TR Economy & Updates

boredaf

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Only 14% of state budget goes to interest on debt expenditure, government debt is at 26,7% of GDP, where is the high debt? It is the great war of independence being won in slow motion. Another 5 years and with the energy sector revolution completed goodbye to every weakness Turkish economy suffered from in ages. Energy sector positive Türkiye is a nation most resilient and powerful. Look at the collapsing world and you see Türkiye rising.
Fucking hell... you truly do not live in the real world. People can barely afford the live and yet you're spewing shite about country rising. Turkish lira is at its lowest, everything is getting more expensive day by day, but it is all good, it is the world that is collapsing. I'd bet my life that if the shoe was on the other foot and your messiah wasn't in charge of the government you'd be frothing at the mouth about the state of the economy right now.
 

YeşilVatan

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Whats that?
As resident Mersinian, I'd like to chime in on this.

As you know, Mersin is famous for its tantuni, but liver or various kebab types are also very popular. All of those require lavaş, or flatbread to consume. To prefer anything other than flatbread means you are not actually fit to consume Mersin's food. This naturally means the city (population 1 million, roughly) is home to thousands of restaurants that require literal tons of flatbread daily.

It turns out there existed a mafia that was aiming to monopolize faltbread production. I didn't look into it but they are going to turn out to be kurdish. Police did a large scale operation targeting the bread gang.


10.7 billion liras. Imagine the scale of the operation.
 

Nilgiri

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If you have two countries with equal GDP in PPP terms, but one has double GDP in nominal terms because local prices are twice as high, their economies are not equal. The country with higher nominal GDP has much more purchasing power for imports of raw materials, technology, weapons, etc., or to make investments.

It depends. There are a lot of issues with nominal GDP (converted to USD directly) as well.

It assumes USD based trade/capital flows are

a) something like 20% of total GDP to achieve something close to pareto quantitatively
b) the impact even if a) is met is pareto qualitatively on the remaining 80%

Most times a) isnt met to begin with and b) is of varying correlation to extrapolate 1:1 to from that 20% (i.e final consumption and final investment rarely sufficiently mirrors what is traded/intersected with others)

That was the whole reason why the concept of PPP started since large countries at the time (1980s) such as PRC were barely having any trade intersection with the world to begin with, yet obviously were consuming energy and other base inputs far more than the resulting nominal conversion suggested.

There is nothing intrinsically wrong with China having a higher PPP GDP than the US today. It has advanced considerably post-Mao and has a population 4 - 5 times higher than the US. It is simply matter of time it consumes more than the US does. Same goes for India whenever that happens....again the population is much higher than the US.

It is not PPP's fault either that the GDP nominal is inflated with various countries. All PPP does is more accurately reflect the 80% bulk of economy that is not following the pareto correlation transmission by looking at actual prices and consumption scales there. Part of reason CCP has also not allowed same sampling rate (number of cities allowed in survey etc) like other peer countries do if you look at the relevant papers involved.

i.e that is separate matter with say PRC and it being brought up like it did with Wen Jiabao and Li Keiqiang, the reforms they suggested (at local CCP level where there was bad incentive structure in reporting and tabulation and errors compounded over time to make it "unreliable") and so on..... till both them and their factions were suppressed by the current guy. Those that also use (or are convinced by) the nominal figure in "beijing CCP asserts so" weathervane kind of way with no proper caveats added. given all this....again thats on them.
 

contricusc

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It depends. There are a lot of issues with nominal GDP (converted to USD directly) as well.

I agree with you that nominal GDP is also a very flawed indicator.

I thnk that the PPP variant is more relevant when comparing the purchasing power of the population, while nominal value is more relevant when comparing the size of a countr’s economy,

What matters most for a person is the quantity of goods and services he/she can purchase (which outside vacations is almost completely spent locally), so the PPP adjustment makes sense.

But when comparing countries, what matters is their ability to trade, to project power and to intercat with other countries. This is mostly done in nominal terms.

You can’t buy F35 jets or Blackwell NVIDIA chips with PPP adjusted dollars.

When you compare company profits, you don’t use PPP. You simply convert their earnings at the market rate. A multinational company earning billions of dollars in the US is much wealthier than a company earning millions of dollars in India, because it has more money for M&A or for expansion abroad. The PPP becomes meaningless in this situation.
 

begturan

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As resident Mersinian, I'd like to chime in on this.

As you know, Mersin is famous for its tantuni, but liver or various kebab types are also very popular. All of those require lavaş, or flatbread to consume. To prefer anything other than flatbread means you are not actually fit to consume Mersin's food. This naturally means the city (population 1 million, roughly) is home to thousands of restaurants that require literal tons of flatbread daily.

It turns out there existed a mafia that was aiming to monopolize faltbread production. I didn't look into it but they are going to turn out to be kurdish. Police did a large scale operation targeting the bread gang.


10.7 billion liras. Imagine the scale of the operation.
What kind of flatbread is this? Almost a $250 million market, and that much money circulating in a single city, isn't that abnormal? So, it's not about the flatbread!
 

YeşilVatan

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What kind of flatbread is this? Almost a $250 million market, and that much money circulating in a single city, isn't that abnormal? So, it's not about the flatbread!
$250m in 5 years. It's possible especially if they branched out to Adana. Lavaş is the lord of all bread. Praise be upon lavaş.
 

Tornadoss

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Here as @Zafer like PPP and charts here another chart from 2024.
Median disposable income compared to European countries Turkiye is lower than any EU country in similar levels with Serbia.


Fig1_Median_equivalised_disposable_income_and_magnitude_of_social_transfers%2C_2024_%28PPS_per_inhabitant%29.png


Another important data is the GINI index where Turkiye performs the worst in the whole Europe, the wealth is going just a few riches.
ui3idgy11j3e1.png
 

Zafer

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Stats of the day
Unemployment @ 7.7 %
Central bank forex @ $215.6 bn
Gold reserves @ 642 ton #10 in the world
Stock market soaring @ 13.650
Passenger plane count @ 800 up 242 in the last 5 years 43%
having a good day
 

Tornadoss

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Another statistic is Employment rate lowest in OECD. Nearly half of the workforce is not participating to the economy.
Also young adult unemployment is quite high.

Türkiye's youth unemployment crisis turns into structural problem as official statistics reveal that 6.7 million young adults between the ages of 15 and 34 are neither in education nor employment. Approximately 28% of Türkiye's youth population in this age bracket, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute

H8C8bfC.png
 

contricusc

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Another statistic is Employment rate lowest in OECD. Nearly half of the workforce is not participating to the economy.
Also young adult unemployment is quite high.

A low employment rate can be interpreted as bad (if you think the reason is the lack of jobs), or as good (many people can afford to live without having a job).

For example, if you look at women in employment, some would say a high rate is good for the economy, while others would see a high rate as the inability of a man to support a family from his earnings.

Low imployment may also singal that there is a large black economy, which goes unreported. This is not necessary a bad thing. It means the real economy is bigger than what appears in statistics.

When you look at the employment stats, you can see it’s more of a cultural thing than economical. Latin and Mediterranean countries tend to have a lower employment rate. Maybe it’s because people here are not willing to take whatever job is available, and are more adept at finding other sources of income (black economy again).
 

Nilgiri

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I agree with you that nominal GDP is also a very flawed indicator.

I thnk that the PPP variant is more relevant when comparing the purchasing power of the population, while nominal value is more relevant when comparing the size of a countr’s economy,

What matters most for a person is the quantity of goods and services he/she can purchase (which outside vacations is almost completely spent locally), so the PPP adjustment makes sense.

But when comparing countries, what matters is their ability to trade, to project power and to intercat with other countries. This is mostly done in nominal terms.

You can’t buy F35 jets or Blackwell NVIDIA chips with PPP adjusted dollars.

When you compare company profits, you don’t use PPP. You simply convert their earnings at the market rate. A multinational company earning billions of dollars in the US is much wealthier than a company earning millions of dollars in India, because it has more money for M&A or for expansion abroad. The PPP becomes meaningless in this situation.

Like I said, there is no be all end all. It depends what you are after.

I mean even GDP can be whittled down to improve signal to noise ratio (SNR) and focus on specific things that are more easily vetted end-end (say trade since its hard to fudge that) and offer something qualitative. Relative "noise" may or may not be good, real, spurious eddy or entirely fake... in tabulation quality. Exactly the kind of thing that Keqiang (Chinese premier) was suggesting and promoting to bypass "unreliable" PRC GDP total (till that line of thinking in CCP echelon finding some form in post-Deng era today was suppressed)

But even with those, how much is the local IP content, coherent human org (positive sum hierarchy), value addition and profit margin etc vs the inverses of those that are just non-pareto "bulk" (sweatshop adage) but which is also important in the end. Things like IP theft and coercion too that enter new scale with marxist-leninist court system (the uniparty is in entire control of the court system and its interpretation of civil law posited in the PRC constitution and legal code/conventions).

Simply using USD to extend to whole economy (of which GDP is an estimate) based on trade intersection carries inherent fault. But it gives relative bounds you can put some error bounds around to get a rough macro picture. It doesnt make it better or more relevant than PPP.... the SNR ratio improvement simply can be done for both. Both essentially carry same set of caveats in end.

Keqiang SNR improvement examples (within essentially what is captured by "PPP" far better):

- The Chinese dont pay their electricity bills in USD
- railway track addition numbers and totals done without USD reliant foreign capital flows.

Neither enter "easily tradeable" picture like what governs USD XR with Yuan (or at least pressures given the pegging with forex reserves and capital exit controls and so on). The very systems (and ability to lie/distort for various reasons if you look at drop of high frequency data PRC is reducing now under Xi) are very different.

We just have rough picture at macro with both.

When you have relative same systems, mature markets and contexts (say within europe, or transatlantic, OECD etc) with high exposure between all parties regd trade, investment and even human labour flow etc......then yes GDP nominal becomes much more relevant between them....the price signalling inertia has permeated deeply enough, there is standardized release of high frequency components to track and so on.

Anyway its getting off topic a bit.
 

Nilgiri

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Here as @Zafer like PPP and charts here another chart from 2024.
Median disposable income compared to European countries Turkiye is lower than any EU country in similar levels with Serbia.


Fig1_Median_equivalised_disposable_income_and_magnitude_of_social_transfers%2C_2024_%28PPS_per_inhabitant%29.png


Another important data is the GINI index where Turkiye performs the worst in the whole Europe, the wealth is going just a few riches.
ui3idgy11j3e1.png

Interesting. See the first one is done in "PPS"... a PPP kind of thing again. It has more relevance in end (compared to strict use of say nominal Euro and its exchange rate for Lira etc when we talk of larger human development.

Issue with Turkey is there has been severe economic mismanagement. It has not promoted broad base supply side reforms for quite some time now....so wealth that does arrive gets concentrated more where it already is.

Only with getting supply side basics right + stable signalling, you get a comprehensive bulk to tax and transfer for welfare to help the "last 20% - 40%" of population etc with any market slowness/failure there on essentials (that needs good functioning republic and legislature and courts etc)

Without supply side improvement.... fiscal constraint enters the picture (since demands exceed/pressure things), especially with capital flow instability. You go to gulfie countries for sukuk bonds and currency exchanges etc... rather than large investors from developed capital markets etc. All made worse from that stupid policy that lowering interest rates will address inflation (when its the reverse).

In any case I read that Turkish capital market is now on rebound. Seems to have stabilised around 400 billion market cap now compared to wild swings/shocks. Let us see how that goes....but TR needs a ton of reforms that are not being done.
 

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