Historical Indus Valley Civilization Research papers and Theories.

[OverTheHorizon]

May I cite this? This is such a balanced argument.

Please feel free.

 

[Jackdaws]

Time spent on Pak-China circle jerk forum means that personal insults are muscle memory and reflex actions. I too have fallen prey to this but we need to break that habit. A discussion between us can be spirited but cordial.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Please feel free.

Just did it. Now I shall wait for the reactions. Unfortunately - and the irony is that I preface my remarks by saying that this is unfortunate, since most of that forum are liberal, they might well react to say, "Quite so. Very well said, but why are you getting excited? After all, this is what all of us have been arguing and will continue to argue!"

Unfortunate, precisely because we DO NOT argue thus, and it is rather better stated than we have been wont to do.

I am tempted to quote a wise saw from the Latin, or some other such exotic language, but perhaps in the context, it is best to say,"Ghar ki murghi dal barabar."

 

[OverTheHorizon]

Time spent on Pak-China circle jerk forum means that personal insults are muscle memory and reflex actions. I too have fallen prey to this but we need to break that habit. A discussion between us can be spirited but cordial.

Remember, cornered animals lash out. It is not out of courage but out of fear. Pakistanis are in eternal fear of what India can do to them. The reality is Pakistan is a thin sliver of land populated alongside the Indus and its tributaries in the Punjab. And even that sliver is witnessing desertification at a rapid rate. Being an agricultural economy, water starvation pretty much can end Pakistan as a viable entity. Also, think about this card India has - the river Sutlej is what has been turned into the Rajasthan Canal and has greened much of desert areas of Rajasthan. Then look at the areas where the Sutlej flows (right word would be "trickles") in Pakistani Punjab and evaluate the desertification there. You will quickly understand why the Pakistani establishment is in perennial fear and hatred of India. It is because India holds ALL the cards viz-a-viz Pakistan and they hold none against India. India can pretty much green the partially desert state of Rajasthan at devastating costs to Pakistani Punjab and Sindh, which pretty much would end Pakistan as a nation-state.
If you were in Pakistan's place, what would you do? Lash out, out of perpetual fear of the unknown and massive insecurities. India's refusal to engage with Pakistan for seven long years now means the Pakistani establishment does not even know what Indian government is actually thinking - so they keep shouting into an echo chamber expecting some response from India, but just hearing feedback of their own desperate, fear-addled calls. They tried to create leverage against India using the only card they could play - Islamizing Kashmir valley. Unfortunately for them, India's economic rise and them becoming massively poor, pretty much ended that campaign with colossal losses to Pakistan. But now they are trying the China card, which is guaranteed to fail 100%.
In conclusion, all that is now left for them is to croon and brood at every forum they are invited to, which is not that many, until the eventual reality catches up to them - a reality which I will leave to your imagination to conjure up.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Remember, cornered animals lash out. It is not out of courage but out of fear. Pakistanis are in eternal fear of what India can do to them. The reality is Pakistan is a thin sliver of land populated alongside the Indus and its tributaries in the Punjab. And even that sliver is witnessing desertification at a rapid rate. Being an agricultural economy, water starvation pretty much can end Pakistan as a viable entity. Also, think about this card India has - the river Sutlej is what has been turned into the Rajasthan Canal and has greened much of desert areas of Rajasthan. Then look at the areas where the Sutlej flows (right word would be "trickles") in Pakistani Punjab and evaluate the desertification there. You will quickly understand why the Pakistani establishment is in perennial fear and hatred of India. It is because India holds ALL the cards viz-a-viz Pakistan and they hold none against India. India can pretty much green the partially desert state of Rajasthan at devastating costs to Pakistani Punjab and Sindh, which pretty much would end Pakistan as a nation-state.
If you were in Pakistan's place, what would you do? Lash out, out of perpetual fear of the unknown and massive insecurities. India's refusal to engage with Pakistan for seven long years now means the Pakistani establishment does not even know what Indian government is actually thinking - so they keep shouting into an echo chamber expecting some response from India, but just hearing feedback of their own desperate, fear-addled calls. They tried to create leverage against India using the only card they could play - Islamizing Kashmir valley. Unfortunately for them, India's economic rise and them becoming massively poor, pretty much ended that campaign with colossal losses to Pakistan. But now they are trying the China card, which is guaranteed to fail 100%.
In conclusion, all that is now left for them is to croon and brood at every forum they are invited to, which is not that many, until the eventual reality catches up to them - a reality which I will leave to your imagination to conjure up.

Their predicament is clear enough, but there is a lot to be reviewed about both their motivation, and their ability to affect India.

First, about their motivation. This mutual hostility was never about riparian rights and the water shortage problem. It never was, and putting it on top is bringing up a relatively minor issue from earlier times, and promoting it to the position where it will make or break our fragile peace.

They did not have these fears, common to every downstream riparian beneficiary vis-a-vis their upstream neighbours. This is the same fear that India and Bangladesh share with respect to possible Chinese actions interfering with the Yarlung Tsangpo, the upstream Brahmaputra. The point is, the narrative does not begin here.

The narrative begins with the details of the arrangements to partition the British Crown Colony of India, and to allow the princely states to join either post-partition Dominion. We need to remind ourselves - the political entity that strove for years for first, establishing the concept of Pakistan, and its rationale, second, for making that concept reality, lost disastrously in the 1937 elections while India was still a colony. It was only after the momentous developments that occurred in between - the Congress rejection of the Viceory Lord Linlithgow's entering the war without any consultation with Indian politicians, the Quit India movement, Subhas Bose's thrilling escape from his house arrest, the formation of the INA, the battles for Kohima and Imphal, the fall of the Japanese, and finally the decision to try three symbolic INA soldiers, and the RIN mutiny.

Suddenly, the realisation came to India that things were completely different, that things were on the verge of major, sweeping change. It was at this point that there was a massive polarisation of opinion. Many Muslims who had earlier voted for regional Muslim parties, or even, in marginal cases, for the Congress, now swung over entirely to the Muslim League. The majority needed was 52, out of a 102 seats. The Congress got 59, the League got all the reserved Muslim seats, 30 in all and the balance 13 went to an assortment.

It became clear that if the League demanded partition - IF - then partition would be difficult to withstand. That was NOT a given yet, and the events of the next 18 months went a long way to set the tone for today.

There are excellent accounts of what followed on insaniyat, and on PDF, and I shall not go into those interesting, but well-worn details.

The point was to place Pakistani water insecurities in context, as being of comparatively recent origin, and as remaining an overlay on their other feelings. We can discuss further, with focus on their current state of mind, provided there is interest. Further, discussing this as an isolated group of Indians will remain a one-sided and not necessarily accurate effort. We need to broaden this conversation.

 

[OverTheHorizon]

Their predicament is clear enough, but there is a lot to be reviewed about both their motivation, and their ability to affect India.

First, about their motivation. This mutual hostility was never about riparian rights and the water shortage problem. It never was, and putting it on top is bringing up a relatively minor issue from earlier times, and promoting it to the position where it will make or break our fragile peace.

They did not have these fears, common to every downstream riparian beneficiary vis-a-vis their upstream neighbours. This is the same fear that India and Bangladesh share with respect to possible Chinese actions interfering with the Yarlung Tsangpo, the upstream Brahmaputra. The point is, the narrative does not begin here.

The narrative begins with the details of the arrangements to partition the British Crown Colony of India, and to allow the princely states to join either post-partition Dominion. We need to remind ourselves - the political entity that strove for years for first, establishing the concept of Pakistan, and its rationale, second, for making that concept reality, lost disastrously in the 1937 elections while India was still a colony. It was only after the momentous developments that occurred in between - the Congress rejection of the Viceory Lord Linlithgow's entering the war without any consultation with Indian politicians, the Quit India movement, Subhas Bose's thrilling escape from his house arrest, the formation of the INA, the battles for Kohima and Imphal, the fall of the Japanese, and finally the decision to try three symbolic INA soldiers, and the RIN mutiny.

Suddenly, the realisation came to India that things were completely different, that things were on the verge of major, sweeping change. It was at this point that there was a massive polarisation of opinion. Many Muslims who had earlier voted for regional Muslim parties, or even, in marginal cases, for the Congress, now swung over entirely to the Muslim League. The majority needed was 52, out of a 102 seats. The Congress got 59, the League got all the reserved Muslim seats, 30 in all and the balance 13 went to an assortment.

It became clear that if the League demanded partition - IF - then partition would be difficult to withstand. That was NOT a given yet, and the events of the next 18 months went a long way to set the tone for today.

There are excellent accounts of what followed on insaniyat, and on PDF, and I shall not go into those interesting, but well-worn details.

The point was to place Pakistani water insecurities in context, as being of comparatively recent origin, and as remaining an overlay on their other feelings. We can discuss further, with focus on their current state of mind, provided there is interest. Further, discussing this as an isolated group of Indians will remain a one-sided and not necessarily accurate effort. We need to broaden this conversation.

Yes. I agree. The water insecurities are of a recent take. What the Modi government has successfully managed to do is increase Pakistani establishment’s fear of the unknown by several folds, by simply employing a low cost strategy - refuse to have any sort of interactions. Pretty clever actually. You can just look at the amount of provocative slogans against India day in and day out reeled out by all the puppet politicians of Pakistan , obviously on the command of their puppeteers, to gauge how much the fear of the unknown is, and how desperate they are for “bringing India to the dialog table”. They just don’t know what India is up to, and they are terribly afraid. Being in this position is new for them. Their entire propaganda is to act as if they are some sort of heavyweights in the world, but the Modi government pretty much gate crashed that magic show and revealed the reality. India’s attacks in Pakistan proper did not help either and only added to more fears - read what their politicians quoted about their Army general’s posture post Balakot (loosely translated “ the general’s legs were shaking and he was profusely sweating from his forehead down”) - about India’s intentions. Pakistani establishment knows full well that India is playing the long game and they are being comprehensively outplayed by Indian diplomacy (everything Pakistanis dished out including their dossier propaganda were all trashed by the global powers that be). Their only card is now China, with India having checkmated them everywhere else, including the Gulf nations. Pakistanis are slowly but surely coming to the reality that they hold zero leverage in global affairs - and it terrifies them, because for decades they have maniacally shouted to their masses that they possess a clout similar to India’s in international affairs. This, then, gives them sleepless nights because questions like “what if India abrogates the Indus Water Treaty?” go unanswered without any assurances or even indications of any assurances from India. Talk about an entire country being in fear of another country every moment of the waking day. That is Pakistan’s fate (at least until the Modi administration is there).

 

[Joe Shearer]

Yes. I agree. The water insecurities are of a recent take. What the Modi government has successfully managed to do is increase Pakistani establishment’s fear of the unknown by several folds, by simply employing a low cost strategy - refuse to have any sort of interactions. Pretty clever actually. You can just look at the amount of provocative slogans against India day in and day out reeled out by all the puppet politicians of Pakistan , obviously on the command of their puppeteers, to gauge how much the fear of the unknown is, and how desperate they are for “bringing India to the dialog table”. They just don’t know what India is up to, and they are terribly afraid. Being in this position is new for them. Their entire propaganda is to act as if they are some sort of heavyweights in the world, but the Modi government pretty much gate crashed that magic show and revealed the reality. India’s attacks in Pakistan proper did not help either and only added to more fears - read what their politicians quoted about their Army general’s posture post Balakot (loosely translated “ the general’s legs were shaking and he was profusely sweating from his forehead down”) - about India’s intentions. Pakistani establishment knows full well that India is playing the long game and they are being comprehensively outplayed by Indian diplomacy (everything Pakistanis dished out including their dossier propaganda were all trashed by the global powers that be). Their only card is now China, with India having checkmated them everywhere else, including the Gulf nations. Pakistanis are slowly but surely coming to the reality that they hold zero leverage in global affairs - and it terrifies them, because for decades they have maniacally shouted to their masses that they possess a clout similar to India’s in international affairs. This, then, gives them sleepless nights because questions like “what if India abrogates the Indus Water Treaty?” go unanswered without any assurances or even indications of any assurances from India. Talk about an entire country being in fear of another country every moment of the waking day. That is Pakistan’s fate (at least until the Modi administration is there).

What a stunning post!

@Nilgiri

You must read this and the previous two, one from me, responding to him, and one his original post. You will know how much I must disagree with the tenor of his post and his finding positive aspects to the Modi administration. I am so entranced by the way he has marshalled his arguments and presented his case. This is a lawyer, beyond a doubt. I refuse to accept any other profession could summon such an almost forensic skill.

 

[OverTheHorizon]

What a stunning post!

@Nilgiri

You must read this and the previous two, one from me, responding to him, and one his original post. You will know how much I must disagree with the tenor of his post and his finding positive aspects to the Modi administration. I am so entranced by the way he has marshalled his arguments and presented his case. This is a lawyer, beyond a doubt. I refuse to accept any other profession could summon such an almost forensic skill.

I am no lawyer. Lol. Couldnt be one even if I wanted to. While there are people who love the Modi administration and others who hate it, there are some, like me, who dispassionately look at what the administration has done and ,for that matter, NOT done. Given India's stage of economic development, India can only afford relatively low cost strategies to ward off threats. And that is what Modi's administration has done and that is why they get this credit from me, at least. Reorganizing J&K and pretty much ignoring Pakistan as an interested party in J&K has thrown Pakistani establishment into a sea of confusion - much like the gurus subjected to the maya jaal of the apsaras. They simply do not know what to do anymore vis-a-vis India. They are shooting in the dark in the hopes that something will hit. But that hardly happens in global politics. Like I said, reality is slowly catching up to Pakistanis who have been living under their establishment imposed time-warp so far.
- OTH

 

[Nilgiri]

What a stunning post!

@Nilgiri

You must read this and the previous two, one from me, responding to him, and one his original post. You will know how much I must disagree with the tenor of his post and his finding positive aspects to the Modi administration. I am so entranced by the way he has marshalled his arguments and presented his case. This is a lawyer, beyond a doubt. I refuse to accept any other profession could summon such an almost forensic skill.

Yes I have been following the discussion....quite an interesting one.

Lawyer....or could be avid student of history like me.

When you study history in enough depth, you tend to see what rhymes, paraphrasing Twain a bit.

From that rhyming you get an idea of the psyche driving it (in the power centres and structure)...and the reasons why behind that if you commit enough attention.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I suddenly feel I am out of my paygrade.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I am no lawyer. Lol. Couldnt be one even if I wanted to. While there are people who love the Modi administration and others who hate it, there are some, like me, who dispassionately look at what the administration has done and ,for that matter, NOT done. Given India's stage of economic development, India can only afford relatively low cost strategies to ward off threats. And that is what Modi's administration has done and that is why they get this credit from me, at least. Reorganizing J&K and pretty much ignoring Pakistan as an interested party in J&K has thrown Pakistani establishment into a sea of confusion - much like the gurus subjected to the maya jaal of the apsaras. They simply do not know what to do anymore vis-a-vis India. They are shooting in the dark in the hopes that something will hit. But that hardly happens in global politics. Like I said, reality is slowly catching up to Pakistanis who have been living under their establishment imposed time-warp so far.
- OTH

I am surprised that you are no lawyer. Whatever you do, your posts are awesome! You've made me re-think my total opposition to the Modi administration, and, in particular, my contempt for its effete foreign policy activities. It is a new perspective; not one, as a friend of all people in south Asia, that I like, but certainly one, as an opponent of dictatorship, open or clandestine, that I do like.

 

[kaniska]

Yes. I agree. The water insecurities are of a recent take. What the Modi government has successfully managed to do is increase Pakistani establishment’s fear of the unknown by several folds, by simply employing a low cost strategy - refuse to have any sort of interactions. Pretty clever actually. You can just look at the amount of provocative slogans against India day in and day out reeled out by all the puppet politicians of Pakistan , obviously on the command of their puppeteers, to gauge how much the fear of the unknown is, and how desperate they are for “bringing India to the dialog table”. They just don’t know what India is up to, and they are terribly afraid. Being in this position is new for them. Their entire propaganda is to act as if they are some sort of heavyweights in the world, but the Modi government pretty much gate crashed that magic show and revealed the reality. India’s attacks in Pakistan proper did not help either and only added to more fears - read what their politicians quoted about their Army general’s posture post Balakot (loosely translated “ the general’s legs were shaking and he was profusely sweating from his forehead down”) - about India’s intentions. Pakistani establishment knows full well that India is playing the long game and they are being comprehensively outplayed by Indian diplomacy (everything Pakistanis dished out including their dossier propaganda were all trashed by the global powers that be). Their only card is now China, with India having checkmated them everywhere else, including the Gulf nations. Pakistanis are slowly but surely coming to the reality that they hold zero leverage in global affairs - and it terrifies them, because for decades they have maniacally shouted to their masses that they possess a clout similar to India’s in international affairs. This, then, gives them sleepless nights because questions like “what if India abrogates the Indus Water Treaty?” go unanswered without any assurances or even indications of any assurances from India. Talk about an entire country being in fear of another country every moment of the waking day. That is Pakistan’s fate (at least until the Modi administration is there).

Here are a few additional advantages of the existing policy with Pakistan followed by the BJP Govt.

1- It will take a generation for India and Pakistan to be friendly to each other. But we can strive to be like normal countries with some rivalries. For example, even if China is much more of a threat to us, it does not invoke similar kinds of emotions as Pakistan creates. So by avoiding any kind of talk to Pakistan, we are not giving any opportunity for anti-Indian elements to talk about Indians within their political narrative. Now, the Pakistan govt can not take an excuse that any Govt which is friendly to us in Pakistan should be considered a traitor.

2- I am pretty sure, that neither the Indian public nor any Govt will go to a level where water will be stopped which will create a big problem for Pakistan...I still believe sanity prevails in our democratic set up which will not allow any such kind of drastic steps to be taken if we are capable of doing it...At the end of the day, we might be rivals, but we do not need to turn ourselves into such a kind of activity. But BJP's aggressive posturing enabled us to keep the ambiguity and uncertainty of our policy toward Pakistan

 

[Joe Shearer]

I still believe insanity prevails in our democratic set up which will not allow any such kind of drastic steps to be taken if we are capable of doing it.

??
Did you mean, "...sanity prevails in our democratic set up..."?

 

[kaniska]

??
Did you mean, "...sanity prevails in our democratic set up..."?

Dangg....Auto correct is a killer for me...Thank you for highlighting it for me.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Dangg....Auto correct is a killer for me...Thank you for highlighting it for me.

If I were to share with you (I dare not!) what it has done to me, you'd fall off your chair laughing.