Thank you for sharing the news. I couldn't find the time to dig up something as valuable as this."The recent formation of Kirkuk's local government represents a significant diplomatic victory for Iran at Turkey's expense on the regional level.
Yesterday, Turkey's ruling AKP party declared the election of a PUK governor "unacceptable," criticizing the exclusion of the Turkmen Front, KDP, and certain Arab factions. Conversely, the pro-Iranian Shia-led coalition government in Baghdad has thrown its full support behind the new governor.
Historically, northern Iraq, unlike the rest of the country, has been viewed as falling more within Turkey's sphere of influence, while the southern regions have maintained closer ties with Iran. However, recent developments suggest a shift in this dynamic. The formation of local governments in both Kirkuk and Nineveh appears to be effectively transforming these two provinces into Iran-friendly territories. The alliances shaping these new local administrations are predominantly aligned with Iranian interests.
Prior to the December 2023 local elections, the political landscape in these two governorates was more ambiguous, with governors generally perceived as more sympathetic to Turkish interests even through the Hashd presence made Iran's influence clearly visible in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In light of these changes, Erbil and Duhok can now be considered the last remaining strongholds of direct Turkish influence in the region.
This geopolitical realignment carries significant implications for the balance of power in northern Iraq and the broader Middle East. It potentially signals a weakening of Turkey's traditional influence in the area and a corresponding expansion of Iran's regional clout."
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@Kartal1, I thought we should have won in the field and then lose at the table, but more so it looks like we're losing both in the field and the table recently.
I did post a long reply but I wanted to summarise it a lot; yet sadly couldnt"The recent formation of Kirkuk's local government represents a significant diplomatic victory for Iran at Turkey's expense on the regional level.
Yesterday, Turkey's ruling AKP party declared the election of a PUK governor "unacceptable," criticizing the exclusion of the Turkmen Front, KDP, and certain Arab factions. Conversely, the pro-Iranian Shia-led coalition government in Baghdad has thrown its full support behind the new governor.
Historically, northern Iraq, unlike the rest of the country, has been viewed as falling more within Turkey's sphere of influence, while the southern regions have maintained closer ties with Iran. However, recent developments suggest a shift in this dynamic. The formation of local governments in both Kirkuk and Nineveh appears to be effectively transforming these two provinces into Iran-friendly territories. The alliances shaping these new local administrations are predominantly aligned with Iranian interests.
Prior to the December 2023 local elections, the political landscape in these two governorates was more ambiguous, with governors generally perceived as more sympathetic to Turkish interests even through the Hashd presence made Iran's influence clearly visible in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In light of these changes, Erbil and Duhok can now be considered the last remaining strongholds of direct Turkish influence in the region.
This geopolitical realignment carries significant implications for the balance of power in northern Iraq and the broader Middle East. It potentially signals a weakening of Turkey's traditional influence in the area and a corresponding expansion of Iran's regional clout."
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@Kartal1, I thought we should have won in the field and then lose at the table, but more so it looks like we're losing both in the field and the table recently.
Turkiye successfully managed to exclude itself from the list of customer for the following aircrafts:
- F-35 and probably F-15X and F/A-18E/F too (S-400 affair),
- Rafale (Diplomatic relations with France, Greece and Cyprus),
- Eurofighter (Diplomatic relations with Germany),
- Gripen (Diplomatic tensions with Sweden),
- Su-30/Su-35 (NATO incompatibility)
Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.
TAI Kaan is currently the only prospect for Turkiye in the 2030-2040s, they have no choice.
Fq the west matePosted on another aviation forum:
Worth thinking about.
It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.
''Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.''Posted on another aviation forum:
Worth thinking about.
It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.
Everyone around us is getting rafale, eurofighter, f15 or f35 with aesa radars. We are the only ones left with only F16 and old doppler radars.''Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.''
The Aegean Sea is not even an issue when Athens and all the airfields are within range of our missiles(from land and sea).
If necessary we can wait for the KAAN,no problem.
Let me share an oldie but a goodieEveryone around us is getting rafale, eurofighter, f15 or f35 with aesa radars. We are the only ones left with only F16 and old doppler radars.
Greece, Egypt, Uae, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel
You should.... avoid. . At least in the defense sector, you should give them a wide berth. It's fine the way it is, the F-16 Block 70 including the upgrade kits will be the last planes from the US.Posted on another aviation forum:
Worth thinking about.
It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.
I have not followed closely but I thought the last barriers to the F-16 deal had been removed and a contract had been signed.You should.... avoid. . At least in the defense sector, you should give them a wide berth. It's fine the way it is, the F-16 Block 70 including the upgrade kits will be the last planes from the US.
If we don't get them, we shouldn't waste any more energy trying to convince them, just convert the remaining F-16 Block 40/50s into Özgur II, the equivalent of the Block 70 Viper.
The delivery of the F-110 engines only came about because General Electric is a minority shareholder in TEI and is therefore forced to fulfill contracts that have already been concluded.
If the US government had torpedoed the deal, the Russians or Chinese would have agreed to supply the engines together with a technology transfer as in the S-400 deal.
Both have asked to help Turkey with the engines if their wonderful allies refuse.
That would have been the final straw for Turkey's NATO membership, which would then only be on paper and worth no more than a scrap of paper from Turkey's point of view. It would still be a NATO member, but would not provide any assistance to the wrong allies.
We stay in NATO because we want to,its beneficial to our foreign policy,soft/hard power,image etc.Out of curiosity, why does Turkiye want to stay in NATO? Who would attack Turkiye so that it needed to call on help from its NATO allies?
Again,political reasons.PS Why buy US upgrade kits if you have your own?
Even if Russia and China did offer such a deal, Turkey wont take it over the fear of sanctions; I assure you of thatI have not followed closely but I thought the last barriers to the F-16 deal had been removed and a contract had been signed.
If Russia or China would be happy to help with engines, that is good. What is not so good is that Russian engines are not as good as US, French and British engines and Chinese engines even less. I imagine that Russia would welcome making money out of Turkiye. Who else is interested in Russian help with engines or in buying Russian engines to power their own designs?
Out of curiosity, why does Turkiye want to stay in NATO? Who would attack Turkiye so that it needed to call on help from its NATO allies?
PS Why buy US upgrade kits if you have your own?
I was suggesting that Turkiye act to safeguard in its own interests by ensuring access to an engine for KAAN until an indigenous one is available.Fq the west mate
Germany demanded that for the Eurofighter deal to pass, Turkey must cancel any East Med drilling or seismic activities
US and Sweden are prime PKK supporters; the same PKK that killed innocent Turks for the last 30+ years and still continue to do so and dream of dividing the Turkish state
Greece and Cyprus wants to steal all of Turkey's rights in its own EEZ and use it for themselves
So in order to buy some shitty planes that will have its own weapons eventually embargoed, Turkey will effectively sell its own land, sea rights, and people
Such great relations with great allies, mate
It is not about that but about general sanctions and embargoes; the whole world knows in secret that these embargoes and sanctions have a different purpose. On the outside, this is sold as a lack of democracy and human rights in Turkey as a universal justification. The facts are simply different - you don't sell F-16s, F-15s, Eurofighters and Rafaele to countries like Saudi Arabia, India, Qatar and Israel, even though these countries are constantly whistling and spitting on human rights, press freedom and so on.I was suggesting that Turkiye act to safeguard in its own interests by ensuring access to an engine for KAAN until an indigenous one is available.
Since it is unlikely that any country will attack Turkiye in the near future, perhaps it would not matter greatly if F110 for KAAN were blocked and Turkiye's air force were below strength until KAAN turned up in the air force with the 35kN locally produced engine. KAAN powered by a Turkish engine could be coming off the assembly line in another 10 years. That would give the Turkish aviation industry sufficient time to fully develop the aircraft's systems before the aircraft went into production.
The opportunity to buy shitty planes - somewhat better than the planes you are buying from the US - has gone. The genius diplomacy of your president during his visit to Germany more or less eliminated that possibility. You are welcome to fly your shittier planes as your best fighters until KAAN arrives on the scene - with or without F110 engines.
If the US government had torpedoed the deal, the Russians or Chinese would have agreed to supply the engines together with a technology transfer as in the S-400 deal.
It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.Curious to know what we gained in that S400 deal ? What kind of technology did the Russians transfer to us ?
It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.
It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.
It's not about whether we copied part x or y to make system A work, but how things got to know how these systems actually work hardware & software technically in a deeper sense.
Air defense systems of this type are generally extremely complex systems and it takes at least 15-20 years to develop systems that actually work, sometimes much longer.
Look at how fast we have progressed Siper Block 1 has 100+ km range and Siper Block 2 which is coming out soon 150+ km range that is astromic and Turkey has not developed any systems of this type before as precursor/predecessor except the Hisar series which has also undergone updates.
Don't you find that strange? You buy the S-400 system but it is more or less inactive in the warehouse.
They weren't interested in the system itself as a defensive weapon, but in knowing how it works and what requirements have to be met for it to work in both hardware and software. The leap that Turkey has made in air defense systems of different classes in the last 10 years is gigantic and that with its own Link 16 equilalent and sensor fusion.