TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Afif]

A RISING TURKISH DEFENCE INDUSTRY!
FOREIGN POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND DIPLOMATIC LEVERAGE.

Damm! It seems Turkish defence industry truly became Noah's ship for muslim majority countries! literally from Morrocco to Indonesia in the actual sense! nobody seems to wanna miss out!

Who would have thought something like that 20 years ago !

I mind if the old man in Ankara's palace woke some morning in his bed and mistake himself as a sultan for couple of moments!

Jokes aside No doubt that, the spectacular rise of turkish defence industry is a very positive development for the Republic of Turkey as a nation state.
A comparative contemporary case like Turkey can be found in other part of the world. I think it would be fair to say south korea also had a similar rise in defence industry like Turkey.

However, unlike south korea, the rise of Turkish defence industry having ( slowly but surely ) an unprecedented impact on the geopolitical and security power dynamics between North African, central asian, south east asian, middle eastern countries and the great powers. ( Especially the west )

Think about it, ten years ago if you wanna buy any world class strategic defence equipment from the west how much geopolitical and other compromise you needed to make to the great powers for that!

Take for example KSA or other Gulf countries! They have the world's best weapons but they can't even do a shit with it ! Except serving western interests with it in expense of their very own interest. ( of course, very recently it is changing little by little )

Western power enjoyed more or less similar monopoly over mejority of muslim countries for a long time.

Except now it is started to change recently by the rise of turkish defence industry.
Now these countries can have highly sophisticated strategic equipments like, long range air defence, modern frigate, submarine ( and fifth gen fighter in the near future ) from a brotherly country.

Thus, they don't have to make unacceptable geopolitical compromise to the west anymore to get these strategically vital equipments! Or they don't have to give up a big chunk of their national resources to big western companies! And now they can get rid of thefear that, west can cripple their strategic assets by simply cutting of the spare parts or just messing up the softwares, if they move slightly against western interest!

The more success Turkish defence industry has from morrocco to Indonesia, the more century old western monopoly fades away.

If you loot at it in this broader sense, the extremely embargo happy behaviors of the most western countries would become more obvious!

For them, Strong Turkish defence not just a 'strong turkey problem' on its own! but also, it creates hell of a lot more broader issues for them to deal with! They definitely fear that, an strong and cooperative turkish defence industry would fuel rise of some other 'unfriendly' defence industries around thee world in near future!

I know, the significance of the concept i am describing here maybe little difficult for turks to understand, given turkey has never been colonized nor it has been under such heavy monopoly. But for others, for the first time in hundred years they are having a chance to gain more control and sovereignty from the west over their own affairs, their own national security and geopolitical choices. And this is something really special! that feeling!

Of course, all of these giving birth to 'NEW TURKIYE' in great power's geopolitics given the amount of significant influence Turkiye is gaining through these strategic security cooperation with brotherly countries.\

And of course, overall most of the muslim countries won't mind Turkish influence for the same reason most of the west by and large don't mind US influence. ( which is, having more or less similar geopolitical amd geoeconomic interests )

 

[Heartbang]

My theory on why the S-400 was deemed more valuable: it wasn't meant to defend against outside threats—if you catch my drift...

S400's are for Greek belligerency. (and possibly for reverse engineering)

 

[moz68k]

S400's are for Greek belligerency. (and possibly for reverse engineering)

Agreed on the reverse engineering, but a few S-400's can't help against the HAF, which—like it or not—is a formidable air force with an increasingly superior fleet of fighter jets (in comparison to ours). Our F-16Vs will likely arrive by 2027, Bahrain just received theirs a couple of days ago. HAFs block 70 upgrades are in the pipeline, they've received two already. Ours still have to wait for those geriatrics in the US senate to pass their defence budget.

A war with Greece would be a political, financial, and reputational disaster. Let's just stop the incessant warmongering emanating from some of the members here. We'd only end up "proving" that "the Turks are the warmongers", regardless of whether or not our hypothetical casus belli is justified. Gas in the Eastern Med will have to be solved through diplomacy, not through war. In the meantime, let's just continue defiantly building up our defence capabilities, on our own terms; defend our people and borders as best as we can; while simultaneously generating income, skilled workers, and prestige. That's more than enough.

The US and the EU will never abandon their spoiled, debt-ridden enfant terrible of a state that is Athens circa 2022—their entire founding myth depends on the belief that they are the sole inheritors of ancient Athens and Rome's greatest hits (ignore the terrible parts).

An up-and-coming Turkiye, however, with a blossoming high-tech industry and service sector will prove irresistible in the long run. Just look at Biden and Scholtz simping for China at this year's G20. That future—however turbulent the path to it may be—is inevitable. That is, as long as we weather through our current challenges without doing something as irrefutably stupid as escalating our conflict with Greece beyond the "occasional spat in exchange for political capital back home" schtick (on both sides of the Aegean).

 

[Oublious]

The US and the EU will never abandon their spoiled, debt-ridden enfant terrible of a state that is Athens circa 2022—their entire founding myth depends on the belief that they are sole inheritors of ancient Athens and Rome's greatest hits (ignore the terrible parts).

An up-and-coming Turkiye, however, with a blossoming high-tech industry and service sector will prove irresistible in the long run. Just look at Biden and Scholtz simping for China at this year's G20. That future—however turbulent the path to it may be—is inevitable. That is, as long as we weather through our current challenges without doing something as irrefutably stupid as escalating our conflict with Greece beyond the "occasional spat in exchange for political capital back home" schtick (on both sides of the Aegean).

Ok, when Greece declare ther territorial waters to 12 mile what should happen?

 

[moz68k]

Ok, when Greece declare ther territorial waters to 12 mile what should happen?

I never said tone down the current rhetoric beyond direct threats of war. I meant that we should not take for granted just how disastrous a war with Greece would actually be. I meant that we, as a community, should not use the term "war" lightly.

Further, that 12 mile expansion is not in the US or EU's interest either. It would effectively wipe international waters from the Aegean, which would decimate international shipping routes. They'll either maintain the status quo, and reap the ace dogfighters this dispute generates for NATO, or back Greece. If they unequivocally back Greece, then we are well and truly done for. I won't underestimate the policymaking stupidity that comes out of the 21st century western powers, though—I'll give you that.

 

[Heartbang]

but a few S-400's can't help against the HAF, which—like it or not—is a formidable air force with an increasingly superior fleet of fighter jets (in comparison to ours).

s400s arent supposed to "help against HAF" theyre supposed to fend off attacks against whatever which is theyre deployed to protect. they are inherently defensive weapons systems.
in a recent joint exercise in India, the US and its allies have reached the conclusion that export versions of S400 systems are capable of fending against stealth threats in a 30 km radius.
in a potential greek escalation, our mil. industrial complex in Ankara is a prime target for these kooks to attack. and s400's 30 km bubble covers the entirety of Ankara with ease. in fact, theres only one city in this nation that 30 km range doesnt cover. (you know which city it is )

A war with Greece would be a political, financial, and reputational disaster.

the devastation goes both ways. there are no winners in war, only those who lose less. what theyre bound to lose in a potential clash is far bigger than ours. we are aware of this.

We'd only end up "proving" that "the Turks are the warmongers", regardless of whether or not our hypothetical casus belli is justified.

they'd cry that no matter what we do. these are not sane ppl were dealing with. better make it count.

 

[moz68k]

s400s arent supposed to "help against HAF" theyre supposed to fend off attacks against whatever which is theyre deployed to protect. they are inherently defensive weapons systems.
in a recent joint exercise in India, the US and its allies have reached the conclusion that export versions of S400 systems are capable of fending against stealth threats in a 30 km radius.
in a potential greek escalation, our mil. industrial complex in Ankara is a prime target for these kooks to attack. and s400's 30 km bubble covers the entirety of Ankara with ease. in fact, theres only one city in this nation that 30 km range doesnt cover. (you know which city it is )

the devastation goes both ways. there are no winners in war, only those who lose less. what theyre bound to lose in a potential clash is far bigger than ours. we are aware of this.

they'd cry that no matter what we do. these are not sane ppl were dealing with. better make it count.

We're not in disagreement here, I just think it's our duty to rise above some of the extreme rhetoric on this forum. My argument is that there were (are?) domestic kooks that did have a history of bombing Ankara at the time the S-400 decision was so fervently made.

 

[B_A]

Agreed on the reverse engineering, but a few S-400's can't help against the HAF, which—like it or not—is a formidable air force with an increasingly superior fleet of fighter jets (in comparison to ours). Our F-16Vs will likely arrive by 2027, Bahrain just received theirs a couple of days ago. HAFs block 70 upgrades are in the pipeline, they've received two already. Ours still have to wait for those geriatrics in the US senate to pass their defence budget.

A war with Greece would be a political, financial, and reputational disaster. Let's just stop the incessant warmongering emanating from some of the members here. We'd only end up "proving" that "the Turks are the warmongers", regardless of whether or not our hypothetical casus belli is justified. Gas in the Eastern Med will have to be solved through diplomacy, not through war. In the meantime, let's just continue defiantly building up our defence capabilities, on our own terms; defend our people and borders as best as we can; while simultaneously generating income, skilled workers, and prestige. That's more than enough.

The US and the EU will never abandon their spoiled, debt-ridden enfant terrible of a state that is Athens circa 2022—their entire founding myth depends on the belief that they are the sole inheritors of ancient Athens and Rome's greatest hits (ignore the terrible parts).

An up-and-coming Turkiye, however, with a blossoming high-tech industry and service sector will prove irresistible in the long run. Just look at Biden and Scholtz simping for China at this year's G20. That future—however turbulent the path to it may be—is inevitable. That is, as long as we weather through our current challenges without doing something as irrefutably stupid as escalating our conflict with Greece beyond the "occasional spat in exchange for political capital back home" schtick (on both sides of the Aegean).

There will no war between Turkiye and Greece,because that meant we have to fight France or American which we cant prepare enough before 2040 or later

Maybe there will be war with iran

 

[Cypro]

Ok, when Greece declare ther territorial waters to 12 mile what should happen?

If that happens Turkiye will flex muscles and give a deadline to recall the decision. Declare whole world that you don't recognize unilateral declaration of Greece, it has no legitimacy and is a direct confrontation. Then President calls for mobilization, you start gathering up your troops to show how serious you are, parliament authorize army for full response.. (of course just show off) Probably at that stage they back off, or EU and USA intervene and diplomatic solution happens. War would be devastating for Turkiye even if she crush Greece easily, a lot of economic losses. Most radical thing would happen is a somewhat similar thing like Kardak or taking couple of islands without widespread confrontation. War would be never happen of both side's mainland, sea, air and islands will be the hot spot for short time.

 

[Lool]

Wtf

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593209403762970626

Again, wtf?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593210261636538368

I applaud Erdogan's shamelessness tbh
How can he restore relations with Egypt when theyare supporting Greek EEZ claims
How can he restore relations with Assad when Syria is aiding the PKK

And why after the elections though?

 

[Afif]

Wtf

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593209403762970626

Again, wtf?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593210261636538368

I applaud Erdogan's shamelessness tbh
is he gonna go crazy or something?
How can he restore relations with Egypt when theyare supporting Greek EEZ claims
How can he restore relations with Assad when he is aiding the PKK

The guy gonna go nuts? And why after the elections though?

Very briefly two things.

There is no such thing as 'shamelessness' in geopolitics.

There is no long asting military solution to any of the middle east's problems.

 

[Lool]

Very briefly two things.

There is no such thing as 'shamelessness' in geopolitics.

There is no longer lasting military solution to any of middle east problems.

That is impossible
All Med East and Africa's problems will eventually be solved either militarily or through coups and citizens' blood. Anyone who believes otherwise doesnt know a single thing about the shithole/clusterfuck known as the Med East

Moreover, Sisi doesnt like a muslim state to have any sort of democracy as it threatens his rule directly or indirectly; there is a reason why Sisi instigated military coups in Sudan and Tunisia for Gods sake

 

[TheInsider]

Egypt will implode unless Sisi changes course or a sizeable Saudi/UAE financial help is given to extend the implosion process. IMF loans can't save Egypt. Egypt has a population of 100 million, and an uncompetitive military-controlled economy that exports only 40bllion annually. Erdogan wants to capitalize on that especially now that Erdo has good relations with both financiers of Egypt (Saudi Arabia and UAE). Saudi and UEA continuously donated and lent money to Egypt but I don't know for how long they are willing to spend money to keep Egypt afloat.
Erdogan is seriously thinking of kicking the USA out of Syria but he can't do that while the regime poses a threat. There has to be some kind of understanding between the regime and the Turkiye to launch a sizeable op against YPG-held territories because of the risk of regime/Iranian militia joining in. Fighting against every player is stupid even when you have the strength to do that. Regardless Turkiye will launch a new of after operation Claw-Lock is finished in northern Iraq. Manbij and Ain Al Arab are likely targets. The safe bet is to launch another op again in Northern Iraq.

Don't ever believe anything that comes out of Erdogan's mouth. He is known to change his mind frequently. (i don't use another word starting with "L" not to get into trouble.)

 

[Lool]

Egypt will implode unless Sisi changes course or a sizeable Saudi/UAE financial help is given to extend the implosion process. IMF loans can't save Egypt. Egypt has a population of 100 million, and an uncompetitive military-controlled economy that exports only 40bllion annually. Erdogan wants to capitalize on that especially now that Erdo has good relations with both financiers of Egypt (Saudi Arabia and UAE). Saudi and UEA continuously donated and lent money to Egypt but I don't know for how long they are willing to spend money to keep Egypt afloat.
Erdogan is seriously thinking of kicking the USA out of Syria but he can't do that while the regime poses a threat. There has to be some kind of understanding between the regime and the Turkiye to launch a sizeable op against YPG-held territories because of the risk of regime/Iranian militia joining in. Fighting against every player is stupid even when you have the strength to do that. Regardless Turkiye will launch a new of after operation Claw-Lock is finished in northern Iraq. Manbij and Ain Al Arab are likely targets. The safe bet is to launch another op again in Northern Iraq.

Don't ever believe anything that comes out of Erdogan's mouth. He is known to change his mind frequently. (i don't use another word starting with "L" not to get into trouble.)

The question here is...... is this the right course of action or not?
Honestly, I dont think that Turkey or Erdogan has the means to kick the Americans out of Syria yet (No offense); regardless of what underhanded methods Erdogan utilises

And while your analysis for why Erdogan can make peace with Assad makes sense in order to achieve a bigger goal, but what will exactly Erdogan capitalise on with Egypt? As far as I know, Sisi hates all forms and types of democracy and Erdogan has been a pain in the ass for him; moreover, I keep reading from various outlets that his people are comparing Sisi's achievements to what Erdogan and UAE's has done and this pisses of Sisi even more

 

[Afif]

That is impossible
All Med East and Africa's problems will eventually be solved either militarily or through coups and citizens' blood. Anyone who believes otherwise doesnt know a single thing about the shithole/clusterfuck known as the Med East

Moreover, Sisi doesnt like a muslim state to have any sort of democracy as it threatens his rule directly or indirectly; there is a reason why Sisi instigated military coups in Sudan and Tunisia for Gods sake

My grandfather was in the diplomatic deligation to initiate the peace talk between Iraq and Iran when the Iraq-Iran war was at its peak.
Nothing fruitful came out from the meeting with the madman 'Saddam hussain'

Even than, my grandfather in a very undiplomatic little conversation personally tried to convince saddam to negotiate at least some kind temporary peace with Iran!
Of course, nothing changed because Saddam was confident he can solve all of his problems with Iran just by brute military force.

I am not claiming to have any 'in depth' understanding of middle east geopolitics.
Of course, my observation is incomplete.

But I think, what you said "Anyone who believes otherwise doesnt know a single thing about the shithole/clusterfuck known as the Med East" is maybe the real problem here!
By and large Political elites in the middle east do not believe any meaningful solution can be achieved without the use of military or brute forces.
No party wants to make any meaningful compromise which is at the heart of any fruitful negotiations.

And How can you achieve something, if you don't believe it is actually possible to achieve in the first place ?

Note, this post is not personally directed to you. I am just trying to make a general point from my own personal understanding.
So don't take it too seriously.

 

[Barry]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593172632551428103

Didn't even get off the plane before he threw his toys out of his EU-made pram.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Agreed on the reverse engineering, but a few S-400's can't help against the HAF, which—like it or not—is a formidable air force with an increasingly superior fleet of fighter jets (in comparison to ours). Our F-16Vs will likely arrive by 2027, Bahrain just received theirs a couple of days ago. HAFs block 70 upgrades are in the pipeline, they've received two already. Ours still have to wait for those geriatrics in the US senate to pass their defence budget.

A war with Greece would be a political, financial, and reputational disaster. Let's just stop the incessant warmongering emanating from some of the members here. We'd only end up "proving" that "the Turks are the warmongers", regardless of whether or not our hypothetical casus belli is justified. Gas in the Eastern Med will have to be solved through diplomacy, not through war. In the meantime, let's just continue defiantly building up our defence capabilities, on our own terms; defend our people and borders as best as we can; while simultaneously generating income, skilled workers, and prestige. That's more than enough.

The US and the EU will never abandon their spoiled, debt-ridden enfant terrible of a state that is Athens circa 2022—their entire founding myth depends on the belief that they are the sole inheritors of ancient Athens and Rome's greatest hits (ignore the terrible parts).

An up-and-coming Turkiye, however, with a blossoming high-tech industry and service sector will prove irresistible in the long run. Just look at Biden and Scholtz simping for China at this year's G20. That future—however turbulent the path to it may be—is inevitable. That is, as long as we weather through our current challenges without doing something as irrefutably stupid as escalating our conflict with Greece beyond the "occasional spat in exchange for political capital back home" schtick (on both sides of the Aegean).

Rationally the moment the first island was armed Turks should have given the greeks 48hrs to remove the equipment. After that they should have bombed everything and then said that will happen to the next island you arm.

Under Erdogan we are always too late to the party and the constant inaction is inviting more and more trouble which leads you into a point where all out war becomes possible. We saw this in syria where we were so slow and lazy to intervene that we found ourselves having to worry about go to war with the both the USA and Russia over their support of terrorists.

The whole reason the Russians even felt comfortable to bomb Turkish troops in the first place is because they saw constant weakness from erdogan. I still remember when it happened erdogan was trying to hide it from the country then when he couldnt hide it he was trying to blame it on assad. That basically tells the Russians come back and kill more Turks because we are dealing with a coward.

Turks got to wake up, your tolerating incompetency at the highest level of the state.

The way you avoid war is to constantly be proactive and to show your teeth at important times to scare the enemy away. Otherwise you are going to keep sitting back and back and then an all out war will be unavoidable when you are cornered into a desperate situation. You want to avoid war you got to more pro active and more aggressive where it makes sense.

The only reason our enemies don't declare war on us directly and now is because they feel they would lose the war, not because they don't want to attack us but because they know they get their heads caved in if they do. The greeks and armenians are prime examples of this. If the armenians ever felt they had power over Turkey they wouldnt wait to attack us same with the greeks.

 

[Xenon54]

Egypt will implode unless Sisi changes course or a sizeable Saudi/UAE financial help is given to extend the implosion process. IMF loans can't save Egypt. Egypt has a population of 100 million, and an uncompetitive military-controlled economy that exports only 40bllion annually. Erdogan wants to capitalize on that especially now that Erdo has good relations with both financiers of Egypt (Saudi Arabia and UAE). Saudi and UEA continuously donated and lent money to Egypt but I don't know for how long they are willing to spend money to keep Egypt afloat.
Erdogan is seriously thinking of kicking the USA out of Syria but he can't do that while the regime poses a threat. There has to be some kind of understanding between the regime and the Turkiye to launch a sizeable op against YPG-held territories because of the risk of regime/Iranian militia joining in. Fighting against every player is stupid even when you have the strength to do that. Regardless Turkiye will launch a new of after operation Claw-Lock is finished in northern Iraq. Manbij and Ain Al Arab are likely targets. The safe bet is to launch another op again in Northern Iraq.

Don't ever believe anything that comes out of Erdogan's mouth. He is known to change his mind frequently. (i don't use another word starting with "L" not to get into trouble.)

Egypt will implode regardless, its just too big of a population to be sustained on such a small space. Egypt still has a high fertility rate, a couple decades from now will be very tough.
Apart from that the whole country is dependant on a single river whose origin is outside its borders, Ethiopia which has similar size population and even bigger fertility rate controls 80% of nile rivers water volume and they started to dam it up, they have Egypt by the cojones to put it boldly.

In other words Egypt can nefver become properous no matter how theay change their course but right now there is a dictator whose crazy about vanity projects, a lot of potential for Turkish construction companies, maybe thats why Erdogan wants to revive relations.

 

[Lool]

My grandfather was in the diplomatic deligation to initiate the peace talk between Iraq and Iran when the Iraq-Iran war was at its peak.

Nothing fruitful came out from the meeting with the madman 'Saddam hussain'

Even than, my grandfather in a very undiplomatic little conversation personally tried to convince saddam to negotiate at least some kind temporary peace with Iran!

Of course, nothing changed because Saddam was confident he can solve all of his problems with Iran just by brute military force.

I am not claiming to have any 'in depth' understanding of middle east geopolitics.
Of course, my observation is incomplete.

But I think, what you said "Anyone who believes otherwise doesnt know a single thing about the shithole/clusterfuck known as the Med East" is maybe the real problem here!

By and large Political elites in the middle east do not believe any meaningful solution can be achieved without the use of military or brute forces.
No party wants to make any meaningful compromise which is at the heart of any fruitful negotiations.

And How can you achieve something, if you don't believe it is actually possible to achieve in the first place ?

Note, this post is not personally directed to you. I am just trying to make a general point from my own personal understanding.
So don't take it too seriously.

Then you truly dont know a thing!
Saddam, the madman is long gone, and Iran is now one of the main troublemakers in the region. This clearly shows that the Madman Saddam was actually right about curbing Iran early on but failed

The main reason why the Med East will never tire out from conflicts is because of 4 main reasons
1- the Med East is one of the richest regions on Earth; if not the most richest region in fact
2- The area is ruled by several egotistical dictators
3- Western imperialism where the West will ensure that the Med East never evolve so that the West ensures their resource supply routes is preserved
4- Religion in which the current Med East is predominantly Muslim and the current world powers (Christians in general hate Muslims) and iam talking about leaders and not average ppl though most have the same thought process

 

[Baryshx]

Are our borders our honor? Because our honor is being violated.

This is how thousands of Afghans entered the country under the supervision of the Gendarmerie.
There is not one woman, child or old among them!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592779208279085057