Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

Gary

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Scott Ritter is this former U.S military officer who happens to have so much bad takes, nobody takes him serious anymore. He's in the league of Douglas MacGregor when it comes to shit takes.

But for this particular claim he at least has a legit ME scholar that backs his claim, Andrew Exum

👇👇

An interesting piece by Andrew Exum a retired U.S army officer and ME scholar about Israel, Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah.


In summary:

1. While the IDF professional core is extremely polished and capable, the Israeli army is and remains a conscript/reservists-based army, the reservists are neither particularly well trained nor well disciplined by American standards.
2. Today Israel faces highly disciplined and motivated nonstate foes in southern Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, and its military does not seem to have a clear advantage over them at the unit level.
3. The segregation of Palestinians and the erection of walls helped the IDF to be in the dark about HAMAS movements.​
4. The few Hezbollah fighters he met in 2006, for the most part, as motivated, well-trained, and disciplined. Those who fought in the 2006 war with Israel retained a certain amount of wary respect for the U.S. military but held their Israeli adversaries in contempt. They had seen Israeli soldiers in action—and had not been impressed.​
5. IDF has discipline issues,: In 2006, Hezbollah was able to locate Israeli positions by intercepting Israeli reservists calling home on their mobile phones.​
6. Hezbollah fighters he interviewed also give little appreciation when it comes to Iran : "A friend of mine questioned a Hezbollah fighter after 2006 about the training he had received from Iran, and his interlocutor scoffed in reply, “Iran? When was the last time those guys won a war?”


So it is in the long term interest for whoever has a plan to keep them in perpetual combat, perpetual loss and perpetual mobilization which would slowly erode whatever military advantage they have with the current status quo, slowly atrit their core highly-trained regular army and transform them more into a reservist heavy army.

When it finally came to that state again as I said, Israel is only a nation of 9 million, of which only 7 millon are jews, they could not afford a forever war if they wish to stay a normal high income country, they could only afford troops surge for a period of time (like in Gaza now). And if in that moment another geopolitical earthquake happens that forced America to leave, they're as good as dead.

Back in the Vietnam war, for a single American soldier killed, the Viet Cong are expecting 100 of their own. So let's see if the Arabs are looking forward that way. They can absolutely afford this to make for their relative bacwardness in tech.
 

GoatsMilk

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The biggest threat facing the USA and Israel is that they have to wage the Ukraine-Gaza and Taiwan wars simultaneously. Even China knows that the USA cannot be present on three fronts at the same time, right?

US ammunition stocks have already eroded in Ukraine. This may be a once in 50 years opportunity for China.

Don't fall for American tricks, these guys if the shit hits the fan will be able to fight wars on many, many fronts. 12 carrier battle groups alone could cause hell to multiple enemies at once. When you spend a trillion dollars on your military in peace times who knows in "world war times" maybe they double or triple how much they spend. We think Turkiye is getting stronger on a budget of 18 billion to be increased to 40 billion, were still nothing compared to the USA.

And guess what, the most important thing to control in a world war is the seas. China is good as long as the seas are open, once they close their export orientated economy will be in big trouble. And only America has the power to control the global seas.
 

Bogeyman 

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Don't fall for American tricks, these guys if the shit hits the fan will be able to fight wars on many, many fronts. 12 carrier battle groups alone could cause hell to multiple enemies at once. When you spend a trillion dollars on your military in peace times who knows in "world war times" maybe they double or triple how much they spend. We think Turkiye is getting stronger on a budget of 18 billion to be increased to 40 billion, were still nothing compared to the USA.

And guess what, the most important thing to control in a world war is the seas. China is good as long as the seas are open, once they close their export orientated economy will be in big trouble. And only America has the power to control the global seas.
The highly qualified inventories of armies survive with their ability to replace losses on the front line. Japan's most advanced cruisers in World War II had to complete the war far away from the front line due to lack of fuel.

The most important thing to understand here is that logistics needs will flow to the front without interruption.

However, we no longer live in the times of World War II. The USA cannot produce hundreds of warplanes in 1 month. It cannot produce dozens of warships in a month.
Unlike World War II, the most visible issue of today's reality in the defense industry will be the mass production of subcomponents. Because here, critical raw materials will need to be procured, stocked and mass produced with economy of scale. Here, procuring the raw material is a separate problem, and protecting that raw material from sabotage or covert attacks by China or Russia will be a another problem.
But let the USA have as much money as it wants. If you are dependent on China for rare earth elements, you cannot obtain them from China for your radar that was destroyed on the front line. Once you destroy the technology that the USA has, perhaps the only one of its kind in the world, reproducing it will not be child's play.

It will also be necessary to distribute critical raw materials in a balanced manner across production across the defense industry. Because this is directly related to the war strategy you will develop against the enemy. If you produce too much of something unnecessarily, you will waste the resources you have.

There is also a famous legend in World War II. Because the Nazi's army inventory was built by American companies. Are you 100% sure that this will happen this time? Because the Earth is much smaller now than it was 70 years ago. And the needs are now much more complex.
 

Gary

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The highly qualified inventories of armies survive with their ability to replace losses on the front line. Japan's most advanced cruisers in World War II had to complete the war far away from the front line due to lack of fuel.

The most important thing to understand here is that logistics needs will flow to the front without interruption.

However, we no longer live in the times of World War II. The USA cannot produce hundreds of warplanes in 1 month. It cannot produce dozens of warships in a month.
Unlike World War II, the most visible issue of today's reality in the defense industry will be the mass production of subcomponents. Because here, critical raw materials will need to be procured, stocked and mass produced with economy of scale. Here, procuring the raw material is a separate problem, and protecting that raw material from sabotage or covert attacks by China or Russia will be a another problem.
But let the USA have as much money as it wants. If you are dependent on China for rare earth elements, you cannot obtain them from China for your radar that was destroyed on the front line. Once you destroy the technology that the USA has, perhaps the only one of its kind in the world, reproducing it will not be child's play.

It will also be necessary to distribute critical raw materials in a balanced manner across production across the defense industry. Because this is directly related to the war strategy you will develop against the enemy. If you produce too much of something unnecessarily, you will waste the resources you have.

There is also a famous legend in World War II. Because the Nazi's army inventory was built by American companies. Are you 100% sure that this will happen this time? Because the Earth is much smaller now than it was 70 years ago. And the needs are now much more complex.

Interesting I'd like to address this on more necessary thread, there's quite some truth here.
 

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The dilemma for Arabs and TR is do we let Iran win over Israel and strengthen the Shia crescent ?
 

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They basically confirmed US Special Forces are in the fight to support Israel.

What idiots when you are supposed to be denying it.

He is sending/flexing a message ...

L

The moment US jump in . Their whole mid east bases are a legitimate target for a non state actor . Which in turn ... Make things very ..very dangerous
Scott Ritter is this former U.S military officer who happens to have so much bad takes, nobody takes him serious anymore. He's in the league of Douglas MacGregor when it comes to shit takes.

But for this particular claim he at least has a legit ME scholar that backs his claim, Andrew Exum

👇👇




So it is in the long term interest for whoever has a plan to keep them in perpetual combat, perpetual loss and perpetual mobilization which would slowly erode whatever military advantage they have with the current status quo, slowly atrit their core highly-trained regular army and transform them more into a reservist heavy army.

When it finally came to that state again as I said, Israel is only a nation of 9 million, of which only 7 millon are jews, they could not afford a forever war if they wish to stay a normal high income country, they could only afford troops surge for a period of time (like in Gaza now). And if in that moment another geopolitical earthquake happens that forced America to leave, they're as good as dead.

Back in the Vietnam war, for a single American soldier killed, the Viet Cong are expecting 100 of their own. So let's see if the Arabs are looking forward that way. They can absolutely afford this to make for their relative bacwardness in tech.

And it will erase the entire US presence in the whole mid east . It might not instantly . But it will gradually . Along with the upheaval in arabs country political scene

The dilemma for Arabs and TR is do we let Iran win over Israel and strengthen the Shia crescent ?

Iran won't win this war ... They only get obliterated , regime changed at the cost of Israel survivability as an ethno jewish state
 

GoatsMilk

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The highly qualified inventories of armies survive with their ability to replace losses on the front line. Japan's most advanced cruisers in World War II had to complete the war far away from the front line due to lack of fuel.

The most important thing to understand here is that logistics needs will flow to the front without interruption.

However, we no longer live in the times of World War II. The USA cannot produce hundreds of warplanes in 1 month. It cannot produce dozens of warships in a month.
Unlike World War II, the most visible issue of today's reality in the defense industry will be the mass production of subcomponents. Because here, critical raw materials will need to be procured, stocked and mass produced with economy of scale. Here, procuring the raw material is a separate problem, and protecting that raw material from sabotage or covert attacks by China or Russia will be a another problem.
But let the USA have as much money as it wants. If you are dependent on China for rare earth elements, you cannot obtain them from China for your radar that was destroyed on the front line. Once you destroy the technology that the USA has, perhaps the only one of its kind in the world, reproducing it will not be child's play.

It will also be necessary to distribute critical raw materials in a balanced manner across production across the defense industry. Because this is directly related to the war strategy you will develop against the enemy. If you produce too much of something unnecessarily, you will waste the resources you have.

There is also a famous legend in World War II. Because the Nazi's army inventory was built by American companies. Are you 100% sure that this will happen this time? Because the Earth is much smaller now than it was 70 years ago. And the needs are now much more complex.

My own opinion is that if we have a 3rd world war within the short term, all that happens is the anglo-american world cements their new world order, with them at the top of everything.

And its quite convenient that the nations constantly cultivating the atmosphere of world war is predominantly the USA and a few other westerners. World war is no good for nearly every nation on earth, but it can be great for the USA. And remember the people at the stop who start these wars won't die in the wars, they wont be doing the fighting in the trenches.

The best thing right now for all competitors/rivals to buy their time and develop.
 

Bogeyman 

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My own opinion is that if we have a 3rd world war within the short term, all that happens is the anglo-american world cements their new world order, with them at the top of everything.

And its quite convenient that the nations constantly cultivating the atmosphere of world war is predominantly the USA and a few other westerners. World war is no good for nearly every nation on earth, but it can be great for the USA. And remember the people at the stop who start these wars won't die in the wars, they wont be doing the fighting in the trenches.

The best thing right now for all competitors/rivals to buy their time and develop.
No superpower existing today can survive in a world where ICBMs are spent like coins.
 

GoatsMilk

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No superpower existing today can survive in a world where ICBMs are spent like coins.

They will survive much better then Turks or Arabs will or the wider Islamic world for that matter.

But like I said in a world war the americans will have the opportunity to create their "new world order" and in it things like Islam will be outlawed. They've moved towards the narrative of "collective punishment" tomorrow that's going to expand mean the common Muslim. And if you take the time to read the books our enemies put out this new world order is a very real ambition.

We can dream for the unexpected to happen, the greatest power on earth who already won two world wars somehow loses the 3rd, but its more likely they win a 3rd one.

If Turks want to survive the next 100 years we got pick our battles wisely and keep a low profile. Things have been ramping up against Muslims these past 25 years and it doesn't take a genius to see where it will be 25 years from now.
 

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The highly qualified inventories of armies survive with their ability to replace losses on the front line. Japan's most advanced cruisers in World War II had to complete the war far away from the front line due to lack of fuel.

The most important thing to understand here is that logistics needs will flow to the front without interruption.

However, we no longer live in the times of World War II. The USA cannot produce hundreds of warplanes in 1 month. It cannot produce dozens of warships in a month.
Unlike World War II, the most visible issue of today's reality in the defense industry will be the mass production of subcomponents. Because here, critical raw materials will need to be procured, stocked and mass produced with economy of scale. Here, procuring the raw material is a separate problem, and protecting that raw material from sabotage or covert attacks by China or Russia will be a another problem.
But let the USA have as much money as it wants. If you are dependent on China for rare earth elements, you cannot obtain them from China for your radar that was destroyed on the front line. Once you destroy the technology that the USA has, perhaps the only one of its kind in the world, reproducing it will not be child's play.

It will also be necessary to distribute critical raw materials in a balanced manner across production across the defense industry. Because this is directly related to the war strategy you will develop against the enemy. If you produce too much of something unnecessarily, you will waste the resources you have.

There is also a famous legend in World War II. Because the Nazi's army inventory was built by American companies. Are you 100% sure that this will happen this time? Because the Earth is much smaller now than it was 70 years ago. And the needs are now much more complex.
The weapons systems that the United States would be using in support of Israel are nowhere close to those that they are currently sending Ukraine to ensure the destruction of the Russian land army. USA is sending, largely obsolete, weapons that were designed to fight the cold war. Most of them have already been replaced, or in the process of replacement. They've sent very, very few air launched ordinance. Assets from their Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps have barely been touched in their support of Ukraine. Even their 155mm artillery shells that everyone is saying they're so short on, aren't actually at any risk of running out. They're running low on SURPLUS shells after sending 2 million to Ukraine. They refuse to send anything from the strategic stockpile required for their own military to fight a full out war. They have millions more shells in their exiting inventories.

Make absolutely no mistake about it, USA, has more than enough military capability left, in support of Israel, to repel an attack on the Jewish State. That's true even if multiple Arab / Middle Eastern countries "team up" on Israel. The Israelis can field an army plenty big enough to repel most attacks, combined with help from U.S. Special Forces, the Marine Corps and select elements of the Army stationed in Europe for the purpose of quick reaction (i.e. the 101st Airborne Division). The combination of the IAF and the air wing of two carrier fleets, as well as U.S. Air Force strike fighters in Europe, is more than enough to wreck the combine air forces of those that would seek to destroy Israel. I would turn into "death from above", with Israel fighting the bloody ground war.
 

YeşilVatan

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The weapons systems that the United States would be using in support of Israel are nowhere close to those that they are currently sending Ukraine to ensure the destruction of the Russian land army. USA is sending, largely obsolete, weapons that were designed to fight the cold war. Most of them have already been replaced, or in the process of replacement. They've sent very, very few air launched ordinance. Assets from their Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps have barely been touched in their support of Ukraine. Even their 155mm artillery shells that everyone is saying they're so short on, aren't actually at any risk of running out. They're running low on SURPLUS shells after sending 2 million to Ukraine. They refuse to send anything from the strategic stockpile required for their own military to fight a full out war. They have millions more shells in their exiting inventories.

Make absolutely no mistake about it, USA, has more than enough military capability left, in support of Israel, to repel an attack on the Jewish State. That's true even if multiple Arab / Middle Eastern countries "team up" on Israel. The Israelis can field an army plenty big enough to repel most attacks, combined with help from U.S. Special Forces, the Marine Corps and select elements of the Army stationed in Europe for the purpose of quick reaction (i.e. the 101st Airborne Division). The combination of the IAF and the air wing of two carrier fleets, as well as U.S. Air Force strike fighters in Europe, is more than enough to wreck the combine air forces of those that would seek to destroy Israel. I would turn into "death from above", with Israel fighting the bloody ground war.
An honest threat assessment of this situation would validate your points. Even if Israel has problems regarding command or 'staying power', they still have a carrier group to depend on if things go awry. US may give them a slap on the wrist for bombing civilians, but no american president can afford a collapsing Israeli front. They have the power to do what we did to Assadist forces a few years ago, with much more destructive force. I don't think a Hezbollah offensive can achieve much because of this.

The problem is unconventional means of destruction, mainly ballistic missiles of Iran. They produce those like fruit loops. Hezbollah has a hefty amount, and Iran itself has considerable long range missile inventory in their home territory. I like to mock Iranian online animation and threat corps, but Iranian missiles are no joke. I'd argue it's the only no joke part of Iranian military. What if they fire a few over Iraq, then westerners bomb Iran proper as a response and it spirals from there?

What if they attack from Syria and westerners buff up their support for YPG/PKK? I'm heartbroken about civilians and all that, but that is one of my main fears. This BS would put us Turks in collision course with USA much sooner than previous state of affairs.

This shitshow has to end. I just dn't know how.
 

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The weapons systems that the United States would be using in support of Israel are nowhere close to those that they are currently sending Ukraine to ensure the destruction of the Russian land army. USA is sending, largely obsolete, weapons that were designed to fight the cold war. Most of them have already been replaced, or in the process of replacement. They've sent very, very few air launched ordinance. Assets from their Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps have barely been touched in their support of Ukraine. Even their 155mm artillery shells that everyone is saying they're so short on, aren't actually at any risk of running out. They're running low on SURPLUS shells after sending 2 million to Ukraine. They refuse to send anything from the strategic stockpile required for their own military to fight a full out war. They have millions more shells in their exiting inventories.

Make absolutely no mistake about it, USA, has more than enough military capability left, in support of Israel, to repel an attack on the Jewish State. That's true even if multiple Arab / Middle Eastern countries "team up" on Israel. The Israelis can field an army plenty big enough to repel most attacks, combined with help from U.S. Special Forces, the Marine Corps and select elements of the Army stationed in Europe for the purpose of quick reaction (i.e. the 101st Airborne Division). The combination of the IAF and the air wing of two carrier fleets, as well as U.S. Air Force strike fighters in Europe, is more than enough to wreck the combine air forces of those that would seek to destroy Israel. I would turn into "death from above", with Israel fighting the bloody ground war.


You mean like in the afganistan theatre do ?? Ok , we get it .... 👍👍
 

Gary

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I felt sad for all the families wiped out inside those buildings, but those are now free makeshift bunkers for defensive positions.

You cannot destroy an already destroyed building.

F84nJxPW4AE9fvW
 

YeşilVatan

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I felt sad for all the families wiped out inside those buildings, but those are now free makeshift bunkers for defensive positions.

You cannot destroy an already destroyed building.

F84nJxPW4AE9fvW
A destroyed building is much easier to bomb because you will be sure no civilians are inside.
 

Gary

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A destroyed building is much easier to bomb because you will be sure no civilians are inside.
Not quite, in Stalingrad whole blocks of apartments were levelled by Luftwaffe carpet bombings and the Soviet simply dig those rubbles and build an improvised fighting position.

In Monthe Cassino its the German turn to fight from those rubbles.

Because the structure no longer stands, they don't need to mind about an entire squad trapped inside the buildings if the enemy decide to collapse it.

Repeated artillery attacks on assaulting allied troops caused their leaders to incorrectly conclude that the abbey was being used by the Germans as an observation post, at the very least. Fears escalated, along with casualties, and despite evidence, it was marked for destruction. On 15 February 1944, Allied bombers dropped 1,400 tonnes of high explosives, causing widespread damage.[5] Fallschirmjäger forces occupied the area and established defensive positions amid the ruins.
 

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USA 🇺🇸 officially requested $105 Billion usd from Congress, most of which will be spent ion military support for their Allies. $14.3 Billion usd is earmarked to bolster Israel's military capability. By comparison $61 Billion usd is being requested to support Ukraine's struggle for survival vs Russia.

For those thinking that USA was going to trend away from supporting Ukraine and merely support Israel, that's not the case at all. When passed, expect the $14.3 billion usd funding for Israel to consist mostly of air ordinance, aerial munitions, intelligence, etc. Obviously, USA isn't going to put conventional boots on the ground unless another country jumps into the war on thr side of Hamas.

 

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Are chemical weapons WMD's ? Saddam fired scuds at Israel once too.
Do you want scientific answer or political?
Why do you think WMD is Chemical Weapons?

If you have any Logical and Objective answer then please reply. Otherwise it's just west of time.
 

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