and defended their closure.

In addition, the Arab countries and Turkic republics, which we are guarding and protecting, will give dollar support.

Why should tourists come to a country full of Syrian and Afghan terrorists?

 

[fushkee]

The economy will be worse and the worst. Maybe like Argentina. The situation in Argentina is very teaching for those who want to see. The inflation is now chronic. None of any structural reforms in financial and law does effect the economy in good way. They will be living with it maybe forever.

And our economy is on the way of becoming Argentina if necessary precautions wouldn't be taken on time. Apparently, government will keep going it this way. It seems that the economy will go down traumatically. Inflation, hidden devaluation will be chronic, maybe.
I am expecting more releases is every sector. People will look for new opportunities abroad.

 

[Agha Sher]

Firet all these new CHP election accounts were polling experts. Now they’ve all become economy experts without understanding the basics.

give it a rest guys

 

[Kitra]

The economy will be worse and the worst. Maybe like Argentina. The situation in Argentina is very teaching for those who want to see. The inflation is now chronic. None of any structural reforms in financial and law does effect the economy in good way. They will be living with it maybe forever.

And our economy is on the way of becoming Argentina if necessary precautions wouldn't be taken on time. Apparently, government will keep going it this way. It seems that the economy will go down traumatically. Inflation, hidden devaluation will be chronic, maybe.
I am expecting more releases is every sector. People will look for new opportunities abroad.

High inflation have been chronic for at least 50 years, hence the reason to remove 6x0 in our currency. it will remain so until we actually start producing high value export products, stop our over consumption of luxury products and stop dependency on external energy.

Also, everyone knows that we will pay for the election economy wirh very high inflation.

 

[fushkee]

I summarised the possibilities in our future. If we keep implementing implausable economy model, the direction would be never different. Lower interest rates, more inflation. Besides that, incompetent leaders in economy like people who are Minister of Economy, Head of Central Bank, etc. will absolutely cause to become much deeper economical crises in Turkiye.

 

[Bozan]

I don't think a default is going to happen, though Turkiye will come under further economic strain for sure.

The largest foreign policy activity concerning this will likely be Turkish administration approaching more gulf countries for capital account funding by either SAFE (State administration of Foreign Exchange) deposits and/or currency swaps.

It is unlikely this will occur with any others (West, China, East Asia) given current geopolitical and economic climate (a long topic to get into)

Gulf countries on the other hand have ample reason to improve relations with Turkiye and/or extract more concessions and political capital (from say Erdogan admin) by doing so.

Their 5 largest sovereign wealth funds :

ADIA (UAE) ~ 700 billion USD
KIA (Kuwait) ~ 700 billion USD
PIF (KSA) ~ 580 billion USD
QIA (Qatar) ~ 450 billion USD
ICD (UAE) ~ 300 billion USD

Its unclear what state of leveraging these are all at with their own domestic and other commitments though....but just to give an idea of what I feel Turkiye will approach (given its now poor international credit rating) in greater capacity now past what it has dabbled so far with sukuk bonds and some currency swaps mostly with these same countries.

The drop in Turkish forex is starting to look very concerning (given its trade, investment and GDP denominators):

Turkey Gross Foreign Exchange Reserves

Foreign Exchange Reserves in Turkey increased to 87030 USD Million in October 3 from 86700 USD Million in the previous week. This page provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term...

tradingeconomics.com

Looking at bare minimum ratios that other developing countries under financial stress have had recently or in the past..... TR will want to stabilise at least above 50 billion given its imports are ~300 billion a year and more importantly with the CAD trend where it is:

Turkey Current Account Balance, 1992 – 2025 | CEIC Data

Turkey Current Account recorded a deficit of 3.8 USD bn in Jan 2025, compared with a deficit of 4.6 USD bn in the previous month.

www.ceicdata.com

i.e it will need about 50 - 100 billion injection (depending on current account performance this year compared to 2022) on capital side this year to handle both this and the capital account debt repayments given what its burning through on both current account side and domestic fiscal side.

This is a malady that has been allowed to get to this stage...by reasons long discussed in this thread.

There isn't enough gulf money to fund it.

That being said, the foreign policy will be for sale!

 

[Nilgiri]

Yeah no single country or group of countries would inject $50B-$100B in the Turkish economy. The government would either have to go to the IMF, or end up like Lebanon or Sri Lanka.

IMF and Erdogan admin will find zero common ground....as the latter will simply not reverse the low interest rate policy that in large part worsened this deep mess to begin with.

So there is no chance of IMF being involved in foreseeable future. The meeting ground is burned and salted already basically.

I mention the gulf countries because thats where Turkiye has mostly been able to sell its sukuk bonds (well past its regular bonds) and arrange currency swaps to essentially buy time till this election being done now.

It was not small amount of money, some 10's of billions of dollars so far.... I'd have to look into it for exact amount, but the matter stands that they are the likeliest option for continued funding to keep ship afloat.

Even on this forum, lot of members miss the woods for the trees by focusing on smaller sectors of their particular interest rather than learn about the larger economy (and its deep systemic problems) and call out those issues fairly to powers that be.

Overall a lot (cost and impact wise) depends on what specifics play out post election:

Turkish default protection costs soar as Erdoğan leads presidential vote

Cost of credit default swaps records biggest rise in two years, while bonds sell off

www.ft.com

 

[Crush716]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1658927322638974978

Public banks have exceeded 40 percent in deposit interest.

Many banks have either limited or turned off their credit taps.

Cash advance use from credit card has been stopped

The amount of cash advance usage has been halved.

Commercial loans were completely stopped.

After May 29, the markets seem to be waiting for very difficult days.

 

[Baryshx]

Also, everyone knows that we will pay for the election economy wirh very high inflation.

The hungry, the poor and the ignorant do not know this. The rich and politicians are fine, they are already swimming in dollars and euros.

 

[UkroTurk]

IMF and Erdogan admin will find zero common ground....as the latter will simply not reverse the low interest rate policy that in large part worsened this deep mess to begin with.

So there is no chance of IMF being involved in foreseeable future. The meeting ground is burned and salted already basically.

I mention the gulf countries because thats where Turkiye has mostly been able to sell its sukuk bonds (well past its regular bonds) and arrange currency swaps to essentially buy time till this election being done now.

It was not small amount of money, some 10's of billions of dollars so far.... I'd have to look into it for exact amount, but the matter stands that they are the likeliest option for continued funding to keep ship afloat.

Even on this forum, lot of members miss the woods for the trees by focusing on smaller sectors of their particular interest rather than learn about the larger economy (and its deep systemic problems) and call out those issues fairly to powers that be.

Overall a lot (cost and impact wise) depends on what specifics play out post election:

Turkish default protection costs soar as Erdoğan leads presidential vote

Cost of credit default swaps records biggest rise in two years, while bonds sell off

www.ft.com

https://archive.is/6wx9v

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659529331809329153

Huge data point

 

[Kitra]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659529331809329153

Huge data point

As cool as that sound, those cities also inhabit about 30-35M, including most of the industries, admistration and not to forget a lot of tourist visiting İstanbul.

 

[Crush716]

This guy is the minister of economy. We have these ignorant, uneducated, untrustworthy, uninformed, unintelligent, untrained, unreliable, unreasonable, unrealistic, unpatriotic, unprepared, unprofessional bigoted people running the country and than we wonder why economy is f*cked and why we are in the position we are. This is nuts!!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659602528353284103

Nureddin Nabati:

"We did not bow down to anyone while lowering the interest rates, because we said that the ezan will not be silenced and the flags will not be lowered.

When we heard the ezan, we said, 'Holy God,' and when they heard the , they said, 'What are they talking about?'"

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

This guy is the minister of economy. We have these ignorant, uneducated, untrustworthy, uninformed, unintelligent, untrained, unreliable, unreasonable, unrealistic, unpatriotic, unprepared, unprofessional bigoted people running the country and than we wonder why economy is f*cked and why we are in the position we are. This is nuts!!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1659602528353284103

Nureddin Nabati:

"We did not bow down to anyone while lowering the interest rates, because we said that the ezan will not be silenced and the flags will not be lowered.

When we heard the ezan, we said, 'Holy God,' and when they heard the , they said, 'What are they talking about?'"

Those retards sound more and more like the mullahs from iran.

 

[B_A]

So rising rate likes FED and Arjantin is a good idea?

 

[Baryshx]

So rising rate likes FED and Arjantin is a good idea?

This has nothing to do with interest rates or the economy. It is the rubbish of those who use religion...They humiliate themselves to get a ministry. Most probably the ministry is gone.

 

[Heartbang]

The hedge fund whales are pushing all the buttons. If we don't weaponize the tendies and put on a counteroffensive, it will go on forever.

 

[Heartbang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547119187797106689

I wonder what "macro stability" he's talking about?

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547119187797106689

I wonder what "macro stability" he's talking about?

Economic stability which is needed to convince investors