India India - Pakistan Relations

[Zapper]

Hopefully we will have peace with Pak and convert LoC to IB and end this nonsense once and for all.

Not until we take back GB

 

[suryakiran]

Pakistan wants Kashmir while India will do whatever necessary to keep it.

Change in Indian outlook too. India now wants Gilgit Baltistan. Its no longer about converting the LoC to IB. That ship has sailed.

 

[Jackdaws]

Pak released new video of Abhinandan, captured after he entered Pak controlled airspace in PoK chasing after Pakistani aircraft. This was the Pak response to the Indian airstrike in Pak province of KPK in Balakot. The video lacks continuity and is edited.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1365538825066397698

 

[Nilgiri]

Gen S.A Hasnain is always a pleasure to listen to/read.

Here he gives summary and a few extra details (on the deep state etc) on what we have talked about a bunch on this forum at much more length.

Also gives some apt predictions and conclusions at the end too.

@VCheng @Paro @Jackdaws @crixus @Zapper et al.

 

[VCheng]

Gen S.A Hasnain is always a pleasure to listen to/read.

Here he gives summary and a few extra details (on the deep state etc) on what we have talked about a bunch on this forum at much more length.

Also gives some apt predictions and conclusions at the end too.

@VCheng @Paro @Jackdaws @crixus @Zapper et al.

Let me hazard a guess: All the hoarse crying wolf over "Kushmeer the nukklar flashpint" will not be realized?

 

[Paro]

​

Dr N.C. Asthana
The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) committed some fundamental mistakes in its Kashmir operation of supporting, equipping and instigating an insurgency even as it came tantalisingly close to creating a ‘climate of collapse’. It sought to capitalise on the discontent that had been brewing since long.
Discontent has been simmering in Kashmir since decades, and it has manifested in various forms. The ISI sought to exploit the situation by introducing an ‘armed component’ to it in a classic example of ‘export of insurgency’.
By 1989, sporadic violence had started taking the shape of an insurgent movement with increasingly greater involvement of the people. January 26 and August 15 were observed as ‘black days’ for the first time. The state quickly slipped into an ‘era of strikes’ by various sections of the society.
In the first week of February 1990, Pakistan gave the call for a ‘solidarity week’ as a token of moral support. By 1990, subversion had crept into the state administration also. From July, the state government employees struck work on three occasions in support of calls given by the militants. The third strike was in protest over dismissal of five employees for hobnobbing with the militants, and it lasted for 72 days. In the end, the government buckled!
On 5 February 1991, the Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif gave the call for a strike and it evoked a very good response in the Valley. In 1992, a bomb was planted in the Police Headquarters (PHQ) itself. That was an example of the subversion in the ranks of the police, as a bomb in the PHQ could not have been planted without inside help. A landmine attack on the route of the then advisor to the governor was also not possible without information regarding his movement having been leaked from the police.
What Pakistan had not been able to do in Operation Gulmarg (1947), and in Operation Gibraltar (1965) from outside, they hoped to accomplish this time from within. One could feel the ‘climate of collapse’ everywhere.

Foreign envoys on a government organised visit to Kashmir
How the ISI armed the insurgency?
Weaponry for terrorists came from, as John K. Cooley (in his Unholy Wars: Afghanistan, America and International Terrorism) and Lawrence Lifschultz of The Guardian reveal, the pilferage from the arms supplied on an unprecedented scale by the CIA in its covert Operation Cyclone during the Mujahideen War (1980-89) for which the ISI was the conduit. In monetary terms, it was not a costly operation. All that the ISI was obliged to spend in cash was for the porters and guides in that pre-GPS era for infiltrating the terrorists.
Training was imparted to terrorists in makeshift camps and it was highly perfunctory. The Daura-e-Aam etc., were essentially indoctrination sessions. To this date, in most of the terrorist attacks, they have displayed very poor tactics and seemed eager only to achieve ‘martyrdom’ at the earliest.




How the ‘insurrectional focus’ faded over time
Pakistan had presumed that their support to insurgency would inflict the classical ‘death by thousand cuts’. Yes, they did inflict the thousand cuts, but India being a large country was able to sustain the losses.
The ISI had thought that the insurrectional focus would trigger a chain reaction leading to the collapse of the regime. That was not to be. They underestimated India’s moment of inertia, to use a term from physics.
They also did not understand that India is essentially a very inert society. We do get excited; but our interest span is very short. However huge a tragedy be, we forget it in a few days and revert to our Bollywood songs and cricket routine.
There was an intrinsic disadvantage for the ISI in Kashmir being on one fringe of India. Most people in the mainland cannot relate to it and incidents there do not have any impact on the current of life elsewhere in the country. Thus, no real pressure was built on the government by the public and the media, as there was no outrage in the rest of the country. As a result, the nation could easily sustain all those casualties of the security forces, and the killings by the terrorists. The ISI could not foresee that an inert nation could absorb that impact without any significant ripples being generated.
Let us be honest—it was not due to any intrinsic merit in our approach to counterinsurgency that we just pulled through; it was their weaknesses.

How the people failed the ISI?
The ISI failed to realise that while it was rather easy to give sanctuary to terrorist leaders on its soil, train, equip and infiltrate terrorists, it was difficult to prepare the people psychologically for a long drawn out struggle.
The ISI failed to understand one more thing. It is that no society can maintain a given tempo of agitation for an indefinite length of time. Things tend to subside—time deflates any balloon. In 1942, for example, we had a galaxy of leaders who could be called charismatic. Yet the Quit India movement could never fire up the Indians en masse and the movement effectively fizzled out by March 1943.
All those Kashmiris who had thought that the end of the regime was near gradually lost heart. They wanted a quick and cheap victory. When that proved elusive, the fence sitters switched sides.
Moreover, the physical and mental sufferings imposed upon them by the grinding between the insurgent activities and counterinsurgency operations, gradually started taking their toll on their nerves.
In a way, the intrinsic weaknesses of the insurgents and their supporters amongst the public made for what is known as negative feedback in electronics. The opportunist elements amongst the people lost heart because the insurgents could not bring about a Gotterdammerung in a short span of time; the insurgents lost heart because sans the support of the public frenzy behind them, they were reduced to ordinary criminals, liable to dealt with a heavy hand.

How insurgency slipped into the terrorism phase?
Thenceforth, the level of subversion began to fall and the movement, in terms of John McCuen’s description of the four phases of insurgency, slipped into the phase of terrorism from that of an insurgency.
The hopes of a military success to insurgency were effectively dashed by 1996 when elections, with whatsoever low turnout, could be held. In the terrorism phase, which continues even now to some extent, lives were lost; property was destroyed; personnel of the security forces were killed; but it remained a manageable problem. There was no danger of a collapse.
The ISI sought to revive the insurrectional focus again in 2008 taking advantage of the Amarnath Land Transfer Controversy. Then the notorious Shopian incident took place in May 2009. Large-scale riots continued throughout 2009-10. However, some firm handling quelled the riots so effectively that even the hanging of Afzal Guru in 2013 could not trigger riots. Their efforts on international forums to castigate India for alleged human rights violations have also not succeeded.

Other intrinsic handicaps of the ISI
The ISI suffered from an intrinsic handicap in its Kashmir operation. At any stage, they could not afford to provoke India beyond a point. That is why they never gave the terrorists Stinger missile, any other Man Portable Air Defence System (MANPADS) or even 81mm mortars. They had them in sufficient numbers. Rather, they bought them back.
They knew it well that if they shot down any military or civilian aircraft or attacked an army camp from a standoff distance, the government of India would regard it as unacceptable provocation and would launch a war, and that could prove costly for them. That limited the overall military potential of the insurgency severely, limiting to essentially just AK rifles.
Inexplicably, the ISI could never teach the insurgents to make effective use of IEDs and sabotage. The Taliban inflict more than 50 per cent of their casualties by IEDs. Even the home-grown Naxals use IEDs in a very effective manner. There are many Bailey Bridges in Kashmir as very important communication links. They are easy targets for sabotage. Yet, in so many years, the terrorists could not attack any bridge.

Where do Pakistan and ISI stand now?
Their next opportunity of imparting the insurrectional focus came in 2016 following the killing of Burhan Wani. However, perhaps under the pressure of Jaish-e-Muhammad, they started focusing on rather spectacular terrorist attacks like those at the Pathankot airbase, Uri army camp, and Pulwama etc. These attacks resulted in the retaliatory surgical strikes. Hence, they could not be repeated. Terrorism could still be maintained at some level, but they lost sting.
Then they are also hemmed in by the threat of being blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Now, Pakistan knows it well that given the inherent ‘fog of war’, it is not advisable to blunder into a war in a predictable fashion—that is, Pakistan prompts a terrorist attack, India retaliates, then Pakistan responds and so on. In such a situation of a gradual build-up leading to war, the advantage lies with the bigger military, that is, India. If they have to fare better, the war must take place in an unpredictable manner.
Presently, the ISI has been reduced to fighting sporadic battles even as the ‘war for Kashmir’ has been irretrievably lost.
(The writer is a retired IPS officer. He has been DGP Kerala and ADG CRPF and BSF. He is also author of 48 books military science, defence, strategy and internal security)

The ISI may have lost the plot in its war for Kashmir

The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) committed some fundamental mistakes in its Kashmir operation of supporting, equipping and instigating an insurgency even as it came tantalisingly close to creating a ‘climate of collapse’

forceindia.net

@Nilgiri @Jackdaws @Zapper @Milspec @Raptor

 

[Nilgiri]

The role of (govenors) G.C Saxena and especially K.V Krishna Rao, cannot be understated.

They inherited a grave situation, and tried their best to both ramp up security force presence but balance the importance of earning (often torturously slow) local trust and local policing...at very crucial times when the insurgency was on the ascendancy. Substantial amount of security presence inevitably went too heavy handed....till Vajpayee administration was able to provide harder edge in the border infilitration points by strongly countering the Pak Army there (esp after Kargil provided impetus for it)...and thus taking pressure off local Kashmiri lives within the state compared to before.

Things might have gone even more differently (in better way for India) if Krishna Rao stayed in his tenure when appointed in 1989....instead of being replaced by jagmohan (for brief stint) later...that saw a number of bad policies and opportunities missed to nip things in the bud more.

In the police itself, B.S Bedi comes to mind....he took some significant bold steps to flush out compromised cops...and a whole outfit of cops later took him and other cops hostage at their own police station iirc....it needed an army operation and the rebel-cops eventually surrendered.

Things like this happened quite frequently across each year in early 90s....India simply was caught unprepared for a number of years in late 80s and early 90s....till situation stabilised and Pakistan's own desperation became more clear to Kashmiri populace, Indian populace and world at large.

Even recently the issue lingers with local cops (often caught between rock and a hard place in that both lot of locals have mistrust in them, and they are not trusted by centre govt much either lot of time)....yet they persevere in lot of cases and pay for it with their lives:

Tortured and killed: Kashmir's vulnerable policemen

Mohammad Ashraf Dar was gunned down in his home for being a policeman in Indian-administered Kashmir.

www.bbc.com

But this used to be way more frequent thing (not even reported much because of the far larger massacres happening) in early 90s.

We now take police chiefs like S.P Vaid more for granted even...he has done very good job in his tenure, but it was long sustained costly effort to get to even here....and road remains a long one.

The effects of repeal of Article 370 is felt by local police in most negative way lately I feel. This decade needs specific leadership in all levels of security administration...hopefully Kashmir does not remain a UT...it needs to be a state.

 

[Jackdaws]

At the end of the day ISI / Pakistan were overconfident - they thought they were somehow responsible for the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan and that India would also fold under the same low-cost Mujahideen tactics. Fairly stupid considering -

1. The Americans only used the Pak forces as cheap labour in Afghanistan

2. The Soviet soldier was aware that he was in a foreign land. For the Indian soldier it was about defending his own land.

 

[ekemenirtu]

Does it mean that there is no pressing need for any Indian Army presence in Kashmir anymore for keeping most of the unwilling Kashmiris glued to the artificially constructed Republic of India?

If so, that would be welcome news in many regions of the world. The oppressed and subjugated peoples of Kashmir can finally breathe free and lead their lives according to their wishes, fulfil their national or higher aspirations.

The neighbouring countries in SAARC can breathe free as the region will be less militarized and there may be less political acrimony among countries.

The citizens of the two involved countries may also breathe free since they would have no longer many valid reasons for holding grudges or potentially fighting an existential war that can see their family members, children or grandchildren charred or eviscerated.

Moreover, given the anemic state of Indian defense industrial complex, there is no risk of a war-profiteering defense industrial complex perpetuating occupation or war as can be found in the USA, for example.

All in all, if it is indeed true that the Indian Army will withdraw entirely from Kashmir given the comprehensive failure of ISI, I believe such a retreat will be seen positively across all quarters.

 

[Paro]

I dont get why people assume Indian army is policing Kashmir. There is something called as paramilitary under the home ministry. Indian army don't even come close to 200k.

 

[Jackdaws]

Does it mean that there is no pressing need for any Indian Army presence in Kashmir anymore for keeping most of the unwilling Kashmiris glued to the artificially constructed Republic of India?

If so, that would be welcome news in many regions of the world. The oppressed and subjugated peoples of Kashmir can finally breathe free and lead their lives according to their wishes, fulfil their national or higher aspirations.

The neighbouring countries in SAARC can breathe free as the region will be less militarized and there may be less political acrimony among countries.

The citizens of the two involved countries may also breathe free since they would have no longer many valid reasons for holding grudges or potentially fighting an existential war that can see their family members, children or grandchildren charred or eviscerated.

Moreover, given the anemic state of Indian defense industrial complex, there is no risk of a war-profiteering defense industrial complex perpetuating occupation or war as can be found in the USA, for example.

All in all, if it is indeed true that the Indian Army will withdraw entirely from Kashmir given the comprehensive failure of ISI, I believe such a retreat will be seen positively across all quarters.

The Indian Army and paramilitary forces are in India and obviously need to secure its borders. The ISI and Pakistani policies have repeatedly failed - doesn't mean they won't try again. The hiding that Pakistan received in 1965 didn't stop it from trying to grab Siachen which it couldn't in 1984 or occupying the Kargil heights in 1999 where it received another hiding.

They might try again - probably with the same result.

 

[Raptor]

Anyone who thinks IA leaving kashmir would solve the border problem is a complete idiot.
It would make it worse with Pakistan would occupy the remaining kashmir and even send more militants to further India and change the demography of other states.
Kashmir earlier was never a problem until Pakistan started sending militants and radicalizing the population.
The kashmir locals in 1965 helped the IA to capture SSG personnels and pak armymen.

 

[suryakiran]

Does it mean that there is no pressing need for any Indian Army presence in Kashmir anymore for keeping most of the unwilling Kashmiris glued to the artificially constructed Republic of India?

If so, that would be welcome news in many regions of the world. The oppressed and subjugated peoples of Kashmir can finally breathe free and lead their lives according to their wishes, fulfil their national or higher aspirations.

The neighbouring countries in SAARC can breathe free as the region will be less militarized and there may be less political acrimony among countries.

The citizens of the two involved countries may also breathe free since they would have no longer many valid reasons for holding grudges or potentially fighting an existential war that can see their family members, children or grandchildren charred or eviscerated.

Moreover, given the anemic state of Indian defense industrial complex, there is no risk of a war-profiteering defense industrial complex perpetuating occupation or war as can be found in the USA, for example.

All in all, if it is indeed true that the Indian Army will withdraw entirely from Kashmir given the comprehensive failure of ISI, I believe such a retreat will be seen positively across all quarters.

For understanding what I will write will require removal of prejudiced glasses.

a. Abolishment of Art 370
b. Breaking up the erstwhile state of J&K into Union Territories.
c. Increase in rapid infrastructure buildup across the Indo- China border.

These are things which a Pakistani sees and goes red. What you do not see, is a notification which got passed. And this is the law which should scare the hell out of the Pakistani think-tank brigade.

‘Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir Re-organisation (Adaptation of Central Laws) Third Order, 2020’

This is the land reforms notification of the GoI applicable to both Union Territories. What exactly do you think is going to happen? Let me try and explain it further.

a. Increase in land purchase by Kashmiri Pandits who left Kashmir during the insurgency.
b. Increase in land purchase by spouses who can now purchase land in Kashmir.
c. Increase in land purchase by companies
d. Increase in land purchase and inward movement of civilians who are non Kashmiri over a period of time.

What exactly do you think, we are doing? Over the next 10-15 years, you will see a demographic change in the Valley. While Pakistanis will be busy saving their own country from the debacle and failure of their state due to the constant interference of the Pakistani Army, we will strengthen our position in the Valley.

What do you think will happen next?

 

[ekemenirtu]

The Indian Army and paramilitary forces are in India and obviously need to secure its borders. The ISI and Pakistani policies have repeatedly failed - doesn't mean they won't try again. The hiding that Pakistan received in 1965 didn't stop it from trying to grab Siachen which it couldn't in 1984 or occupying the Kargil heights in 1999 where it received another hiding.

They might try again - probably with the same result.

If the Indian Army or paramilitary forces are in India alone, and not anywhere else where the population deeply resents their presence, their occupation or treatment of the locals, there should not be any unusually high level of Indian occupation army presence in the regions of Kashmir or North Eastern regions surrounding Bangladesh.

In 1965, Pakistan apprently shot down more Indian aircrafts than the number of PAF aircrafts that were shot down.

Since Pakistan's ISI has already lost, and also lost the plot, Indians should no reason to be concerned. Their military presence in Kashmir can be reduced and that will probably, in all likelihoods, lead to better relations with neighbours and other countries, too.

The occupied peoples of Kashmir and elsewhere too can breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[ekemenirtu]

For understanding what I will write will require removal of prejudiced glasses.

a. Abolishment of Art 370
b. Breaking up the erstwhile state of J&K into Union Territories.
c. Increase in rapid infrastructure buildup across the Indo- China border.

These are things which a Pakistani sees and goes red. What you do not see, is a notification which got passed. And this is the law which should scare the hell out of the Pakistani think-tank brigade.

‘Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir Re-organisation (Adaptation of Central Laws) Third Order, 2020’

This is the land reforms notification of the GoI applicable to both Union Territories. What exactly do you think is going to happen? Let me try and explain it further.

a. Increase in land purchase by Kashmiri Pandits who left Kashmir during the insurgency.
b. Increase in land purchase by spouses who can now purchase land in Kashmir.
c. Increase in land purchase by companies
d. Increase in land purchase and inward movement of civilians who are non Kashmiri over a period of time.

What exactly do you think, we are doing? Over the next 10-15 years, you will see a demographic change in the Valley. While Pakistanis will be busy saving their own country from the debacle and failure of their state due to the constant interference of the Pakistani Army, we will strengthen our position in the Valley.

What do you think will happen next?

I do not have much clue on these matters (such as "Kashmiri Pandits") or what they involve. These matters had better be dealt with by Pakistani members such as @Kaptaan @Saiyan0321 @Waz and others.

The future is uncertain. We will have to see if your pompous boasts of Indian success of demographic engineering in Kashmir bear fruit in the future and whether Pakistan will be a failure. Let time be the best judge, so to speak.

 

[Jackdaws]

If the Indian Army or paramilitary forces are in India alone, and not anywhere else where the population deeply resents their presence, their occupation or treatment of the locals, there should not be any unusually high level of Indian occupation army presence in the regions of Kashmir or North Eastern regions surrounding Bangladesh.

In 1965, Pakistan apprently shot down more Indian aircrafts than the number of PAF aircrafts that were shot down.

Since Pakistan's ISI has already lost, and also lost the plot, Indians should no reason to be concerned. Their military presence in Kashmir can be reduced and that will probably, in all likelihoods, lead to better relations with neighbours and other countries, too.

The occupied peoples of Kashmir and elsewhere too can breathe a sigh of relief.

It's possible the Pakistanis shot down more aircraft that Indians did - it needs to be factored in that India flew a lot more sorties. It's like saying the Allies lost more soldiers than the Germans at Normandy. That has to do with the fact that toward the end of the war, Germans did not have as many soldiers.

No army known as the Indian Occupation Army exists. The Indian Army is only present in various parts of India were there is an external threat perception. India has reasonably good relations with democracies in its vicinity. Regimes known for genocide and terrorism can't be trusted.

 

[ekemenirtu]

It's possible the Pakistanis shot down more aircraft that Indians did - it needs to be factored in that India flew a lot more sorties. It's like saying the Allies lost more soldiers than the Germans at Normandy. That has to do with the fact that toward the end of the war, Germans did not have as many soldiers.

No army known as the Indian Occupation Army exists. The Indian Army is only present in various parts of India were there is an external threat perception. India has reasonably good relations with democracies in its vicinity. Communist regimes and banana republics known for genocide and terrorism can't be trusted.

On the topic of Germans in World War II, their excellence in warfare is generally widely acknowledge by all of their enemies alike. It is also widely acknowledged that the Germans killed and wounded more of their enemies than their enemies killed or wounded theirs.

The Indian Occupation Army, expectedly, does not refer to it by that name. Most Kashmiris, however, do not agree. If you argue that the Indian Army only exists whereever their neighbours (such as China, Pakistan) may pose a threat, then this may not explain the existence of the Southern Air Command of the IAF, or the Eastern Naval Command of the IN, or perhaps the Southern Command of IA.

True enough, Hindutva regimes often renowned for Saffron terrorism can not be trusted. In that case, the bulk of Indian Military and Paramilitary forces should be focused inwards.

Couple that with a tendency to invade and annex erstwhile independent countries or states such as Hyderabad, Goa, Sikkim, Junagadh or attempts to do so in Kashmir, and the problem is only compounded further.

 

[Jackdaws]

On the topic of Germans in World War II, their excellence in warfare is generally widely acknowledge by all of their enemies alike. It is also widely acknowledged that the Germans killed and wounded more of their enemies than their enemies killed or wounded theirs.

The Indian Occupation Army, expectedly, does not refer to it by that name. Most Kashmiris, however, do not agree. If you argue that the Indian Army only exists whereever their neighbours (such as China, Pakistan) may pose a threat, then this may not explain the existence of the Southern Air Command of the IAF, or the Eastern Naval Command of the IN, or perhaps the Southern Command of IA.

True enough, Hindutva regimes often renowned for Saffron terrorism can not be trusted. In that case, the bulk of Indian Military and Paramilitary forces should be focused inwards.

Couple that with a tendency to invade and annex erstwhile independent countries or states such as Hyderabad, Goa, Sikkim, Junagadh or attempts to do so in Kashmir, and the problem is only compounded further.

Of course the Germans were an excellent fighting force. They occupied all of Western continental Europe. The comparison to Pakistan which has lost all the wars it has ever fought in its history can be seen as flattering. I get your point.

Perhaps you have been reading the wrong sources if you are defending colonialism in Goa. Maybe the Pakistani sources you are referring to liked European colonialism as they enjoyed being ruled. But that's not the case in India or indeed the rest of the post colonial world.

The country which has a record of committing terrorism, finds itself in FATF grey list, has committed genocide in East Pakistan and Balochistan (mod: in poster opinion) and which gave refuge to Osama Bin Laden is Pakistan. That's the country I was referring to when I mentioned "regimes known for genocide and terrorism can't be trusted." Just so there is no confusion

 

[Nilgiri]

People that go on racist attacks are not welcome to return to this thread or this subforum (if this behaviour is not changed, given the indulgence in it thus far).

Thread banned issued. Admin scrutiny will follow given repeated behaviour.

 

[Nilgiri]

Also posters should not use "banana republic" and other such insinuations for entire countries (rather than sticking specifically to "regime" etc for any criminal action perpetrated by it), as this is against forum rules.

Warning points issued.

Referring to countries as "artificial" (subjective and can be construed as an attack) is also given a soft warning for now.

This forum will not be turned into a cesspit like other ones....members are advised to not bait and to remember the rules when handling entire countries.