My honest assessment is that this operation was really rushed. Militarily, the buildup was good. Bombing campaign was tactically successful (except for the kids school). It seems the administration 'glitched' into ignoring the Iranian capability to close the strait, and this is the root of the diplomatic problems. The diplomacy side of things was greatly neglected. There was no coalition building. No international law justification. In EU4 terms, Trump No CB declared on Iran.
Anyone who depends on energy from Hormuz is told to eat shit.
- Europeans are pretty passive and lethargic but they are just humiliated by US leadership and I think this will have consequences in the future. Italians just got into a row with Israelis.
- East Asians are panicking like crazy because they actually use the energy to build stuff, that's how their economy works. South Korean officials have been feuding with Israelis on twitter. I imagine Japanese decision makers are chainsmoking as their fuel storage strategy can only carry them for a few months more.
- Gulf arabs are at the mercy of Iranians because if they decide to blow up the wells, there is nothing to realistically stop them from doing so. US prioritized air defence munitions away from them and to Israelis (lol).
- Chinese are doing some shady stuff like sending a spy ship to the area and landing a cargo plane in Tehran. idk what happens with those but I think Iranian strikes have increased in efficiency compared to 12 day war.
Diplomatically, this war is a disaster for the US.
The point of no return is the global oil supply. If the oil wells are rendered inoperable for an extended period of time (think a few years), then the global economy has to adjust and this will send shock after shock to the US centric global finance infrastructure. My guess is it will cause a global depression.
So, why did US attack in this specific time? My guess is it's something to do with Bibi's political position, as well as Israel losing its grasp on the US public support. They decided to just go with it because they wouldn't be able to again.
I'm curious if they can turn the public opinion around. It seems impossible now. If the economy goes the way it goes, it will get a lot worse. Remember, Israeli state's survival is not determined in the ruins of Gaza or skies above Iran. It is determined at the American ballot.
