TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Barry]

Turkey kinda gave the middle finger to Russia with this move

at the same time bent over and spread cheeks for Sweden and Finland. What a win.

 

[what]

What did you guys expect? That Turkey could dictate laws in Sweden? Or that Turkey could force Sweden to bypass their judiciary?

It was always going to be something like this. Words and promises.

 

[Cenkcnk]

we got s*hit as always with their "1000 years old state mind"
tbh I wasn't expecting more from those people who even couldn't get the planes that they already paid for

 

[GoatsMilk]

What did you guys expect? That Turkey could dictate laws in Sweden? Or that Turkey could force Sweden to bypass their judiciary?

It was always going to be something like this. Words and promises.

I expected a mechanism that allows Turkey to pull the plug at any time on them should they revert course.

tomorrow Russia attacks Finland and Turkey is expected to support her with her army, while the fins support terrorists against us?

We must be a nation of muppets.

Erdogan said we wont make the same mistake that we made in letting greece back in, while you made the exact same mistake.

 

[Glass🚬]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541885282252898312

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541895133272186880

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541896491018715138

 

[what]

I expected a mechanism that allows Turkey to pull the plug at any time on them should they revert course.

tomorrow Russia attacks Finland and Turkey is expected to support her with her army, while the fins support terrorists against us?

We must be a nation of muppets.

Erdogan said we wont make the same mistake that we made in letting greece back in, while you made the exact same mistake.

There's no such thing or mechanism in NATO, once you're in you're in. I'm not trying to defend the AKP or Erdogan, never would, but thats all you get.

Instead of doing it discrete and addressing Turkeys demands in private, they went public and thats all you can get in public. A document that looks like winning to all 3 sides.

As if any country in the world would agree to: yes we're going to change our laws, judiciary and also join an alliance but give one country the button to kick us out whenever they please. This was bound to be a political stunt from the start.

What is Erdogan getting in return? He's polling 5% higher now, but in two months time people will remember: shit, I'm staying because of that guys decision.

 

[Glass🚬]

There's no such thing or mechanism in NATO, once you're in you're in.

then u will have them cease their support for terror orgs and afterwards allow u in but u dont sign a piece of paper, a mou and then watch them join and follow their policies as usual which result in the deaths of turks, thats really not the way to handle things.

on top of that these 2 are among the countries that are within russian cross hairs and once they are in nato, and they are already feeling the heat, they will come and cry for nato and guess which country will have to support? daddy america focused on scs,sea and asia in general, they dont give a shit about europe lel

 

[CAN_TR]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541865826747392006

 

[Glass🚬]

but this whole disaster has also to do with the boomers and their pink glasses, they are clinging to nato and eu and refuse to accept that they are being fooled over and over. Seperate policies need to be followed, they need to open up to china, work out long term deals etc this whole naivety with the eu needs to stop once and for all, they cant be that fcked up inside their brains.

 

[Nilgiri]

I expected a mechanism that allows Turkey to pull the plug at any time on them should they revert course.

How would that even be possible though?

NATO is one time entry....once you are in you are in. Any ejection process should have been stipulated in the charter (and it would apply to any member incl Turkey)....but it hasnt.

There is thus no "trust but verify" mechanism possible here on the post-entry aspect of prospectives/pledges to this kind of club (i.e once they are members, its a fait accompli for them, no other member can boot them out).

Only thing Turkey could have done as explicit mechanism is exit NATO itself in retaliation for any PKK/YPG stuff it sees still going on with Sweden and Finland.

That of course brings own consequences to Turkey too (as does all us or them kind of situation)....not to mention what is then the larger precedent of not having done this already given Turkish fairly explicit accusation on western involvement at large with these groups. i.e the uncomfortable nature of NATO alliance in the current timeframe that stands out in TR's case the most by far.

Or it could have stuck to haunches and said absolute no to Sweden and Finland joining NATO till it gets concrete deliverables (legal cases filed and the said PKK/YPG people deported to Turkey for prosecution or something of that manner).

But that is not a mechanism but just stronger concrete precondition stance taken.

Only thing left is words, tokenism and promises ..."time spent/invested" (we didn't allow immediately etc etc) and how you sell all of that to some audience/voters.

That voting audience ultimately needs greater vision and maturity of the reality and their country's core interests and objectives .... and what is the actual intersection of their politicians/institutions/powerbrokers with these. This is a worldwide phenomenon though (in democracies).

 

[Fuzuli NL]

So shameful that they start joking about it in the comment section.

I can't believe how easily they got away with it.
What's Türkiye going to do if they don't fulfil these "victorious" steps? Nothing is the answer.
Also Türkiye's position in NATO is jeopardised.

 

[GoatsMilk]

How would that even be possible though?

NATO is one time entry....once you are in you are in. Any ejection process should have been stipulated in the charter (and it would apply to any member incl Turkey)....but it hasnt.

There is thus no "trust but verify" mechanism possible here on the post-entry aspect of prospectives/pledges to this kind of club (i.e once they are members, its a fait accompli for them, no other member can boot them out).

Only thing Turkey could have done as explicit mechanism is exit NATO itself in retaliation for any PKK/YPG stuff it sees still going on with Sweden and Finland.

I'm sure they could have put a special clause in there. The EU puts special clauses in just to target Turkish membership in the organisation. Like every state gets to have an independent referendum on whether Turkey joins or not should they finally look to accept Turkey in.

Personally the right thing would be to reject their membership, then the ball is in NATO's court. Turkey leaving on her own terms makes it too easy for them. If they kick Turkey out then so be it, but i don't see that happening they cannot afford Turkey aligning with Russia. Just imagine if Turkey sold Russia TB2's instead of Ukraine and allowed Russia unhindered access into the black sea and restricted NATO access instead.

At some point you got to hold your ground, the west is openly mocking Turkey these days. Its only going to keep getting worse the more you capitulate.

 

[GoatsMilk]

I can't believe how easily they got away with it.
What's Türkiye going to do if they don't fulfil these "victorious" steps? Nothing is the answer.
Also Türkiye's position in NATO is jeopardised.

Yep you let in another 2 nations who are openly hostile to you. In NATO they will find it easier to harm Turkey then they did outside of it.

 

[Glass🚬]

Yep you let in another 2 nations who are openly hostile to you. In NATO they will find it easier to harm Turkey then they did outside of it.

^this but 200%

 

[Nilgiri]

I'm sure they could have put a special clause in there. The EU puts special clauses in just to target Turkish membership in the organisation. Like every state gets to have an independent referendum on whether Turkey joins or not should they finally look to accept Turkey in.

Personally the right thing would be to reject their membership, then the ball is in NATO's court. Turkey leaving on her own terms makes it too easy for them. If they kick Turkey out then so be it, but i don't see that happening they cannot afford Turkey aligning with Russia. Just imagine if Turkey sold Russia TB2's instead of Ukraine and allowed Russia unhindered access into the black sea and restricted NATO access instead.

At some point you got to hold your ground, the west is openly mocking Turkey these days. Its only going to keep getting worse the more you capitulate.

EU is a very different setup to NATO.

Just like UN is very different setup to EU.....so all kind of wiggle room clauses pop up in multilateral/international organisations wherever things are not clearly defined and its "forum/economics first" setup.

NATO is quite specific defined corridor on these things. It has to be since it is mutual collective security-oriented first and only, and made in backdrop of WW2 and the looming cold war that was to happen.

There is no special clause that can be done like in case of EU, UN or whatever else.....they are just completely different raison d'etre at the root of it.

Turkish seasoned diplomats know this stuff very well (what NATO is, inside out) and would know how best to handle this precision with precision of their own (in the precondition setup for pledges).....

......but they needed sound and consistent instruction and guidance from the executive branch of govt (and good ability to advise them and give feedback and be listened to)....for at least the last decade or two.

If that has failed (and executive is somehow aligned to politics/geopolitics that dont tie with the core interests in some sufficient amount), their seasoned hands are largely tied by this chain of command.... and you just stuck to watching the same thing play out that you already saw and dont like seeing.

 

[I_Love_F16]

Iranian joke :

‘’Turkiye’s safety means Iran’s safety’’

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1541686139211358210

 

[borchadinho]

Yep you let in another 2 nations who are openly hostile to you. In NATO they will find it easier to harm Turkey then they did outside of it.

How does this guy bash previous governments for letting Greece back into the military wing of NATO and then go to turn back on his word 30 days later. And people still fall for it.

Would have been better to just stay quite then this sh*t show. We need strong institutions, diplomats, think tanks not plagued by ideology to guide politicians and states persons. This is what happens when everyone is looking up to one man and everyone's job is on the line based on his desires. It kills any ability for innovation and thinking outside of the box.

The vagueness of the document, separating of PKK from YPG/PYD also begs the question of competency.

Just look at who they hired as a translator in private meetings between heads of state. Says alot about our situation.

We lost a great opportunity, we will see in a years time on TV "two faced Sweden didn't keep its promise".

 

[GoatsMilk]

e like in case of EU, UN or whatever else.....they are just completely different raison d'etre at the root of it.

Ok, why not say they have to do all these things now and then show good behaviour for 2 years and we can come back and evaluate the application? There was no law that they needed to join immediately.

 

[I_Love_F16]

@GoatsMilk AKP supporters are already celebrating this as a ‘’victory’’ on Twitter lol. Real sheeps. No wonder the country is sinking.

 

[Nilgiri]

Ok, why not say they have to do all these things now and then show good behaviour for 2 years and we can come back and evaluate the application? There was no law that they needed to join immediately.

Sure, thats what I mean by precondition stringency + toughness. i.e not a mechanism (available within NATO) per se, but definitely a clause that TR sticks to at least for the two new entrants where it could do so if it wanted to (compared to those that are doing the same but already NATO members).

There has obviously been some kind of actual reluctance to do that (in TR executive branch) past the words/statements etc and/or caving to pressure applied.

You will notice in the word document that Sweden and Finland also do not own up to having provided any support/harbour to PKK/YPG....just that they "commit to" not doing so (like they say they are already doing, and onus is on TR to prove in court process that they are not).

When it comes to any legal case in these two countries, TR or plaintiff it elects will have to show, prove and get conviction that the defendant as being PKK/YPG (and then the respective countries official apparatus elements being involved in such, which would likely need an international court past that).

There is lot of legal cover and legalese that makes this hard (or it would have already been done since PKK at least is already proscribed as terror group by EU framework).

That is already current legal framework and process in existence that TR has to meander through to try get concrete results, nothing more has been added or taken away.

Given this wordology and reality (beyond the words)......simple tough precondition for TR to adjudge on for itself would have been the strongest prudent option from the Turkish interest perspective....and like you say not cave into some urgency for anothers NATO membership (given bilateral security arrangements they can make in interim more than fulfill that void anyway).

If it hasn't been done, that is something Turkish population should look into and hold their elected officials accountable.