TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Tornadoss]

Thoughts?
is there other implications or indications for such a move?

Translation:
Turkey announced its withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE).

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776151774207828402

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776189049088233928

You are misinterpreting. The treaty had already become obsolete with Russia's withdrawal. NATO announced its decision to withdraw in response at the end of last year. What was published in the Official Gazette is just a formality regarding the implementation of this decision of the alliance.

 

[Kartal1]

Very important decision!

A joint screening center must be established with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Russia. Citizens from these countries should go trough a special screening procedure before entering Turkiye. This is a matter of national security.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776361781293638066

 

[Saithan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776189049088233928

Suspension of implementation.

We did not withdraw from it, just suspended it. since its implementation became impossible to uphold due to some withdrawing.

This is good.

 

[GoatsMilk]

Suspension of implementation.

We did not withdraw from it, just suspended it. since its implementation became impossible to uphold due to some withdrawing.

This is good.

in practice was it ever really enforced? I mean could for example an independent body have complete access to a nation to investigate if its being upheld?

 

[Saithan]

in practice was it ever really enforced? I mean could for example an independent body have complete access to a nation to investigate if its being upheld?

well, you know, just because something exist doesn't mean it's being enforced or upheld. However our so called allies can always use these as excuses to screw us over, while they ignore their own part in not upholding it.

So just do like your other allies and suspending it is better than withdrawing, it gives us more wiggle room.

 

[Baryshx]

Very important decision!

A joint screening center must be established with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Russia. Citizens from these countries should go trough a special screening procedure before entering Turkiye. This is a matter of national security.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776361781293638066

Our government is as funny as ever. What about the Syrian and Afghani ISIS members and terrorists who enter the country illegally?

Also, Uzbekistan is one of the centres of ISIS, as is the Uighur autonomous region...

 

[Kartal1]

Our government is as funny as ever. What about the Syrian and Afghani ISIS members and terrorists who enter the country illegally?

Also, Uzbekistan is one of the centres of ISIS, as is the Uighur autonomous region...

Yes, this is a very big problem. Even the Taliban told us "send them back" regarding the illegal Afghan migrants. The Syria topic is also clear. Many young Afghans are coming to Turkiye mainly to work and gain some money for marriage as marriages in Afghanistan are expensive. Only Mehr (bride price) can go up to 40.000$ or even more. The wedding party, the wedding itself is another story, so they are forced to find alternatives for income. In this sense many Afghans come to Turkiye and return to Afghanistan later so they can marry. Ironically they are not the biggest problem when it comes to terrorism.

In short both illegal and legal travel from Central Asia including Afghanistan and Russia is risky. As the majority of the terrorists (ISKP) that are posing threat to Turkish and regional security are Tajik, the government took tight measures restricting the free flow of Tajik citizens.

When it comes to the problem in Central Asia I think it should be countered on the territory of these countries trough tight coordination, intelligence sharing and other security agreements. I think there is a lack of proactive approach and surveillance. We are not talking about war torn countries, but relatively developed countries with tradition when it comes to intelligence. It is clear that IS in these countries limits their offensive activities so they don't bring the attention over them. Rather than attacking they are using the freedom and lack of control to recruit new followers who they radicalize and conduct fundraising activities.

Why am I saying that special screening initiatives should be started? Because the regular IS lone wolf is not a PhD in Physics or a notorious businessman, having a girlfriend, driving a cabriolet around the town. This is why background check of such individuals is a must prior to entering Turkiye or any other country.

Intelligence should be gathered by the local authorities in countries with high risk on neighbourhood principle and a report should be kept about every citizen falling into a certain criteria which is a precondition for him to become a security risk. The people who are falling in this list should be kept under surveillance and regular reports (once monthly) should be written by the responsible case officer regarding developments in his life, his work, travel etc. Every 3 months a conclusion report must be written which is added into a large database in which such risky individuals are categorized according to the security risk they pose and annually such individuals may be excluded from the list. The border guards and institutions that are responsible for migration should have access to the database and determine if an individual is let to cross the border according to the categorization (red, orange, yellow, you name it) and the border security and migration authorities should be able to access the latest conclusion report reviewing the details regarding the categorization of this individual, also a hot line in a joint operative center should exist that is able to provide further support and coordination between partner countries relative authorities, also other partner countries services. All of the countries participating in this intelligence sharing agreement must have access to this database trough a common platform integrated into the border control system of a participant country. Based on border personnel perception of risk and the included report, the individual taking place in this list may be let pass the border point, denied entry or detained/deported if there is a warrant for his arrest.

Yes, I know that this is a lot of work, but taking in account the security risks involved this system will serve well all of the countries that participate in this common platform. There is a risk and we must face this risk with preventive measures and coordination between interested sides. Every country is expected to take seriously the terrorism threat, especially in these times. There is a certain reality that many terrorists are coming from Central Asian countries and we must press these countries to start screening their citizens and make possible for better security evaluation and terrorism prevention otherwise unfortunately it is not possible for Turkiye to accept people from these countries without visa and vise versa. We should either enforce a joint screening database or cease visa free travel. A system that is close to this concept is the Schengen Information System. I think such a coordinated border control initiative may also serve for the future of our international cooperation within the Turkic Council and other regional partners. While we are talking solely about terrorism prevention, I think this system's potential is bigger and its function can be expanded, so the process around border control and customs activities may be optimized (faster border crossing, less waiting time) among participants. This system should be applied as a "bundle" to the existing border security software of these countries no matter if we talk about land border crossings, airports or maritime ports. We should know who is who.

Another reality is that many of these legal or illegal migrants are being radicalized in the countries they migrated in (Turkiye in our case). We should clearly identify how the radicalization process is done, the connected individuals and these nests of snakes should be burned no matter in a legal or a "semi-legal" way. We should give the right message of deterrence!

 

[Heartbang]

Well, shit.

https://defence-blog.com/leaked-audio-reveals-russian-plan-to-occupy-kazakhstan-territory/

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776564321041997886

 

[uçuyorum]

Well, shit.

https://defence-blog.com/leaked-audio-reveals-russian-plan-to-occupy-kazakhstan-territory/

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776564321041997886

I was fearing that but, Kazakhstan and Russia border is huge, Kazakhstans economy is better than Ukraine, while it's population is much smaller,I think its military and equipment is better than Ukraine's around beginning of war. And I think we would be providing them even more support than we did to Ukraine, but don't know if west would do anything to help them. Russia is still struggling while Ukraine front is open so 2 fronts would be rrally difficult, but China's help is starting to really help them ramp up their production. This would only happen if Ukraine war ended.

 

[GoatsMilk]

I was fearing that but, Kazakhstan and Russia border is huge, Kazakhstans economy is better than Ukraine, while it's population is much smaller,I think its military and equipment is better than Ukraine's around beginning of war. And I think we would be providing them even more support than we did to Ukraine, but don't know if west would do anything to help them. Russia is still struggling while Ukraine front is open so 2 fronts would be rrally difficult, but China's help is starting to really help them ramp up their production. This would only happen if Ukraine war ended.

entirely predictable. Had they been successful in Ukraine, the question then becomes whose next.

rationally Turkey should be moving their army into the nation. Turkey has to create a scenario where if Russia attacks Kazakstan then its war with Turkey too.

 

[fushkee]

That will just be a war which we should be a side on it!!

 

[uçuyorum]

entirely predictable. Had they been successful in Ukraine, the question then becomes whose next.

rationally Turkey should be moving their army into the nation. Turkey has to create a scenario where if Russia attacks Kazakstan then its war with Turkey too.

Acting too rash would make Russia act quicker

 

[Iskander]

entirely predictable. Had they been successful in Ukraine, the question then becomes whose next.

rationally Turkey should be moving their army into the nation. Turkey has to create a scenario where if Russia attacks Kazakstan then its war with Turkey too.

And how to do it? Through Georgia?
When Russia decides to attack Kazakhstan, rest assured that it will first (or simultaneously) occupy Tbilisi and tightly close the exit to Central Asia, and then very quickly get to Tashkent itself. Türkiye does not have a corresponding agreement with either Georgia or Kazakhstan.
The organization of the Turkic states looks great on paper, but in fact, out of a hundred necessary steps, not two were taken in 33 years. This problem has been bothering me for a long time. Too much wasted time.
The only thing Ankara can do to influence Russia is this is a warning to Moscow by covering the Istanbul Strait.

 

[uçuyorum]

Kazakhstan needs to act rationally, quickly but silently to secure itself. Here are some of precautions it should take:

• Establish production lines for howitzer systems and munitions. Possibly to NATO standard in order to export and recoup costs. We have seen how crucial this has become.
• Modernize it's military communication equipment, also massively helped Ukraine.
• Set up production lines for small drones, kamikaze or ISR.
• Setup bomb resistant shelters for its airbases and spread out their aircraft, ensure their safety in an attack. Have equipment ready to repair runways.
• Analyze inventory, do maintenance of old equipment and procure missing equipment silently.
• Analyze readiness of reserve troops, give basic training to more people if needed.
• Do not bad mouth Russia publicly and try to keep good diplomatic relations.
• Procure systems like korkut for use in conjunction with their S300 systems for their protection.
• Determine lines of defense close to border and make plans to quickly fortify them, set up logistics lines but don't actually build up yet.
• Start mine production and mine laying equipment production, train personnel for handling mines
• Build shelters for civilians and have evacuation plans.
• Have their personnel secretly train for use of Siper etc in Turkey but not transfer equipment openly or until if a war seems closer to not antagonize Russia.
• Silently increase diplomatic relations with west.
• Start saving funds for war, strategically large debts from west could improve odds for them, as west may accept to postpone or less likely but cancel debts in sympathy even if they don't provide further support. Large debts may also incentivize them to help them.
• Silently and slowly identify russian spies within government, military and intelligence and keep an eye on them but do not engage.
• Increase security around regions where there may be separatists movements.
• Surveil social media and such for russian propaganda and separatist activity.
• Bolster their aerial capabilities with various MALE drones.
• Train troops with TRLG system etc and have them ready for transfer waiting in Turkey.
• Procure modern EW equipment.
• Increase youth awareness for importance of nation and security. You can call this indoctrination but a nation is not a nation without at least some.
• Setup production lines for MANPADS and ATGM.
• Analyze security of critical facilities and power plants and try to improve air defence umbrella around them.

 

[uçuyorum]

Also try to undo the damage done by Borat and try to present itself to west and western social media, western influencers. Take part in western activities, provide sponsorships etc. Increase awareness and sympathy for Kazakhstan in US and Europe.

 

[Tornadoss]

Well, shit.

https://defence-blog.com/leaked-audio-reveals-russian-plan-to-occupy-kazakhstan-territory/

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1776564321041997886

China wouldn't be happy with that.

 

[BalkanTurk90]

U guys are funny when u talk about geo-politics , When i read i thought like u are talking about beast that will eat nations one by one . Russia is not like that , And the war in Ukraine did for mutiple major reasons that any powerful nation will do just like Turkiye did in Kibris .
Russia dont have plan to attack another peaceful nation. Khazakistan is not ukraine and dont have ukraine politicans and is not killing russian civilians in mass .
Russia itself said we will not attack anyone

 

[King_West]

U guys are funny when u talk about geo-politics , When i read i thought like u are talking about beast that will eat nations one by one . Russia is not like that , And the war in Ukraine did for mutiple major reasons that any powerful nation will do just like Turkiye did in Kibris .
Russia dont have plan to attack another peaceful nation. Khazakistan is not ukraine and dont have ukraine politicans and is not killing russian civilians in mass .
Russia itself said we will not attack anyone

Russia also said they would not attack Ukraine. You are quite naieve if you think Russia would not invade Kazachstan

 

[GoatsMilk]

Acting too rash would make Russia act quicker

To the contrary we are moving far too slow. We wasted years listening being brainwashed to bullshit narratives about how Russia was our friend, that stunted our behaviour and made us weak against our number 1 foe.

What a gift the failed invasion of Ukraine is, instead of screwing the Russians, Russian style over it. We have behaved very meek. If potentially 5 years from now Russia is successful in annexing Ukraine, your kids will look at these years and lambast how silly Turkey behaved.

If it were me, i would commit a proportion of our military budget to supplying Ukraine with weapons. Whatever it costs you know to make sure Russia fails, will be pennies compared to what it will cost you in the future should they succeed.

My advice to Turks is to completely disconnect yourselves from the Russian narrative, it will rot your mind and make you behave in a counter productive manner. Where you harm yourselves to benefit of truly vile foreign oligarchy.

And i like i say to Muslims, the single biggest murderer and oppressor of Muslims in history is Russia. And if they are successful in Ukraine they will look to not only annex Muslims in central Asia, but to escalate their transgressions against Turkey. And what is Islamic civilisation if Turks are brought to heel? We saw how that played out in the 19th/20th century, where from morocco to Indonesia Muslims were occupied by Europeans. Do we want to return to those days where Muslims are so globally humilated?

"Today the Soviet Union is a friend and an ally. We need this friendship. However, no one can know what will happen tomorrow. Just like the Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian Empires it may tear itself apart or shrink in size. Those peoples that it holds so tightly in its grip may one day slip away. The world may see a new balance of power. It is then that Turkey must know what to do. Ally Soviets have under their control our brothers with whom we share language, beliefs and roots. We must be prepared to embrace them. Being ready does not mean that we will sit quietly and wait. We must get ready. How does a people get prepared for such an endeavour? By strengthening the natural bridges that exist between us. Language is a bridge... Religion is a bridge... History is a bridge... We must delve into our roots and reconstruct what history has divided. We can't wait for them to approach us. We must reach out to them."

Do our politicians not study history? Do they not think of where we were and where we need to be? Or do they exist to live day by day and to be surprised with each new event and justify with the statement "i was deceived?".

The truth is in the real world there are only winners and losers, being a loser geopolitically brings the worst horrors imaginable to your people.

 

[GoatsMilk]

And how to do it? Through Georgia?
When Russia decides to attack Kazakhstan, rest assured that it will first (or simultaneously) occupy Tbilisi and tightly close the exit to Central Asia, and then very quickly get to Tashkent itself. Türkiye does not have a corresponding agreement with either Georgia or Kazakhstan.
The organization of the Turkic states looks great on paper, but in fact, out of a hundred necessary steps, not two were taken in 33 years. This problem has been bothering me for a long time. Too much wasted time.
The only thing Ankara can do to influence Russia is this is a warning to Moscow by covering the Istanbul Strait.

Rationally the Turkish army should already be in Georgia. Then a mutual defensive pact is formed, if Georgia is attacked its a declaration of war.

Turks must realise and realise quickly the soviet union is dead and Turkey is no more a nation that has to sit back and wait, we are big enough now to be moving in many directions.