TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Bogeyman]

I don't wish. I see. I couldn't give less shits if Iran disintegrates or not; or if Syria does, in a personal level. I wish they don't form the pov of Turkish state, but the universe has this bad habit of not obliging my wishes.

You made a very valid point.
Burying your head in the sand.
In 2012, while we had not even made any balance-changing interventions on the ground in Syria, the Assad regime shot down our RF-4E Phantom fighterjet.

This is a milestone for us. That day, I'm sure someone argued in the forums that we did not respond harshly enough to our plane being shot down. That's why we were forced to become a side of this game, even though we were not the ones who started the hostility.

Unless a similar incident occurs in Iran, I do not think Turkey will intervene in Iran.

Beyond that, unlike Syria, Iran is not a state that can be left to its own devices. No civil war can continue for long without outside support. Therefore, countries that will provide external support should be aware that they must also confront China.

This does not deter Iran's enemies from intervening in it. However, it will make the struggle harder. This increases the size of the gamble.

That's why you should consider that China will be included in the whole equation in Iran's internal calculations. As long as China sees Iran as a strategic partner, it will not allow it to fall easily.

 

[Rooxbar]

One cannot argue that the vision AKP had for Syria's future was not influential in its involvement or lack thereof, in the Syrian civil war. I have a very hard time understanding how you can hold the fiction that before the shooting down of our Phantom we were not intervening in Syria. FSA was formed in Turkey in 2011. The rhetoric during the whole Arab Spring was very evident, and evidently pro Islamic Brotherhood. I remember vividly that Erdoğan made a speech right before Davutoğlu went to Syria to pressure Assad to release Muslim Brotherhood political prisoners, and Erdoğan in that speech said "Syria is our internal problem, and our patience is running out." The evidence to the contrary of your claim, is the whole span of the history of Syrian civil war (and Arab Spring) before the Phantom incident, as Turkey's attitude and foreign policy was completely decided upon a dream and the dream was pursued very publicly.

 

[Bogeyman]

One cannot argue that the vision AKP had for Syria's future was not influential in its involvement or lack thereof, in the Syrian civil war. I have a very hard time understanding how you can hold the fiction that before the shooting down of our Phantom we were not intervening in Syria. FSA was formed in Turkey in 2011. The rhetoric during the whole Arab Spring was very evident, and evidently pro Islamic Brotherhood. I remember vividly that Erdoğan made a speech right before Davutoğlu went to Syria to pressure Assad to release Muslim Brotherhood political prisoners, and Erdoğan in that speech said "Syria is our internal problem, and our patience is running out." The evidence to the contrary of your claim, is the whole span of the history of Syrian civil war (and Arab Spring) before the Phantom incident, as Turkey's attitude and foreign policy was completely decided upon a dream and the dream was pursued very publicly.

When the events in Syria first started, Türkiye did not want a civil war. For months, we warned the Assad regime not to massacre its people. They continued to massacre people despite our warning. When it became clear that they would not be reformed anymore, the intervention came covertly.

You remember that Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoğlu visited Syria, but you do not remember the advice he gave to the Assad regime. You remember that ÖSO was founded in 2011. But you don't remember that Turkey adopted a zero-problem policy with its neighbors when it sent its foreign minister to Syria.

 

[Rooxbar]

When the events in Syria first started, Türkiye did not want a civil war. For months, we warned the Assad regime not to massacre its people. They continued to massacre people despite our warning. When it became clear that they would not be reformed anymore, the intervention came covertly.

You remember that Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoğlu visited Syria, but you do not remember the advice he gave to the Assad regime. You remember that ÖSO was founded in 2011. But you don't remember that Turkey adopted a zero-problem policy with its neighbors when it sent its foreign minister to Syria.

I mean this is cognitive dissonance. You acknowledge the fact that ÖSO was formed before the Phantom incident, and yet you say the stated policy was "zero-problem". One cannot have a uniform foreign policy regarding all neighbors (regardless if it's called zero-problem or infinte-problems), and if such a policy is proclaimed, it can be safely disregarded as gobbledygook. Outlawed opposition parties and leaders from Syria are holding conferences in Ankara in 2011 and you are arming and training a Syrian militia group, and then your foreign minister goes and tells Assad that they should do reforms and free political prisoners. He was met with a firm "f--- off".

I mean I can go look for links of speeches by Erdoğan and Davutoğlu from even before the start of demonstrations in Syria, which were in line with the overall outlook of the government in the Arab Spring, and the intervention in Libya and the Egyptian revolution. There was a set policy and Syria was a part of it. The U.S. plans were not recognized for what they are, and the admin fell into the trap willingly and cooperatively. If the nature of U.S. involvement was predicted and seen (as it was warned about by many analysts and journalists), the policies would have been very different. To dispute this is daydreaming.

 

[Bozan]

One cannot argue that the vision AKP had for Syria's future was not influential in its involvement or lack thereof, in the Syrian civil war. I have a very hard time understanding how you can hold the fiction that before the shooting down of our Phantom we were not intervening in Syria. FSA was formed in Turkey in 2011. The rhetoric during the whole Arab Spring was very evident, and evidently pro Islamic Brotherhood. I remember vividly that Erdoğan made a speech right before Davutoğlu went to Syria to pressure Assad to release Muslim Brotherhood political prisoners, and Erdoğan in that speech said "Syria is our internal problem, and our patience is running out." The evidence to the contrary of your claim, is the whole span of the history of Syrian civil war (and Arab Spring) before the Phantom incident, as Turkey's attitude and foreign policy was completely decided upon a dream and the dream was pursued very publicly.

Erdogan told Assad he would help him put down the rebellion if Assad appointed Muslim brotherhood ministers

 

[Bogeyman]

I mean this is cognitive dissonance. You acknowledge the fact that ÖSO was formed before the Phantom incident, and yet you say the stated policy was "zero-problem". One cannot have a uniform foreign policy regarding all neighbors (regardless if it's called zero-problem or infinte-problems), and if such a policy is proclaimed, it can be safely disregarded as gobbledygook. Outlawed opposition parties and leaders from Syria are holding conferences in Ankara in 2011 and you are arming and training a Syrian militia group, and then your foreign minister goes and tells Assad that they should do reforms and free political prisoners. He was met with a firm "f--- off".

I mean I can go look for links of speeches by Erdoğan and Davutoğlu from even before the start of demonstrations in Syria, which were in line with the overall outlook of the government in the Arab Spring, and the intervention in Libya and the Egyptian revolution. There was a set policy and Syria was a part of it. The U.S. plans were not recognized for what they are, and the admin fell into the trap willingly and cooperatively. If the nature of U.S. involvement was predicted and seen (as it was warned about by many analysts and journalists), the policies would have been very different. To dispute this is daydreaming.

I think you are confusing the dates of events. The first demonstrations in Syria started on March 15, 2011 and spread throughout the country in April 2011. ÖSO was established on July 29, 2011. Ahmet Davutoğlu visited Syria for the first time in August 2011. According to you, I cannot understand how Ahmet Davutoğlu managed to establish the ÖSO before visiting Syria.

Özgür Suriye Ordusu - Vikipedi

tr.wikipedia.org

Suriye İç Savaşı - Vikipedi

tr.wikipedia.org

Davutoğlu ziyareti öncesinde Suriye'den sert çıkış

Başbakan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın dün yayınlanan “sabrımız taşıyor” mesajına Suriye Başbakanı Beşar Esad’ın Siyaset ve Medya Danışmanı Dr. Bouthina Şaban’dan,...

www.hurriyet.com.tr

 

[Rooxbar]

The fact that July comes before August in my calendar is beside the point. Even if we agree that initially for like two months AKP didn't intervene (contrary to all the evidence, some of which you posted yourself, including the Erdoğan speech), this was all before U.S. active involvement. The problem with the policy was that it didn't foresee U.S. aims and goals, and used state resources and Syrian opposition in parallel to U.S. involvement, not in lieu of or despite them. If the analysis was correct that Syria is not going to change admin, but is going to be effectively partitioned, the resources and intervention (which lest the contrary be inferred from my side, I'm not against in principle, but in mode), would have been channeled accordingly. A higher level of cooperation with Russia, even backdoor deals with Assad could have been achieved. But it is obvious our admin's heads were in the clouds (captagon clouds if you will) of Muslim Brotherhood, rather than in the dusts rising off of YPG Toyotas (which we helped them get).

 

[CAN_TR]

If you complain so much about refugees, why do you see going to war with Iran as child's play?

Do not dream of Southern Azerbaijan in vain, people. You cannot get out of that bottomless pit alive.

What are you talking about? I'm pretty neutral to the current conflicts and oppose any conflict that could harm our interests and security.

If Iran threatens Azerbaijan, threatens our national security, threatens our soldiers in Iraq with their proxies then we have to take appropriate measurements, this doesn't mean we have to invade Iran or support Zionist-Neocon wet dreams.

 

[Ryder]

Erdogan goes to Germany and gives pretty good answers even intelligent ones.

Ama for his domestic audience its the opposite.

He needs to stop pandering to his domestic audience.

 

[Bogeyman]

First of all, I write the last thing I will say first.
What I wrote is not for you. But here I will sarcastic those who boast about their nationalism and pursue reckless dreams.

What are you talking about? I'm pretty neutral to the current conflicts and oppose any conflict that could harm our interests and security.

If Iran threatens Azerbaijan, threatens our national security, threatens our soldiers in Iraq with their proxies then we have to take appropriate measurements, this doesn't mean we have to invade Iran or support Zionist-Neocon wet dreams.

First, re-read what I wrote here. If you have no idea of "liberating" Iran, there is no issue for me to talk about.

 

[Bogeyman]

The fact that July comes before August in my calendar is beside the point. Even if we agree that initially for like two months AKP didn't intervene (contrary to all the evidence, some of which you posted yourself, including the Erdoğan speech), this was all before U.S. active involvement. The problem with the policy was that it didn't foresee U.S. aims and goals, and used state resources and Syrian opposition in parallel to U.S. involvement, not in lieu of or despite them. If the analysis was correct that Syria is not going to change admin, but is going to be effectively partitioned, the resources and intervention (which lest the contrary be inferred from my side, I'm not against in principle, but in mode), would have been channeled accordingly. A higher level of cooperation with Russia, even backdoor deals with Assad could have been achieved. But it is obvious our admin's heads were in the clouds (captagon clouds if you will) of Muslim Brotherhood, rather than in the dusts rising off of YPG Toyotas (which we helped them get).

I think you seem to have not followed the Syrian war properly.

A few reminders for you;

- We brought the Assad regime to the point of exhaustion in 2013 (before Iran publicly sent Hezbollah to help).
- We brought Iran's Hezbollah to the point of extinction in 2015
- Russia came last. If Russia had not entered Syria, we would have already overthrown the Assad regime. When the Russians entered Syria, they made an alliance with both Iran and the USA (via the YPG) against us. Therefore, it was not Turkey's fault that the Assad regime had not been overthrown even though 4 years had passed since the start of the war.

In 2013, when the Assad regime was exhausted to the bone, there was no ISIS. DAESH emerged in June 2014. If we could not foresee the emergence of DAESH in 2013, Türkiye was not to blame.

Both Russia and the USA used ISIS to destroy groups supported by Turkey. Even when we directly intervened in the field with the Euphrates Shield, Iran-Russia and the USA made an alliance against us on YPG and ISIS. It was not Turkey's fault for not foreseeing that this would happen.

The 15-year acceleration occurred in 4-5 years. It was not Turkey's fault for not foreseeing that the USA would gift Syria to Russia. If the USA wanted, it could easily prevent Russia from landing in warm seas. But they did not want it.

Here we see that countries that would normally be at odds with each other if left alone have a common agenda against Turkey. It wasn't our fault that they had common agendas.

You should first sit down and reexamine the Syrian civil war.

 

[Ryder]

I think you seem to have not followed the Syrian war properly.

A few reminders for you;

- We brought the Assad regime to the point of exhaustion in 2013 (before Iran publicly sent Hezbollah to help).
- We brought Iran's Hezbollah to the point of extinction in 2015
- Russia came last. If Russia had not entered Syria, we would have already overthrown the Assad regime. When the Russians entered Syria, they made an alliance with both Iran and the USA (via the YPG) against us. Therefore, it was not Turkey's fault that the Assad regime had not been overthrown even though 4 years had passed since the start of the war.

In 2013, when the Assad regime was exhausted to the bone, there was no ISIS. DAESH emerged in June 2014. If we could not foresee the emergence of DAESH in 2013, Türkiye was not to blame.

Both Russia and the USA used ISIS to destroy groups supported by Turkey. Even when we directly intervened in the field with the Euphrates Shield, Iran-Russia and the USA made an alliance against us on YPG and ISIS. It was not Turkey's fault for not foreseeing that this would happen.

The 15-year acceleration occurred in 4-5 years. It was not Turkey's fault for not foreseeing that the USA would gift Syria to Russia. If the USA wanted, it could easily prevent Russia from landing in warm seas. But they did not want it.

Here we see that countries that would normally be at odds with each other if left alone have a common agenda against Turkey. It wasn't our fault that they had common agendas.

You should first sit down and reexamine the Syrian civil war.

Not to mention Assad regime was known for supporting Isis for decades. In 2007 Assad regime got caught for supporting Al Qaeda in Iraq the percusor to ISIS.

 

[Ryder]

When the events in Syria first started, Türkiye did not want a civil war. For months, we warned the Assad regime not to massacre its people. They continued to massacre people despite our warning. When it became clear that they would not be reformed anymore, the intervention came covertly.

You remember that Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmet Davutoğlu visited Syria, but you do not remember the advice he gave to the Assad regime. You remember that ÖSO was founded in 2011. But you don't remember that Turkey adopted a zero-problem policy with its neighbors when it sent its foreign minister to Syria.

The assad regime tortured a young boy and cut his penis off.

Something which Isis did not even do.

Fck this regime to the core.

I wish donald trump drone strike bashar al assad. I know Trump is a scumbag ama he would have done the world a good favour by drone striking him.

 

[Bogeyman]

I think you seem to have not followed the Syrian war properly.

A few reminders for you;

- We brought the Assad regime to the point of exhaustion in 2013 (before Iran publicly sent Hezbollah to help).
- We brought Iran's Hezbollah to the point of extinction in 2015
- Russia came last. If Russia had not entered Syria, we would have already overthrown the Assad regime. When the Russians entered Syria, they made an alliance with both Iran and the USA (via the YPG) against us. Therefore, it was not Turkey's fault that the Assad regime had not been overthrown even though 4 years had passed since the start of the war.

In 2013, when the Assad regime was exhausted to the bone, there was no ISIS. DAESH emerged in June 2014. If we could not foresee the emergence of DAESH in 2013, Türkiye was not to blame.

Both Russia and the USA used ISIS to destroy groups supported by Turkey. Even when we directly intervened in the field with the Euphrates Shield, Iran-Russia and the USA made an alliance against us on YPG and ISIS. It was not Turkey's fault for not foreseeing that this would happen.

The 15-year acceleration occurred in 4-5 years. It was not Turkey's fault for not foreseeing that the USA would gift Syria to Russia. If the USA wanted, it could easily prevent Russia from landing in warm seas. But they did not want it.

Here we see that countries that would normally be at odds with each other if left alone have a common agenda against Turkey. It wasn't our fault that they had common agendas.

You should first sit down and reexamine the Syrian civil war.

For God's sake!

We are talking about the USA and Russia here. Everyone is discussing whether Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and go to war with the United States. (The level of tension is that high)

However, when it comes to Syria, the same men come together with the soldiers of the two countries to prevent Turkey from starting a new operation, chat and take photos as if they are not going to start a nuclear war on another front.

Syria's balances are unique to itself. Nobody wants Turkey to be powerful in its own backyard.

 

[Ryder]

For God's sake!

We are talking about the USA and Russia here. Everyone is discussing whether Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine and go to war with the United States. (The level of tension is that high)

However, when it comes to Syria, the same men come together with the soldiers of the two countries to prevent Turkey from starting a new operation, chat and take photos as if they are not going to start a nuclear war on another front.

Syria's balances are unique to itself. Nobody wants Turkey to be powerful in its own backyard.

Usa and Russia were on good terms until Russia invaded Ukraine.

Despite this in other regions they came together like Syria, Caucasus and Libya.

 

[Ryder]

Turkiye is a regional power with political, military and economic power.

Yes its economy may not be in a good shape.

But the West regardless if its the USA and the EU are now releuctant on selling any kind of weapons systems to Turkiye because they now see Turkiye defending its own interests which threatens their own interests and designs also to maintain Israel's military quality edge.

Thats why Turkiye not just got its F35s confiscated because of the S400 but also confiscated to maintain Israel's military quality edge in the Middle East.

 

[Kartal1]

Greetings from Stavropol...

 

[Afif]

Surge in Turkish Dual-Use Exports Raises Alarms

Exports of dual-use goods from Turkey to Russia have grown rapidly.

mil.in.ua

 

[Aqerdf]

Malicious horse-shit at best..

"Russia plus five countries" Why not stop to five. Without those five you shit face so called ft writer couldnt get that tiny 150 mil. dollar number ? We exporting to eskimos too some things maybe you also add that in your list.

"Mentioned states didnt show these in their import data" Joint ventures, with their plants/workshops/offices/docks etc. does mean anything ! They count Turkish companies own mainland to joint brach delivieries too, with an agenda.

"This wasnt there between 2015 to 2021" no shit Sherlock? Have you ever think about maybe just maybe TR is also both consumer and producer these things in growing numbers from 2015 ?

It's not like "German cnc/factory machinery parts etc. exports to Krygzistan boomed very very massively since RF-UKR War type of situation.

 

[Kartal1]

Japan Intelligence Service removed PKK, Taliban and Hamas from the list of terrorist organizations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729502922973560978