TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

Afif

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Exactly!
The EEZ agreement between Turkey and Libya must always be observed as the mainstay of Turkish foreign policy by all governments.
Remember, this geostrategic ‘leap’ from classical Turkish ‘reactive’ foreign policy stand was not our doing.
This EEZ thing came to this world after an unwanted pregnancy. Turkey was merely a midwife here and we all know who the parents were.
Now Turkey actively must take care of this new geopolitical goal at any cost because if we let it go the lost will not be limited to loss of soft power in the region but it will practically shackle us to littoral waters of Aegean Sea. Just remember the league that was formed against Turkey which in time rapidly turned into an undeclared loosely organized political alliance with the main goal of diminishing Turkey’s vital life lines.
When you add the semi openly dictated US desire and - not to mention - behind the closed doors efforts to dysfunctionalize the Montreux Convention at the same time, again by her, to turn the Black Sea into a “NATO Sea” channeling through NATO (unadmittedly, nothing but a US sea zone to choke Russia in practice), it’s really not hard to appreciate the vitality of this particular EEZ for Turkey.

And a word about Egypt.
I never understood how can any government in the region can afford to ignore Egypt no matter how messed up she is.

The best solution to Libya's problem and to protect its peoples interest would have been full fledged UN peacekeeping mission.

But given Russians will never approve it in security council it is unlikely to happen.

However, a free and fair election for legal governance is still possible. Then Turkey could have smoothly its way in with oil and gas exploration and infrastructure building. (+defence ties)

Otherwise, the current EEZ agreement has legal void in it as Libyan parliament rejected it last year.

It has to do with Arab Socialism and Pan Arabism of Gamal Nasser that explains his hostility to Turkiye.

Right, along with a little bit mixture of communism.

Egyptian nationalists complained about how they were ruled by Turks and Albanians.

isn’t that true though?

I doubt Turkiye and Egypt will never be close for decades have never been close. Not just interests that clash but its pretty ideological with historical grievances.

If Egypt and Turkey can get along together, one particular country in the region would become very nervous. Guess which one.

And I think it is very possible to achieve if a democratically elected government can comes in power again.
 

Ryder

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The best solution to Libya's problem and to protect its peoples interest would have been full fledged UN peacekeeping mission.

But given Russians will never approve it in security council it is unlikely to happen.

However, a free and fair election for legal governance is still possible. Then Turkey could have smoothly its way in with oil and gas exploration and infrastructure building. (+defence ties)

Otherwise, the current EEZ agreement has legal void in it as Libyan parliament rejected it last year.



Right, along with a little bit mixture of communism.



isn’t that true though?



If Egypt and Turkey can get along together, one particular country in the region would become very nervous. Guess which one.

And I think it is very possible to achieve if a democratically elected government can comes in power again.

Israel and Iran would be disturbed by it of course.
 

Ripley

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The best solution to Libya's problem and to protect its peoples interest would have been full fledged UN peacekeeping mission.

But given Russians will never approve it in security council it is unlikely to happen.
A Russian veto is one thing, but double play by another UNSC member, namely France, is something else should be taken into account.
IMO, a UN peacekeeping is a remote possibility as it’s a vast geography to conduct and coordinate such a mission and still practically divided by huge distances. Plus I’m not sure whether they’re willing to invite UN to their land.
 

Sanchez

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What CHP and IYI said about Libya policy.....
Back in 2020, for the first deployment bill, CHP and IYI rejected voting for it, saying:
IYI:
"Was the Blue Homeland Agreement signed in return for sending troops to Libya? As IYI Party, we cannot be responsible for making our soldiers a clear target of an alliance from Russia to Egypt, and most importantly to General Haftar's forces supported by these countries, where our national security is not under threat."

"20 percent of brotherly Azerbaijan's lands are under occupation, come on, let's go and save there first. There are facts and there are interests. We supported Operation Peace Spring, what happened? You stopped the Turkish army marching like lions with a tweet. You say this is such an important bill, but there is not even a minister here(to defend the bill), it's a shame."

CHP:
"“It is a disaster call prepared to send our Armed Forces to war in the deserts of Libya,” the CHP said for the memorandum. Criticizing the use of the phrase "national interest" instead of "national security" in the memorandum, the CHP said, "Our Armed Forces are not anyone's private security forces, and the sons of the homeland cannot be irresponsibly sent to the deserts of Libya in this way. What will you do when news of martyrdom comes from Libya? Will you comfort your the families of their sons' deaths by saying 'destiny' as it was an ordinary accident?"

Kılıçdaroğlu: "Turkey should take the lead in ensuring stability in the region and put all its diplomatic efforts in this direction"
"The message of CHP Deputy Chairman Ünal Çeviköz was in this direction. Stating that the legitimacy of Turkey's intervention in Libya is controversial in terms of international law, and that there is no United Nations General Assembly resolution that approves this, Çeviköz said, "In order not to face an irreparable situation, contact should be made with both sides, such as Russia and Germany, and diplomatic channels should be kept open.

You will say, what is your suggestion? When we say diplomacy, we mean taking initiative. Since you see the GNA as the legitimate government recognized by the UN in Libya, then invite the UN to take action. As a UN member, Turkey has the right to invite the UN to establish such a UN peacekeeping force and to take a decision on this issue, and to take the lead. Call and say that we, as Turkey, are ready to contribute to such a peacekeeping force. Only then can you be considered a respected international actor. Do you not intend to do this? Then we make this call for you from this lectern."

For the extension of the deployment bill in 2022 CHP rejected it again while IYI supported it.
IYI:
Speaking on behalf of the IYI Party, Aydın deputy Adnan Gezgin justified their vote of "no" to the previous resolution by saying, "Yes, we were against sending Mehmetçik to a war environment". "However, since the end of 2020, due to the ceasefire, there has been no active fighting in Libya," he said, adding that they would "say yes" on the grounds that "our military [is] not in an active combatant position, and that it will "play a deterrent role in terms of conflicts between militias....

The international developments are so grave that the emergence of the impression that the government's space of action in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean is blocked in this risky environment may lead to some question marks in the foreign world that are not for Turkey's benefit". He added, "We also care about maintaining the morale of our forces in Libya and the Mehmetçik who is on duty abroad [...] and we say "yes(to the bill)"".

CHP:
"We have always been against the second agreement, such as sending soldiers to Libya, which was brought before us as a precondition of the Naval Authorization Agreement(meaning EEZ deal between Libya and Turkey), and the resolution brought after it, and we continue to do so today," he said. "Because we are against the assignment of our Mehmetçik to protect the lands of other countries, except for humanitarian aid operations that have international legitimacy."

I added some parts in parentheses to make it legible in English with context. Sources as follows:

One CHP MP called Mavi Vatan "expansionist" before. There's no reason to expect something different from them.
As per Libya Turkey EEZ deal, both IYI and CHP supported it. As for how CHP views it, this communique directly from their website penned by KK's FoPo advisor Çeviköz sums it up nicely:

Some parts are not agreeable, but the last paragraph(about needing to normalize with and get support of Egypt, Israel and Syria) is pretty on point and is what's AKP is trying to do for the past year.
 

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In Turkiye, MPs are taken very seriously and their statements are taken seriously. However, most of them are nothing, in the end it is up to the presidents and the national security council. The interests of the country are important, it does not matter what any MP from any party says.

Too much meaning is attached to MPs, this is troll work.

For example, does any member of parliament in Akp matter in such matters of national security and interest?
 

Heartbang

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As per Libya Turkey EEZ deal, both IYI and CHP supported it. As for how CHP views it, this communique directly from their website penned by KK's FoPo advisor Çeviköz sums it up nicely:
I've omitted that guy's name for a reason, he does not need to have any kind of attention from us for his treacherous beliefs.

I suggest you delete that mans name as well.
 

Sanchez

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We literally cannot know what a person thinks behind back of their head. Just saying "this guy says this so he's a traitor and all the other people from his party are traitors as well" is child's play.

What they say when supporting or rejecting a bill as a group, or what a higher up in the party, versed and powered by their party in FoPo is one way to surmise what a party may be thinking about regarding a certain topic. When IYI MP from Aydın speaks in parliament regarding the issue, he's not getting his thoughts of his chest but giving the reason for their group's support or rejection of the bill.

"They all suck, they're all lies, they're trolls" only downplays the work they should be doing and doesn't help our problems. I've heard the same multiple times of how CHP and IYI didn't want to support the Karabağ War of 2020, when parliament logs all show their support. Same with Shusha Agreement, which was passed again with their support. Logs are literally there for all to see.
Some of which, before it was voted on. Coincidentally it's from November 10:
I've omitted that guy's name for a reason, he does not need to have any kind of attention from us for his treacherous beliefs.

I suggest you delete that mans name as well.
Yeah, nah, that's not how discussions work.
 

BalkanTurk90

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In Turkiye, MPs are taken very seriously and their statements are taken seriously. However, most of them are nothing, in the end it is up to the presidents and the national security council. The interests of the country are important, it does not matter what any MP from any party says.

Too much meaning is attached to MPs, this is troll work.

For example, does any member of parliament in Akp matter in such matters of national security and interest?
You right but those MP can became ministers and members of security council
I hope if CHP IYI comes to power some things will not change like ;

1- Turkish outside military bases and army development in those lands
2- Presidential System
3- Hagia Sofiya Mosque , forever Mosque
4- No closse allies with US or Russia china while stop relation with other side, keeps distance from everyone and work with all of them .
5- Priority for Defence industry and give them all the money and everything to work , no cut from those 500+ ptojects.
 

Baryshx

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You right but those MP can became ministers and members of security council
I hope if CHP IYI comes to power some things will not change like ;

1- Turkish outside military bases and army development in those lands
2- Presidential System
3- Hagia Sofiya Mosque , forever Mosque
4- No closse allies with US or Russia china while stop relation with other side, keeps distance from everyone and work with all of them .
5- Priority for Defence industry and give them all the money and everything to work , no cut from those 500+ ptojects.
Ministers don't matter either, it's as simple as that. Turkey is such a country.

What is Hagia Sophia for God's sake...it should either be demolished or remain a church. It is the fault of Fatih Sultan Mehmet.

According to Islam, you should not touch the place of worship of Christians, if you are a conqueror, you can demolish it if you want.
 

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Back in 2020, for the first deployment bill, CHP and IYI rejected voting for it, saying:
IYI:
"Was the Blue Homeland Agreement signed in return for sending troops to Libya? As IYI Party, we cannot be responsible for making our soldiers a clear target of an alliance from Russia to Egypt, and most importantly to General Haftar's forces supported by these countries, where our national security is not under threat."

"20 percent of brotherly Azerbaijan's lands are under occupation, come on, let's go and save there first. There are facts and there are interests. We supported Operation Peace Spring, what happened? You stopped the Turkish army marching like lions with a tweet. You say this is such an important bill, but there is not even a minister here(to defend the bill), it's a shame."

CHP:
"“It is a disaster call prepared to send our Armed Forces to war in the deserts of Libya,” the CHP said for the memorandum. Criticizing the use of the phrase "national interest" instead of "national security" in the memorandum, the CHP said, "Our Armed Forces are not anyone's private security forces, and the sons of the homeland cannot be irresponsibly sent to the deserts of Libya in this way. What will you do when news of martyrdom comes from Libya? Will you comfort your the families of their sons' deaths by saying 'destiny' as it was an ordinary accident?"

Kılıçdaroğlu: "Turkey should take the lead in ensuring stability in the region and put all its diplomatic efforts in this direction"
"The message of CHP Deputy Chairman Ünal Çeviköz was in this direction. Stating that the legitimacy of Turkey's intervention in Libya is controversial in terms of international law, and that there is no United Nations General Assembly resolution that approves this, Çeviköz said, "In order not to face an irreparable situation, contact should be made with both sides, such as Russia and Germany, and diplomatic channels should be kept open.

You will say, what is your suggestion? When we say diplomacy, we mean taking initiative. Since you see the GNA as the legitimate government recognized by the UN in Libya, then invite the UN to take action. As a UN member, Turkey has the right to invite the UN to establish such a UN peacekeeping force and to take a decision on this issue, and to take the lead. Call and say that we, as Turkey, are ready to contribute to such a peacekeeping force. Only then can you be considered a respected international actor. Do you not intend to do this? Then we make this call for you from this lectern."

For the extension of the deployment bill in 2022 CHP rejected it again while IYI supported it.
IYI:
Speaking on behalf of the IYI Party, Aydın deputy Adnan Gezgin justified their vote of "no" to the previous resolution by saying, "Yes, we were against sending Mehmetçik to a war environment". "However, since the end of 2020, due to the ceasefire, there has been no active fighting in Libya," he said, adding that they would "say yes" on the grounds that "our military [is] not in an active combatant position, and that it will "play a deterrent role in terms of conflicts between militias....

The international developments are so grave that the emergence of the impression that the government's space of action in Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean is blocked in this risky environment may lead to some question marks in the foreign world that are not for Turkey's benefit". He added, "We also care about maintaining the morale of our forces in Libya and the Mehmetçik who is on duty abroad [...] and we say "yes(to the bill)"".

CHP:
"We have always been against the second agreement, such as sending soldiers to Libya, which was brought before us as a precondition of the Naval Authorization Agreement(meaning EEZ deal between Libya and Turkey), and the resolution brought after it, and we continue to do so today," he said. "Because we are against the assignment of our Mehmetçik to protect the lands of other countries, except for humanitarian aid operations that have international legitimacy."

I added some parts in parentheses to make it legible in English with context. Sources as follows:


As per Libya Turkey EEZ deal, both IYI and CHP supported it. As for how CHP views it, this communique directly from their website penned by KK's FoPo advisor Çeviköz sums it up nicely:

Some parts are not agreeable, but the last paragraph(about needing to normalize with and get support of Egypt, Israel and Syria) is pretty on point and is what's AKP is trying to do for the past year.
Thank you @Sanchez for your info gathering. Good old fashion journalism here. :)

The last parts of your ‘report’ is important as it displays the inexperience of the major partners of the opposition on both bill proposals.
CHP repeats archaic official state lines from old days when Turkey had good backing up and allies in the west while IYIP at least show some flexible mental power.
They both suffer from the classic Turkish foreign political illness of passive foreign policy. It is based on reactions to perceived actions.

Never active. And Proactive synonymous with aggressive!

No Turkish government has the luxury of leaving this vital geopolitical goal to anyone else anymore I’m afraid. The very actors they would trust with our interest in the past are now all gone and they are the ones that are, in fact, ready to rip us apart.
Every consequent government should realize this fact. This was not our doing and we were engulfed by other actors into this fur-ball. My admittedly a little bit off the line pregnancy analogy was meant to point out this situation.
Turkey was pushed into this and if we give up, we will be confined within the six miles of Aegean coast (if we could keep it like that) while everybody else is harvesting the huge Mediterranean basin freely.
 
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Sanchez

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Want to add another point, this time off my chest as it's semi related. Some do not like "çokbaşlılık" or pluralism when it comes to ruling a state and want a single party, with a single leader to do all the work and be the only voice of the state. This can be a very powerful party in a democratic system like AKP before 2015, it can also be Putin's Russia. In this side of the argument, there's no place for opposition parties to do any work. Everything a country does is the will of the lead and there is no in between.

I, myself fall on the pluralist side of this argument. Again, this can be a coalition of parties, like in Germany, or France. But it can also be like US, where one party wins the election and there is no coalition, but both sides of the aisle has to work together to get things done, be it internally or externally. Thanks to the playing field this generates, leader of the opposition or speaker of the parliament can be a direct part of the actions of the state. Remember when Pelosi visited Taiwan or Armenia. Officially, US government had no say in this but it's a near perfect way to show support without actually doing anything and make your position known. We all know the power a single otherwise unimportant name Menendez can have over FoPo. In the case of the US, to get F-16s, we not only have to get the American president and government to agree to us, but also the opposition, as well as the head of the senate foreign relations committee. Or If this was other way around, anything Putin says goes, you only need to deal with him. I can't be the only one that can see the potential in such an arrangement. Of course, it comes with its own drawbacks and needs a very powerful system which we do not have, but why shouldn't that be a goal, a Turkish pluralist system?

Mine is not a comment on authoritarianism vs democracy. No point on that. But geopolitics is a game of will. Beating 1 is easier than beating 3. Elections notwithstanding, Erdoğan will not be here forever and our national policies are much larger than one single person or party. There needs to be framework where a party won't come in and do it with it as it pleases. We can't let it be just deep state or bureucrats with big power calling the shots. As last 20 years shows us, deep state and even the military can be dismantled from the outside and the current presidential system gives all the power to do so. It is much more harder to dismantle systems rather than pulling out people.

My two cents.
The last parts of your ‘report’ is important as it displays the inexperience of the major partners of the opposition on both bill proposals.
CHP repeats archaic official state lines from old days when Turkey had good backing up and allies in the west while IYIP at least show some flexible mental power.
They both suffer from the classic Turkish foreign political illness of passive foreign policy. It is based on reactions on perceived actions.
To further my point, totally agree on this. Current system does not give any power or say to opposition or other parts of the parliament in foreign policy. They are inexperienced mostly except for some mps with foreign office experience and are out of touch with current realities surrounding us. This is not just about them being lazy or incompetent. System we have literally doesn't allow them, it never did from the beginning. If they were well versed, it'd just be as a hobby, like we do. For the last 20 years, AKP had the reigns and did what it wanted but AKP now can't do what it always did. Outsiders know that getting Erdogan or his closest advisors to agree on you for the most part is enough. What will it be when it's not Erdogan but someone else? It will be someone else, timeframe doesn't matter. It can't go on like this.
 

BalkanTurk90

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Ministers don't matter either, it's as simple as that. Turkey is such a country.

What is Hagia Sophia for God's sake...it should either be demolished or remain a church. It is the fault of Fatih Sultan Mehmet.

According to Islam, you should not touch the place of worship of Christians, if you are a conqueror, you can demolish it if you want.
Bro stop posting nonsense , Hagia Sofia became a Mosque because people around became Muslim like Hagia became a Church when people around became a christian , perhaps some of you dont know but Hagia Sofia was PAGAN TEMPLE .
So its my own right and job what can i do with my home .
As 'accroding to islam' Thousends of churches stayed CHURCH under Ottoman rule throuout Balkans and europe .
 

Ryder

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Bro stop posting nonsense , Hagia Sofia became a Mosque because people around became Muslim like Hagia became a Church when people around became a christian , perhaps some of you dont know but Hagia Sofia was PAGAN TEMPLE .
So its my own right and job what can i do with my home .
As 'accroding to islam' Thousends of churches stayed CHURCH under Ottoman rule throuout Balkans and europe .

It was a Roman Pagan Temple then it became a church and the Church got destroyed and rebuilt to what it is today under Justinian I when the crusaders took Constantinople it became a Catholic Church after the Byzantines got the city back it became a Orthodox Church again.

1453 it became a Mosque under the Ottomans then a museum now a mosque again.

What a wild ride this historical structure had. But winner takes all which is the Turks.
 
E

Era_shield

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There's no such thing as free media...everyone has its own allegiance. Its just the West is better at giving the illusion of freedom than its competitors.
The "West" is a different story but for the majority of the US media, prior to the early 2000s something like this would've been unthinkable. That's not to say they were unbiased, but the culture within journalism in the preceding period strongly valued impartial reporting and this kind of state bootlicking would've been treated with disdain.

The reason for the change is that the media has been taken over by the totalitarian ideology known as Progressivism, aka Rainbow-Marxism, and the state has learned to exploit this in order to control it (and may have even caused it). Hence why media trust has gone from most Americans from all across the spectrum trusting the media to everybody distrusting it except for brainwashed Democrats who are most susceptible to Progressive propaganda:
1681633510421.png
 

TheInsider

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Egypt is a failing country and it is too big to be saved. TR made many mistakes regarding Egypt. We should have stayed neutral against Sisi who cares which general made a coup in Egypt? This is because of the Muslim Brotherhood. IMHO the worst mistake of Turkish ME policy is supporting Muslim Brotherhood. MB is a terrorist organization now. We should have released a light criticism about the coup and should have continued the business. We should have jumped off the MB wagon when Sisi made a successful coup. Egypt also made a big mistake by trying to confront the Turkish military in Libya. Well Sisi is outplayed by KSA, UAE, Russia, and the USA they all said we got your back bro but when shit hit the fan only UAE and Russia sent help. Those got obliterated with TB2s and Kirpi MRAPs. Egypt signed deals with Greece hoping that the EU will ease its economic pain but Egypt has a population of 120 million and is too big to be saved. KSA, UAE is fed up with the failures of Egypt and cut a big portion of financial help. Now Egypt is on a crash course and it is past the point of saving unless a big Arabic effort involving all rich Arabic countries and probably another big financier like China comes and bails them out. IMHO neither the EU nor the US has the appetite for bankrolling Egyptian debt.
 

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Ministers don't matter either, it's as simple as that. Turkey is such a country.

What is Hagia Sophia for God's sake...it should either be demolished or remain a church. It is the fault of Fatih Sultan Mehmet.

According to Islam, you should not touch the place of worship of Christians, if you are a conqueror, you can demolish it if you want.
According to Islam if someone surrenders voluntary then it can remain a church if not then it is acceptable to charge it to a mosque. Why some should had to destroy it? It was almost destroyed before Mehmet Han took Istanbul
Aya Sofia wasn't pagan temple
Someone can say what Islam pr4scribes as long as that person knows what he is talking about.
Example being, in Damascus the main church was converted to the mosque but not in Jerusalem. Because Damascus didn't surrender but Jerusalem did.
It was the ruling of Seyidina Umar Al Faruk RA and he knows Islam better then now days " experts"
 

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