https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/eb...er-ekonomide-iyilesmeye-isaret-ediyor/1991980
EBRD Chief Economist Kelly pointing to an improvement in the economy; Preliminary data in Turkey marked the beginning of improvement in the economy, 'our estimates, this year's second half includes the continuation of the increases we have seen in the data so far.'
The regional chief economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Roger Kelly, said about the latest preliminary data that this is the beginning of an improvement of the Turkish economy. After the EBRD revised its growth forecasts for the countries where it operates, Kelly said the Turkish economy, like all economies, was affected by the epidemic.
Kelly said: "After the economy shrunk by 3. 5 percent this year, we expect growth at the 5 percent level (in Turkey) in 2021."
Commenting on the assessment of the latest economic indicators for Turkey, Kelly said: "The latest leading data point to the beginning of the recovery of the economy and our forecasts include continued growth of the previous data in the second half of this year. Turkey has a driving force behind its economy, which is consumption, and has a tendency to recover quickly. Therefore, we have a strong growth forecast for 2021," he said. Kelly warned that a renewed increase in measures at a social distance in the coming period could hamper economic recovery due to a possible second wave of the epidemic.
“A change in the direction of trade can be beneficial for Turkey”, said Roger Kelly, referring to the economic impact of the Corona outbreak, the performance of the Turkish lira, the macroeconomic balance and geographical risks, as well as potential difficulties. Kelly: “The epidemic could also offer some opportunities for the Turkish economy. Especially with regard to the change of direction, because companies want to shorten their supply chains. Turkey’s geographical location, with its flexible production base, may offer opportunities for closer trade with the centre. In particular in trade with the EU...
"The decision to raise interest rates was a bold move", said Kelly, who also assessed recent monetary policy steps: "The fact that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has raised interest rates for the first time in the last two years is hopefully a sign that macroeconomic stability is being brought back into focus. Very sensitive times for policymakers... The recovery is still fragile and is in the early stages of the process. In this sense, the decision to raise interest rates was a courageous step. I hope that this is a sign that the authorities are ready to take the necessary political steps to maintain an appropriate balance between recovery and macroeconomic stability."
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