India Air-Force Indian Air Force General Archive

Nilgiri · Nov 13, 2023

Marlii said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1722883746058403989

That will put the Embraer C-390 out of contention...and heavily favour the Kawasaki C-2.

Knowledgeseeker · Nov 16, 2023

Any information regarding the journey of acquiring 110 fighter jets for 15 billion USD?

@Nilgiri

Afif · Nov 16, 2023

Knowledgeseeker said:
Any information regarding the journey of acquiring 110 fighter jets for 15 billion USD?

@Nilgiri

You will know it when it happen. It is like BD's MRCA program.

Knowledgeseeker · Nov 16, 2023

Afif said:
You will know it when it happen. It is like BD's MRCA program.

I was thinking more about offers that they have received, and which requirements the Indian air force has set for the participating companies.

Nilgiri · Nov 16, 2023

Knowledgeseeker said:
Any information regarding the journey of acquiring 110 fighter jets for 15 billion USD?

@Nilgiri

As far as I understand, it is very likely to be the Rafale given the momentum here of the acquisitions so far, platform training and experience accumulated (within IAF already and IN to come), ecosystem developed and greater strategic partnership robustness with France.

Budgeting finance have to be completed and secured though (given economic and fiscal pressure in general and funding pressures/constraints within defence domain specifically too).

Another matter is dassault seeking to increase its stake in the DRAL JV (with reliance at its nagpur facility, which is tasked with rafale components and business jets so far) from 49% to 100%....and role this would then play in rafale assembly line here (that would need to take shape given the long term defence infra India forsees and requires).

These matters likely will get more clarity after the 2024 elections in India.

Nilgiri · Nov 16, 2023

Afif said:
You will know it when it happen. It is like BD's MRCA program.

BD MRCA is in far worse shape given the basic fiscal pressures and constraints. BD govt has expended ~ 30 billion USD in a short manner of time to defend the Taka in the current range setting....more than half its reserve apex around ~2019.

Then there is the election season and post-election setting to then factor in for BD which will have their unique intensity along with however the forex and fiscal situations shape up later.

BD govt has also signalled its commitment to maintain Taka around 110 to USD so unless inflows really change (till election and then 2024 post election), that will put further pressure on current forex level.

This explains a large degree of the reluctance to commit to things in the years prior too. This inner vulnerability would have been known by some close enough to BAL leadership....to add to other factors that keep coming up as to the "why" acquiring one squadron of decent fighter aircraft took this long.

Afif · Nov 16, 2023

Nilgiri said:
BD MRCA is in far worse shape given the basic fiscal pressures and constraints. BD govt has expended ~ 30 billion USD in a short manner of time to defend the Taka in the current range setting....more than half its reserve apex around ~2019.

Then there is the election season and post-election setting to then factor in for BD which will have their unique intensity along with however the forex and fiscal situations shape up later.

BD govt has also signalled its commitment to maintain Taka around 110 to USD so unless inflows really change (till election and then 2024 post election), that will put further pressure on current forex level.

This explains a large degree of the reluctance to commit to things in the years prior too. This inner vulnerability would have been known by some close enough to BAL leadership....to add to other factors that keep coming up as to the "why" acquiring one squadron of decent fighter aircraft took this long.

Well….I was actually pointing out to fact that how long both programs have been going without any meaningful progress. (Specially, Indian MRFA which itself is successor of MRCA program from 2008)

I wouldn’t say BD's MRCA is in far worse shape or it can't be realized. Because clearly we ain’t gonna pay with cold cash anyway. They will take loans in favourable terms from Italy or UK.

However I agree, given the terrible shape Forex is in, deal may not be finalised in 2024. But probably within 2025. Otherwise, fielding 1 squadron of MRCA would slip the 2030 force goal timeline.

but of course, as you mentioned there are other "why" also. One obvious one is Inter-Service rivalry. For example, i don’t think BAF Can secure funding before Navy's frigate program. Which was delayed in part because army first secured a big purchase from Turkey (1 billion deal in 2021). And shortly after that government started to run out of dollars.

Marlii · Nov 16, 2023

Afif said:
Well….I was actually pointing out to fact that how long both programs have been going without any meaningful progress. (Specially, Indian MRFA which itself is successor of MRCA program from 2008)

I wouldn’t say BD's MRCA is in far worse shape or it can't be realized. Because clearly we ain’t gonna pay with cold cash anyway. They will take loans in favourable terms from Italy or UK.

However I agree, given the terrible shape Forex is in, deal may not be finalised in 2024. But probably within 2025. Otherwise, fielding 1 squadron of MRCA would slip the 2030 force goal timeline.

but of course, as you mentioned there are other "why" also. One obvious one is Inter-Service rivalry. For example, i don’t think BAF Can secure funding before Navy's frigate program. Which was delayed in part because army first secured a big purchase from Turkey (1 billion deal in 2021). And shortly after that government started to run out of dollars.

I would still say Bangladesh MRFA program is in more of a rough shape than its indian counterpart because of how much less simple it is. Even the OG MMRCA failed because of the status of the HAL manufacturing them. All the testing that they did during that program is gonna help IAF in the new program. The naval rafale deal for eg took only one year in testing and declaring the winner so have to expect the same speed in the new program also.The only new jet competing that is worth testing is the f15ex.

Knowledgeseeker · Nov 17, 2023

Nilgiri said:
As far as I understand, it is very likely to be the Rafale given the momentum here of the acquisitions so far, platform training and experience accumulated (within IAF already and IN to come), ecosystem developed and greater strategic partnership robustness with France.

Budgeting finance have to be completed and secured though (given economic and fiscal pressure in general and funding pressures/constraints within defence domain specifically too).

Another matter is dassault seeking to increase its stake in the DRAL JV (with reliance at its nagpur facility, which is tasked with rafale components and business jets so far) from 49% to 100%....and role this would then play in rafale assembly line here (that would need to take shape given the long term defence infra India forsees and requires).

These matters likely will get more clarity after the 2024 elections in India.

Why would Reliance Defense sell 100 % of the shares to Dassault? Do you have any more details regarding the requirements that India has set for the tender?

Nilgiri · Nov 17, 2023

Knowledgeseeker said:
Why would Reliance Defense sell 100 % of the shares to Dassault? Do you have any more details regarding the requirements that India has set for the tender?

It is just that joint venture (DRAL) rather than any large part of the Reliance group. Reliance finances have not been in the best of shape and they have been apparently reluctant to invest more into DRAL. Reliance capital (large holding company within the conglomerate) racked up all kind of debt for example that they have been auctioning to preserve remaining asset base through 2023.

Dassault on other hand (attuned to reliance's finance problems and favourable MRFA decisions coming up aided by the big win in the navy contract) wants to do things by itself rather than the JV route if Indian govt permits this....rather than find another Indian partner (to say buyout Reliances share in DRAL).

So since a DRAL facility already exists, it makes sense to buy it out and expand it etc for say a Rafale production line:

Dassault Aviation 'seeks to buy out Reliance stake' in defence facility, set up 100% venture in India

While the French firm owns 49% stake in the Nagpur-based joint-venture, Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited, 51% is held by Reliance Defence.

theprint.in

The details for the RFP will come out soon, here is what IDRW has to say about it:

Indian Air Force’s Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft Programme to have Stringent RFP – Indian Defence Research Wing

idrw.org

Knowledgeseeker · Nov 18, 2023

Nilgiri said:
It is just that joint venture (DRAL) rather than any large part of the Reliance group. Reliance finances have not been in the best of shape and they have been apparently reluctant to invest more into DRAL. Reliance capital (large holding company within the conglomerate) racked up all kind of debt for example that they have been auctioning to preserve remaining asset base through 2023.

Dassault on other hand (attuned to reliance's finance problems and favourable MRFA decisions coming up aided by the big win in the navy contract) wants to do things by itself rather than the JV route if Indian govt permits this....rather than find another Indian partner (to say buyout Reliances share in DRAL).

So since a DRAL facility already exists, it makes sense to buy it out and expand it etc for say a Rafale production line:

Dassault Aviation 'seeks to buy out Reliance stake' in defence facility, set up 100% venture in India

While the French firm owns 49% stake in the Nagpur-based joint-venture, Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited, 51% is held by Reliance Defence.

theprint.in

The details for the RFP will come out soon, here is what IDRW has to say about it:

Indian Air Force’s Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft Programme to have Stringent RFP – Indian Defence Research Wing

idrw.org

Ah, that makes much more sense! Hopefully, such a project will be headed by Indian engineers and technicians that can later be utilized in other programs such as the development of the AMCA.

I like the way India is dealing with their procurements, and many states are using the same formula regarding know-how, and offset agreements when making a procurement. Either it is the 114 fighter jets, Submarine cooperation with the Naval group, production of artillery howitzers ( ATHOS), and perhaps other critical and huge cooperation programs that I'm not aware of.