Another analysis comes from Huseyin Bozan, the President of the National Turkmen Coalition in Syria.
"How should we evaluate Iran's raid on the Republic Palace in Damascus, alleging espionage, and the assassination of Assad's advisor Luna Shibil, which was disguised as an accident? (The background of this is that people that were tasked by Luna Shibil are suspects allegedly connected to the President Raisi's helicopter crash, working for MOSSAD)
These days, when it is claimed that Turkiye and the Syrian Regime will meet in Baghdad, Iran's raid on Bashar Assad's palace in Damascus on the grounds of espionage and the accidental assassination of Assad's advisor should not be seen as independent of each other.
At a time when everyone was talking about the events in Turkiye and northern Syria, Iran gave a warning to Bashar Assad with the assassination of his advisor Luna Shibil and the raid on the Republic Palace!
Iran, disturbed by Turkiye's presence in Syria, wants Assad to stipulate the withdrawal of the Turkish Armed Forces from Syria as a precondition in the peace talks, because the presence of the Turkish Armed Forces in Syria poses a threat to Iran's presence in the country and its projects in the region.
Iran is also disturbed by the negotiations and agreements made between Turkiye and Russia on Syria. Iran knows that after the terrorist organization YPG/PKK is neutralized, it will be Iran's turn to leave the country.
The terrorist organization YPG/PKK, which sought different allies after the withdrawal of the United States during Operation Peace Spring, is holding secret meetings with Iran in Hasakah and Deir Ezzor. The common enemy of these secret allies, whose existence in Syria is interconnected is Turkiye.
If Syria is cleared of the terrorist organization YPG/PKK, Iran's presence in the country will also be in danger. That's why Iran wants Turkiye to withdraw from Syria.
With the raid of the Revolutionary Guards on the Republic Palace in Damascus after the assassination of Luna Shibil, Bashar Assad was given the message that if he moves towards the wrong way, it will end up the same as Shibil!"
x.com
This correspond with the latest analyses we also did on the situation between Iran and Turkiye in Syria and Iraq, but also with the latest reports of alleged Turkish-Russian agreements and the normalizing process between Turkiye and the Syrian Regime, the opening of the border gates between SNA and SAA territories for commercial trade. Looks like big changes are going on not only in the Turkish controlled areas in Syria, but also in Damascus.
I would like to mention something regarding HTS, but please take it as a pure conspiracy theory from me.
We mentioned earlier Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani and the coup in the work that was supported by us. Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani was known as a fierce Al-Qaeda opponent and he is one of the main reasons for the split between Al-Julani's HTS and Al-Qaeda in Syria, Hurras Ad-Deen.
Al-Qahtani started as an Islamic State in Iraq figure, moved to Syria and was one of the key figures in the establishing of the Al-Nusra after he started working directly with Ayman Al-Zawahiri. He was one of the leading figures to point at the thread of ISIS and In 2017 he started to show his dissatisfaction with Al-Qaeda. In 2018 according to an UN report HTS was still maintaining contacts with Al-Qaeda Central (Seif Al-Adl in Iran) and they even used Al-Qaeda explosives experts sent from Afghanistan against Ahrar Al-Sham (a Muslim Brotherhood jihadist organization) in their fight at the time.
In 2022 after the death of Ayman Al-Zawahiri he urged all Al-Qaeda branches to dissolve. As a reason he pointed out that the leader of Al-Qaeda, Seif Al-Adl is in Iran and Iran directs Al-Qaeda trough him. The latest proof for this statement is the Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and especially Al-Qaeda in Yemen acting like a direct Iranian proxy, coordinating their actions with the Houthis, another Iranian proxy.
Al-Qahtani is known to have played an active role in the elimination of Hurras Ad-Deen (Al-Qaeda in Syria) trough his cooperation with the Coalition. He was being called out by Al-Qaeda as an US collaborator and eventually he was arrested by Al-Joulani later for "improper use of social media" due to his provocative posts and after that it was understood that he planned a coup against Al-Joulani with Turkish and Coalition support. He was later released after public pressure and blown up in his place in Idlib allegedly by HTS Intelligence.
Let's think about the picture for a moment.
What is the biggest factor that prevents Assad and moderate Opposition reconciliation? The radical groups. Who are the radical groups? The HTS.
What is the only reason Russia bombed Turkish controlled areas? The presence of HTS linked organizations like Ahrar Awlan. What will be the perfect pretext for an Assad offensive which will be supported by Russia on Turkish controlled areas? HTS presence.
Who is the biggest winner by Assad-Turkiye tension and the prevention of reconciliation? HTS, YPG and Iran.
What will happen if SNA and the Regime reconciliate? They will join forces to fight against radicals, stabilize the country, form a new national system without the need of HTS and Iran. Who are the radicals? HTS.
Who was the biggest opponent in HTS to Iran and Iranian controlled Al-Qaeda? Al-Qahtani. What happened to him? He was first arrested and then killed.
Why the Coalition supported a Turkish organized coup against Al-Joulani? Because it might sound crazy, but I think Joulani may still be in contact with Al-Qaeda's Seif Al-Adl and he may be playing together with Iran in order to degrade the moderate Opposition, make the reconciliation between Turkiye, SNA and Assad impossible, eventually capture the Turkish controlled areas in Syria and make the pretext for Assad offensive against our areas, destroy the sense of separation between the SNA and HTS for Russia. The Coalition maybe knew this and wanted to make a move towards the prevention of Iranian expansion trough HTS by installing a proxy figure like Al-Qahtani who would've most probably purged the radical elements of HTS, would've continued hunting ISIS and Al-Qaeda figures and would've moved towards merging with the SNA and forming an unified government for Turkish controlled areas and HTS controlled Idlib. From where do we know this? We know this due to his work on the field with the Turkish groups in the north of Syria trough Abu Ahmed Zakkour, who was also arrested by HTS, but later rescued by MIT. If Iran backed, false flag HTS expansion happens in the Turkish controlled areas this will eliminate Turkiye from the game and establish Iranian dominance in the whole Aleppo province just as in Aleppo city right now (even SAA is prohibited from entering Hezbollah/IRGC points at the moment). In return Joulani may be given the chance to escape and continue with his jihadi work, rejoin Al-Qaeda and operate just as Seif Al-Adl.
We can also see the malign intentions in the recent provocations. Just after the situation in Kayseri and the statements by Erdogan and Assad on negotiations, meeting and the opening of the border gates, we saw an unprecedented provocation against TSK and Turks in the region. Who were the first traitors to open fire against the TSK units? Reportedly Ahrar Awlan and the Manbij Brigade, in other words HTS. Who was the one directing and controlling the public response and propaganda? Ahmad Muwaffaq Zaidan who is allegedly closely connected to Al-Qaeda and in the same time is controlling the media operations of the HTS. I don't think everything is just a coincidence. I truly start to believe that all this may be an Iranian/Al-Qaeda game in order to prevent peace in Syria and firmly establish Iranian dominance.
Everything starts to be more complicated by the day and my only hope is that our strategists are not sleeping right now and I am not alone in the act of thinking about this issue at 5:30am in the morning...
