Live Conflict Military Operations Syria

Bozan

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Our SETA think tank member publishes the following in western think tanks:

It would be beneficial for decision-makers to work together to find a joint approach that would require the unification of Turkish and US spheres of influence in Syria. The United States could trade its support for the YPG in exchange for the Turkish army taking over most of the missions of US troops deployed in Syria and the preservation of Syrian Kurdish gains in the country. In this particular scenario, the United States would assign the task of managing ISIS prisoners and their families to local Sunni Arabs and Turkey, with the United States overseeing the process.

NE remains autonomous, (I assume that is what preserving Syrian Kurdish gains means) we protect it while removing PKK (again assumed).

The same guy recently published that a US withdrawal not coordinated with Erdogan is going to be very bad for Turkish calculations in Syria.
 

Sanchez

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NE remains autonomous, (I assume that is what preserving Syrian Kurdish gains means) we protect it while removing PKK (again assumed).

The same guy recently published that a US withdrawal not coordinated with Erdogan is going to be very bad for Turkish calculations in Syria.

This is the original plan from before 2016. Ypg continues to exist, cuts ties with KCK and becomes like KDP. It was always a bad plan because YPG is PKK, they have no bad blood between them. The moment someone else offered them a better plan, be is US or Russia, they took it, which made the 3 ops we did a necessity from our pov.

Erdogan government don’t think they have what it takes to create their own game in N Syria without third party help against Iran and Russia. This is the reason for this all delay, nothing else.
 

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This is the original plan from before 2016. Ypg continues to exist, cuts ties with KCK and becomes like KDP. It was always a bad plan because YPG is PKK, they have no bad blood between them. The moment someone else offered them a better plan, be is US or Russia, they took it, which made the 3 ops we did a necessity from our pov.

Erdogan government don’t think they have what it takes to create their own game in N Syria without third party help against Iran and Russia. This is the reason for this all delay, nothing else.
Well they have proven that they in fact do not have what it takes. How can one expect a group of people who cant even properly manage their own country be able to create a functioning proxy force, consisting of a bunch of groups who would otherwise be busy killing each other?
 

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Mis_TR_Like

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This is the original plan from before 2016. Ypg continues to exist, cuts ties with KCK and becomes like KDP. It was always a bad plan because YPG is PKK, they have no bad blood between them. The moment someone else offered them a better plan, be is US or Russia, they took it, which made the 3 ops we did a necessity from our pov.

Erdogan government don’t think they have what it takes to create their own game in N Syria without third party help against Iran and Russia. This is the reason for this all delay, nothing else.

It's a shame because TSK could wipe Syria clean if it wanted to. But we literally helped form one of the worst proxy forces imaginable. Neither their image, nor their fighting capabilities are good. Let's not forget that the CIA created FSA and egged us on to support them from the beginning.

Everyone from the middle east wants to move to Türkiye... So why not create a proxy force that aims to emulate Türkiye's laws and values? That way we can easily get rid of refugees and expand our area of influence. Instead we have tribal Islamists who can't stop fighting each other.

The US came from the other side of the planet and somehow convinced the world that YPG were the good guys. We have no one to blame but our government, what were these idiots doing the whole time?
 

YeşilVatan

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It's a shame because TSK could wipe Syria clean if it wanted to. But we literally helped form one of the worst proxy forces imaginable. Neither their image, nor their fighting capabilities are good. Let's not forget that the CIA created FSA and egged us on to support them from the beginning.

Everyone from the middle east wants to move to Türkiye... So why not create a proxy force that aims to emulate Türkiye's laws and values? That way we can easily get rid of refugees and expand our area of influence. Instead we have tribal Islamists who can't stop fighting each other.

The US came from the other side of the planet and somehow convinced the world that YPG were the good guys. We have no one to blame but our government, what were these idiots doing the whole time?
There's not enough people that wants to emulate the values of the republic who would also fight. Same thing with Kurds and Turkmen in North Iraq. I would also like to see Türkmeneli realized, but there's not enough Turkmen who would fight for it. This is true for all sides on this war. For Assad regime there is a manpower shortage, most of them are hezbollah or Shia militia from god knows where. YPG conscripts arabs like there's no tomorrow.

This is not a war like the world wars, where entire populations were mobilized with crushing drive and motivation. It's more like the 30 years war, where actors try to find or persuade people who are more or less mercenaries to do the fighting, with some ideology stuff sprinkled on top. Because people on all sides don't really believe the cause.
 

Kartal1

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Yeni Safak says the YPG flew 8 Iranian shahed-136 kamikaze drones in Euphrates shield yesterday, which sounds like bullshit
It's not bullshit. There is dangerous drone activity in the area, but we can't be sure it's the Shahed-136. It may be other UAV model.

Our SETA think tank member publishes the following in western think tanks:



NE remains autonomous, (I assume that is what preserving Syrian Kurdish gains means) we protect it while removing PKK (again assumed).

The same guy recently published that a US withdrawal not coordinated with Erdogan is going to be very bad for Turkish calculations in Syria.
Such a scenario can only be realized under certain conditions with the ENKS as "the main character". The problem is that the locals in the majority of Kurdish areas are PKK/Ocalan supporters. Some of the most influential family names in PKK originate in the north of Syria. This cancerous ideology is embedded in them, no matter if we talk about the old or new generation.

Nothing is irreversible, but it will take years and tons of work in order to bring the ENKS level of influence to where it should be and establish the needed conditions where we can simulate some kind of freedom so we can keep their mouths (and weapons) shut, while actually keeping their life support in our hands and creating conditions for our business in their areas. The problem is that PKK will not stand still and more than half of this battle depends on local support. Russia and Iran are also factors we can't ignore and they make the calculation even harder.
 

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For the second day in a row, a military convoy of 25+ vehicles belonging to the Turkish Armed Forces, consisting of APCs and tanks, entered the Bab al-Hawa border gate and deployed to the Turkish Armed Forces bases in Jabal az-Zawiyah, south of Idlib.

It is reported by local sources that TSK brought heavy EW reinforcements in order to create a counter-measure for the kamikaze drones that pose a threat to Turkish positions. It is reported that the EW systems brought to Idlib are of all kinds of levels, covering the whole spectrum of threats.

After the increased level of kamikaze drone threats that is due to the PKK intensifying their drone operations both in Iraq and in Syria, the footprint that points at similar origins and the earlier SAA FPV threats towards our bases in Idlib, looks like TSK took the right decision to deploy measures in order to counter these threats. Many drones were intercepted in Iraq in the last month due to the effective counter-measures deployed by TSK and I hope the same and even better result will be achieved in Syria.

 

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It's not bullshit. There is dangerous drone activity in the area, but we can't be sure it's the Shahed-136. It may be other UAV model.

Such a scenario can only be realized under certain conditions with the ENKS as "the main character". The problem is that the locals in the majority of Kurdish areas are PKK/Ocalan supporters. Some of the most influential family names in PKK originate in the north of Syria. This cancerous ideology is embedded in them, no matter if we talk about the old or new generation.

Nothing is irreversible, but it will take years and tons of work in order to bring the ENKS level of influence to where it should be and establish the needed conditions where we can simulate some kind of freedom so we can keep their mouths (and weapons) shut, while actually keeping their life support in our hands and creating conditions for our business in their areas. The problem is that PKK will not stand still and more than half of this battle depends on local support. Russia and Iran are also factors we can't ignore and they make the calculation even harder.

Wouldn't such snakepits not be a prime target for Intelligence/underground criminal extension units ? I mean, why allow masterminds of such ideology to draw breath ?
 

Kartal1

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Wouldn't such snakepits not be a prime target for Intelligence/underground criminal extension units ? I mean, why allow masterminds of such ideology to draw breath ?
It is, but what we can target with these units are targets of big importance and more importantly members of the terrorist organization.

If we start targeting people because they support the established system we will never see the end of it.

The majority of population in the north of Syria is consisted of Kurds. Currently the situation is even worse as many Arabs and Kurds who don't support this ideology were forced to leave. Unfortunately we can't let these people out of the equation as they don't exist.

Currently what I think is that we should replace this radical ideology with something branded as Kurdish, but more moderate and the ENKS (KDP supported Kurdish party, opposition to PYD) can play a big role in this. Due to the fact that ENKS poses a threat to PYD they are being oppressed, attacked and killed. This is what we should have prevented. We can't get the time back and cry over what we could've or couldn't done so we should develop a new plan.

In my humble opinion what we can do is apply the same system in Syria as in Iraq. In Iraq we managed to put KDP and PKK in a state where they fight with each other and are on the brink of an open conflict. Due to the fact that ENKS is an extension of the Iraqi KDP we can convince KDP to assist us limit PYDs influence and present another Kurdish block (a political alternative), press them to comply with our terms and this will be a win-win. In the face of KDP we got the perfect key to the social engineering console of the Kurds in Iraq and Syria. We just have to use it responsibly and ensure balance between power and dependence (to us).

Basically we should strengthen the position of ENKS using KDPs money, reestablish the ENKS armed wing (Rojava Peshmerga) with KDP's help which would protect ENKS areas from PYD with KRG and Turkish guarantees, develop a high quality psychological warfare and propaganda in order to further amplify the ENKS's stance and create distrust in PYD (there are many things we can use), create radio broadcasts and other media in order to ensure that ENKS is heard where it needs to be heard, develop the intelligence network in PYDs administrative wing so we can gather information about non-ethical practices, fraud and corruption which we will show to the people of the north of Syria.

Long story short, we should aim at replacing the current ideology with a more moderate one and work it from there because it is unrealistically to think that the locals will miraculously drop support for PYD while the region is carrying symbolic importance for the PKK and PKK has deep rooted traditions there. Step by step.

Note that what I say doesn't include the factors of Trump, Russia and Iran so it carries little to no importance and is based just on internal processes within the society in the north of Syria and wishful thinking. I still think we may have a chance to implement part of this concept, but it depends on the US withdrawal and what will be the power of Russia and Iran in these areas.

The situation is very, very hard to predict currently and this is why our strategists should be ready with plans and concepts for every possible scenario, backed by the realistic estimation of our capabilities.
 

Kartal1

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For the third day in a row, a large military convoy belonging to the Turkish Armed Forces entered the Bab al-Hawa border gate and deployed to bases in Idlib, Shanan, Farkiya, Serce, Ahsim and Bare.

Reinforcements also took place in the western countryside of Idlib. In total, the reinforcements took place in the southeastern front line of Idlib and the western countryside.

10+ units of military equipment were sent yesterday in another batch out of the 25+ we talked about earlier.

 

Ryder

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There's not enough people that wants to emulate the values of the republic who would also fight. Same thing with Kurds and Turkmen in North Iraq. I would also like to see Türkmeneli realized, but there's not enough Turkmen who would fight for it. This is true for all sides on this war. For Assad regime there is a manpower shortage, most of them are hezbollah or Shia militia from god knows where. YPG conscripts arabs like there's no tomorrow.

This is not a war like the world wars, where entire populations were mobilized with crushing drive and motivation. It's more like the 30 years war, where actors try to find or persuade people who are more or less mercenaries to do the fighting, with some ideology stuff sprinkled on top. Because people on all sides don't really believe the cause.

Syrian Turkmens and the Iraqi Turkmens are too small in population to form their own states.

As much I want Turkmenli to be our neighbours and a new Turkic nation it will never happen.

Because the Arabs and the Kurds outnumber them. Not to mention secratarianism plays a role its hard to unite Sunni Iraqi Turkmens alongside Shia Iraqi Turkmens. The divide between is too big as much I want them put aside their differences it will never happen.

Only way Turks able to make TRNC because most of the population were Turkish Cypriots.

If Turkmenli happens then you will have more Arabs and Kurds than Turkmens. It will never work unfortunately.

For decades Turkiye respecting Iraq and Syria's territory was a mistake.
 

Bozan

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Türkiye-Russia cooperation on Syria​

Regarding cooperation between Ankara and Moscow on Syria, Fidan said it has ceased the war between the Assad regime and opposition forces, through the Astana format and other initiatives. "I highlighted this in my discussions with my Russian counterparts," Fidan said, adding that Türkiye thinks it is important for Syrians to return to their homes and that a unified Syria with its government and opposition forces will be an important actor in the fight against PKK terrorists.



Most actors in the SNA that are serious and not gangsters will view these statements as negative / betrayal.

This sounds like capitulation
 
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Kartal1

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- Will relations between Türkiye and Syria begin again?

President Erdoğan: There is no reason not to establish relationship. We have no interest in intervening in Syria's internal affairs. There were also times when we met as a family with Mr. Assad. There is absolutely no such thing as "it can never happen again" tomorrow. It may happen again.


After the border crossing between SNA and Assad territory, Abu Zendin was opened for trade, people connected to opposition groups stormed the border gate, the police left the area, the border door was closed again, and the people started to burn rooms in the border crossing.

 

Kartal1

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Very serious developments are unfolding in the north of Syria. I didn't posted as I wasn't thinking it may have some relationship, but look what our friend Barracuda is reporting.

Let's give a big update to the news with the latest developments. Russians established two bases in total in the Kobani region on June 13-14, in Bir Haso village near the Kara Kozak bridge and in Jabal Al-Isada village. More precisely, research has been done for the second base, and the base is planned to be built. Today, new reinforcements have been sent to the bases in the Kobani region via Sarrin. Weapons, ammunition, armored vehicles and dozens of personnel were included in the shipment. (On the 26th June a big TSK convoy crossed trough Karkamis and the units were deployed at the TSK points in Jarablus)

As additional news, it is reported by local sources that 60 military vehicles belonging to the Turkish Armed Forces yesterday and today huge military reinforcements consisting of logistics, weapons and special forces arrived both in Mürşitpınar opposite Kobani and along the border strip of the Kobani region. 0 images so far.


Claims made from local sources; Regime side believe that there may be a limited operation in Idlib and that this measure of the Russians is something to serve as a shield to the PKK.

The PKK members were a little confused, it was seen that there was a meeting with the Russians in Tel Rifat and the thugs were more or less cursing the Russians.

It was claimed that huge reinforcements were sent to Euphrates Shield's Azez and Al Rai and from there to unknown points (0 images).

The agreement which Turkiye and the Ruskies agreed upon (with Regime's knowledge) is that Tal Rifat and Manbij will be handed over to the Turkish Armed Forces-SNA, otherwise Turkiye will carry out an operation there, and this agreement will be made to ensure the return of at least some of the refugees or at least this is claimed by Opposition and PKK sources.

It is said that since Tal Rifat and Manbij areas are under Russian protection, there will be a handover and if there is no handover there will be a military operation. We have seen dozens of bluffs on the field by the Turkish Armed Forces since 2019, and these may be new bluffs.

 

Kartal1

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According to local sources, HRE/PKK terrorists in Tel Rifat began mobilization in coordination with Iranian-backed militias.

It is said that terrorists sent rocket/GRAD vehicles and many Toyota technicals to the Al Bab front line. According to local sources, HRE/PKK terrorists are deployed in Sheikh İsa and Shaale villages and the villages on the Meryemin line (Malikiye-Sorhane) in coordination with Iranian-backed militias.
 

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