TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Tornadoss]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819000108047819234

Turkey has been blocking NATO-Israel cooperation since October.

Turkey argues that NATO should not cooperate with Israel until the war in Gaza is over.

Turkey has vetoed all NATO-Israel interactions since October, including meetings and joint exercises.

Turkey maintains that Israel’s massacres of Palestinians in Gaza are against NATO’s founding principles.

Turkey will continue to block NATO-Israel cooperation until the war is over, preventing Israel from continuing or developing its interactions with NATO.

I am not sure whether there are any effect of this considering US support to the Israel. So it's more like symbolic.

 

[Kartal1]

I am not sure whether there are any effect of this considering US support to the Israel. So it's more like symbolic.

No effect at all. Countries within NATO are continuing cooperation with Israel on a bilateral level. If such a veto creates a big impact on Israel's national security I am sure that the countries interested in cooperation with Israel will establish a new body in order to bypass Turkiye's NATO veto. We are talking about Israel here, the spoiled child.

 

[TheInsider]

Hakan Fidan: If you do not have capacity, you will be defeated in wars and exploited at the tables during peace.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1818729526102302991

Thx Captain obvious for saving the day again.

 

[Kartal1]

Thx Captain obvious for saving the day again.

The second part of his statement is in a direct relation to what Turkiye managed to achieve during its passive period.

 

[TheInsider]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1819000108047819234

Turkey has been blocking NATO-Israel cooperation since October.

Turkey argues that NATO should not cooperate with Israel until the war in Gaza is over.

Turkey has vetoed all NATO-Israel interactions since October, including meetings and joint exercises.

Turkey maintains that Israel’s massacres of Palestinians in Gaza are against NATO’s founding principles.

Turkey will continue to block NATO-Israel cooperation until the war is over, preventing Israel from continuing or developing its interactions with NATO.

What can be done is very limited. We should have never accepted the NATO-Israel deal in the past (Erdogan voted in favor of it).

 

[Rooxbar]

You should always act within the bounds of possibility in the world you live in, not some imagined world. Haste, reaction, ideological ossification are on the top of the list of things you don't want in your political leader.

 

[Sanchez]

Fidan is in Egypt today. His plane landed in Arish in the Sinai and will presumably visit Rafah first.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820054139302260951

 

[Sanchez]

"Iraqi top court dissolves three political parties for being linked to PKK.
The Judicial authority’s decree, upon the request of Iraq’s National Security Advisor Qassem al-Araji, ordered the dissolution of the Yazidi Democratic Freedom party, the Democratic al-Nidhal Front party, and the Kurdistan Free Society party."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1820564537567047686

 

[Kartal1]

Gokhan G., an engineer of Turkish origin who works for the US Department of Defense, was arrested on charges of hiding dozens of secret military documents in his home. An investigation is ongoing to determine the purpose for which G. collected the documents in question.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1822305202575139108

 

[Sanchez]

Phone call between Abiy and Erdoğan re Somalia. We'll either see a deal neither side like but can live with or open hostilities.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1822349924710625431

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823370675354063002

 

[Sanchez]

As expected.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823372316870344770

 

[Sanchez]

"The recent formation of Kirkuk's local government represents a significant diplomatic victory for Iran at Turkey's expense on the regional level.

Yesterday, Turkey's ruling AKP party declared the election of a PUK governor "unacceptable," criticizing the exclusion of the Turkmen Front, KDP, and certain Arab factions. Conversely, the pro-Iranian Shia-led coalition government in Baghdad has thrown its full support behind the new governor.

Historically, northern Iraq, unlike the rest of the country, has been viewed as falling more within Turkey's sphere of influence, while the southern regions have maintained closer ties with Iran. However, recent developments suggest a shift in this dynamic. The formation of local governments in both Kirkuk and Nineveh appears to be effectively transforming these two provinces into Iran-friendly territories. The alliances shaping these new local administrations are predominantly aligned with Iranian interests.

Prior to the December 2023 local elections, the political landscape in these two governorates was more ambiguous, with governors generally perceived as more sympathetic to Turkish interests even through the Hashd presence made Iran's influence clearly visible in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In light of these changes, Erbil and Duhok can now be considered the last remaining strongholds of direct Turkish influence in the region.

This geopolitical realignment carries significant implications for the balance of power in northern Iraq and the broader Middle East. It potentially signals a weakening of Turkey's traditional influence in the area and a corresponding expansion of Iran's regional clout."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823430807022919820

@Kartal1, I thought we should have won in the field and then lose at the table, but more so it looks like we're losing both in the field and the table recently.

 

[Kartal1]

"The recent formation of Kirkuk's local government represents a significant diplomatic victory for Iran at Turkey's expense on the regional level.

Yesterday, Turkey's ruling AKP party declared the election of a PUK governor "unacceptable," criticizing the exclusion of the Turkmen Front, KDP, and certain Arab factions. Conversely, the pro-Iranian Shia-led coalition government in Baghdad has thrown its full support behind the new governor.

Historically, northern Iraq, unlike the rest of the country, has been viewed as falling more within Turkey's sphere of influence, while the southern regions have maintained closer ties with Iran. However, recent developments suggest a shift in this dynamic. The formation of local governments in both Kirkuk and Nineveh appears to be effectively transforming these two provinces into Iran-friendly territories. The alliances shaping these new local administrations are predominantly aligned with Iranian interests.

Prior to the December 2023 local elections, the political landscape in these two governorates was more ambiguous, with governors generally perceived as more sympathetic to Turkish interests even through the Hashd presence made Iran's influence clearly visible in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In light of these changes, Erbil and Duhok can now be considered the last remaining strongholds of direct Turkish influence in the region.

This geopolitical realignment carries significant implications for the balance of power in northern Iraq and the broader Middle East. It potentially signals a weakening of Turkey's traditional influence in the area and a corresponding expansion of Iran's regional clout."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823430807022919820

@Kartal1, I thought we should have won in the field and then lose at the table, but more so it looks like we're losing both in the field and the table recently.

Thank you for sharing the news. I couldn't find the time to dig up something as valuable as this.

Unfortunately you are right. This development and the text is explanatory enough for the things we write about a couple of times a week.

The continuation of the military success of TSK in the areas of operation is tightly connected to the internal political developments and balance within KRG. With the emergence of the DEASH threat, Iran managed to disrupt this balance in their favor while we were sleeping (again). The Iranian expansion in Iraq and the whole region didn't happen overnight. It is in result of years and years of dedicated and sustained work, based on a stable ground. While we knew what may happen we actively started talking about it recently, especially after the new type of Iranian military assistance for the PKK in Iraq which costed us a lot.

I hope you see the reason why I am against a large scale military conflict and rapid escalation when it comes to the region. Our presence in both Syria and Iraq is very delicate theme of talk. Our whole success is currently like a castle of glass. Our only root in Iraq is the fact that we exert an extremely big influence at the Barzanis and now we see that they are not in their best shape. We saw some positive developments that we could exploit around the Turkmen part of Hashdi Shaabi, but still nothing serious.

I am on the opinion that our best chance in breaking the Iranian influence would be to touch a bit harder. I think we should exploit the fragile "democracy" there while starting heavy propaganda campaign against PUK, exploit the internal division within PUK, win the trust of someone important in there, make him reconciliate with KDP together with his entourage, make them meet a Turkmen representative, market this reconciliation as a new KRG unity movement and alienate the rest of the pro-Iran people, labeling them trough the strong media network of KDP and making the "friendly" Talabani guy speak about some things from the kitchen concerning Iran and their allies that wouldn't be very liked in the public. I am sure that any prominent guy from PUK can talk with months, non-stop about corruption, inequality, dominance and what not.

This is my wishful thinking and in parallel with this of course other developments must be tightly controlled like the prevention of a grouping of the "Kurdistan Hezbollah", intensifying our intelligence contacts within the Turkmens and other circles within the PMU, within the frame of "making some new friends", touch a bit harder on PKK and PMU media representatives, lawyers, intelligence and other collaborators from all levels of society. I think we fail to bring the heat at the "civilian" component of the PKK-PUK-Iran trio. We should start thinking about it and there's a very good legitimation coming from the assistance of PUK for the Iranian weapons deliveries and hosting PKK's depots and manufacturing facilities. We should do it Israeli style (in the good meaning).

"Who did it"

"The Belgians"

All these components of our damage control measures are tied to each other. There's no "this one is more important than the other". This highlights the importance of high capacity intelligence service and a strategic mind. Intelligence, Military, Diplomacy should be moving equally good because as we currently see if one or more components of the whole operation lack behind it can not only stagnate the advance on another front, within another component, but also endanger the current advances.

Capacity, Elasticity, Agility, Deterrence

I literally pray we manage to somehow keep the balance without something big happening for 5-6 years, 4 in the worst case so we manage to work on these highlighted two. We have the potential, but the time is not on our side.

 

[Lool]

"The recent formation of Kirkuk's local government represents a significant diplomatic victory for Iran at Turkey's expense on the regional level.

Yesterday, Turkey's ruling AKP party declared the election of a PUK governor "unacceptable," criticizing the exclusion of the Turkmen Front, KDP, and certain Arab factions. Conversely, the pro-Iranian Shia-led coalition government in Baghdad has thrown its full support behind the new governor.

Historically, northern Iraq, unlike the rest of the country, has been viewed as falling more within Turkey's sphere of influence, while the southern regions have maintained closer ties with Iran. However, recent developments suggest a shift in this dynamic. The formation of local governments in both Kirkuk and Nineveh appears to be effectively transforming these two provinces into Iran-friendly territories. The alliances shaping these new local administrations are predominantly aligned with Iranian interests.

Prior to the December 2023 local elections, the political landscape in these two governorates was more ambiguous, with governors generally perceived as more sympathetic to Turkish interests even through the Hashd presence made Iran's influence clearly visible in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In light of these changes, Erbil and Duhok can now be considered the last remaining strongholds of direct Turkish influence in the region.

This geopolitical realignment carries significant implications for the balance of power in northern Iraq and the broader Middle East. It potentially signals a weakening of Turkey's traditional influence in the area and a corresponding expansion of Iran's regional clout."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1823430807022919820

@Kartal1, I thought we should have won in the field and then lose at the table, but more so it looks like we're losing both in the field and the table recently.

I did post a long reply but I wanted to summarise it a lot; yet sadly couldnt. In summary,
The recent spike in Iranian influence in the region is Iran's response to the successfull TSK operation in northern Iraq.

For those that dont know, Turkey is like the black sheep in the region; no one wants it gone but at the same time no one wants to see a strong Turkey. A strong Turkey could potentially turn the Middle East into a playground for Turkey just like how the USA considers the EU its primary playground. For foreign nations, the ideal position of Turkey is a nation that isnt too strong to exert its own potential but at the same time not too weak to not be considered a threat by one's enemies

For such a condition to be met, especially with Turkey's increasing strength, a destabilising factor to disrupt Turkey is needed and that is the PKK. The PKK is the optimal tool to crush Turkey and even potentially dismember it in the long term and that is why all players from all sorts of axis will not only protect but also finance the PKK; from Russia and Iran to the USA and Israel, from the Gulf to Assad etc...

IMO, Turkey is swallowing the bitter pill for not waking up early to what was happening in the region. Any leader who ruled Turkey, for the last 40-50 years at the least, prior to 2016 is an accomplice against the Turkish nation and its people; and that includes Erdogan himself who is fighting the PKK too late tbh

Its kinda weird for Turkish members in this forum to not expect such a response when foreign nations were spreading their filthy tentacles for the past 40 years while Turkey just started acting less than 10 years ago

Rn the Iranian plan is to get enough support to put a halt to the Turkish operation in Iraq or to at least kick the TSK out after the complete their operation so that Iran, Russia, USA, amd Israel can reestablish a new and stronger PKK to counter Turkey's influence since a Turkey free from the PKK is like a Turkey that successfully emerged as a victor, from the fight against a nasty disease, with a greater strength and vigor!

This means the cycle of suffering experienced by the Turkish citizen will continue until the US, Iran, Russia, Israel, and Assad witness Turkey subdivided into 2 smaller states or the PKK is dealt with for good

 

[Spitfire9]

Posted on another aviation forum:

Turkiye successfully managed to exclude itself from the list of customer for the following aircrafts:
- F-35 and probably F-15X and F/A-18E/F too (S-400 affair),
- Rafale (Diplomatic relations with France, Greece and Cyprus),
- Eurofighter (Diplomatic relations with Germany),
- Gripen (Diplomatic tensions with Sweden),
- Su-30/Su-35 (NATO incompatibility)

Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.
TAI Kaan is currently the only prospect for Turkiye in the 2030-2040s, they have no choice.

Worth thinking about.

It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.

 

[Lool]

Posted on another aviation forum:



Worth thinking about.

It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.

Fq the west mate

Germany demanded that for the Eurofighter deal to pass, Turkey must cancel any East Med drilling or seismic activities
US and Sweden are prime PKK supporters; the same PKK that killed innocent Turks for the last 30+ years and still continue to do so and dream of dividing the Turkish state
Greece and Cyprus wants to steal all of Turkey's rights in its own EEZ and use it for themselves

So in order to buy some shitty planes that will have its own weapons eventually embargoed, Turkey will effectively sell its own land, sea rights, and people
Such great relations with great allies, mate

 

[TR_123456]

Posted on another aviation forum:



Worth thinking about.

It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.

''Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.''

The Aegean Sea is not even an issue when Athens and all the airfields are within range of our missiles(from land and sea).
If necessary we can wait for the KAAN,no problem.

 

[uçuyorum]

''Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.''

The Aegean Sea is not even an issue when Athens and all the airfields are within range of our missiles(from land and sea).
If necessary we can wait for the KAAN,no problem.

Everyone around us is getting rafale, eurofighter, f15 or f35 with aesa radars. We are the only ones left with only F16 and old doppler radars.
Greece, Egypt, Uae, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel.

Heck romania is getting F35

 

[Lool]

Everyone around us is getting rafale, eurofighter, f15 or f35 with aesa radars. We are the only ones left with only F16 and old doppler radars.
Greece, Egypt, Uae, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel

Let me share an oldie but a goodie

Inf news: 'When you buy an F-35, you do not own the plane. The plane becomes your owner
The USA sends a password to the countries purchasing F-35s before each use via the LINK-16 data sharing system in order to operate the aircraft and put it into combat mode (war mode) if necessary.
The British pilot cannot log in to the plane and cannot start it. It is claimed that the South Korean pilots who bought 40 F-35s are "tired" of this situation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1817234238485168450

Buying the most advanced weapons doesnt mean that your army is good; that is how third rate armies thinks like Saudi Arabia, Greece, UAE, and Egypt thinks

To be effective you need to own the weapons, such weapons need to be cost-effective and effecient and its users must be proficient in it
Fighter jets that need a password from the US for every flight, a training manual from the US, and cost 10,000 dollars per hour of flight are factors of how to destrot your army in record time and not the opposite