Live Conflict Israel-Palestine War|Regional Escalations

[Scott Summers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838701715287068915

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838625764016607323

 

[Scott Summers]

Bye bye Kibbutz.

No more free slaves at work on stolen ground.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838576604303294493

 

[Scott Summers]

And they run, like they did between 1933 and 1939 in Germany.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838715632184869303

 

[contricusc]

and why Iran who is trying to wait until 2026 to potentially become a nuclear power and through that deterrence force an acceptance of its reintegration into the banking and finance system of the world, is trying to avoid a war scenario.

How will becoming a nuclear power help Iran with ”acceptance of its reintegration into the banking and finance system of the world”?

There are already two known nuclear powers, Russia and North Korea, which are both under heavy sanctions and practically decoupled from the financial system. If Iran becomes a nuclear power, they can say goodbye to any hope of reintegration into the global financial system.

 

[Scott Summers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838857952607744188

 

[Scott Summers]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838886780013080903

 

[Rooxbar]

How will becoming a nuclear power help Iran with ”acceptance of its reintegration into the banking and finance system of the world”?

There are already two known nuclear powers, Russia and North Korea, which are both under heavy sanctions and practically decoupled from the financial system. If Iran becomes a nuclear power, they can say goodbye to any hope of reintegration into the global financial system.

Iran, unlike North Korea and also Russia since the Minsk accords were trashed, has been in constant negotiations with the Western powers from the time of Khatami in the late 90s when they bricked their centrifuges willingly as they thought correctly they are prime target post-9/11 (not to mention Iran Contra affair). As per here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mossad_infiltration_of_Iranian_nuclear_archive), Iran was quite close to a bomb and they gave it willingly at the time to avoid a U.S. invasion.

Afterwards they were instrumental in both overthrowing Saddam and the Taliban governments, and collaborated with coalition forces massively. Since then they have also been in constant negotiations, e.g. during Ahmadinejad, who took a more hardline stance after Khatami's compromise didn't bring the promised fruits. His hardline stance (President's of Iran can only adopt a position after tacit approval by the Supreme leader, so in that sense the stance is always his), 2009 sanctions ensued which forced Iran's hands into the negotiating table; these negotiations resulted in a deal during Rouhani's reign called the JCPOA (colloquially, the Iran deal). After Trump left the deal, the European members of 5+1 were very keen on strengthening business ties with Iran in defiance of Trump's unilateral move. Since then, during Biden and Raisi era there has also been constant negotiations, as Iran demanded U.S. return to the deal, and U.S. demanding Iran prove they're abiding by the deal first in order for them to come back. Ensuing these talks, IAEI probes got underway and until Iran's involvement in Ukraine-Russia war made U.S. sour on the deal, a compromise was almost at hand.

Furthermore, Iran, unlike Russia, is in the FATF blacklist, so the reintegration alluded to is partly something Russia already has. Many people in our country comically talk about Turkey being sanctioned by Western countries, but they have no clue what sanctions look like. Iran is barely surviving by selling the free money it has in the shape of oil and gas to China with like 30% discount and through barter with China and through them with certain African and Latin American countries as they cannot use SWIFT either.

So yeah to reiterate, Iran is willing to negotiate and compromise and the sanctions on them are much more severe than Russia despite what numbers might indicate. Because of this, the deterrence of nuclear bombs and the lifting of the spectre of regime change, will strengthen their hands in negotiations massively.

 

[contricusc]

So yeah to reiterate, Iran is willing to negotiate and compromise and the sanctions on them are much more severe than Russia despite what numbers might indicate. Because of this, the deterrence of nuclear bombs and the lifting of the spectre of regime change, will strengthen their hands in negotiations massively.

I agree with what you said, except for the part where nuclear bombs will strengthen their negotiating hands.

The West is willing to negotiate with Iran with the purpose to keep it away from building nuclear weapons. If they get the nukes, why would the West negotiate with them anymore?

And they also dug themselves into a big hole with the weapons they provided to Russia against Ukraine. Europeans will be less eager to be friendly with Iran now.

The only realistic chance Iran has to rejoin the global financial system is for regime change to happen.

 

[Rooxbar]

I agree with what you said, except for the part where nuclear bombs will strengthen their negotiating hands.

The West is willing to negotiate with Iran with the purpose to keep it away from building nuclear weapons. If they get the nukes, why would the West negotiate with them anymore?

And they also dug themselves into a big hole with the weapons they provided to Russia against Ukraine. Europeans will be less eager to be friendly with Iran now.

The only realistic chance Iran has to rejoin the global financial system is for regime change to happen.

Nope, if anything it's been the U.S. which has emphasized for decades that Iran needs to come to the negotiating table regarding their proxies, their missile program, their blocking of the golden crescent opium trade (well ok they don't say that part out loud), their black market weapons trade, etc. etc. If anything it's been Iran who has been stubborn about keeping the negotiation strictly about the nuclear program; this is a well-known fact, I can send you tens of articles and news pieces in Farsi, Arabic and naturally English showcasing the attitude of both sides wrt the content of the negotiations.

You are correct that it seems they have dug themselves further with their recent attitude but as it's been shown in history again and again, you never know wrt the attitudes of blocks concerning adversarial states; things can take a heel turn real fast. Regime change in Iran is impossible for the coming decades, as anyone with a deeper knowledge of Islamic Republic's structure will know; the only realistic thing is for it to balkanize and lose parts in Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, Khuzestan and Baluchistan regions to be left with a central Iranian plateau rump state.

 

[contricusc]

Regime change in Iran is impossible for the coming decades, as anyone with a deeper knowledge of Islamic Republic's structure will know; the only realistic thing is for it to balkanize and lose parts in Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, Khuzestan and Baluchistan regions to be left with a central Iranian plateau rump state.

That’s sad, because regime change was the only good option for Iran. As long as the current regime remains in charge, Iran will be a pariah state under sanctions and poor. There is no way the current regime can achieve anything good for the country. It’s the same with countries like Cuba, Venezuela or North Korea. The current regimes are incapable of doing anything good.

 

[Rooxbar]

That’s sad, because regime change was the only good option for Iran. As long as the current regime remains in charge, Iran will be a pariah state under sanctions and poor. There is no way the current regime can achieve anything good for the country. It’s the same with countries like Cuba, Venezuela or North Korea. The current regimes are incapable of doing anything good.

Yeah. And we like it to stay that way: doctrinaire, parochial and incompetent.

Relevant:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1840017051093483599

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

Iran is in an extremely tough spot. Worse than many of us realize.

If they don't respond Hezbollah could disintegrate. If they do respond then the regime itself will be at serious risk.

Decades of buildup for nothing.

 

[Ryder]

Iran is in an extremely tough spot. Worse than many of us realize.

If they don't respond Hezbollah could disintegrate. If they do respond then the regime itself will be at serious risk.

Decades of buildup for nothing.

They will only Attack Sunnis or attack Turkiye or Azerbaijan.

As a form of cope. When Turkiye Pummeled Hezbollah in Syria the Israelis also bombed Iranian and Hezbollah targets.

Iranians instead only attacked Turkiye. They will never respond against Israel because of the USA is behind them which would lead to a all out war. Russia, China and Iran know truly well not to mess with the Usa.

Iran will attack but it wont be Israel. But man seeing their own guy getting pummelled like that just like with Soleimani is not sitting well.

 

[SilverMachine]

Scott, post all of your racist horseshit in the one post, man, not like...six.

It's also easier for people to inevitably report it.

Also, Cyclops would disapprove of you bigtime. Yeesh.

 

[Iskander]

After the second American carrier strike group arrived in the region, Tehran's ayatollahs quietly removed the red flag of revenge. After the assassination of Nasrallah, Tehran this time decided to limit itself to raising the black flag of grief

 

[Ryder]

After the second American carrier strike group arrived in the region, Tehran's ayatollahs quietly removed the red flag of revenge. After the assassination of Nasrallah, Tehran this time decided to limit itself to raising the black flag of grief

Shias are telling me this another Karbala.

 

[Scott Summers]

Scott, post all of your racist horseshit in the one post, man, not like...six.

It's also easier for people to inevitably report it.

Also, Cyclops would disapprove of you bigtime. Yeesh.

Your 'anti-zemitizm'-meter is far overcharged.

Now it is even 'antizemitizm' when posting videos of Hezbollah rockets.

Heerre, moorre antizemitizm forr you, because Gazballa arre terroristz!

Kaboem! Bye Eliat!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1839027755716911334

 

[Scott Summers]

Traitors are worst than the enemy.

Lebanon is infested with shekel-loving traitors.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1838684496880648431

 

[Scott Summers]

Congratulations to the Iraqi resistance for sending a good night message to the Zio-nazi's.

You will have no place in this region. You will not live in peace. You will only suffer and find yourself constantly in a state of terror.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1839003850113519759

 

[Saithan]

Interesting stuff has been going on. Since Iran didn't do much and no response were given I guess it's proof of how much US presence is deterring them from acting.

That's the downside of having your economy and everything crippled to such a degree.

Hence why it is important to have a strong ally or support in times of adversaries.

I see what is going on in Libanon, Hizbollah etc. not so much as proof of Iran not being able to act, but that their hands are tied with the support they're giving Russia.

if as someone has mentioned the economic situation of Iran is daunting and their capabilities are limited. I would think they're focusing on what they can do in their immediate vicinity.

if Iran doesn't stand by Russia in these times, when will they stand by them.

Now even if Israel goes all bombing and what not, the peoples hatred is pretty solid, and someone else will continue the hizbollah stuff. So as I see it Iran is probably focusing on "Heartlands" of their interest of sorts.

And relying on that countries like Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan and KSA one way or another will be enough to prevent too big changes.

I'm sure there are other stuff worth mentioning, but that's kinda what I can think of.

I do however see that Israel and US would be very much interested in creating more Kurdistan around to try to get more allies that are reliant on their support, and who'll deliver the cannon fodder to keep the region in their control of sorts.