Live Conflict Military Operations Syria

[Kartal1]

Those who acted against the Turkish flag and the Turkish soldiers in Syria after the latest escalation are being identified and hunted one by one.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1808972041636434122

The escalation in Syria is very important both in terms of the falling masks of the people working for certain groups who are otherwise known as friendly, but also in order to understand HTS strategy in Turkish controlled areas and their propaganda.

We know that the main event that sparked the fire in Turkish controlled areas was the opening of some border crossings for a commercial trade with Assad. In order to amplify the effect of these protests another escalation was pushed in Idlib by HTS under the pretext of the tensions and escalation against Syrian refugees in Kayseri and other Turkish provinces after an event where a 5 year old girl was sexually abused.

After these two escalations took speed HTS swiftly moved in order to create a state of chaos and exploit it. It both activated its agents within the Syrian National Army and also sent undercover men tied to the HTS structure from Idlib in order to initiate provocations, take the focus out of the protests going on against Al-Julani and use the popular anger against Turkiye and present itself as a stabilizing factor afterwards, projecting force and authority.

HTS used saboteurs from the Manbij Brigade and Ahrar Awlan to initiate the clashes and the identities of their killed and wounded fighters are known.

HTS is a very serious organization. It has its powerful media and propaganda. Two of the people that were tasked with the media activities of HTS during the escalation were Shamil Al-Homsi who is taking the position of media intelligence officer and Muhammad Khaled Abu Zuraiq who is HTS intelligence officer who is also a cousin of an important figure under the command of the Assad Military Intelligence Chief General Luay Al-Ali. The Turkish flags at Bab As-Salama border crossing were lowered under the supervision of these two.

Shamil Al-Homsi

"Abu Islam Al-Daraawi", Muhammad Khaled Abu Zuraiq

Who were they tasked by? The answer will shock you.

The chief of media/propaganda operations of the HTS is Ahmed Muwaffaq Zaidan.

Who is Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan?​

Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan, identifying as a Syrian journalist supportive of the rebel cause, previously held the position of the Pakistani Bureau Chief for Al Jazeera. He has mainly reported on the Taliban and Al Qaeda throughout his career.

Which event made him rise to International fame?​

Zaidan rose to prominence in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks due to his unique access to al-Qaeda leadership. Notably, he covered the wedding of Osama bin Laden’s son, showcasing his proximity to the inner circles of the extremist group.

Additionally, Zaidan played a significant role during the Tora Bora bombing aftermath in October 2001. As the recipient of the first tape released by Bin Laden in response to the U.S. bombings, Zaidan’s coverage was broadcasted on Al Jazeera, contributing to his recognition as a journalist with unparalleled access to critical events. His encounter with Bin Laden in Kabul in November 2000, during which Bin Laden indirectly claimed responsibility for the USS Cole attack in Yemen, further solidified Zaidan’s unique position in reporting on key developments involving AL-Qaeda.

Allegations and Denials- USA’S NIA Hit List Candidate​

In 2015, Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan came under suspicion by the United States for alleged connections with both Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. This led to his inclusion in a government-compiled ‘Kill List’. It is noteworthy that this designation occurred before the administration of Donald Trump, based on available information and belief. Despite the change in administration, President Trump maintained Zaidan’s inclusion on the Kill List, reflecting a sustained concern regarding his perceived affiliations with the mentioned extremist groups.

Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan: Decoding Affiliations and a Journalist’s Denials

The website, Ikwansyria, is operated by the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, and he consistently contributes to this platform with his articles.

dfrac.org

I risk being boring once again. The organization HTS is the biggest danger for our strategy and operations in Syria. Don't be deceived by YPG's shiny look and the 4k documentaries. YPG is a laughful scum that would collapse in less than a month after the US abandon it. HTS is the organization that will create the real trouble for us.

 

[I_Love_F16]

Those who acted against the Turkish flag and the Turkish soldiers in Syria after the latest escalation are being identified and hunted one by one.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1808972041636434122

The escalation in Syria is very important both in terms of the falling masks of the people working for certain groups who are otherwise known as friendly, but also in order to understand HTS strategy in Turkish controlled areas and their propaganda.

We know that the main event that sparked the fire in Turkish controlled areas was the opening of some border crossings for a commercial trade with Assad. In order to amplify the effect of these protests another escalation was pushed in Idlib by HTS under the pretext of the tensions and escalation against Syrian refugees in Kayseri and other Turkish provinces after an event where a 5 year old girl was sexually abused.

After these two escalations took speed HTS swiftly moved in order to create a state of chaos and exploit it. It both activated its agents within the Syrian National Army and also sent undercover men tied to the HTS structure from Idlib in order to initiate provocations, take the focus out of the protests going on against Al-Julani and use the popular anger against Turkiye and present itself as a stabilizing factor afterwards, projecting force and authority.

HTS used saboteurs from the Manbij Brigade and Ahrar Awlan to initiate the clashes and the identities of their killed and wounded fighters are known.

HTS is a very serious organization. It has its powerful media and propaganda. Two of the people that were tasked with the media activities of HTS during the escalation were Shamil Al-Homsi who is taking the position of media intelligence officer and Muhammad Khaled Abu Zuraiq who is HTS intelligence officer who is also a cousin of an important figure under the command of the Assad Military Intelligence Chief General Luay Al-Ali. The Turkish flags at Bab As-Salama border crossing were lowered under the supervision of these two.

Shamil Al-Homsi

View attachment 69261

"Abu Islam Al-Daraawi", Muhammad Khaled Abu Zuraiq

View attachment 69262

Who were they tasked by? The answer will shock you.

The chief of media/propaganda operations of the HTS is Ahmed Muwaffaq Zaidan.

View attachment 69263
View attachment 69265

Who is Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan?​

Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan, identifying as a Syrian journalist supportive of the rebel cause, previously held the position of the Pakistani Bureau Chief for Al Jazeera. He has mainly reported on the Taliban and Al Qaeda throughout his career.

Which event made him rise to International fame?​

Zaidan rose to prominence in the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks due to his unique access to al-Qaeda leadership. Notably, he covered the wedding of Osama bin Laden’s son, showcasing his proximity to the inner circles of the extremist group.

Additionally, Zaidan played a significant role during the Tora Bora bombing aftermath in October 2001. As the recipient of the first tape released by Bin Laden in response to the U.S. bombings, Zaidan’s coverage was broadcasted on Al Jazeera, contributing to his recognition as a journalist with unparalleled access to critical events. His encounter with Bin Laden in Kabul in November 2000, during which Bin Laden indirectly claimed responsibility for the USS Cole attack in Yemen, further solidified Zaidan’s unique position in reporting on key developments involving AL-Qaeda.

Allegations and Denials- USA’S NIA Hit List Candidate​

In 2015, Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan came under suspicion by the United States for alleged connections with both Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. This led to his inclusion in a government-compiled ‘Kill List’. It is noteworthy that this designation occurred before the administration of Donald Trump, based on available information and belief. Despite the change in administration, President Trump maintained Zaidan’s inclusion on the Kill List, reflecting a sustained concern regarding his perceived affiliations with the mentioned extremist groups.

Ahmad Muaffaq Zaidan: Decoding Affiliations and a Journalist’s Denials

The website, Ikwansyria, is operated by the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, and he consistently contributes to this platform with his articles.

dfrac.org

I risk being boring once again. The organization HTS is the biggest danger for our strategy and operations in Syria. Don't be deceived by YPG's shiny look and the 4k documentaries. YPG is a laughful scum that would collapse in less than a month after the US abandon it. HTS is the organization that will create the real trouble for us.

Very interesting post ! So these HTS guys are supposed to be our ‘’allies’’ in Syria ? And we’re paying their salaries ? Or am I mixing with another group ?

 

[Ryder]

Very interesting post ! So these HTS guys are supposed to be our ‘’allies’’ in Syria ? And we’re paying their salaries ? Or am I mixing with another group ?

We use them against the assad regime and russia.

Turkiye is not paying them. Basically we leave them alone they leave us alone. Turkiye is not allies with them neither does hts see Turkiye as a ally.

But hts has been testing the waters and Turkiye warned them so many times you screw with us you are done.

Turkiye wants the HTS, Assad and Russia to weaken themselves in the long run.

 

[Saithan]

So we get free reign to deal with the troublemakers in return for allowing their command structure to live.

Is that how we're suppose to understand it ? If they're such a big danger how can it be that we haven't started cleaning up the command structure, the brains ?

 

[Kartal1]

Very interesting post ! So these HTS guys are supposed to be our ‘’allies’’ in Syria ? And we’re paying their salaries ? Or am I mixing with another group ?

HTS is the strongest group in Syria, based in Idlib. It is a terrorist organization. This is the ex Al-Qaeda or Al-Nusra. We are not paying or training them. Our proxies there are the Syrian National Army and compared to them SNA is way more moderate. The problem is that HTS has agents within SNA and trough these agents they carry out provocations.

So we get free reign to deal with the troublemakers in return for allowing their command structure to live.

Is that how we're suppose to understand it ? If they're such a big danger how can it be that we haven't started cleaning up the command structure, the brains ?

The problem how we deal with them is that firstly they are balancing factor.

With their number of more than 15.000 fighters they are a very big opposition force and we can't just deal with them due to the danger of Regime movement and the total collapse in Idlib.

The second problem is that their leader Al-Julani is a survivor. He is ready to deal with anybody and hit anybody so he can survive. We tried to remove him by planning a coup with his second in command Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani, serious part of the military commanders within HTS and one of his men responsible for the financing work and media, Abu Ahmed Zakkour. This adventure ended before it even started, Al-Qahtani was arrested and tortured, but due to public pressure he was released in the beginning of this year. He was later blown up in one of his places... As for Zakkour, HTS Intelligence tried to hijack him from Azez where he was taking refugee under the protection of Baqara tribe members. A couple men from his protection died and he was kidnapped. MIT and the military police in Operation Olive Branch area intercepted the HTS Intelligence convoy and took Zakkour by force. After that he was brought to Hawar Kilis (a MIT HQ) and was provided protection by Turkiye. He continued his propaganda on our side and disclosed many dirty stains of the HTS including how they planned bombings against SNA targets.

After this operation Turkiye conducted a couple of operations against HTS agents in our controlled areas resulting in the arrest and expelling of two groups if I am not wrong and one mainly HTS coalition being forced to split.

I think we will see interesting developments in the next month. While HTS is a big problem we also have a big problem with HTS agents within the SNA. I think we will be dealing with them first.

 

[Kartal1]

Erdoğan said to a group of journalists accompanying him during his visit to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan on Friday, "We can give an invitation to Bashar Assad together with Russian President Vladimir Putin."

According to information given to Middle East Eye by sources familiar with the matter, mediation efforts in Iraq led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shiite Sudani tried to persuade the Assad government to establish relations with Turkey and made significant progress.

A source close to the discussions said a senior Iranian official told his counterparts in Ankara last month that they, too, were pressuring Damascus to lift preconditions for dialogue with the Turkish government.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1809181824624549897

 

[Kartal1]

Interesting speculation by Mete Sohraroglu especially after the news that Iranian militias do not allow SAA access to many of their points in Aleppo

It was announced today that Luna Al Shibl, Bashar Assad's special advisor, died due to the injuries she received after a traffic accident near the capital Damascus on Tuesday.

I've been talking about it on TV for two days. In Damascus, Iran and Assad are waging a liquidation war against each other.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1809264793293046008

 

[Kartal1]

Another analysis comes from Huseyin Bozan, the President of the National Turkmen Coalition in Syria.

"How should we evaluate Iran's raid on the Republic Palace in Damascus, alleging espionage, and the assassination of Assad's advisor Luna Shibil, which was disguised as an accident? (The background of this is that people that were tasked by Luna Shibil are suspects allegedly connected to the President Raisi's helicopter crash, working for MOSSAD)

These days, when it is claimed that Turkiye and the Syrian Regime will meet in Baghdad, Iran's raid on Bashar Assad's palace in Damascus on the grounds of espionage and the accidental assassination of Assad's advisor should not be seen as independent of each other.

At a time when everyone was talking about the events in Turkiye and northern Syria, Iran gave a warning to Bashar Assad with the assassination of his advisor Luna Shibil and the raid on the Republic Palace!

Iran, disturbed by Turkiye's presence in Syria, wants Assad to stipulate the withdrawal of the Turkish Armed Forces from Syria as a precondition in the peace talks, because the presence of the Turkish Armed Forces in Syria poses a threat to Iran's presence in the country and its projects in the region.

Iran is also disturbed by the negotiations and agreements made between Turkiye and Russia on Syria. Iran knows that after the terrorist organization YPG/PKK is neutralized, it will be Iran's turn to leave the country.

The terrorist organization YPG/PKK, which sought different allies after the withdrawal of the United States during Operation Peace Spring, is holding secret meetings with Iran in Hasakah and Deir Ezzor. The common enemy of these secret allies, whose existence in Syria is interconnected is Turkiye.

If Syria is cleared of the terrorist organization YPG/PKK, Iran's presence in the country will also be in danger. That's why Iran wants Turkiye to withdraw from Syria.

With the raid of the Revolutionary Guards on the Republic Palace in Damascus after the assassination of Luna Shibil, Bashar Assad was given the message that if he moves towards the wrong way, it will end up the same as Shibil!"

x.com

x.com

This correspond with the latest analyses we also did on the situation between Iran and Turkiye in Syria and Iraq, but also with the latest reports of alleged Turkish-Russian agreements and the normalizing process between Turkiye and the Syrian Regime, the opening of the border gates between SNA and SAA territories for commercial trade. Looks like big changes are going on not only in the Turkish controlled areas in Syria, but also in Damascus.

I would like to mention something regarding HTS, but please take it as a pure conspiracy theory from me.

We mentioned earlier Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani and the coup in the work that was supported by us. Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani was known as a fierce Al-Qaeda opponent and he is one of the main reasons for the split between Al-Julani's HTS and Al-Qaeda in Syria, Hurras Ad-Deen.

Al-Qahtani started as an Islamic State in Iraq figure, moved to Syria and was one of the key figures in the establishing of the Al-Nusra after he started working directly with Ayman Al-Zawahiri. He was one of the leading figures to point at the thread of ISIS and In 2017 he started to show his dissatisfaction with Al-Qaeda. In 2018 according to an UN report HTS was still maintaining contacts with Al-Qaeda Central (Seif Al-Adl in Iran) and they even used Al-Qaeda explosives experts sent from Afghanistan against Ahrar Al-Sham (a Muslim Brotherhood jihadist organization) in their fight at the time.

In 2022 after the death of Ayman Al-Zawahiri he urged all Al-Qaeda branches to dissolve. As a reason he pointed out that the leader of Al-Qaeda, Seif Al-Adl is in Iran and Iran directs Al-Qaeda trough him. The latest proof for this statement is the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and especially Al-Qaeda in Yemen acting like a direct Iranian proxy, coordinating their actions with the Houthis, another Iranian proxy.

Al-Qahtani is known to have played an active role in the elimination of Hurras Ad-Deen (Al-Qaeda in Syria) trough his cooperation with the Coalition. He was being called out by Al-Qaeda as an US collaborator and eventually he was arrested by Al-Joulani later for "improper use of social media" due to his provocative posts and after that it was understood that he planned a coup against Al-Joulani with Turkish and Coalition support. He was later released after public pressure and blown up in his place in Idlib allegedly by HTS Intelligence.

Let's think about the picture for a moment.

What is the biggest factor that prevents Assad and moderate Opposition reconciliation? The radical groups. Who are the radical groups? The HTS.

What is the only reason Russia bombed Turkish controlled areas? The presence of HTS linked organizations like Ahrar Awlan. What will be the perfect pretext for an Assad offensive which will be supported by Russia on Turkish controlled areas? HTS presence.

Who is the biggest winner by Assad-Turkiye tension and the prevention of reconciliation? HTS, YPG and Iran.

What will happen if SNA and the Regime reconciliate? They will join forces to fight against radicals, stabilize the country, form a new national system without the need of HTS and Iran. Who are the radicals? HTS.

Who was the biggest opponent in HTS to Iran and Iranian controlled Al-Qaeda? Al-Qahtani. What happened to him? He was first arrested and then killed.

Why the Coalition supported a Turkish organized coup against Al-Joulani? Because it might sound crazy, but I think Joulani may still be in contact with Al-Qaeda's Seif Al-Adl and he may be playing together with Iran in order to degrade the moderate Opposition, make the reconciliation between Turkiye, SNA and Assad impossible, eventually capture the Turkish controlled areas in Syria and make the pretext for Assad offensive against our areas, destroy the sense of separation between the SNA and HTS for Russia. The Coalition maybe knew this and wanted to make a move towards the prevention of Iranian expansion trough HTS by installing a proxy figure like Al-Qahtani who would've most probably purged the radical elements of HTS, would've continued hunting ISIS and Al-Qaeda figures and would've moved towards merging with the SNA and forming an unified government for Turkish controlled areas and HTS controlled Idlib. From where do we know this? We know this due to his work on the field with the Turkish groups in the north of Syria trough Abu Ahmed Zakkour, who was also arrested by HTS, but later rescued by MIT. If Iran backed, false flag HTS expansion happens in the Turkish controlled areas this will eliminate Turkiye from the game and establish Iranian dominance in the whole Aleppo province just as in Aleppo city right now (even SAA is prohibited from entering Hezbollah/IRGC points at the moment). In return Joulani may be given the chance to escape and continue with his jihadi work, rejoin Al-Qaeda and operate just as Seif Al-Adl.

We can also see the malign intentions in the recent provocations. Just after the situation in Kayseri and the statements by Erdogan and Assad on negotiations, meeting and the opening of the border gates, we saw an unprecedented provocation against TSK and Turks in the region. Who were the first traitors to open fire against the TSK units? Reportedly Ahrar Awlan and the Manbij Brigade, in other words HTS. Who was the one directing and controlling the public response and propaganda? Ahmad Muwaffaq Zaidan who is allegedly closely connected to Al-Qaeda and in the same time is controlling the media operations of the HTS. I don't think everything is just a coincidence. I truly start to believe that all this may be an Iranian/Al-Qaeda game in order to prevent peace in Syria and firmly establish Iranian dominance.

Everything starts to be more complicated by the day and my only hope is that our strategists are not sleeping right now and I am not alone in the act of thinking about this issue at 5:30am in the morning...

 

[Bogeyman]

Lets be honest here they only became loyal overtime because Syria will never get Hatay back.

When the Turks took Hatay majority of the Syrians opposed the takeover including the Alawites which you say are loyal to Ataturks principles.

Remember they opposed the takeover from the start. Deep down every Syrian harbours a grievance against Turkiye because of 1939. They havent got it out of their national conscious.

At the same Turkiye is a better place to live than Syria. Hence why they wont make that mistake of being separatists.

Turkey made a mistake by sacrificing Syria during World War I. I think those Arab nationalists should be thankful that they were left with a handful of land. If we had the chance, the Qamishli-Aleppo-Latakia line could have remained in our hands by now.

 

[Ryder]

Turkey made a mistake by sacrificing Syria during World War I. I think those Arab nationalists should be thankful that they were left with a handful of land. If we had the chance, the Qamishli-Aleppo-Latakia line could have remained in our hands by now.

They rebelled which led to the Ottoman army withdrawing.

Those cities all rose up in revolt at our worst time.

In the end the Allies marched into Syria like the British and the French. Either way Arab nationalists are pretty proud about their deeds same with Serbs who are proud of Gavrilo Princip firing the bullet.

 

[Bogeyman]

They rebelled which led to the Ottoman army withdrawing.

Those cities all rose up in revolt at our worst time.

In the end the Allies marched into Syria like the British and the French. Either way Arab nationalists are pretty proud about their deeds same with Serbs who are proud of Gavrilo Princip firing the bullet.

History could have been written very differently, actually. But never mind. There's no need to dig too much into it.

 

[Anastasius]

Another analysis comes from Huseyin Bozan, the President of the National Turkmen Coalition in Syria.

"How should we evaluate Iran's raid on the Republic Palace in Damascus, alleging espionage, and the assassination of Assad's advisor Luna Shibil, which was disguised as an accident? (The background of this is that people that were tasked by Luna Shibil are suspects allegedly connected to the President Raisi's helicopter crash, working for MOSSAD)

These days, when it is claimed that Turkiye and the Syrian Regime will meet in Baghdad, Iran's raid on Bashar Assad's palace in Damascus on the grounds of espionage and the accidental assassination of Assad's advisor should not be seen as independent of each other.

At a time when everyone was talking about the events in Turkiye and northern Syria, Iran gave a warning to Bashar Assad with the assassination of his advisor Luna Shibil and the raid on the Republic Palace!

Iran, disturbed by Turkiye's presence in Syria, wants Assad to stipulate the withdrawal of the Turkish Armed Forces from Syria as a precondition in the peace talks, because the presence of the Turkish Armed Forces in Syria poses a threat to Iran's presence in the country and its projects in the region.

Iran is also disturbed by the negotiations and agreements made between Turkiye and Russia on Syria. Iran knows that after the terrorist organization YPG/PKK is neutralized, it will be Iran's turn to leave the country.

The terrorist organization YPG/PKK, which sought different allies after the withdrawal of the United States during Operation Peace Spring, is holding secret meetings with Iran in Hasakah and Deir Ezzor. The common enemy of these secret allies, whose existence in Syria is interconnected is Turkiye.

If Syria is cleared of the terrorist organization YPG/PKK, Iran's presence in the country will also be in danger. That's why Iran wants Turkiye to withdraw from Syria.

With the raid of the Revolutionary Guards on the Republic Palace in Damascus after the assassination of Luna Shibil, Bashar Assad was given the message that if he moves towards the wrong way, it will end up the same as Shibil!"

x.com

x.com

This correspond with the latest analyses we also did on the situation between Iran and Turkiye in Syria and Iraq, but also with the latest reports of alleged Turkish-Russian agreements and the normalizing process between Turkiye and the Syrian Regime, the opening of the border gates between SNA and SAA territories for commercial trade. Looks like big changes are going on not only in the Turkish controlled areas in Syria, but also in Damascus.

I would like to mention something regarding HTS, but please take it as a pure conspiracy theory from me.

We mentioned earlier Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani and the coup in the work that was supported by us. Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani was known as a fierce Al-Qaeda opponent and he is one of the main reasons for the split between Al-Julani's HTS and Al-Qaeda in Syria, Hurras Ad-Deen.

Al-Qahtani started as an Islamic State in Iraq figure, moved to Syria and was one of the key figures in the establishing of the Al-Nusra after he started working directly with Ayman Al-Zawahiri. He was one of the leading figures to point at the thread of ISIS and In 2017 he started to show his dissatisfaction with Al-Qaeda. In 2018 according to an UN report HTS was still maintaining contacts with Al-Qaeda Central (Seif Al-Adl in Iran) and they even used Al-Qaeda explosives experts sent from Afghanistan against Ahrar Al-Sham (a Muslim Brotherhood jihadist organization) in their fight at the time.

In 2022 after the death of Ayman Al-Zawahiri he urged all Al-Qaeda branches to dissolve. As a reason he pointed out that the leader of Al-Qaeda, Seif Al-Adl is in Iran and Iran directs Al-Qaeda trough him. The latest proof for this statement is the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and especially Al-Qaeda in Yemen acting like a direct Iranian proxy, coordinating their actions with the Houthis, another Iranian proxy.

Al-Qahtani is known to have played an active role in the elimination of Hurras Ad-Deen (Al-Qaeda in Syria) trough his cooperation with the Coalition. He was being called out by Al-Qaeda as an US collaborator and eventually he was arrested by Al-Joulani later for "improper use of social media" due to his provocative posts and after that it was understood that he planned a coup against Al-Joulani with Turkish and Coalition support. He was later released after public pressure and blown up in his place in Idlib allegedly by HTS Intelligence.

Let's think about the picture for a moment.

What is the biggest factor that prevents Assad and moderate Opposition reconciliation? The radical groups. Who are the radical groups? The HTS.

What is the only reason Russia bombed Turkish controlled areas? The presence of HTS linked organizations like Ahrar Awlan. What will be the perfect pretext for an Assad offensive which will be supported by Russia on Turkish controlled areas? HTS presence.

Who is the biggest winner by Assad-Turkiye tension and the prevention of reconciliation? HTS, YPG and Iran.

What will happen if SNA and the Regime reconciliate? They will join forces to fight against radicals, stabilize the country, form a new national system without the need of HTS and Iran. Who are the radicals? HTS.

Who was the biggest opponent in HTS to Iran and Iranian controlled Al-Qaeda? Al-Qahtani. What happened to him? He was first arrested and then killed.

Why the Coalition supported a Turkish organized coup against Al-Joulani? Because it might sound crazy, but I think Joulani may still be in contact with Al-Qaeda's Seif Al-Adl and he may be playing together with Iran in order to degrade the moderate Opposition, make the reconciliation between Turkiye, SNA and Assad impossible, eventually capture the Turkish controlled areas in Syria and make the pretext for Assad offensive against our areas, destroy the sense of separation between the SNA and HTS for Russia. The Coalition maybe knew this and wanted to make a move towards the prevention of Iranian expansion trough HTS by installing a proxy figure like Al-Qahtani who would've most probably purged the radical elements of HTS, would've continued hunting ISIS and Al-Qaeda figures and would've moved towards merging with the SNA and forming an unified government for Turkish controlled areas and HTS controlled Idlib. From where do we know this? We know this due to his work on the field with the Turkish groups in the north of Syria trough Abu Ahmed Zakkour, who was also arrested by HTS, but later rescued by MIT. If Iran backed, false flag HTS expansion happens in the Turkish controlled areas this will eliminate Turkiye from the game and establish Iranian dominance in the whole Aleppo province just as in Aleppo city right now (even SAA is prohibited from entering Hezbollah/IRGC points at the moment). In return Joulani may be given the chance to escape and continue with his jihadi work, rejoin Al-Qaeda and operate just as Seif Al-Adl.

We can also see the malign intentions in the recent provocations. Just after the situation in Kayseri and the statements by Erdogan and Assad on negotiations, meeting and the opening of the border gates, we saw an unprecedented provocation against TSK and Turks in the region. Who were the first traitors to open fire against the TSK units? Reportedly Ahrar Awlan and the Manbij Brigade, in other words HTS. Who was the one directing and controlling the public response and propaganda? Ahmad Muwaffaq Zaidan who is allegedly closely connected to Al-Qaeda and in the same time is controlling the media operations of the HTS. I don't think everything is just a coincidence. I truly start to believe that all this may be an Iranian/Al-Qaeda game in order to prevent peace in Syria and firmly establish Iranian dominance.

Everything starts to be more complicated by the day and my only hope is that our strategists are not sleeping right now and I am not alone in the act of thinking about this issue at 5:30am in the morning...

Turkish authorities may be waiting to see how the Iranian presidential elections go. The most popular candidate, Dr. Mesud Pezeshkian, is ethnic Azerbaijani who is in favor of much better relations with Turkey. Granted he may be just another grifting candidate or worse, a plant to placate the citizenry, but seems like a decent man by all accounts so far.

 

[Ryder]

Turkish authorities may be waiting to see how the Iranian presidential elections go. The most popular candidate, Dr. Mesud Pezeshkian, is ethnic Azerbaijani who is in favor of much better relations with Turkey. Granted he may be just another grifting candidate or worse, a plant to placate the citizenry, but seems like a decent man by all accounts so far.

Khamanei is a Azerbaijani by the way.

I wouldnt hold too much hope.