TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[TheInsider]

All of the promises will be forgotten after Sweden's entry. We should not at any cost send the ratification document to the TBMM before all the promises are kept first.

We shouldn't buy/upgrade F-16s from the USA. Those will continue to be a headache for years to come after Sweden enters NATO. Congress is openly hostile to us and Sweden's entry won't change that. Congress will push other terms. Congress will always move the goalpost to another goal. Accept this and we can upgrade your F-16s. Accept that and we will sell you brand new F-16s. Accept this so that we won't stop spare parts delivery. F-16V is basically available to anyone with money unless you are openly hostile to the USA and those mofos sanctioned us, a NATO ally. On top of that Greece will have access to the F-35s to placate them.

Movement freedom/travel without visas will never be granted. It might be available for a limited time and will be stopped after Sweden is accepted to NATO. There is no such clause to stop that.
The Customs Union also benefits the EU so basically they are not making any concession with this. They are just selling it like that.

All of the things about terrorism support etc are big lies. The US continues to arm PKK/YPG while NATO tells us this. The US building an alliance between PKK and Talabani against first Barzani and after that Turkiye.

This is a huge loss for us.

 

[GoatsMilk]

This is a huge loss for us.

just like the refugee deal previously.

He's the best thing that could have happened for the USA, EU and Russia. What a weak and incompetent leader. A hero to the uneducated masses, a nightmare for anyone with the most basic of mental faculties. Absolute disaster. All to be forgotten next week, rinse and repeat.

 

[Lool]

I really wish that Erdo would have at least resisted for another year or so

I said before that Erdo is eventually going to allow Sweden into NATO as the US have trillions of cards to force him to do so; however, the most ironic thing is if Erdo accepted Sweden's entry into NATO just to save his son from the recent lawsuit by both Sweden and the USA

 

[Heartbang]

We dunno what kinda deal Erdogan has struck in the summit, but Greek and Armenian sycophants are seething HARD.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678511808913498112

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678517816310345729

 

[Lool]

We dunno what kinda deal Erdogan has struck in the summit, but Greek and Armenian sycophants are seething HARD.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678511808913498112

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678517816310345729

We seriously need to stop reading shitty greek and armenian propaganda

Regardless of what they think, it is a deal in which Turkey loses everything yet gains nothing. You cant be admitted to the EU in a day and a night but you can admit Sweden into the EU within a fortnight!

What makes ppl confident that the EU will fulfill their pledge to admit Turkey into the EU after Sweden joins NATO? This is literally the refugee deal all over again 8n which Erdogan got tricked badly

Moreover, the moment Turkey joins the EU it will be subjected to direct orders from the EU parliament where applicable and this might include the release of radical PKK terrorists from prisons or even the withdrawal of Turkey from Syria etc

Finally, the dispute regarding the Med East EEZ with Greece still hasnt been resolved and only God knows where that will end

I just see no way in which Turkey benefits from this deal

 

[AWP]

Why everyone acting shocked for this ? I mean we all know at one point that Turkey would allow Sweden to enter Nato . What power do Turkey have ? Powerful EU countries changed their policy to flatter the US

RTE made the economy a shithole and if Turkey refused Sweden , any economical threat even from Alzheimer Biden will send Lira to the shit .

At the end of the day , if you have a powerful army to facd pkk/ypg but still a pussy fearing the West then the problem is not the West .

Turkey always wanted some sort of cover or a shoulder to cry like in 2015 and 2020 .

If RTE had 1% of his Sensei courage he would be great .

 

[Lool]

Why everyone acting shocked for this ? I mean we all know at one point that Turkey would allow Sweden to enter Nato . What power do Turkey have ? Powerful EU countries changed their policy to flatter the US

RTE made the economy a shithole and if Turkey refused Sweden , any economical threat even from Alzheimer Biden will send Lira to the shit .

At the end of the day , if you have a powerful army to facd pkk/ypg but still a pussy fearing the West then the problem is not the West .

Turkey always wanted some sort of cover or a shoulder to cry like in 2015 and 2020 .

If RTE had 1% of his Sensei courage he would be great .

Fuck you Erdogan

I agree with a lot of facts but......"Pussy fearing the West?"

Do you people know what the "West" represent? Why are you acting as if thry are some sort of overinflated back alley bully

 

[godel44]

The issue is not fearing the West. There is nobody in NATO except the US that could permanently deny Sweden membership, including European countries with good economies. The issue is not even trying to extract promises on other topics. EU tries to blackmail Turkey daily anyway. Any promises we gained would always have tricky enforcement but I'm sure mechanisms are thought of to make it as reliable as possible.

The issue is Erdogan saying this stuff publicly. I am sure Europeans try to force much cruder blackmail on Turkey behind closed doors but the operative phrase is behind closed doors. When you look like you want to publicly trade NATO membership for EU, you look like a shifty merchant. It hurts the legitimacy of your valid claims such as Sweden supporting terror.

Erdogan has an abrasive, argumentative style that is obnoxious to many westerners. Much of the reason the western countries don't even consider the Turkish perspectives on issues we are extremely justified in, such as terror in Syria and EEZ issues with Greece, is because Erdogan's image is too negative in their eyes. Any western public opinion shift will not be possible with Erdogan in charge. Thankfully we are strong enough that our vital interests are not dependent on western public opinion. But it wouldn't hurt to have Erdogan behaving like a professional diplomat once in a while. The UKR-RUS balance was going pretty well, for example.

 

[Lool]

The issue is not fearing the West. There is nobody in NATO except the US that could permanently deny Sweden membership, including European countries with good economies. The issue is not even trying to extract promises on other topics. EU tries to blackmail Turkey daily anyway. Any promises we gained would always have tricky enforcement but I'm sure mechanisms are thought of to make it as reliable as possible.

The issue is Erdogan saying this stuff publicly. I am sure Europeans try to force much cruder blackmail on Turkey behind closed doors but the operative phrase is behind closed doors. When you look like you want to publicly trade NATO membership for EU, you look like a shifty merchant. It hurts the legitimacy of your valid claims such as Sweden supporting terror.

Erdogan has an abrasive, argumentative style that is obnoxious to many westerners. Much of the reason the western countries don't even consider the Turkish perspectives on issues we are extremely justified in, such as terror in Syria and EEZ issues with Greece, is because Erdogan's image is too negative in their eyes. Any western public opinion shift will not be possible with Erdogan in charge. Thankfully we are strong enough that our vital interests are not dependent on western public opinion. But it wouldn't hurt to have Erdogan behaving like a professional diplomat once in a while. The UKR-RUS balance was going pretty well, for example.

Not really
EU doesnt consider Turkey's perspective on issues like Syria, PKK/YPG, and terrorism is because they are the ones who are financing such radical groups in order to destabilise Turkey in the first place before even Erdogan was made president or prime minister

USA was the one that formed the PKK in the 70s (I believe) in order to destabilise Turkey. Greece used to give its own lands as military bases for training and countries like France, Germany, and Sweden not only financed the PKK but are also suspected of financing Isis


The game is way bigger than you think and the reason for all this is that Turkey is weak to pursue its own interests while those who destabilise Turkey are the ones who control the current world order! The decades of inaction by the Ottomans and after Ataturk till now haunts Turkiye and the Turks till this date

 

[godel44]

Not really
EU doesnt consider Turkey's perspective on issues like Syria, PKK/YPG, and terrorism is because they are the ones who are financing such radical groups in order to destabilise Turkey in the first place before even Erdogan was made president or prime minister

USA was the one that formed the PKK in the 70s (I believe) in order to destabilise Turkey. Greece used to give its own lands as military bases for training and countries like France, Germany, and Sweden not only financed the PKK but are also suspected of financing Isis


The game is way bigger than you think and the reason for all this is that Turkey is weak to pursue its own interests while those who destabilise Turkey are the ones who control the current world order! The decades of inaction by the Ottomans and after Ataturk till now haunts Turkiye and the Turks till this date

Not really. It was the Soviets who set up the PKK to destabilize a frontier NATO country with a Marxist group but it doesn't matter now. I am talking about the public opinion. The support of West for the PKK is due to the bad image of Turkey in their eyes and the freedom-loving feminist, environmentalist image the PKK (or "the Kurds" as they like to call them) cultivated. Public opinion is what moves these matter rather than realpolitik. If the public hated PKK as much as they hated ISIS the Western governments would not be able to support PKK as openly to this extent. There is no shadowy group running world politics. It's just a mess of perceptions aimed at gullible populations.

 

[Saithan]

According to Arda Zentürk the economic woes of Turkey is to blame for the cavein. If you think of how much trade we have with EU I think it makes sense.

Sweden to actively support Türkiye’s EU bid - Türkiye News

A joint statement issued by Türkiye, Sweden and NATO stipulates the Nordic state’s active support towards reviving the former’s stalled accession process into the European Union in return for getting the green light to join the security alliance.

www.hurriyetdailynews.com

Erdoğan upped the stakes, demanding that the European Union revive Türkiye's stalled EU membership bid as a precondition for Sweden joining NATO.

Seriously, what has he even accomplished in reforms ever since the goddamn coup for him to talk about EU membership, nothing.

He's raped Türkiyes economy and brought it to this point and put the noose of the gallow on the country's neck himself.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678681459241160705

Daily Sabah

 

[dBSPL]

The US had set the 2023 NATO leaders' summit as a deadline 3-4 months ago. So today. The US failed to achieve this, but TR announced that it would submit the decision to the parliament, that is, at the presidential level, it announced that it approved Sweden's membership under the conditions set.

Parliament may vote on the resolution in early October. In the first two weeks until October 17, the 2023 budget bill will be proposed, so the vote on this resolution could be postponed until late October or early November. We have at least 3 months ahead of us. This is enough time to see what will happen and what will not happen. Also, read Devlet Bahçeli's recent statement carefully. He very clearly reaffirmed his stance against this decision. Unless this is a rupture in the government wing, and there is not much argument to support that at the moment, there are other calculations at play.

 

[B_A]

Not really. It was the Soviets who set up the PKK to destabilize a frontier NATO country with a Marxist group but it doesn't matter now. I am talking about the public opinion. The support of West for the PKK is due to the bad image of Turkey in their eyes and the freedom-loving feminist, environmentalist image the PKK (or "the Kurds" as they like to call them) cultivated. Public opinion is what moves these matter rather than realpolitik. If the public hated PKK as much as they hated ISIS the Western governments would not be able to support PKK as openly to this extent. There is no shadowy group running world politics. It's just a mess of perceptions aimed at gullible populations.

Leftist always had support in West,even in cold war age,lot s of westerners,even the elites support Marxist ,even in japan there were Marxist Japan red army.

Meanwhile the extremist religious organization such as ISIS of cos dislike by them

 

[akrepon]

The US had set the 2023 NATO leaders' summit as a deadline 3-4 months ago. So today. The US failed to achieve this, but TR announced that it would submit the decision to the parliament, that is, at the presidential level, it announced that it approved Sweden's membership under the conditions set.

Parliament may vote on the resolution in early October. In the first two weeks until October 17, the 2023 budget bill will be proposed, so the vote on this resolution could be postponed until late October or early November. We have at least 3 months ahead of us. This is enough time to see what will happen and what will not happen. Also, read Devlet Bahçeli's recent statement carefully. He very clearly reaffirmed his stance against this decision. Unless this is a rupture in the government wing, and there is not much argument to support that at the moment, there are other calculations at play.

I hope you are right my friend. But to be completely honest with you it won't be the case. We will be deceived once again. I am sorry to say that but I agree with some of the members about leaders having courage...

 

[dBSPL]

I hope you are right my friend. But to be completely honest with you it won't be the case. We will be deceived once again. I am sorry to say that but I agree with some of the members about leaders having courage...

I am just trying to put the developments in a logical framework. I don't claim to be right, and I could probably be wrong about a lot of things.

Bahçeli's statement on the issue and his clear statement on the unacceptability of the situation is an important detail. He even went further and said that Parliament should work until September without going into recess. This is also an important detail. If we taking into account their other statements (improving the living conditions of pensioners, etc.), Bahçeli started to do what the opposition could not do, at least in terms of rhetoric.

MHP support is essential for a simple majority. If the CHP supports it and not the MHP, it means that the government has already fallen. Even within the AKP, the situation is not clear and the reactions after the decision reminding me of failed March 1st decree.

The Turkish Presidency gave the green light to Sweden's NATO membership, but the leader of the main supporting structure that made it possible for the President to be there gave the red light. On the other hand, while the White House had set the July summit as the deadline, Stoltenberg said that the process in the Turkish Parliament should be respected, in a sense pointing to October.

Other topics: What about the Ukraine war from a geopolitical perspective? Is Russia winning or losing? How far can TR delay Sweden's accession and at what point can it jeopardize its gains and at what point can it produce the best benefits. I will skip these discussions as they are a bit subjective.

The most important issue that attracts my attention at this stage is the repercussions on domestic politics. Something is happening, either deep rifts will emerge or there are other calculations, I am not sure for now. Meanwhile, our main opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu says that Selahattin Demirtaş and Osman Kavala is Turkiye's path to the EU. God must give this country a proper opposition first, nothing will happen before that. RTE is a big Atlanticist, he was well restrained until now. In this respect, the current cabinet gave him room for maneuver. But the problem is that the alternative to his position was worse than him.

 

[Zafer]

Erdoğan will surely use this trump card to its maximum value, there is no doubt.

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678672069549015042

Erdogan has no one to bail out the economy

 

[Bozan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678775175989571585

Sending Syrian refugees home - it's likely there will be more coming from Idlib instead.

Also note the US did not make any such effort, they are not in favour of the factions that Turkey is with in the NW.

Russia's veto - I think it is linked to Erdogan's statements. This is likely going to be another foreign policy problem.

 

[Chakib.Y]

Sounds like a good deal

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1678343576357404673

after turkey becomes an EU member
Erdogan: now milk me a pigeon, after that i'll think about it