So does that mean if we decide to take Tel Rifat that we're directly going to clash with Assad and Russia ?
Russia less likely, but Assad for sure. Tal Rifat is like a gathering point for scum. Even before the deployment of the 25th Special Task Division there was a significant SAA presence along HRE/PKK and the Iranian militias. Not long ago after SNA conducted an infiltration against HRE/PKK positions SAA tank was involved in the pursue for the infiltrator force. Whenever there is a harassing fire towards HRE/PKK positions the return fire comes from the SAA. They also received a lot of casualties in result of TSK artillery fire, so basically a direct contact between TSK and the SAA is not something new.
The significant thing here is the presence of the 25th Special Task Division or widely known as the "Tiger Forces". The Tiger Forces are a Russian proxy and are financed and trained by Russia. Their ex-commander is the notorious "Pink Panther" Suheil Al-Hassan. The whole move is being pushed with a Russian blessing. I don't believe Russia has the same deterrence as in the past, but still a direct confrontation with Russia (mainly the RuAF) would give a birth to a lot of negative results. We should not forget the RuAF attack in Balyun, 2020 where 34 Turkish soldiers were martyred, tens of others were wounded and the situation was so bad that even ambulances were hit so some of our wounded were evacuated by civilians on pickup trucks.
I think so far the TSK reinforcement in the area is adequate, but Erdogan is not. While we have thousands of Iranian, Assad and HRE/PKK fighters preparing to obliterate our areas together with the TSK personnel inside there is no word about it. An adequate president with an adequate team would've been giving the needed political messages to our adversaries and warn them of the consequences. I am sure that 95% of the Turks don't even know that we are on the brink of a catastrophe in Syria and a new refugee crisis involving not only Syrian refugees, but refugees in the numbers of tens, if not in hundreds of thousands from Lebanon.
There is something interesting to discuss tho. It is a bit in the land of the theories of conspiracy, but it is strange and it is HTS's involvement. There are some indications pointing at the possibility of an HTS-Israel agreement in all this. Mainly while Israel is fighting in Lebanon the HTS is endangering Aleppo which is one of the most strategic points for Assad and Iran. In results thousands of fighters both from the most elite units of the SAA, Hezbollah and other Iranian militias are sent in the area together with heavy equipment and in the same time Israel does a limited incursion into Syria. I think there's something fishy in all this. There are also reported Turkish officials statements pointing at an external support HTS, warning them that after this support ends they will face the consequences.
It is interesting to see how this whole situation will develop...
