TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[GoatsMilk]

I see nothing bad in Erdogan making deals that are in favor of Turkey even if they are with Russia and I say that as a guy who doesn't like neither Erdogan nor Putinists.

You guys are way too emotional and see things without trying to go deeper. If Turkey was the one attacked you wouldn't see a single European country sanction Russia over it so why should Turks not look for their own interests.

Make as many Russians (huge majority of those who come in Turkey now are upper class and well educated ones) as possible come to Turkey- let them pump their money and knowledge in the Turkish economy. Turkey wins from this while Russia loses.
Make natural gas deals with Russia and make Russians build as much pipelines and gas hubs in Turkey as they want. That will make them even more dependent on Turkey as the only big customer they have left in Europe. As long as they are the ones building the infrastructure from their pockets I see no problem. Plus Russia now is desperate so I am sure that it will be easy to buy gas on preferential prices too.
Many European companies left Russia so where is the problem if Turkish businesses try to fill some of the gaps left?

None of these deals help us in the long term. The more you make yourself dependent on Russia the easier it is for them to manipulate us. Europeans learned this recently with the gas politics.

If you want to make deals, the deals need to give us leverage not Russia. For example you buy more gas from Russia, if they need to manipulate us they cut it for a period of time. It has little effect on them but massive effects on Turkey. Not one pipeline Russia laid down on a 3rd nation was used against her, they were all used against Russian foes.

We are not making Russia dependent on us by giving them these sorts of deals. We make Turkey dependent on them. This is why no matter how many deals erdogan makes with Russia, they still looks to screw us. In Syria they back the PKK, in Libya they side with Haftar, in Azerbaijan they were giving Armenia free weapons and threatening us not to do anything. Meanwhile when the peace came even though Turkeys side won, the Russians still cut us out of the peace negations.

I could go on and on, we see nowhere where any of deals are helping Turkey, to the contrary they make it much harder for us to defend our interests against Russia.

Turks need to get this fantasy out of there head that we are making Russia dependent on us, we are not in no way whatsoever. We are being used as a tool of convenience, even then Russia does us no favours in any of our regional interests.

Show me one place where this illusion of russian dependence has helped us in our geopolitical concerns? Syria? nope. Libya? nope, Azerbaijan, Nope. Balkans, Nope, Cyprus, Nope, central asia, Nope.

yeah but were making Russia dependent on us, sorry as much as i respect you that is nothing but an illusion.

Also keep in mind the more options you give Russia, the easier it is for them to screw Europe and others, which makes their safer and stronger. Actually by allowing Russia to hedge her fears by using Turkey, you screw Turkey twice as hard. Because now Russia has more leverage against Turkey, but she is also protected from other 3rd party nations because she has more options.

Much of the world is screwing Russia right now and erdogan turned Turkey into a safe zone for them, madness. Outside of Ukraine the only other nation Russia has tried to screw as had has been Turkey.

I've learnt enough and seen enough in my lifetime to know that nothing good comes from russia concerning politics, nothing. Every nation who fell for her tricks ends up regretting it.

Especially since the jet downing Turkey should have been doing everything to limit her economic exposure to Russia. I sometimes suspect the reasons he's so quick to take russian money is because of the terrible shape the Turkish economy is. Just like with the UAE who he accused of being behind the coup, for investment he will do anything.

 

[Lool]

This conversation is taking a retarded path tbh
Just for clarification
Turkish lives arent only cheap in Russia's eyes but in the West as well

Have you forgotten when some EU MPs said that Turkey can aid Ukraine by sending its own troops to the conflict, during the first month of the war, as if turks were some sort of disposables? Have you forgotten how the West didnt even move to protect Turkey (a NATO member) when it downed a Russian jet within Turkish airspace? Have you forgotten the TSK soldiers who were killed in Al-Watiyah Airbase in libya; when mighty France aided Russia by sending jets to kill TSK soldiers? Why arent you people talking about the TSK lives lost during such events? Are the TSK soldiers who died during the Russian strike in Syria more precious than the TSK soldiers who died during the French strike in Libya?

Why are people so quick to shit on Russia when the West did exactly the same thing by supporting PKK with weapons that killed Turkish citizens for nearly 10 years or more?

We keep saying that having relations with Russia is a mistake as Russians always lie but isnt it the same with many western countries like France, Greece, USA, Germany, and Sweden?

Iam not saying to go full pro-Russia and ditch the West, but reading the comments of how Turkey should just ditch Russia because they are deemed "bad" by western standards is just stupid. Honestly it is nothing short of a farce!

There is nothing wrong with co-operating with Russia for money, let them build a gas hub since Russian gas is cheap anyway; most closed EU businesses within Europe are relocating to Turkey because Turkey still buys cheap Russian gas. At the same time, Western companies within Russia are moving to Turkey to evade sanctions. Furthermore, Turkey preserved a bit of the Russian tourist customer base which pumps money into the country. Many Russian engineers have moved to Turkey just a month after the war began

For those who dont know, even if Russia lost this war, it wont cease to exist. Russia still has the cheapest and largest gas reserves in the world and is one of the richest nations in terms of resources. In addition to that, many nations will continue to have good relations with Russia no matter what from the Gulf and Med East to China.... period!

Why should Turkey just cut relations to appear as "good" within the west just for it to be the prime Western enemy again after this war is over! And yes! I believe that the EU believes that Ukrainian blood is more precious than Turkish blood. The amount of support the West gave to Ukraine in 9 months is greater than the amount of support Turkey received in nearly 100 bloody years!

 

[Heartbang]

This conversation is taking a retarded path tbh
Just for clarification
Turkish lives arent only cheap in Russia's eyes but in the West as well

Have you forgotten when some EU MPs said that Turkey can aid Ukraine by sending its own troops to the conflict, during the first month of the war, as if turks were some sort of disposables? Have you forgotten how the West didnt even move to protect Turkey (a NATO member) when it downed a Russian jet within Turkish airspace? Have you forgotten the TSK soldiers who were killed in Al-Watiyah Airbase in libya; when mighty France aided Russia by sending jets to kill TSK soldiers? Why arent you people talking about the TSK lives lost during such events? Are the TSK soldiers who died during the Russian strike in Syria more precious than the TSK soldiers who died during the French strike in Libya?

Why are people so quick to shit on Russia when the West did exactly the same thing by supporting PKK with weapons that killed Turkish citizens for nearly 10 years or more?

Iam not saying to go full pro-Russia, but reading the comments of how Turkey should just ditch Russia because they are deemed "bad" by western standards is just stupid. Honestly it is nothing short of a farce!

There is nothing wrong with co-operating with Russia for money, let them build a gas hub since Russian gas is cheap anyway; most closed EU businesses within Europe are relocating to Turkey because Turkey still buys cheap Russian gas. At the same time, Western companies within Russia are moving to Turkey to evade sanctions. Furthermore, Turkey preserved a bit of the Russian tourist customer base which pumps money into the country. Many Russian engineers have moved to Turkey just a month after the war began

For those who dont know, even if Russia lost this war, it wont cease to exist. Russia still has the cheapest and largest gas reserves in the world and is one of the richest nations in terms of resources. In addition to that, many nations will continue to have good relations with Russia no matter what from the Gulf and Med East to China.... period!

Why should Turkey just cut relations to appear as "good" within the west just for it to be the prime Western enemy again after this war is over! And yes! I believe that the EU believes that Ukrainian blood is more precious than Turkish blood. The amount of support the West gave to Ukraine in 9 months is greater than the amount of support Turkey received in nearly 100 bloody years!

we the Turks are truly in the grips of such a pathetic mindset that even the mere mention of covering and fighting for our own interests makes a lot of our own shriek and recoil in shock and horror. shame on us for staying in our comfort zones and not waking up from our slumber soon enough.

if Ataturk woke up tomorrow and have read what some of y'all wrote here, he'd spit on each and everyone of your faces.

 

[Ravenman]

why?

Look at all the shows and events from big artists, all cancelled around the World Cup. Turkish militairy who's gonna provide security around the World Cup. And some old texts from more than 1000 years old about a 'catastrophic event on the Arab peninsula'.

Rest my case.

 

[Ryder]

Geopolitics makes for strange bed fellows.

You will be at each others throats and the next day its all forgotten

 

[Fuzuli NL]

the location of the gas hub is sketchy at best, it'll be another reason for Greece to YOLO their way in :/

And we're just gonna watch them and let them do it, yeah?

 

[Heartbang]

And we're just gonna watch them and let them do it, yeah?

of course not. but it would be an excellent reason to do so. Greeks are eyeing to be the gas hub of the Europe. having that hub or destroying it would help them in that regard.

 

[Ryder]

Gas and Oil wont be going anytime soon.

People need to drop this bs that the whole world will go electric as other alternatives are being tested and experimented like e fuel, biofuels and synthetic oil.

Also Toyota has been testing a ICE engine with hydrogen.

 

[Ryder]

Turkiye should try its best to be the gas and oil hub in its region.

Dont listen to tree huggers.

 

[Lool]

Turkey needs to kick Menendez out by any means
That guy feels more like a Greek MP rather than an American one

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581123045678206976

 

[GoatsMilk]

Turkiye should try its best to be the gas and oil hub in its region.

Dont listen to tree huggers.

Just as long as Russia is not the primary supplier. If you didnt turn yourself into a gas hub, you turned yourself into a russian supplied gas station in which russia has many to the west, south and east of her. If she shuts you down for a while, it wont effect her. If you shut it down it only harms yourself. Russia should only ever be a small part of that.

Energy has been Russias number one geopolitical weapon, its never just business its also about creating leverage for Russia against her foes. And Turkey as seen in everywhere we have interests is seen as a major foe of Russia.

Even that Turk stream looks like its put in such a way that should Turkey ever misbehave it can be rerouted into Bulgaria. Or in the future if a war ever comes from our west the connection point can be occupied.

Honestly it fascinates me how many Turks can still be tricked by Russia. Literally the other day they forcing their Turkic minorities to go and die in Ukraine, meanwhile we think Russians are so dumb as to enter into agreements with Turkey that gives Turkey leverage against her. On the war front no doubts the russians are jokers, but when it comes to these dirty games they are number one.

When it concerns Russia the rational move should have been to limit our economic exposure to russia so that should we need to move in any of the multiple theatres in which the Russian army directly opposes us, they would have few tools to use against us. Instead erdogan did the opposite, using our weak point energy and delegating it more and more into the hands of the Russians.

Its interesting because in Turkey media is celebrating Putins declaration about "maybe" turning Turkey into a gas hub. While geopolitical analysts in the UK understand that this move gives Russia great leverage over Turkey and not the other way around.

One thing i have to give the British establishment, you cannot fool them anywhere near the way you can fool the Turkish establishment. I suspect this is why Britian has been so aggressively against Russia, they fully see them for what they are.

 

[Afif]

Just as long as Russia is not the primary supplier. If they are you didnt turn yourself into a gas hub, you turned yourself into a russian supplied gas station in which russia has many to the west, south and east of her. If she shuts you down for a while, it wont effect her. If you shut it down it only harms yourself. Russia should only ever be a small part of that.

Energy has been Russias number one geopolitical weapon, its never just business its also about creating leverage for Russia against her foes. And Turkey as seen in everywhere we have interests is seen as a major foe of Russia.

Even that Turk stream looks like its put in such a way that should Turkey ever misbehave it can be rerouted into Bulgaria. Or in the future if a war ever comes from our west the connection point can be occupied.

Honestly it fascinates me how many Turks can still be tricked by Russia. Literally the other day they forcing their Turkic minorities to go and die in Ukraine, meanwhile we think Russians are so dumb as to enter into agreements with Turkey that gives Turkey leverage against her. On the war front no doubts the russians are jokers, but when it comes to these dirty games they are number one.

When it concerns Russia the rational move should have been to limit our economic exposure to russia so that should we need to move in any of the multiple theatres in which the Russian army directly opposes us, they would have few tools to use against us. Instead erdogan did the opposite, using our weak point energy and delegating it more and more into the hands of the Russians.

Its interesting because in Turkey media is celebrating Putins declaration about "maybe" turning Turkey into a gas hub. While geopolitical analysts in the UK understand that this move gives Russia great leverage over Turkey and not the other way around.

One thing i have to give the British establishment, you cannot fool them anywhere near the way you can fool the Turkish establishment. I suspect this is why Britian has been so aggressively against Russia, they fully see them for what they are.

I think being a russian gas hub is only a temporary move!

Sucking out as much as gas possible from Russia in a moment when they are the one who is most vulnerable! Making russia and Europe strategically dependent on turkey for next couple of winter or may be three ( the war and the immediate aftermath ) by using the already existing insfrastructures and then, by and large replacing russia rapidly with central asian turkic and israeli pipelines for turkey's need and europe's. ( of course, in that case the new insfrastructures will required in a long run along with the current ones )

In that way, russia will loose it leverage in a long run and yet europe will remain strategically dependent on turkey. because we all know, turkey is the only other logical choice for europe for the energy security.

And I think, a good and calculative short term and long term planning and the careful execution of it will bring the best for turkey. The turkish establishment just need to hang on tight !

 

[Anastasius]

If you want to stop relying on Russian oil and gas, then back the Western powers in dismembering Russia so you can grab their resources for yourself in the subsequent scramble. Either go all in or don't.

"B-b-but the West is mean too..."

So? Doesn't mean you can't use them to knock one enemy out of the equation entirely. It's basic warfare 101. Putin is weak, squeeze him for all he's got and crush him, don't give him a lifeline.

 

[Afif]

If you want to stop relying on Russian oil and gas, then back the Western powers in dismembering Russia so you can grab their resources for yourself in the subsequent scramble. Either go all in or don't.

"B-b-but the West is mean too..."

So? Doesn't mean you can't use them to knock one enemy out of the equation entirely. It's basic warfare 101. Putin is weak, squeeze him for all he's got and crush him, don't give him a lifeline.

Who do you think will be on the line next if russia is knocked out completely ?
I don't think complete crush is a very good idea. As long is your adversaries at each other's throats good for you! Don't take side too strongly that you have to bleed alongside them.
It is not playing both side, it is only playing your side.

But most importantly, I don't see how it is practically possible to dismember russia physically or grab their resources even when they are vulnerable, like right now.

 

[TR_123456]

we the Turks are truly in the grips of such a pathetic mindset that even the mere mention of covering and fighting for our own interests makes a lot of our own shriek and recoil in shock and horror. shame on us for staying in our comfort zones and not waking up from our slumber soon enough.

if Ataturk woke up tomorrow and have read what some of y'all wrote here, he'd spit on each and everyone of your faces.

Can you elaborate what exactly you meant?
Your post is to vage.

 

[Baryshx]

Works for Turkmenistan natural gas continue, this will relieve us. Last July, 72-item cooperation agreements were signed in various fields, especially natural gas and agriculture. Also, there is Azerbaijan in the Work.

 

[dBSPL]

Works for Turkmenistan natural gas continue, this will relieve us. Last July, 72-item cooperation agreements were signed in various fields, especially natural gas and agriculture. Also, there is Azerbaijan in the Work.

The realization of the trans-Caspian pipeline and the doubling or tripling of TANAP's capacity with a parallel line will create a situation that will have far more strategic implications than the gas cooperation currently being negotiated with Russia.

*

If we look at the trade figures in more detail, we can see that the trade of countries such as Italy with Russia has not stopped completely, but this trade volume is now mostly circulating through Turkiye. It is the only main open line for companies that want to continue their trade with Russia in the EU region. As like that, for Russia, the main route to continue its trade with the EU passes through TR. There is a situation that has not yet been discussed in the mainstream media; Russians are by far the biggest buyer of real estate in Turkiye right now. The fact that the Russians started to form an important diaspora in Turkiye is directly related to Russia's foreign trade opportunities.

In short, the deepening relations with Russia are moving towards a hub that covers most of Russia's commercial activities beyond being just a gas hub. As a matter of fact, many EU leaders have openly expressed their discomfort on this issue.

 

[Glass🚬]

When it concerns Russia the rational move should have been to limit our economic exposure to russia so that should we need to move in any of the multiple theatres in which the Russian army directly opposes us, they would have few tools to use against us. Instead erdogan did the opposite, using our weak point energy and delegating it more and more into the hands of the Russians.

Its interesting because in Turkey media is celebrating Putins declaration about "maybe" turning Turkey into a gas hub. While geopolitical analysts in the UK understand that this move gives Russia great leverage over Turkey and not the other way around.

One thing i have to give the British establishment, you cannot fool them anywhere near the way you can fool the Turkish establishment. I suspect this is why Britian has been so aggressively against Russia, they fully see them for what they are.

Then ur confusing something, such a pipeline would give Türkiye leverage over both euros and russians, Türkiye has already the energy resources diversified and with the upcoming gas extractions from the black sea it would be also mostly domestic gas that will be consumed.

Could u share those so-called geopolotical analysts from the UK?

 

[GoatsMilk]

Then ur confusing something, such a pipeline would give Türkiye leverage over both euros and russians, Türkiye has already the energy resources diversified and with the upcoming gas extractions from the black sea it would be also mostly domestic gas that will be consumed.

Could u share those so-called geopolotical analysts from the UK?

Just like when people said buying the s400 would gain us favour with Russia and then they bombed our troops anyway. And despite all our dealings including letting them build our first nuclear power plant, our government had to hide it from the public.

We already have pipelines from Russia, gains us no tangible leverage whatsoever against Russia. Adding more Russian pipelines will not gain us any favour against them and if it does in some miniscule way, the benefit it gives russia against us is far greater then any perceived benefit it gives Turkey. Also keep in mind that at some point europe will go back to business as usual concerning russian gas, further diminishing any percieved gains of a Turkish pipeline, while also working to create more options and diversity allowing russia to hedge their risks should they choose to invade another nation.

Germany is a good example how buying russian gas turns you into their cuck. Who could forget the helmet aid to Ukraine.

Its insane with everything thats transpired people keep talking like doing business with Russia is good for us.

As for the "so-called geopolitical analysts" browse the british media on putins "gas hub" claim concerning Turkey. You will find many opinions on it, all of them understand the advantages it will bring Russia. Only no one in Turkey seems to get it.

Listen i'm not going to agree with any of you concerning that this business and deals is good for Turkey, it simply isnt and won't ever be. Then unlike say germany our army is facing off with directly in many theatres. The kinds of deals you have made with Russia are deals they can shut down and get on with life, Turkey cannot do the same under the same deals.

So tomorrow if we say to the Russians we have had enough of you supporting the PKK in manbij, they have more tools to harm us. Its not the other way. And many piplelines go through many european nations, none have been used by said nations against Russia to gain any leverage against her.

Putin is not like erdogan, he's not going to do deals that in the future can be used against him.

We had to move to limit our exposure economically to Russia, this would have given us room to strike them in places they oppose us. Now the Russians now that the verious sanctions and embargoes can be used as threats against Turkey, should we wish to move. NONE of these deals can be used the other way against Russia, NONE.

And even today nowhere can anyone point to how leverage was created against Russia by doing business with them, not in libya, not in syria, not in azerbaijan and not elsewhere.

The other great danger about inviting Russian business men into Turkey is the exceptional levels of corruption they will bring, the bribing, the benefits and the money being pushed into the hands of Turkish entities will also dent the stability of the nation. They have been able to buy out people from far less corrupt nations then Turkey, inviting them into Turkey is bad news.

 

[I_Love_F16]

Can someone explain how this deal will benefit Turkiye in the future ? What kind of ‘leverage’ will Turkiye get against Russia by doing that ? Because I genuinely don't get it.