The Jews had only experienced independence twice before the creation of Israel. None of them exceeded 80 years.
The Israelis have a genuine fear of this. They call it the 'Eighth-decade curse'. And this is not some cringe belief that only a handful of minorities accept. Herzog himself acknowledges this.
5 months before the Oct 7th attack,
Israel has entered its greatest crisis after three generations. This happened to the USSR, Turkey, India and China – what happened to them, and can Israel survive?
www.jpost.com
This piece by JPost highlighted the cycle of a state within three generations. Seventy to 80 years, plus or minus two or three, has universally been considered the lifespan of three generations. Their sequence is thought to follow a regular pattern. The first generation creates, the second maintains, and the third or fourth destroys.
The writer noted that the current parallels of this are:
- USSR
- China
- India
- Turkiye
Noting that it took less than 3 generations for these countries to transform
- USSR from communism to capitalism
- China turns back to Mao-style rule after abandoning cultism under Deng
- Turkiye turns into an Islamic state
- India turns into a Hindu state
A different mix of reasons explains these events, but three appear everywhere: governance and leadership, the economy, and internal cohesion.
Now let's talk Israel :
A. Governance and Leadership
- There is no legal time limit to an Israeli prime minister’s hold on office. This explains many of his political and personal choices. They are meant to guarantee the longest possible rule. When this coincides with proposals to reduce the power of the judiciary in favor of the executive branch, some fear that a door is opening to dictatorship or monarchy.
B. Economic power
- Economic power: Strategic power cannot be separated from economic power today. China is living proof. For Israel, economic power is its hi-tech and military innovation, which depend entirely on a hospitable international political, financial and export environment – and on advanced scientific and technological prowess at home. Diminishing one and/or the other could jeopardize Israel’s survival.
Now fast forward to 2024, we know thanks to the war, the Israeli high-tech sector has slumped. Mainly due to the fact that those workers who work at big tech are mobilized to the war in Gaza.
While their tourism sector has also been hit very hard, with cancellations of flights to Israel and general boycott.
Owner of East Jerusalem’s hugely popular Sarwa Street Kitchen has lost 19 family members in Gaza and faces closure.
www.aljazeera.com
C. National Cohesion
- National cohesion: In just over 20 years, the Haredim will constitute more than 30% of Israel’s population and Arabs will account for more than 20% – together more than the 40% of non-Russians who drove the USSR to extinction. Comparing anti-Zionist haredim to anti-Soviet Ukrainians, Lithuanians and other break-away nationalists may seem far-fetched. What makes them comparable is their alienation from the nation-state in which they were or are living.
- Most Arabs will work and will likely face no obligation to help defend the country. This is similar to the 18-20% Muslim population in India who are not regarded as a major threat to cohesion. Israel’s national cohesion can be preserved if a minority of citizens, haredim, who demand exemption from laws governing the majority, does not exceed much more than 10%, which is the current situation.
- Israel can cope. But it cannot cope with a population that comprises more than 30% that doesn’t serve in the army. If Haredi participation in the nation’s economy and defense does not increase much faster than usual, Israel will likely lack the economic, scientific and military strength – and perhaps even the moral willpower – to confront the challenges it will have to face when it approaches its 100th birthday.
Fast forward to 2024. Regarding Haredim, there has been a proposal by Ben Gvir to force them to serve in the army, this seeds trouble
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a coalition crisis over drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, an intractable battle at the heart of the state’s identity that has been sharpened by the country’s personnel needs during the war with Hamas.
In a decision that has deep ramifications for society — not to mention Netanyahu’s government — Israel’s Supreme Court on Thursday ordered the suspension of state subsidies for ultra-Orthodox Jews studying in yeshivas instead of doing military service. It came just days ahead of an April 1 deadline for the government to agree on a new law to allow the community to avoid being drafted.
Cohesion and the social contracts between the Jews and the Zionist government are in trouble here as the Haredim ahs always been exempt from military service
There have been calls for a ceasefire, but IMO It is in my best interest of mine that this war continues to be prolonged as long as possible because it will stretch the Israelis to the limit.
We know that in a month, the Passover will start. The Passover will mark the perfect date for the temple institute to actually execute their plan to sacrifice the Red Heifer and build their temple in the Aqsa compound. If it turns out this way, this will provoke the anger of approximately 1.5 billion Muslims worldwide, and this is beneficial because we need to make a narrative.
This one-day-old article reported that Israel is preparing a huge sacrificial altar in Jerusalem for this event.
Once the Passover ritual happens, and the demolition of Aqsa mosque starts, the Israelis' main backers, the Americans will have to stave off multiple high-level diplomatic pressures, on top of that Biden himself will have to worry if he's going to be elected, and from the look of it he will start to act very erratic to secure his re-election. A bad precedent to the political process of that country.
The bonus of this is also the final nail in the coffin for any sort of normalization between the remaining Muslim states.
Arab and Muslim communities say they’ll ‘punish’ Biden even if it means Democrats lose in November.
www.aljazeera.com
Meanwhile, on top of this, they still have to show their commitment to their European partners concerning Ukraine's fight with Russia which has turned into the worst since last Summer.
And then there's the China fight, we don't know if the Chinese suddenly become confident that the Americans are in no position to fight China, or an erratic and losing Biden decided to copy Zelensky's playbook by going to war and start martial law to extend his presidency. Either way not a good choice.
Now America and what happens in the Pacific is important, lose America, and Israel lose like 70% of its power. We know that war for Taiwan is not a matter of if but when. A recent estimate puts it at around 2025-2027, this is the timeline where China is at its strongest and the US comparatively is at its weakest. Another clue as to when will the war start, people need to note that Xi Jinping just like Putin in regards to Ukraine, would not let anyone but him have the honor of unifying China. And this guy has like 5-10 years MAX to order the start of the unification war before he gets too old to actually have a say.
A devastated America as a result of war with a country the size of China, could prove the opening that we're looking for to end the Haram state once and for all.
So you put together :
A. Israel's own mounting internal problems
B. Israel's backers mounting problems trying to babysit Israel
C. Competing interests that stretch the U.S ability to play strategically and decide which is their priority (due to lobby)
And maybe Israel is right to fear if their existence will pass 80 (add one or two) years.
OTOH, Muslims don't need to care much about what happens in China, Ukraine etc. The population is exploding, wait a few years and Islam will be the human race's main religion. The base that made up the population of Palestine (Muslims and Arabs) stretches from the Atlantic (Morocco) to the Pacific (Indonesia). This are all potential energy that Israel knows will come to their door sooner or later.
If America loses their 'rule based order' hegemony due to the war. Then the potential of the 1.5B (and growing) Muslim population will automatically be diverted towards Israel with no one holding it back like in the good times (1990s-2023).
So I'm excited and I hope you all are excited as well.
