India Indian Economy + Infra Archive

[Indos]

Let us not derail the thread.

In summary, Indonesians are not very successful anywhere in the world. Not in their own countries or outside.

South Asians, primarily Indians, are not very successful in their own countries but exceptional immigrants from these communities have outperformed immigrants from most countries of the world.

The same is true of Vietnamese and Filipinos. In that their performance both in their home countries and abroad are not superlative.

Therefore, Indonesia or Vietnam are not to be seen in any greater positive light in comparison to South Asia. India is already a greater power than any country in ASEAN. On top of that, Pakistan and Bangladesh are each individually almost as big as Indonesia. Given their longer histories, civilizations and culture, one might be tempted to think Pakistan with its nuclear weapons is also a potentially greater power than any member of ASEAN.

Bangladesh, not as strategically significant as its two older "brothers" - if I might call them - with a military mostly subservient to India and the USA, if I am not mistaken, will probably still be able to outshine most ASEAN countries. At worst, Bangladesh will be able to give Vietnam, Indonesia or Philippines a good run for their money.

I understand that Bangladesh is the "weakest link" in that argument and that may have prompted you to accuse me of being a Bangladeshi. It would be impudent of you to do so in the future.

I have had discussions, rather than arguments, with multiple members here. Those discussions would have clearly shown that I did not oppose India or side with India all the time.

I did not oppose or side with multiple Bangladeshi members either, as my discussion history in the forum can attest to.

Differences of opinion, exhibited in a civilized manner, can be appreciated.

In summary, there is ample proof that East Asia is considerably more developed than South Asia today and it will probably remain the case in the next few decades. However, there is no proof that ASEAN countries like Vietnam, Indonesia or Philippines are in any way, shape or form substantially more developed than South Asian countries. There is no indication of those 3 ASEAN members' greater potential for development, either, given the performances of their citizens at home or abroad when compared to citizens of South Asia.

So you once again avoid to clarify your ethnicity...........As I said in my previous post I think you were Bangladeshi due to debate that you did with Nilgiry. I dont understand why you see it as impudent as what you need to do is just to clarify it, simple as that.

I dont think we should be over sensitive about matter like that. A new Chinese member in other forum also think I am a Chinese ethnic for what ever reason and I just need to clarify it by saying I am a Minangnese, one of native Indonesian ethnic group. Case closed. The word "accuse" that you use also seem like some thing negative and you just feel like get insulted if some one think you are a Bangladeshi.

Look, personally I dont say Indonesian as superior than South Asian, that kind of notion is not even touched by me in my post. I dont think it is wise to say thing like that. I just want to question your parameter about the relationship between which one is better with the fact many Indians are quite excel in their professional performance in the West by seeing how many of them work in credible world institution and also big companies like Google and others. I have said few Indonesian migrate so it means that case cannot become the parameter since the situation is not comparable.

I dont want to debate about which one is better, South East Asian or South Asian. I just question your parameter. That's it.

 

[Nilgiri]

Indian and Pakistan student who study overseas is notorious for their willingness and eagerness to adopt their newhome countries instead going back to their homeland, especially one who study in UK, US and other European western countries. This fact is almost the same with China and Vietnam cases. Don't know if it all about culture and so on, what i am related there is other society like Japan who in the past when they are still being poor rarely prefer to settled at the more developed countries and even the slightest discrimination they are suffered is enough to made them back to their homeland and turning those tales into long term story being told for generations.

I don't think Indians (and Pakistanis) are too different to any other developing country on it.

Even if you look at Japan:

Firstly japanese-american population is around 800,000:

Japanese Americans - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Indian-Americans are about 3.8 million:

Indian Americans - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

....about 5 times more rather than like 10+ times more (ratio of origin-country populations).

Even when you account for 1st gen immigrants only for both (given the earlier waves in late 19th and early 20th century):

Countries of Birth for U.S. Immigrants, 1960-Present

This tool allows you to view the trends in the size of the immigrant population from a given country between 1960 and 2021. Immigrants from Italy represented the largest immigrant group in the United States in 1960. How did this population change over time? And what about other immigrant groups...

www.migrationpolicy.org

the ratio is around 2.6/0.36 = 7 times .....and used to be pretty much 1:1 even though in 1980s Japan was far far more wealthier than India....yet this relative level of Japanese immigration to the US.

Whereas population ratios of home countries is around 11 times.

With much more developed economy, Japanese students still come to US to study (esp up to early 2000s) and also many come for OPT-STEM relative to their population:

Number of Foreign College Students Staying and Working in U.S. After Graduation Surges

The federal Optional Practical Training (OPT) program saw a 400% increase in foreign students graduating and working in STEM fields between 2008 and 2016.

www.pewresearch.org

IIE Open Doors / Leading Places of Origin

Using Data to Open Doors

opendoorsdata.org

These days Japanese (foreign study) students mostly go for short-term language studies anyway (for say undergrad or similar)....so they are not really comparable to countries still in earlier stage of development.

If you are talking when Japan was lot "poorer" and at somewhat equivalent level, well from 1924 - 1965, US banned all immigration from Japan (and many other countries) so we do not have the reference for what Japanese student immigration would have been at their similar generation of development.

By 1965, Japan was already in much better shape to a) handle more of its students internally and b) absorb back students that went abroad. So we just don't have that window to compare in relative way.

Hence as India develops further we will see this trend too...and in fact are already seeing it. As bad as India was around 2008 (in ease of doing business and market reform implementation), a large reverse brain drain was noticed due to the economic crisis in West at that time.

It is simply matter of If countries develop the capacity and competitivenesss in STEM areas (related to overall economy), their return/retention (and in fact attraction to other STEM foreign students to study and immigrate) increases.

I do not see it as cultural specific.

 

[Nilgiri]

You cannot use this as a parameter for some short of assessment. Indonesian rarely become immigrant in other country. You will see very little Indonesian community living in the West, as Bangladeshi who live in Canada I think you have already known that. Only Vietnamese and Philipinos that I think like to immigrate, but the number is much lower than South Asian.

Well English is not so prevalent in Indonesia (taught at school from young age etc)...this gives a big leg up to South Asia (esp educated layer) to integrate with English speaking countries in general.

Dutch speaking world is not that big now (compared to English) and also Indonesia didn't continue Dutch as a language to study at school etc.

But I would think things would be different if say Indonesia had British colonial history like India did (and continue English in schooling)....as you would have lot larger English speaking world.

 

[Nilgiri]

In summary, Indonesians are not very successful anywhere in the world. Not in their own countries or outside.

To said the South Asian is more competitive when one looking at their marginal achievement as a country is actually a joke itself.

Guys lets not do this. Both are not correct.

Indonesians are plenty successful just like anyone else when given the same opportunities.

I would also not call South Asia as "marginal achievement" when you put everything in context.

India especially once it getting its act together is achieving big things....and economically will gather even more pace now as it reforms there and corrects past errors and harmful policy.

Many countries ( in south Asia region and around the world) simply sit on ballistic missile military tech, and are unable to convert that to even a local sounding rocket. Not so with India, and you can ask yourself why till you actually take time to read the science and engineering output.

 

[Nilgiri]

Explained | All you need to know about PLI scheme

The government in March made 53 bulk drugs eligible for a PLI worth Rs 6,940 crore. The scheme is expected to benefit up to 136 manufacturing units, generating incremental sales of Rs 46,400 crore and significant additional employment generation over the next eight years.

www.moneycontrol.com

This was a good watch @Paro

 

[Indos]

Well English is not so prevalent in Indonesia (taught at school from young age etc)...this gives a big leg up to South Asia (esp educated layer) to integrate with English speaking countries in general.

Dutch speaking world is not that big now (compared to English) and also Indonesia didn't continue Dutch as a language to study at school etc.

But I would think things would be different if say Indonesia had British colonial history like India did (and continue English in schooling)....as you would have lot larger English speaking world.

Yep, and I guess that English speaking capability that help Indian services to penetrate US and English speaking market much easier than other developing countries. Maybe you could give us some clue here about your service sectors, in what industry they are leading and is it dominated by small and medium size companies or large companies ?

 

[Nilgiri]

Yep, and I guess that English speaking capability that help Indian services to penetrate US and English speaking market much easier than other developing countries. Maybe you could give us some clue here about your service sectors, in what industry they are leading and is it dominated by small and medium size companies or large companies ?

Mostly for IT and BPO (as they relate to exports), the companies are fairly large + corporate.

You are right they are mostly oriented to english-speaking countries (esp US) but also leveraging fact English is the global language in general so that helps with developed countries in general.

Tourism is now also taking off and growing a large deal...it is normally counted as service trade (export when foreigner comes to India and import when Indian goes to foreign etc).

In total w.r.t services for 2019:

https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelServiceCountry_TS.aspx?nvpm=1%7c699%7c%7c%7c%7c%7c%7cS00%7c1%7c3%7c1%7c2%7c2%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c%7c1

India exported services around 219 billion USD worth.

India exported goods around 323 billion USD.

So as you can see in total it came to 542 billion

....and services makes up 40% and goods around 60% of the total.

This is reason we are now focusing on increasing Goods trade lot more as this provides lot more labour intensive employment. PLI scheme announced which you can read (whole thread might be interesting to you and others):

Indian Manufacturing Analysis + Debate

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/10/indigenous-warship-construction.html While indigenisation of the design, development and construction of naval principal surface combatants is a laudable objective, it is the apex-level project management of successive warship construction projects...

defencehub.live

==========

Indonesia figures for 2019 were:

Goods = 167 billion

Services = 32 billion

Total = 200 billion

Goods made up 84% and Services around 16%.

So English speaking differential definitely accounts for some of this contextual difference (as to ratio of export composition) between the two countries.

Indonesia is ahead by raw total export figure 200/542 = 37% given your population is 268/1350 = 20% of ours.

i.e about twice as good per capita than us.

Both countries overall have much catch up to do and improve, we must continue good reforms and wise investment policies.

 

[Milspec]

More choices driven by competition in sector:

Royal Enfield plans a slew of launches to protect its turf

As many as 15-20 product actions are under consideration for the coming 3-5 years, and Royal Enfield could potentially launch one motorcycle every quarter during that period, officials told ET.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

I just bought a RE GT650 Twin.

 

[Nilgiri]

I just bought a RE GT650 Twin.

Been seeing good amount of positive reviews and experiences for it.... high value for money too.

You have picked well....but tell us how it goes.

 

[Milspec]

Been seeing good amount of positive reviews and experiences for it.... high value for money too.

You have picked well....but tell us how it goes.

I just got it on Diwali, was out at the DMV this morning getting the plates. This is the 3rd bike in the stable. We finally have an Indian company that has created a global product from the ground up that looks good, rides well, has that classic British twin feel. All of us should pick one up, I say.

 

[ekemenirtu]

Lol, South Asia is by their HDI achievement had clearly showed US who at the lead. Indonesian and other ASEAN communities by large is not fond to migrate to even the more developed countries, you can see the number is fairly small for their large population, Vietnam is special case as they are mostly forced migrant with the fall of Hanoi at the end of Vietnam war. To said the South Asian is more competitive when one looking at their marginal achievement as a country is actually a joke itself.

Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Lao, Philippines or Timor Leste are not leading destinations for immigrants. They are not leaders in HDI indicators. They are not developed countries or moderately prosperous countries either.

To the best of my knowledge, Indonesian and Filipino migrants work as maids in richer countries. To proclaim Indonesians never migrate abroad is unethical.

Moreover, Indonesia is a poor, developing country unable to offer the most basic services to the vast majority of its citizenry. By default, much like India or Pakistan, their citizens are not doing particularly well in their own countries.

In contrast to Indonesian and Filipino maids, Indian migrants and to a lesser extent, Pakistani migrants have fared relatively well in their adopted countries.

Moreover, countries like India and Pakistan are actual nuclear powers. One of them has a reasonably competent space program and has tested ICBM. The other operates MRBM and possibly, IRBM. Both countries are leading military powers in their region and arguably, comfortably stronger than any ASEAN member both on account of indigenously developed technologies and acquired technologies.

Both countries, especially India, are courted by various foreign countries for a variety of reasons. These include their diplomatic reach, military readiness and capabilities, ready source of well trained labour force and also cheap labour for less skilled tasks as well as a market for their products or services.

The same can not be said of ASEAN members such as Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Lao or Philippines.

Their presence on global affairs or their regional affairs is insignificant. HDI ranks are meaningful only when there is a substantial - read, huge - difference in values.

Canada and Singapore - the leading country in HDI within ASEAN - are assigned comparable HDI ranks. There is not much of a statistical difference between the two countries.

Canada and Indonesia/Vietnam/Myanmar/Cambodia are assigned vastly different HDI ranks. The statistical differences are too big to ignore. We can safely say Indonesia/Vietnam/Myanmar/Cambodia are a lot less developed according to HDI ranks. An indicator of limited utility.

When it comes to South Asia and populous ASEAN countries, again, the statistical differences are minor.

None of them are ranked within the top 100 countries in HDI, an index you probably have no inkling about.

Indonesia - rank 111th
Myanmar - rank 145th
Vietnam - rank 118th
Philippines - rank 118th
Cambodia - rank 146th
Laos - rank 140th

Sri Lanka - rank 71st
Maldives - rank 101st
India - rank 129th
Bangladesh - rank 135th
Pakistan - 152nd


No significant differences. With Sri Lanka a clear standout performer ranked 71st, the only country in the list above ranked better than 100.

 

[ekemenirtu]

Guys lets not do this. Both are not correct.

Indonesians are plenty successful just like anyone else when given the same opportunities.

I would also not call South Asia as "marginal achievement" when you put everything in context.

India especially once it getting its act together is achieving big things....and economically will gather even more pace now as it reforms there and corrects past errors and harmful policy.

Many countries ( in south Asia region and around the world) simply sit on ballistic missile military tech, and are unable to convert that to even a local sounding rocket. Not so with India, and you can ask yourself why till you actually take time to read the science and engineering output.

Have you heard of 100 successful Indonesians abroad?

In the developed countries of the world? I have never come across any. Indians and Chinese, among third world immigrants, are prominent not only due to their sheer numbers but also the positions of influence they have obtained in various government, private and academic institutions.

To a much lesser extent, this is true for Pakistanis.

I have yet to see prominent Indonesians abroad.

From all the available evidence, none of South Asia or ASEAN are desirable destinations to migrate to. None of them are leading tech powers or well established scientific powers. Among these laggards, I believe the overwhelming evidence points to India as the leader within South Asia and ASEAN.

However, Indonesia - despite its population - can not stake its claim as the undisputed leader in ASEAN, the undisputed leader within the wider Muslim world (with the largest Muslim population in any country, supposedly) or the undisputed leader within its region that also includes Australia and ASEAN.

The same is true for Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia or Myanmar. None of them are undisputed leaders in their immediate regions or in the wider religio-socio-cultural world that they represent.

For these reasons and many more, while I do see East Asia - China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan - continuing to lead South Asia and ASEAN in scientific advancements, technological developments and socioeconomic progress, I do not see ASEAN able to establish a clear lead over South Asia anytime in the coming decades.

All the available evidence points to that occurrence.

If the invasion of/war in Afghanistan ends soon enough and Pakistan and Afghanistan enjoy peace dividends for a decade or so, I believe Pakistan too would leapfrog past the bigger ASEAN members such as Indonesia, Philippines, Cambodia or Laos. The potential certainly is there.

It is laughable that an Indonesian would think his country holds any meaningful 'lead' over South Asia when it is not even the industrial, scientific, military, diplomatic, or technological leader within its own region.

 

[ekemenirtu]

Mostly for IT and BPO (as they relate to exports), the companies are fairly large + corporate.

You are right they are mostly oriented to english-speaking countries (esp US) but also leveraging fact English is the global language in general so that helps with developed countries in general.

Tourism is now also taking off and growing a large deal...it is normally counted as service trade (export when foreigner comes to India and import when Indian goes to foreign etc).

In total w.r.t services for 2019:

https://www.trademap.org/Country_SelServiceCountry_TS.aspx?nvpm=1%7c699%7c%7c%7c%7c%7c%7cS00%7c1%7c3%7c1%7c2%7c2%7c1%7c2%7c1%7c%7c1

India exported services around 219 billion USD worth.

India exported goods around 323 billion USD.

So as you can see in total it came to 542 billion

....and services makes up 40% and goods around 60% of the total.

This is reason we are now focusing on increasing Goods trade lot more as this provides lot more labour intensive employment. PLI scheme announced which you can read (whole thread might be interesting to you and others):

Indian Manufacturing Analysis + Debate

http://trishul-trident.blogspot.com/2020/10/indigenous-warship-construction.html While indigenisation of the design, development and construction of naval principal surface combatants is a laudable objective, it is the apex-level project management of successive warship construction projects...

defencehub.live

==========

Indonesia figures for 2019 were:

Goods = 167 billion

Services = 32 billion

Total = 200 billion

Goods made up 84% and Services around 16%.

So English speaking differential definitely accounts for some of this contextual difference (as to ratio of export composition) between the two countries.

Indonesia is ahead by raw total export figure 200/542 = 37% given your population is 268/1350 = 20% of ours.

i.e about twice as good per capita than us.

Both countries overall have much catch up to do and improve, we must continue good reforms and wise investment policies.

You can not look at exports in isolation.

Net exports or exports - imports is of greater importance.

Indonesia is primarily a raw materials exporter.

India is an exporter of less sophisticated items.

Indonesia is an exporter of even less sophisticated items.

Resulting in a rank of 61 for Indonesia and 42 for India in Economic Complexity Index. An index with its limitations in that Export Complexity Index should have been a more appropriate name for this index.

Of course, items may be manufactured at a certain location but their ideation, research and development may have occurred elsewhere. This index ECI fails to take into account the global nature of manufacturing, assembly, test and research and development. Or the global value chain, as it is often called.

 

[Raptor]

THU NOV 19, 2020 / 2:16 PM IST

India's economy to return to normal faster than expected: Barclays​

• 
  

REUTERS/DANISH SIDDIQUI
(Reuters) - Barclays lifted its fiscal 2022 growth forecast for the Indian economy to 8.5% from an earlier projection of 7%, saying the country would "return to normal" faster than expected as the COVID-19 curve in the world's second-most populous nation starts flattening.
India is nearing 9 million confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus – the second highest in the world, after the United States – but the number of new daily cases has fallen since a peak in mid-September.
"The prospect of an effective vaccine in the near future and high seroprevalence of antibodies across the population support the case for a more durable economic recovery," Barclays said in a note.
ADVERTISEMENT
Businesses have opened up and economic activity has picked up in India after one of the world's strictest lockdowns were eased, with companies like motorcycle maker Hero MotoCorp and jewellery maker Titan Company reporting strong sales during the festive season.
The brokerage, however, revised down its GDP forecast for the current fiscal year to negative 6.4% from negative 6%. It expects GDP to fall by 8.5% in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, almost in line with the Indian central bank's forecast.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projected GDP to contract by 8.6% in the July-September quarter, implying the country was likely to have entered a technical recession in the first half of the year for the first time in its history.
Barclays said on Thursday it expects growth in GDP will resume in the third quarter of the current financial year, a quarter earlier than the RBI's projection.
Last month, a Reuters poll showed the Indian economy would rebound by 9.0% in fiscal 2022, after suffering its deepest contraction on record this fiscal year.

India's economy to return to normal faster than expected: Barclays

Barclays lifted its fiscal 2022 growth forecast for the Indian economy to 8.5% from an earlier projection of 7%, saying the country would "return to normal" faster than expected as the COVID-19 curve in the world's second-most populous nation starts flattening.

in.mobile.reuters.com

 

[Nilgiri]

Indian economy back on track in Q2; Morgan Stanley says GDP contraction narrows significantly

GDP may have contracted at a slower pace of 6 per cent on-year in Q2 FY21, compared to a 23.9 per cent fall in the previous quarter.

www.financialexpress.com

 

[kaykay]

Indian forex reserves at 572.7 billion USD. Up by 4.2 billion USD over last week. Added almost 20 billion USD in last 30 days.

 

[Nilgiri]

Indian forex reserves at 572.7 billion USD. Up by 4.2 billion USD over last week. Added almost 20 billion USD in last 30 days.

Yeah but this is from depressed economy still having reduced imports significantly.

Oil imports for example have considerably decreased....both by lower price and lower volume demanded by Indian economy due to lockdown.

This is just one example, there are several more.

It will take some time for picture of the real forex equilibrium to shape up again.

Economic performance right now is not tied to forex picture much.

 

[kaykay]

Yeah but this is from depressed economy still having reduced imports significantly.

Oil imports for example have considerably decreased....both by lower price and lower volume demanded by Indian economy due to lockdown.

This is just one example, there are several more.

It will take some time for picture of the real forex equilibrium to shape up again.

Economic performance right now is not tied to forex picture much.

Yup. Pretty much that. Indian economy will do a come back only in next financial year.

 

[Nilgiri]

Indian cars and going forward some armoured cars, mine resistant carriers would most likely be sold.

Honestly I wouldn't concern too much with BD market for cars...defense or otherwise, esp what 1 or 2 typical sorts think/project/assert on defense forums.... we just get things done there on the ground:

Indian Railways loaded 83 pick-up vans from Kalamboli in Maharashtra to Benapole in Bangladesh​

If you look at OEC breakup (regarding what BD imports from India regd transport items), its tells its own story too.

These are also hard numbers, vetted also by actual street scene prevalence in vlogs etc of Dhaka....as opposed to industry park brochure generation for last 5+ years....that produce more brochures.

 

[Rajendra Chola]

Honestly I wouldn't concern too much with BD market for cars...defense or otherwise, esp what 1 or 2 typical sorts think/project/assert on defense forums.... we just get things done there on the ground:

Indian Railways loaded 83 pick-up vans from Kalamboli in Maharashtra to Benapole in Bangladesh​

If you look at OEC breakup (regarding what BD imports from India regd transport items), its tells its own story too.

These are also hard numbers, vetted also by actual street scene prevalence in vlogs etc of Dhaka....as opposed to industry park brochure generation for last 5+ years....that produce more brochure

I thought Bilal would change after coming to this forum. I just saw him trolling there and coming here as if he is on point.

Dreaming bout US or Singaporean products when they are flying F7PG as their main base. BD is improving, that much is a given. But it's development is not seen other than Dhaka and that's where I believe fudging comes in.