But as I see it. We’re not making progress with our plans for how we want Syria to develop. While US and YPG on the other hand make progress for their plans. In other words as I see it their progress is sustainable. Russia neither is in a sustainable position, but it’s better than ours. So I don’t see our hand as anything but a losing hand.
Well, I am not sure if there are any concrete steps that we plan on doing of this moment. The way I see it, there is no way we get victorious from all this mess. The best we can do is minimize the damage done.
In order to understand the position of the US and Russia in the way of bilateral agreements and understanding with Turkiye in Syria.
The US tries to legitimize its presence as a force that is fighting DEASH together with the SDF. There is still significant presence in the Badia desert, there are still issues like the Al-Hol camp and Deir Ez-Zor. The problem is that DEASH will not be totally destroyed. Currently they are very active and are wrecking havoc over the Regime. When it comes to Deir Ez-Zor they are still active trough small networks, but the SDF in coordination with the US is doing the necessary to contain them. Take a look at how beautiful these sentences sound
. In fact what we see in Deir Ez-Zor is both DEASH, but also pressure against the local tribes (working with the IRGC) by labeling them as DEASH. So basically DEASH will never evaporate from there as long as false labeling exists. Prison breaks, riot within the Al-Hol camp are also a chance for an ISIS revival in the area. Just please when read this exact text try to read between the lines and you will understand what I am really talking about.
On the political side of things while the SDF made some progress, their whole system is more fragile than most of the people think. These elections etc will never have a real legitimacy and I don't even think they will hold them anytime soon. The only way the YPG can earn a certain level of legitimacy is trough Bafel Talabani in Iraq. We know that KDP and the Barzanis are not in a great shape so basically the throne in KRG is being prepared for the Talabanis. The way I see things is that there is a US-Iran struggle to win the love of the Talabanis as this may be critical in the future as trough Talabani and the SDF there is almost full control over the north of Iraq and the north of Syria. And while this is happening Bafel Talabani is continuing contacts with both traditionalists and reformists in the PKK represented by the new and popular YPG in Syria and his contacts of the traditionalist branch in Qandil.
I don't think the situation is going great for the US BTW. The US by the looks will be forced to leave Iraq and Syria very soon under the pressure of the IRGC and their related paramilitary force. I am trying to explain for a lot of time that the US presence right now is playing in our favor as there are two powers balancing each other, there is friction and we can get something out of this. As long as Iran and the US are concentrated on themselves we are okay, but the moment one of these two powers concentrates solely on Turkiye we got a very big problem. These two should be kept busy.
When we think of Russia we also have to take in account our relationship with them. There is a semi-successful de-escalation agreement and totally ridiculous security guarantees from their side while we are mostly abiding by these. Where is the problem here? The problem is that the Russia is there defining the position of the Syrian Regime to a big extend and the Syrian Regime doesn't distinguish between radical and moderate opposition forces, but puts every opposition faction and its political representation under the label "terrorists". So in order for any development to happen there we should meet the Regime together with Iran and Russia and decide who is terrorist and who is not. This will be very difficult process and I don't see how any positive development will come out of this. In case of a positive development the HRE, YPG, HTS and their political branches should be recognized as terrorist organizations, the Syrian Interim Government and the SNA should be the legitimized representative of the Syrian Opposition and all of the territory under the control of these organizations should be cleaned. An impossible scenario with the current dynamics.
The way I see it is that the US is a goner and the majority of these weapons we see will be left for the possible anti-Iranian/Regime, democratic rebellion (which will result in a total annihilation) after the US leaves, Russia is trying to protect its positions from our forces, consolidate its presence in the political life in Syria and is preparing for a possible standoff with Iran post Assad. Iran is currently tightening the grip in Syria, forcing US withdrawal in coordination with its servants in Iraq (a withdrawal form both Iraq and the Levant), taking the needed measures in order to tighten its grip around the political power in Syria, deals with the PKK and Talabani as representatives of the large Kurdish actors in the region, ensuring their continuous influence in KRG and the north of Syria, slowly, but surely choking us trough their paramilitary and political proxies in Iraq and Syria so they can get in a fully dominant position, leaving our projects on their mercy. Turkiye tries to abide by the rules, does some half assed moves that result in a couple weeks of tension that can be exploited, but is not exploited in the end. Doesn't have a clear roadmap of what is the end game in Syria (has the vision, but no proactive approach towards its fulfillment). Has a radical Islamist organization problem on which Turkiye's security in Syria is largely based on, has a separatist PKK problem extending trough the whole north of Syria to Iraq, millions of refugees that can not return to their lands. Turkiye's main proxy is based on a paramilitary force known for smuggling, child recruitment and other war crimes with little to none positive prospects despites the billions thrown in this project and all of the support initiatives. Basically Turkiye is waiting for a miracle from God trough which HTS can be dismantled without triggering a war between the HTS and SNA or a Regime invasion in Idlib and is also waiting for a miracle in which the situation is so bad that if a large scale operation is launched against HRE in their controlled areas on the west of Euphrates the Russians will not bomb us or if we launch an operation against the YPG on the east of Euphrates the US would say "Man, this was really nasty shit, so we will be abandoning them and not ruin your economy with two words on prime TV, we will also cooperate with you against DEASH". Prayers to God and wishful thinking is in the basis of our policies. Funny, but not really
We are in a kind of a stalemate or a check from which only Hakan Fidan with the generous help from Allah can rescue us. And I am still not very positive on this
