"In such a situation, whether the Russians will negotiate or not, in other words, their attitude towards Turkey's actions on the YPG/PKK is very clear in retrospect. The Russians did not negotiate over the territories they claimed for the YPG/PKK and always pointed to strategic points for the US.
The question is whether this situation will turn into a long-term policy tool for Russia that will make Turkey, which has unstable relations with the West, uneasy along its southern border.
In 2020 the autonomy document was announced by the YPG/PKK in Moscow. If the plan of cooperation with Damascus in exchange for the YPG/PKK's autonomy in certain areas, which was frequently emphasized by Russian officials, is implemented, Turkey's chances of operation in Syria will seriously diminish.
As it will be remembered, Mazlum Abdi stated in an interview that they have no reservations about the YPG/SDF being a component of the regime's army. This situation, defining the YPG/PKK as an official component of the Assad regime's army, means more protection for the YPG/PKK than that provided by the US through Russia.
However, to severely weaken a US-less YPG/PKK and keep issues negotiable through Ankara's policy of balance, the Russians could also choose to weaken the organization by turning a blind eye to Turkey's operations along the border in the depth of the M4 line and force it to make non-autonomous choices.
The issue here is what kind of added value Moscow hopes to realize.
Considering Russia's operations in Africa, which is likely to seek non-war solutions to protect its interests and presence in Syria by gaining a clear military superiority over the regime's opponents in Idlib and northern Aleppo, would solve the file by bringing a fait accompli political solution to the table.
Syria is one of the nodal points for Russia for its operations in Africa as well as in the Mediterranean. In this respect, the rapid demilitarisation of Syria is crucial for Moscow's vital operational chain.
In the case of a conflict, the risk Turkey will take will be higher than Russia. In this case, it is close to impossible to realize a political solution as Turkey and the opposition had hoped.
At this point, the only thing that can help Turkey and the Syrian opposition out of this bind is for Russia to get into serious trouble in Africa. While the Europeans are rapidly withdrawing from Africa in the face of the Russians, such a situation is not on the horizon.
I don't think the Americans have calculated the medium-long term consequences of this situation, which may lead to a NATO confrontation with China-Iran-Russia on Turkey's southern border."
