TR Economy & Updates

[Deliorman]

A woman dares yelling to President :"My son has came from the military, I am operated, I am hungry"

And somebody neglected her.

Here is the current situation of Türkish economy.

Hunger is good for the health! May Allah give her more of it so she can vote for AKP again.

 

[Zafer]

Ungrateful woman made a scene to make a gain from seeing the president. Under another government she would never get to see a president and would be beaten up by guards for her actions if she did while she is being treated bountifully now. She will bear this shame forever as she behaved selfishly like she is the only one with a jobless son.

 

[Turko]

She is ungrateful for what? For starvation?
The president lives in palace and has 1000 personal security guards can't be close to nation. Your fallacy reminds me north korean TV .

Here is the modest and successful politician whom her voters don't feel ungrateful.

I know very well what you were implying

 

[Zafer]

She is ungrateful for what? For starvation?
The president lives in palace and has 1000 personal security guards can't be close to nation. Your fallacy reminds me north korean TV .

Here is the modest and successful politician whom her voters don't feel ungrateful.
View attachment 14243

Fallacy all belongs to you, Merkel is a nobody who is just an appointed officer is waiting eagerly to be freed from work and retire.

 

[Turko]

Fallacy all belongs to you, Merkel is a nobody who is just an appointed officer is waiting eagerly to be freed from work and retire.

İnsulting and blaming poor people for being ungrateful is literally fallacy. If you noticed she wasn't the only one who was begging the president. There were a lot of people begging" Cumhurbaşkanım Cumhurbaşkanım".

Full stomaches never can't realize the hunger.
Anyway Türkish citizens must take example the north koreans how they remunarate their president.

 

[mulj]

funny how focus diverted from lira devalvation to the ordinary citizens problems, in other words people will complain anytime for specific reasons, otherwise lira continue to rise vs usd, pls adjust your calculations

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361231796667617281

 

[Tornadoss]

Ungrateful woman made a scene to make a gain from seeing the president. Under another government she would never get to see a president and would be beaten up by guards for her actions if she did while she is being treated bountifully now. She will bear this shame forever as she behaved selfishly like she is the only one with a jobless son.

Ungrateful woman? There are many thing I can name you but unfortunately it's against the forum rules.

 

[Zafer]

Ungrateful woman? There are many thing I can name you but unfortunately it's against the forum rules.

Saying you would name is as good as saying it, you are nailed.

 

[Turko]

funny how focus diverted from lira devalvation to the ordinary citizens problems, in other words people will complain anytime for specific reasons, otherwise lira continue to rise vs usd, pls adjust your calculations

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361231796667617281

Taking from 1.8 making it 7 ( 7 is temporary) is economic miracle. As if The current regime hadn't been in power for 20 years. Temporary change of currency gives hope to miserable politicians. You might be trying shadowing catastrophic economic management.

Kim Jong-un says North Korea's economic plan failed

It comes after a year of border closures with China and storms that have devastated homes and crops.

www.bbc.com

Even Kim admitting they failed, please be honest as much as Kim.

 

[mulj]

Taking from 1.8 making it 7 ( 7 is temporary) is economic miracle. As if The current regime hadn't been in power for 20 years. Temporary change of currency gives hope to miserable politicians. You might be trying shadowing catastrophic economic management.

Kim Jong-un says North Korea's economic plan failed

It comes after a year of border closures with China and storms that have devastated homes and crops.

www.bbc.com

Even Kim admitting they failed, please be honest as much as Kim.

you think so low about your own state and economy when you make comparation with north korea but on the bright side, your sarcasm is clear sign of weakness for your argumentation.

 

[adenl]

you think so low about your own state and economy when you make comparation with north korea but on the bright side, your sarcasm is clear sign of weakness for your argumentation.

Just put them on ignore, they aren't worth your attention. No matter how much you discuss with them and debunk them, they keep on going as if they are trolling.

 

[Turko]

you think so low about your own state and economy when you make comparation with north korea but on the bright side, your sarcasm is clear sign of weakness for your argumentation.

My people deserve better economy and democracy than they have . That's why we write here.

 

[Turko]

Erdoğan'a 'açım' diyen kadından geri adım: Aç değilim açıkta değilim

Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'a Elazığ ziyaretinde "Açım ben açım" diye seslenen Bedriye Fırat, Elazığ Valiliği'nde yaptığı açıklamada "Yanlış anlamışlar. Allah, cumhurbaşkanımızı da başımızdan eksik etmesin ve Allah bin kere ondan razı olsun. Allah cumhurbaşkanımızdan razı olsun, aç değilim açıkta...

www.karar.com

She went backward)))))))

İf she hadn't problem why she visited Governor. Governor must have put some food money in her pocket and promised to find job her son. But what about entire 30 % unemployed, then all unemployed turkish people must go to the palace and shout at President.

Sadaka ekonomisi: charity economy

 

[Deliorman]

funny how focus diverted from lira devalvation to the ordinary citizens problems, in other words people will complain anytime for specific reasons, otherwise lira continue to rise vs usd, pls adjust your calculations

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361231796667617281

Like three years ago the lira was traded for 3 liras for 1$ and everyone was unhappy how much value the currency lost and how weak it was. Then thanks to Pastor Brunson and Erdo’s Son in Law it went to 5... 6... 8+ and higher and all of you Erdofans were cursing at America, the West and Israel and the terrorist market speculators.
Now the Lira gained 5-10 percent value and is at 7 for 1$ and you are out here jerking off on how great the economy is with your heads flying in the moon and the stars. Inflation continues to grow and increasing number of people live in poverty every day but when someone complains about it it’s always a provocation- terrorists, traitors and ungrateful people who tell lies.


ps Turkish economy is so strong that Trump collapsed the currency in one day with two Tweets. Pray to Biden now not to write anything.

 

[Deliorman]

And one more thing: you can tell as many fairytales to the people as you want and tell them how all of Europe is jealous of them and how great Turkish economy is but in the end the FRIDGE always wins over the TV.

You can’t fill an empty stomach with propaganda and fairytales.

 

[mulj]

Like three years ago the lira was traded for 3 liras for 1$ and everyone was unhappy how much value the currency lost and how weak it was. Then thanks to Pastor Brunson and Erdo’s Son in Law it went to 5... 6... 8+ and higher and all of you Erdofans were cursing at America, the West and Israel and the terrorist market speculators.
Now the Lira gained 5-10 percent value and is at 7 for 1$ and you are out here jerking off on how great the economy is with your heads flying in the moon and the stars. Inflation continues to grow and increasing number of people live in poverty every day but when someone complains about it it’s always a provocation- terrorists, traitors and ungrateful people who tell lies.


ps Turkish economy is so strong that Trump collapsed the currency in one day with two Tweets. Pray to Biden now not to write anything.

lets face it you are just other side of the coin, no critical and contextual approach to the economy and all factors that influence on it, this is just anti akp goverment ranting. your economy is not that bad considering political conditions around turkey and silent treatment that you get from west. turkey became competitor and turbulences are normal. as i said many time before, become west yes sir country and you will get much deserved reward and head patting like a good puppy, otherwise stand firm and solve your issues without everyday moaning,. you can not have both.

are you around plovdiv maybe?

 

[Turko]

Like three years ago the lira was traded for 3 liras for 1$ and everyone was unhappy how much value the currency lost and how weak it was. Then thanks to Pastor Brunson and Erdo’s Son in Law it went to 5... 6... 8+ and higher and all of you Erdofans were cursing at America, the West and Israel and the terrorist market speculators.
Now the Lira gained 5-10 percent value and is at 7 for 1$ and you are out here jerking off on how great the economy is with your heads flying in the moon and the stars. Inflation continues to grow and increasing number of people live in poverty every day but when someone complains about it it’s always a provocation- terrorists, traitors and ungrateful people who tell lies.


ps Turkish economy is so strong that Trump collapsed the currency in one day with two Tweets. Pray to Biden now not to write anything.

I'm happy when Turkish lira gains because of 2 reasons.
First my money gaining, i don't lose

Second, it makes AKP and it's supporters recall who has been ruling the economy for 20 years. And who is responsible for economy!

While Turkish Lira loosing value , "external powers made it".
When TL increasing "Reis knows better"!

 

[Nilgiri]

Fiscal tightening of last few months till now has been appreciable by Turkish govt and was correct move to help stave off the immediate crisis that was gathering muster.

The interest rate was jacked up from around 10% (in november 2020) to about 17% by 2020-end.

Turkish Lira likely will settle mid this year again at the 6.5 - 6.7 range it enjoyed for most of 2020....but at this new setting of much higher interest rate (which will have impact on various industries reliant on credit like housing and also for industrial expansion by heavy capital buying etc).

Turkey has a window this year to re-adjust as capacities come back online not jsut in turkey but in world markets....and thus there is likely not a huge credit pull across the board.

Turkish central bank has announced it will not drop interest rate in short term....giving further assurance to currency setting around this level.

But during this time (this year and next), at least now,

Turkish govt must do heavy-set reforms it has been putting off for the last 10 years or so, and especially the last 5 years.

Turkish govt cannot just leave the structural issues (at the 6 - 7 "Setting" of turkish lira/USD in last few years) aside and ignore it or tinker around edges....and divert attention from these serious issues.

The basic story of 2011 to now (in external sector) has been:

Currency value dropped from like 1.6 Lira/USD to 7....a drop of more than 4 times, a depreciation of around 16% a year.

Yet trade balance (exports minus imports) improved from (-68 billion USD) in 2011 to around (+21 billion USD) in 2019

Trade level (exports + imports) has been relatively stagnant at around 450 billion. This is not good, Turkey must be increasing this while trying to get more exports too, rather than just having it shift a bit within a certain total level.

In any regard it is concerning that Turkey's exchange rate over last 10 years has dropped like this, to this level.... while its trade balance actually improved (and changed from negative to positive).

i.e the current account pressure improved (and would have resulted in turkish lira gain against USD if it was only thing that happened)...thus more things are happening to reverse the natural expected consequence.

i.e there is severe systematic issue in the other half of equation of Balance of payments....i.e capital account (loans, investment flows etc...both quantity and quality esp given govt intervention/policy here).

So people must ask why has the lira dropped 4 times like this while trade balance improved in same span of years? This has to do with govt balance sheet and policies that affect the capital account.

My prescription (of structural reform w.r.t capital account) would be roughly:

A) Wasteful spending programs (especially those backed by loans and fiscal deficit) by govt must be cut as far as possible.

Tax breaks must be given to productive industries especially ones that can earn foreign exchange. New programs of this nature must not be announced for election gimmicks. The country has to be put first past political expedience.


B) Turkey must halt its debt accumulation, especially short term debt as far as possible.

It must even try to reverse this....and show it is serious about improving its credit rating back to prime from speculative (it has been stuck at speculative range a long time....too long)


C) Turkey must work hard to improve its investment climate.

Its FDI inflow per year has dropped from 16 billion in 2011 to around 8 billion in 2019. This is absolutely wrong direction given the potential and location of Turkey.

Its market cap valuation cycle used to average around 250 billion around 2010 timeframe.

Now that averages around 160 billion. Likely indicating FPI inflow problem there too (i.e what is cold vs hot flows) w.r.t external sector.

Turkey cannot put this stuff off any longer...it has lot of underlying fundamentals that are still quite solid, but it must harness those and do the tough reform now.

 

[mulj]

Fiscal tightening of last few months till now has been appreciable by Turkish govt and was correct move to help stave off the immediate crisis that was gathering muster.

The interest rate was jacked up from around 10% (in november 2020) to about 17% by 2020-end.

Turkish Lira likely will settle mid this year again at the 6.5 - 6.7 range it enjoyed for most of 2020....but at this new setting of much higher interest rate (which will have impact on various industries reliant on credit like housing and also for industrial expansion by heavy capital buying etc).

Turkey has a window this year to re-adjust as capacities come back online not jsut in turkey but in world markets....and thus there is likely not a huge credit pull across the board.

Turkish central bank has announced it will not drop interest rate in short term....giving further assurance to currency setting around this level.

But during this time (this year and next), at least now,

Turkish govt must do heavy-set reforms it has been putting off for the last 10 years or so, and especially the last 5 years.

Turkish govt cannot just leave the structural issues (at the 6 - 7 "Setting" of turkish lira/USD in last few years) aside and ignore it or tinker around edges....and divert attention from these serious issues.

The basic story of 2011 to now (in external sector) has been:

Currency value dropped from like 1.6 Lira/USD to 7....a drop of more than 4 times, a depreciation of around 16% a year.

Yet trade balance (exports minus imports) improved from (-68 billion USD) in 2011 to around (+21 billion USD) in 2019

Trade level (exports + imports) has been relatively stagnant at around 450 billion. This is not good, Turkey must be increasing this while trying to get more exports too, rather than just having it shift a bit within a certain total level.

In any regard it is concerning that Turkey's exchange rate over last 10 years has dropped like this, to this level.... while its trade balance actually improved (and changed from negative to positive).

i.e the current account pressure improved (and would have resulted in turkish lira gain against USD if it was only thing that happened)...thus more things are happening to reverse the natural expected consequence.

i.e there is severe systematic issue in the other half of equation of Balance of payments....i.e capital account (loans, investment flows etc...both quantity and quality esp given govt intervention/policy here).

So people must ask why has the lira dropped 4 times like this while trade balance improved in same span of years? This has to do with govt balance sheet and policies that affect the capital account.

My prescription (of structural reform w.r.t capital account) would be roughly:

A) Wasteful spending programs (especially those backed by loans and fiscal deficit) by govt must be cut as far as possible.

Tax breaks must be given to productive industries especially ones that can earn foreign exchange. New programs of this nature must not be announced for election gimmicks. The country has to be put first past political expedience.


B) Turkey must halt its debt accumulation, especially short term debt as far as possible.

It must even try to reverse this....and show it is serious about improving its credit rating back to prime from speculative (it has been stuck at speculative range a long time....too long)


C) Turkey must work hard to improve its investment climate.

Its FDI inflow per year has dropped from 16 billion in 2011 to around 8 billion in 2019. This is absolutely wrong direction given the potential and location of Turkey.

Its market cap valuation cycle used to average around 250 billion around 2010 timeframe.

Now that averages around 160 billion. Likely indicating FPI inflow problem there too (i.e what is cold vs hot flows) w.r.t external sector.

Turkey cannot put this stuff off any longer...it has lot of underlying fundamentals that are still quite solid, but it must harness those and do the tough reform now.

in simple words Turkey should accept dictate of MMF/IMF, do not know if that would be correct move for longer perspective in correlation with Turkey foreign policy ambitions. With higher employment rates those mentioned disbalances should be eased and that is were focus should be primarely directed. If Turkey achieves 10-15% unemployment rates then they will have more space and reserves for structural reforms by themselfs.

 

[Deliorman]

lets face it you are just other side of the coin, no critical and contextual approach to the economy and all factors that influence on it, this is just anti akp goverment ranting. your economy is not that bad considering political conditions around turkey and silent treatment that you get from west. turkey became competitor and turbulences are normal. as i said many time before, become west yes sir country and you will get much deserved reward and head patting like a good puppy, otherwise stand firm and solve your issues without everyday moaning,. you can not have both.

are you around plovdiv maybe?

I concretely talk to you about the currency fluctuations and that the economy is bad but you make me go deeper into the rabbit hole and talk about who is competitor to whom etc. You want critical and contextual approach from me but to go the end of it all we will need days of talking and hours of writing and explaining.

Do you want to talk about credit bubbles, low savings rates and over dependency on “Hot money” inflows or the construction bubble and the dozens of “Mega Projects” built in ways that more harm the economy than they help it.
Do you want to talk about the corruption and how Erdogan’s influence over independent institutions like the Judiciary or the Central Bank influence the economy and the investment climate?
Do you want to talk about the bad education system, lack of opportunities for the young and educated and the brain brain and what effects they have on the economy?
Or maybe you want to talk about the billions and billions of misused and wasted money and wasted opportunities?

I can be even more concrete and contextual and provide you with data and comparisons to other developing markets because the numbers are there but there is no point. Erdogan is great, economy is great, everything is perfect... it’s all the fault of the enemies inside and outside.