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Sanchez

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"The recent formation of Kirkuk's local government represents a significant diplomatic victory for Iran at Turkey's expense on the regional level.

Yesterday, Turkey's ruling AKP party declared the election of a PUK governor "unacceptable," criticizing the exclusion of the Turkmen Front, KDP, and certain Arab factions. Conversely, the pro-Iranian Shia-led coalition government in Baghdad has thrown its full support behind the new governor.

Historically, northern Iraq, unlike the rest of the country, has been viewed as falling more within Turkey's sphere of influence, while the southern regions have maintained closer ties with Iran. However, recent developments suggest a shift in this dynamic. The formation of local governments in both Kirkuk and Nineveh appears to be effectively transforming these two provinces into Iran-friendly territories. The alliances shaping these new local administrations are predominantly aligned with Iranian interests.

Prior to the December 2023 local elections, the political landscape in these two governorates was more ambiguous, with governors generally perceived as more sympathetic to Turkish interests even through the Hashd presence made Iran's influence clearly visible in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In light of these changes, Erbil and Duhok can now be considered the last remaining strongholds of direct Turkish influence in the region.

This geopolitical realignment carries significant implications for the balance of power in northern Iraq and the broader Middle East. It potentially signals a weakening of Turkey's traditional influence in the area and a corresponding expansion of Iran's regional clout."

tMq6tOR.jpeg



@Kartal1, I thought we should have won in the field and then lose at the table, but more so it looks like we're losing both in the field and the table recently.
 

Kartal1

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"The recent formation of Kirkuk's local government represents a significant diplomatic victory for Iran at Turkey's expense on the regional level.

Yesterday, Turkey's ruling AKP party declared the election of a PUK governor "unacceptable," criticizing the exclusion of the Turkmen Front, KDP, and certain Arab factions. Conversely, the pro-Iranian Shia-led coalition government in Baghdad has thrown its full support behind the new governor.

Historically, northern Iraq, unlike the rest of the country, has been viewed as falling more within Turkey's sphere of influence, while the southern regions have maintained closer ties with Iran. However, recent developments suggest a shift in this dynamic. The formation of local governments in both Kirkuk and Nineveh appears to be effectively transforming these two provinces into Iran-friendly territories. The alliances shaping these new local administrations are predominantly aligned with Iranian interests.

Prior to the December 2023 local elections, the political landscape in these two governorates was more ambiguous, with governors generally perceived as more sympathetic to Turkish interests even through the Hashd presence made Iran's influence clearly visible in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In light of these changes, Erbil and Duhok can now be considered the last remaining strongholds of direct Turkish influence in the region.

This geopolitical realignment carries significant implications for the balance of power in northern Iraq and the broader Middle East. It potentially signals a weakening of Turkey's traditional influence in the area and a corresponding expansion of Iran's regional clout."

tMq6tOR.jpeg



@Kartal1, I thought we should have won in the field and then lose at the table, but more so it looks like we're losing both in the field and the table recently.
Thank you for sharing the news. I couldn't find the time to dig up something as valuable as this.

Unfortunately you are right. This development and the text is explanatory enough for the things we write about a couple of times a week.

The continuation of the military success of TSK in the areas of operation is tightly connected to the internal political developments and balance within KRG. With the emergence of the DEASH threat, Iran managed to disrupt this balance in their favor while we were sleeping (again). The Iranian expansion in Iraq and the whole region didn't happen overnight. It is in result of years and years of dedicated and sustained work, based on a stable ground. While we knew what may happen we actively started talking about it recently, especially after the new type of Iranian military assistance for the PKK in Iraq which costed us a lot.

I hope you see the reason why I am against a large scale military conflict and rapid escalation when it comes to the region. Our presence in both Syria and Iraq is very delicate theme of talk. Our whole success is currently like a castle of glass. Our only root in Iraq is the fact that we exert an extremely big influence at the Barzanis and now we see that they are not in their best shape. We saw some positive developments that we could exploit around the Turkmen part of Hashdi Shaabi, but still nothing serious.

I am on the opinion that our best chance in breaking the Iranian influence would be to touch a bit harder. I think we should exploit the fragile "democracy" there while starting heavy propaganda campaign against PUK, exploit the internal division within PUK, win the trust of someone important in there, make him reconciliate with KDP together with his entourage, make them meet a Turkmen representative, market this reconciliation as a new KRG unity movement and alienate the rest of the pro-Iran people, labeling them trough the strong media network of KDP and making the "friendly" Talabani guy speak about some things from the kitchen concerning Iran and their allies that wouldn't be very liked in the public. I am sure that any prominent guy from PUK can talk with months, non-stop about corruption, inequality, dominance and what not.

This is my wishful thinking and in parallel with this of course other developments must be tightly controlled like the prevention of a grouping of the "Kurdistan Hezbollah", intensifying our intelligence contacts within the Turkmens and other circles within the PMU, within the frame of "making some new friends", touch a bit harder on PKK and PMU media representatives, lawyers, intelligence and other collaborators from all levels of society. I think we fail to bring the heat at the "civilian" component of the PKK-PUK-Iran trio. We should start thinking about it and there's a very good legitimation coming from the assistance of PUK for the Iranian weapons deliveries and hosting PKK's depots and manufacturing facilities. We should do it Israeli style (in the good meaning).

"Who did it"

"The Belgians"

All these components of our damage control measures are tied to each other. There's no "this one is more important than the other". This highlights the importance of high capacity intelligence service and a strategic mind. Intelligence, Military, Diplomacy should be moving equally good because as we currently see if one or more components of the whole operation lack behind it can not only stagnate the advance on another front, within another component, but also endanger the current advances.

Capacity, Elasticity, Agility, Deterrence

I literally pray we manage to somehow keep the balance without something big happening for 5-6 years, 4 in the worst case so we manage to work on these highlighted two. We have the potential, but the time is not on our side.
 

Lool

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"The recent formation of Kirkuk's local government represents a significant diplomatic victory for Iran at Turkey's expense on the regional level.

Yesterday, Turkey's ruling AKP party declared the election of a PUK governor "unacceptable," criticizing the exclusion of the Turkmen Front, KDP, and certain Arab factions. Conversely, the pro-Iranian Shia-led coalition government in Baghdad has thrown its full support behind the new governor.

Historically, northern Iraq, unlike the rest of the country, has been viewed as falling more within Turkey's sphere of influence, while the southern regions have maintained closer ties with Iran. However, recent developments suggest a shift in this dynamic. The formation of local governments in both Kirkuk and Nineveh appears to be effectively transforming these two provinces into Iran-friendly territories. The alliances shaping these new local administrations are predominantly aligned with Iranian interests.

Prior to the December 2023 local elections, the political landscape in these two governorates was more ambiguous, with governors generally perceived as more sympathetic to Turkish interests even through the Hashd presence made Iran's influence clearly visible in both Mosul and Kirkuk. In light of these changes, Erbil and Duhok can now be considered the last remaining strongholds of direct Turkish influence in the region.

This geopolitical realignment carries significant implications for the balance of power in northern Iraq and the broader Middle East. It potentially signals a weakening of Turkey's traditional influence in the area and a corresponding expansion of Iran's regional clout."

tMq6tOR.jpeg



@Kartal1, I thought we should have won in the field and then lose at the table, but more so it looks like we're losing both in the field and the table recently.
I did post a long reply but I wanted to summarise it a lot; yet sadly couldnt😅. In summary,
The recent spike in Iranian influence in the region is Iran's response to the successfull TSK operation in northern Iraq.

For those that dont know, Turkey is like the black sheep in the region; no one wants it gone but at the same time no one wants to see a strong Turkey. A strong Turkey could potentially turn the Middle East into a playground for Turkey just like how the USA considers the EU its primary playground. For foreign nations, the ideal position of Turkey is a nation that isnt too strong to exert its own potential but at the same time not too weak to not be considered a threat by one's enemies

For such a condition to be met, especially with Turkey's increasing strength, a destabilising factor to disrupt Turkey is needed and that is the PKK. The PKK is the optimal tool to crush Turkey and even potentially dismember it in the long term and that is why all players from all sorts of axis will not only protect but also finance the PKK; from Russia and Iran to the USA and Israel, from the Gulf to Assad etc...

IMO, Turkey is swallowing the bitter pill for not waking up early to what was happening in the region. Any leader who ruled Turkey, for the last 40-50 years at the least, prior to 2016 is an accomplice against the Turkish nation and its people; and that includes Erdogan himself who is fighting the PKK too late tbh

Its kinda weird for Turkish members in this forum to not expect such a response when foreign nations were spreading their filthy tentacles for the past 40 years while Turkey just started acting less than 10 years ago

Rn the Iranian plan is to get enough support to put a halt to the Turkish operation in Iraq or to at least kick the TSK out after the complete their operation so that Iran, Russia, USA, amd Israel can reestablish a new and stronger PKK to counter Turkey's influence since a Turkey free from the PKK is like a Turkey that successfully emerged as a victor, from the fight against a nasty disease, with a greater strength and vigor!

This means the cycle of suffering experienced by the Turkish citizen will continue until the US, Iran, Russia, Israel, and Assad witness Turkey subdivided into 2 smaller states or the PKK is dealt with for good
 
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Spitfire9

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Posted on another aviation forum:

Turkiye successfully managed to exclude itself from the list of customer for the following aircrafts:
- F-35 and probably F-15X and F/A-18E/F too (S-400 affair),
- Rafale (Diplomatic relations with France, Greece and Cyprus),
- Eurofighter (Diplomatic relations with Germany),
- Gripen (Diplomatic tensions with Sweden),
- Su-30/Su-35 (NATO incompatibility)

Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.
TAI Kaan is currently the only prospect for Turkiye in the 2030-2040s, they have no choice.

Worth thinking about.

It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.
 
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Lool

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Posted on another aviation forum:



Worth thinking about.

It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.
Fq the west mate

Germany demanded that for the Eurofighter deal to pass, Turkey must cancel any East Med drilling or seismic activities
US and Sweden are prime PKK supporters; the same PKK that killed innocent Turks for the last 30+ years and still continue to do so and dream of dividing the Turkish state
Greece and Cyprus wants to steal all of Turkey's rights in its own EEZ and use it for themselves

So in order to buy some shitty planes that will have its own weapons eventually embargoed, Turkey will effectively sell its own land, sea rights, and people
Such great relations with great allies, mate
 
T

TR_123456

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Posted on another aviation forum:



Worth thinking about.

It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.
''Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.''

The Aegean Sea is not even an issue when Athens and all the airfields are within range of our missiles(from land and sea).
If necessary we can wait for the KAAN,no problem.
 

uçuyorum

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''Turkish Air Force is left with the F-16 as its only fighter type, and is technically outclassed over the Aegean sea.''

The Aegean Sea is not even an issue when Athens and all the airfields are within range of our missiles(from land and sea).
If necessary we can wait for the KAAN,no problem.
Everyone around us is getting rafale, eurofighter, f15 or f35 with aesa radars. We are the only ones left with only F16 and old doppler radars.
Greece, Egypt, Uae, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel.

Heck romania is getting F35
 

Lool

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Everyone around us is getting rafale, eurofighter, f15 or f35 with aesa radars. We are the only ones left with only F16 and old doppler radars.
Greece, Egypt, Uae, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel
Let me share an oldie but a goodie

Inf news: 'When you buy an F-35, you do not own the plane. The plane becomes your owner
The USA sends a password to the countries purchasing F-35s before each use via the LINK-16 data sharing system in order to operate the aircraft and put it into combat mode (war mode) if necessary.
The British pilot cannot log in to the plane and cannot start it. It is claimed that the South Korean pilots who bought 40 F-35s are "tired" of this situation.


Buying the most advanced weapons doesnt mean that your army is good; that is how third rate armies thinks like Saudi Arabia, Greece, UAE, and Egypt thinks

To be effective you need to own the weapons, such weapons need to be cost-effective and effecient and its users must be proficient in it
Fighter jets that need a password from the US for every flight, a training manual from the US, and cost 10,000 dollars per hour of flight are factors of how to destrot your army in record time and not the opposite
 

IC3M@N FX

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Posted on another aviation forum:



Worth thinking about.

It would be an idea to try to maintain relations with the US to ensure that F110 engine supply for KAAN is not blocked. If that happened, the consequences would be bad.
You should.... avoid. . At least in the defense sector, you should give them a wide berth. It's fine the way it is, the F-16 Block 70 including the upgrade kits will be the last planes from the US.
If we don't get them, we shouldn't waste any more energy trying to convince them, just convert the remaining F-16 Block 40/50s into Özgur II, the equivalent of the Block 70 Viper.

The delivery of the F-110 engines only came about because General Electric is a minority shareholder in TEI and is therefore forced to fulfill contracts that have already been concluded.
If the US government had torpedoed the deal, the Russians or Chinese would have agreed to supply the engines together with a technology transfer as in the S-400 deal.
Both have asked to help Turkey with the engines if their wonderful allies refuse.
That would have been the final straw for Turkey's NATO membership, which would then only be on paper and worth no more than a scrap of paper from Turkey's point of view. It would still be a NATO member, but would not provide any assistance to the wrong allies.
 

Spitfire9

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You should.... avoid. . At least in the defense sector, you should give them a wide berth. It's fine the way it is, the F-16 Block 70 including the upgrade kits will be the last planes from the US.
If we don't get them, we shouldn't waste any more energy trying to convince them, just convert the remaining F-16 Block 40/50s into Özgur II, the equivalent of the Block 70 Viper.

The delivery of the F-110 engines only came about because General Electric is a minority shareholder in TEI and is therefore forced to fulfill contracts that have already been concluded.
If the US government had torpedoed the deal, the Russians or Chinese would have agreed to supply the engines together with a technology transfer as in the S-400 deal.
Both have asked to help Turkey with the engines if their wonderful allies refuse.
That would have been the final straw for Turkey's NATO membership, which would then only be on paper and worth no more than a scrap of paper from Turkey's point of view. It would still be a NATO member, but would not provide any assistance to the wrong allies.
I have not followed closely but I thought the last barriers to the F-16 deal had been removed and a contract had been signed.

If Russia or China would be happy to help with engines, that is good. What is not so good is that Russian engines are not as good as US, French and British engines and Chinese engines even less. I imagine that Russia would welcome making money out of Turkiye. Who else is interested in Russian help with engines or in buying Russian engines to power their own designs?

Out of curiosity, why does Turkiye want to stay in NATO? Who would attack Turkiye so that it needed to call on help from its NATO allies?

PS Why buy US upgrade kits if you have your own?
 
T

TR_123456

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Out of curiosity, why does Turkiye want to stay in NATO? Who would attack Turkiye so that it needed to call on help from its NATO allies?
We stay in NATO because we want to,its beneficial to our foreign policy,soft/hard power,image etc.
In a war,none of the NATO members would come to our help,we know that already and we wouldnt need their help but just to show the world they wouldnt come when we would ask for their help.
A good example was Syria.

PS Why buy US upgrade kits if you have your own?
Again,political reasons.
If they say no we show their true faces to those still thinking that the Western countries are our true allies.
Did you really think we are going to buy military hardware worth $23 billion from the US?
 

Lool

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I have not followed closely but I thought the last barriers to the F-16 deal had been removed and a contract had been signed.

If Russia or China would be happy to help with engines, that is good. What is not so good is that Russian engines are not as good as US, French and British engines and Chinese engines even less. I imagine that Russia would welcome making money out of Turkiye. Who else is interested in Russian help with engines or in buying Russian engines to power their own designs?

Out of curiosity, why does Turkiye want to stay in NATO? Who would attack Turkiye so that it needed to call on help from its NATO allies?

PS Why buy US upgrade kits if you have your own?
Even if Russia and China did offer such a deal, Turkey wont take it over the fear of sanctions; I assure you of that

As to why Turkey stays in NATO, there are a couple of factors I can think of
1- NATO is comprised of an alliance of some of the most advanced nations on Earth
2- NATO structural heirarchy is stable as opposed to alliances like the Russian/Iranian/Chinese axis
3- Geographically, Turkey is more closely linked to EU and NATO countries
4- Turkey's economy is nearly almost linked with NATO members compared to those of Russia or China
5- Turkey's military is closely linked to NATO's military standards and therefore shifting to another school/axis may cause disruptions within Turkish/Western style of military command
6- NATO as an alliance is the most advanced alliance in terms of both military and civilian technology; in addition to being one of the most effecient
7- NATO has the US which is still the supreme nation on Earth (although going downhill)
8- If Turkey left NATO, then NATO will arm Turkey's enemies like Greece and PKK even more heavily while nations on the other end of the earth like China wont even bother to help Turkey
9- EU is the largest single market and Turkey's largest export market

In other words, while NATO alliance is comprised of a bunch of a**holes, they are still quite beneficial to Turkey from an economic, political, and military point of view; although that importance has been on a decline, it is still important to date nonetheless
 
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Spitfire9

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Fq the west mate

Germany demanded that for the Eurofighter deal to pass, Turkey must cancel any East Med drilling or seismic activities
US and Sweden are prime PKK supporters; the same PKK that killed innocent Turks for the last 30+ years and still continue to do so and dream of dividing the Turkish state
Greece and Cyprus wants to steal all of Turkey's rights in its own EEZ and use it for themselves

So in order to buy some shitty planes that will have its own weapons eventually embargoed, Turkey will effectively sell its own land, sea rights, and people
Such great relations with great allies, mate
I was suggesting that Turkiye act to safeguard in its own interests by ensuring access to an engine for KAAN until an indigenous one is available.

Since it is unlikely that any country will attack Turkiye in the near future, perhaps it would not matter greatly if F110 for KAAN were blocked and Turkiye's air force were below strength until KAAN turned up in the air force with the 35kN locally produced engine. KAAN powered by a Turkish engine could be coming off the assembly line in another 10 years. That would give the Turkish aviation industry sufficient time to fully develop the aircraft's systems before the aircraft went into production.

The opportunity to buy shitty planes - somewhat better than the planes you are buying from the US - has gone. The genius diplomacy of your president during his visit to Germany more or less eliminated that possibility. You are welcome to fly your shittier planes as your best fighters until KAAN arrives on the scene - with or without F110 engines.
 
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IC3M@N FX

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I was suggesting that Turkiye act to safeguard in its own interests by ensuring access to an engine for KAAN until an indigenous one is available.

Since it is unlikely that any country will attack Turkiye in the near future, perhaps it would not matter greatly if F110 for KAAN were blocked and Turkiye's air force were below strength until KAAN turned up in the air force with the 35kN locally produced engine. KAAN powered by a Turkish engine could be coming off the assembly line in another 10 years. That would give the Turkish aviation industry sufficient time to fully develop the aircraft's systems before the aircraft went into production.

The opportunity to buy shitty planes - somewhat better than the planes you are buying from the US - has gone. The genius diplomacy of your president during his visit to Germany more or less eliminated that possibility. You are welcome to fly your shittier planes as your best fighters until KAAN arrives on the scene - with or without F110 engines.
It is not about that but about general sanctions and embargoes; the whole world knows in secret that these embargoes and sanctions have a different purpose. On the outside, this is sold as a lack of democracy and human rights in Turkey as a universal justification. The facts are simply different - you don't sell F-16s, F-15s, Eurofighters and Rafaele to countries like Saudi Arabia, India, Qatar and Israel, even though these countries are constantly whistling and spitting on human rights, press freedom and so on.
Conversely, this shows that only these embargoes have a strategic purpose, Turkey should not be self-sufficient and conduct its own sovereign policy.
They don't want to divide up the cake any further.
In the view of some European countries, Turkey is a rival and they are not supported, even if Turkey were to behave correctly. Geographically, Turkey has access to all hubs in this case Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. This alone makes it indispensable for military strikes as it acts geographically like an aircraft carrier.

You can also see the resistance, Turkey has gained a foothold in North and Central Africa through soft power and the victims were Europe and France, which lost power and influence there.
 
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If the US government had torpedoed the deal, the Russians or Chinese would have agreed to supply the engines together with a technology transfer as in the S-400 deal.

Curious to know what we gained in that S400 deal ? What kind of technology did the Russians transfer to us ?
 

IC3M@N FX

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Curious to know what we gained in that S400 deal ? What kind of technology did the Russians transfer to us ?
It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.
It's not about whether we copied part x or y to make system A work, but how things got to know how these systems actually work hardware & software technically in a deeper sense.
Air defense systems of this type are generally extremely complex systems and it takes at least 15-20 years to develop systems that actually work, sometimes much longer.
Look at how fast we have progressed Siper Block 1 has 100+ km range and Siper Block 2 which is coming out soon 150+ km range that is astromic and Turkey has not developed any systems of this type before as precursor/predecessor except the Hisar series which has also undergone updates.

Don't you find that strange? You buy the S-400 system but it is more or less inactive in the warehouse.
They weren't interested in the system itself as a defensive weapon, but in knowing how it works and what requirements have to be met for it to work in both hardware and software. The leap that Turkey has made in air defense systems of different classes in the last 10 years is gigantic and that with its own Link 16 equilalent and sensor fusion.
 
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Afif

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It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.

I don't SIPER program directly or indirectly has anything remotely to do with SA-21 Growler deal.
 

I_Love_F16

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It's just a rumor or a theory, but it is assumed that the Siper air defense system benefited exorbitantly from this.
It's not about whether we copied part x or y to make system A work, but how things got to know how these systems actually work hardware & software technically in a deeper sense.
Air defense systems of this type are generally extremely complex systems and it takes at least 15-20 years to develop systems that actually work, sometimes much longer.
Look at how fast we have progressed Siper Block 1 has 100+ km range and Siper Block 2 which is coming out soon 150+ km range that is astromic and Turkey has not developed any systems of this type before as precursor/predecessor except the Hisar series which has also undergone updates.

Don't you find that strange? You buy the S-400 system but it is more or less inactive in the warehouse.
They weren't interested in the system itself as a defensive weapon, but in knowing how it works and what requirements have to be met for it to work in both hardware and software. The leap that Turkey has made in air defense systems of different classes in the last 10 years is gigantic and that with its own Link 16 equilalent and sensor fusion.

Well, Hisar A and O development began around 2007 if I'm not mistaken. That left plenty of time for Roketsan to gain some experience and be able to develop something like Siper. Personnally, I don't think that we gained something from the S-400. Just like the Akkuyu Nuclear power plant.
 

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"IT WILL BE A JOINT IRAQ-TURKEY TRAINING CAMP"

Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan:

"After our meetings with my friend Fuat Bey, we held our high-level security meeting."

"We have very valuable participants from Iraq. Our Iraqi Minister of National Defense, President of the Hashd al-Shaabi Commission, and the Minister of Interior of the Regional Administration were our guests. In addition, our Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler, our MIT President İbrahim Kalın, and our Deputy Minister of Interior Münür Karaloğlu held our high-level security meeting with us."

"We expressed our satisfaction with the Iraqi side's decision to close three political parties affiliated with the PKK in accordance with the banned organization decision."

"In addition, we have intensified our discussions on the draft memorandum of understanding on military, security, cooperation and combating terrorism, which we have been negotiating for a while. I would like to announce a historic development at this time. The memorandum of understanding in question was just signed by our Defense Ministers. We believe that we will take our cooperation to the next level with the skill of the joint coordination and training centers foreseen in this agreement."

"We wish to advance the understanding we are developing with Iraq on combating terrorism with concrete steps on the field. We will continue our contacts in this direction without interruption."

According to the signed memorandum of understanding; a Joint Security Coordination Center will be established in Baghdad and a Joint Training and Cooperation Center in Bashiqa between Turkey and Iraq for combating terrorism.

Minister Fuad Hussein stated that "Bashiqa is being transformed into a joint Iraq-Turkey training camp. Responsibility for the base area will be with the Iraqi Army."
 
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