TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[IC3M@N FX]

Posted on another aviation forum:



Worth thinking about.

It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.

You should.... avoid. . At least in the defense sector, you should give them a wide berth. It's fine the way it is, the F-16 Block 70 including the upgrade kits will be the last planes from the US.
If we don't get them, we shouldn't waste any more energy trying to convince them, just convert the remaining F-16 Block 40/50s into Özgur II, the equivalent of the Block 70 Viper.

The delivery of the F-110 engines only came about because General Electric is a minority shareholder in TEI and is therefore forced to fulfill contracts that have already been concluded.
If the US government had torpedoed the deal, the Russians or Chinese would have agreed to supply the engines together with a technology transfer as in the S-400 deal.
Both have asked to help Turkey with the engines if their wonderful allies refuse.
That would have been the final straw for Turkey's NATO membership, which would then only be on paper and worth no more than a scrap of paper from Turkey's point of view. It would still be a NATO member, but would not provide any assistance to the wrong allies.

 

[Spitfire9]

You should.... avoid. . At least in the defense sector, you should give them a wide berth. It's fine the way it is, the F-16 Block 70 including the upgrade kits will be the last planes from the US.
If we don't get them, we shouldn't waste any more energy trying to convince them, just convert the remaining F-16 Block 40/50s into Özgur II, the equivalent of the Block 70 Viper.

The delivery of the F-110 engines only came about because General Electric is a minority shareholder in TEI and is therefore forced to fulfill contracts that have already been concluded.
If the US government had torpedoed the deal, the Russians or Chinese would have agreed to supply the engines together with a technology transfer as in the S-400 deal.
Both have asked to help Turkey with the engines if their wonderful allies refuse.
That would have been the final straw for Turkey's NATO membership, which would then only be on paper and worth no more than a scrap of paper from Turkey's point of view. It would still be a NATO member, but would not provide any assistance to the wrong allies.

I have not followed closely but I thought the last barriers to the F-16 deal had been removed and a contract had been signed.

If Russia or China would be happy to help with engines, that is good. What is not so good is that Russian engines are not as good as US, French and British engines and Chinese engines even less. I imagine that Russia would welcome making money out of Turkiye. Who else is interested in Russian help with engines or in buying Russian engines to power their own designs?

Out of curiosity, why does Turkiye want to stay in NATO? Who would attack Turkiye so that it needed to call on help from its NATO allies?

PS Why buy US upgrade kits if you have your own?

 

[TR_123456]

Out of curiosity, why does Turkiye want to stay in NATO? Who would attack Turkiye so that it needed to call on help from its NATO allies?

We stay in NATO because we want to,its beneficial to our foreign policy,soft/hard power,image etc.
In a war,none of the NATO members would come to our help,we know that already and we wouldnt need their help but just to show the world they wouldnt come when we would ask for their help.
A good example was Syria.

PS Why buy US upgrade kits if you have your own?

Again,political reasons.
If they say no we show their true faces to those still thinking that the Western countries are our true allies.
Did you really think we are going to buy military hardware worth $23 billion from the US?

 

[Lool]

I have not followed closely but I thought the last barriers to the F-16 deal had been removed and a contract had been signed.

If Russia or China would be happy to help with engines, that is good. What is not so good is that Russian engines are not as good as US, French and British engines and Chinese engines even less. I imagine that Russia would welcome making money out of Turkiye. Who else is interested in Russian help with engines or in buying Russian engines to power their own designs?

Out of curiosity, why does Turkiye want to stay in NATO? Who would attack Turkiye so that it needed to call on help from its NATO allies?

PS Why buy US upgrade kits if you have your own?

Even if Russia and China did offer such a deal, Turkey wont take it over the fear of sanctions; I assure you of that

As to why Turkey stays in NATO, there are a couple of factors I can think of
1- NATO is comprised of an alliance of some of the most advanced nations on Earth
2- NATO structural heirarchy is stable as opposed to alliances like the Russian/Iranian/Chinese axis
3- Geographically, Turkey is more closely linked to EU and NATO countries
4- Turkey's economy is nearly almost linked with NATO members compared to those of Russia or China
5- Turkey's military is closely linked to NATO's military standards and therefore shifting to another school/axis may cause disruptions within Turkish/Western style of military command
6- NATO as an alliance is the most advanced alliance in terms of both military and civilian technology; in addition to being one of the most effecient
7- NATO has the US which is still the supreme nation on Earth (although going downhill)
8- If Turkey left NATO, then NATO will arm Turkey's enemies like Greece and PKK even more heavily while nations on the other end of the earth like China wont even bother to help Turkey
9- EU is the largest single market and Turkey's largest export market

In other words, while NATO alliance is comprised of a bunch of a**holes, they are still quie beneficial to Turkey from am economic, political, and military point of view; although that importance has been on a decline, it is still important to date nonetheless

 

[Spitfire9]

Fq the west mate

Germany demanded that for the Eurofighter deal to pass, Turkey must cancel any East Med drilling or seismic activities
US and Sweden are prime PKK supporters; the same PKK that killed innocent Turks for the last 30+ years and still continue to do so and dream of dividing the Turkish state
Greece and Cyprus wants to steal all of Turkey's rights in its own EEZ and use it for themselves

So in order to buy some shitty planes that will have its own weapons eventually embargoed, Turkey will effectively sell its own land, sea rights, and people
Such great relations with great allies, mate

I was suggesting that Turkiye act to safeguard in its own interests by ensuring access to an engine for KAAN until an indigenous one is available.

Since it is unlikely that any country will attack Turkiye in the near future, perhaps it would not matter greatly if F110 for KAAN were blocked and Turkiye's air force were below strength until KAAN turned up in the air force with the 35kN locally produced engine. KAAN powered by a Turkish engine could be coming off the assembly line in another 10 years. That would give the Turkish aviation industry sufficient time to fully develop the aircraft's systems before the aircraft went into production.

The opportunity to buy shitty planes - somewhat better than the planes you are buying from the US - has gone. The genius diplomacy of your president during his visit to Germany more or less eliminated that possibility. You are welcome to fly your shittier planes as your best fighters until KAAN arrives on the scene - with or without F110 engines.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

I was suggesting that Turkiye act to safeguard in its own interests by ensuring access to an engine for KAAN until an indigenous one is available.

Since it is unlikely that any country will attack Turkiye in the near future, perhaps it would not matter greatly if F110 for KAAN were blocked and Turkiye's air force were below strength until KAAN turned up in the air force with the 35kN locally produced engine. KAAN powered by a Turkish engine could be coming off the assembly line in another 10 years. That would give the Turkish aviation industry sufficient time to fully develop the aircraft's systems before the aircraft went into production.

The opportunity to buy shitty planes - somewhat better than the planes you are buying from the US - has gone. The genius diplomacy of your president during his visit to Germany more or less eliminated that possibility. You are welcome to fly your shittier planes as your best fighters until KAAN arrives on the scene - with or without F110 engines.

It is not about that but about general sanctions and embargoes; the whole world knows in secret that these embargoes and sanctions have a different purpose. On the outside, this is sold as a lack of democracy and human rights in Turkey as a universal justification. The facts are simply different - you don't sell F-16s, F-15s, Eurofighters and Rafaele to countries like Saudi Arabia, India, Qatar and Israel, even though these countries are constantly whistling and spitting on human rights, press freedom and so on.
Conversely, this shows that only these embargoes have a strategic purpose, Turkey should not be self-sufficient and conduct its own sovereign policy.
They don't want to divide up the cake any further.
In the view of some European countries, Turkey is a rival and they are not supported, even if Turkey were to behave correctly. Geographically, Turkey has access to all hubs in this case Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. This alone makes it indispensable for military strikes as it acts geographically like an aircraft carrier.

You can also see the resistance, Turkey has gained a foothold in North and Central Africa through soft power and the victims were Europe and France, which lost power and influence there.

 

[I_Love_F16]

If the US government had torpedoed the deal, the Russians or Chinese would have agreed to supply the engines together with a technology transfer as in the S-400 deal.

Curious to know what we gained in that S400 deal ? What kind of technology did the Russians transfer to us ?

 

[IC3M@N FX]

Curious to know what we gained in that S400 deal ? What kind of technology did the Russians transfer to us ?

It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.
It's not about whether we copied part x or y to make system A work, but how things got to know how these systems actually work hardware & software technically in a deeper sense.
Air defense systems of this type are generally extremely complex systems and it takes at least 15-20 years to develop systems that actually work, sometimes much longer.
Look at how fast we have progressed Siper Block 1 has 100+ km range and Siper Block 2 which is coming out soon 150+ km range that is astromic and Turkey has not developed any systems of this type before as precursor/predecessor except the Hisar series which has also undergone updates.

Don't you find that strange? You buy the S-400 system but it is more or less inactive in the warehouse.
They weren't interested in the system itself as a defensive weapon, but in knowing how it works and what requirements have to be met for it to work in both hardware and software. The leap that Turkey has made in air defense systems of different classes in the last 10 years is gigantic and that with its own Link 16 equilalent and sensor fusion.

 

[Afif]

It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.

I don't SIPER program directly or indirectly has anything remotely to do with SA-21 Growler deal.

 

[I_Love_F16]

It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.
It's not about whether we copied part x or y to make system A work, but how things got to know how these systems actually work hardware & software technically in a deeper sense.
Air defense systems of this type are generally extremely complex systems and it takes at least 15-20 years to develop systems that actually work, sometimes much longer.
Look at how fast we have progressed Siper Block 1 has 100+ km range and Siper Block 2 which is coming out soon 150+ km range that is astromic and Turkey has not developed any systems of this type before as precursor/predecessor except the Hisar series which has also undergone updates.

Don't you find that strange? You buy the S-400 system but it is more or less inactive in the warehouse.
They weren't interested in the system itself as a defensive weapon, but in knowing how it works and what requirements have to be met for it to work in both hardware and software. The leap that Turkey has made in air defense systems of different classes in the last 10 years is gigantic and that with its own Link 16 equilalent and sensor fusion.

Well, Hisar A and O development began around 2007 if I'm not mistaken. That left plenty of time for Roketsan to gain some experience and be able to develop something like Siper. Personnally, I don't think that we gained something from the S-400. Just like the Akkuyu Nuclear power plant.