Military Operations Syria

[Kartal1]

So does that mean if we decide to take Tel Rifat that we're directly going to clash with Assad and Russia ?

Russia less likely, but Assad for sure. Tal Rifat is like a gathering point for scum. Even before the deployment of the 25th Special Task Division there was a significant SAA presence along HRE/PKK and the Iranian militias. Not long ago after SNA conducted an infiltration against HRE/PKK positions SAA tank was involved in the pursue for the infiltrator force. Whenever there is a harassing fire towards HRE/PKK positions the return fire comes from the SAA. They also received a lot of casualties in result of TSK artillery fire, so basically a direct contact between TSK and the SAA is not something new.

The significant thing here is the presence of the 25th Special Task Division or widely known as the "Tiger Forces". The Tiger Forces are a Russian proxy and are financed and trained by Russia. Their ex-commander is the notorious "Pink Panther" Suheil Al-Hassan. The whole move is being pushed with a Russian blessing. I don't believe Russia has the same deterrence as in the past, but still a direct confrontation with Russia (mainly the RuAF) would give a birth to a lot of negative results. We should not forget the RuAF attack in Balyun, 2020 where 34 Turkish soldiers were martyred, tens of others were wounded and the situation was so bad that even ambulances were hit so some of our wounded were evacuated by civilians on pickup trucks.

I think so far the TSK reinforcement in the area is adequate, but Erdogan is not. While we have thousands of Iranian, Assad and HRE/PKK fighters preparing to obliterate our areas together with the TSK personnel inside there is no word about it. An adequate president with an adequate team would've been giving the needed political messages to our adversaries and warn them of the consequences. I am sure that 95% of the Turks don't even know that we are on the brink of a catastrophe in Syria and a new refugee crisis involving not only Syrian refugees, but refugees in the numbers of tens, if not in hundreds of thousands from Lebanon.

There is something interesting to discuss tho. It is a bit in the land of the theories of conspiracy, but it is strange and it is HTS's involvement. There are some indications pointing at the possibility of an HTS-Israel agreement in all this. Mainly while Israel is fighting in Lebanon the HTS is endangering Aleppo which is one of the most strategic points for Assad and Iran. In results thousands of fighters both from the most elite units of the SAA, Hezbollah and other Iranian militias are sent in the area together with heavy equipment and in the same time Israel does a limited incursion into Syria. I think there's something fishy in all this. There are also reported Turkish officials statements pointing at an external support HTS, warning them that after this support ends they will face the consequences.

It is interesting to see how this whole situation will develop...

 

[Sanchez]

"Syrian regime sources: A joint military operation will be carried out with Kurdish forces to liberate the entire occupied north of Syria."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846199424902459495

 

[Kartal1]

Syrian regime militias fired artillery at the center of the town of Atarib in the western countryside of Aleppo. At least two children were killed in the strikes.

In response TSK destroyed at least 2 artillery systems belonging to the SAA that targeted the civilians. In the meanwhile 4 fighter jets belonging to the RuAF were dispatched to the area. Along other TSK artillery units that targeted the west of Ayn Al-Arab and the north of Manbij, the Turkish artillery units stationed in the south of Idlib are conducting heavy strikes on the SAA in Seraqib. Currently at least 5 Russian fighter jets are flying above TSK's positions. May Allah protect our soldiers!

If the political echelon has a bit of honor, then give a green light for a TuAF combat air patrol task on the border areas! Bring at least a bit of confidence to these boys!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846274806875914299

 

[Saithan]

Yes, there is a big difference in having Armed F16 flying patrol along inside our border and not flying. if Akinci can be fitted with A2A missiles having it fly patrol could be bare minimum solution.

But I don't believe Akinci has been tested with A2A missile or hit a flying target dummy... that would be a message worth sending.

 

[Kartal1]

Turkish F-16s entered Idlib air space today.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846524711624221160

Not long after that 6 Russian fighter jets were dispatched to Idlib from Hmeymim. The RuAF targeted many locations including the Idlib center, the refugee camp in Marat Mistin and Maatram village in which TSK outpost is positioned.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846554799732392387

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846558755451818228

 

[MhhJA]

Two mortar shells landed in a mined area in Kilis; Turkish Armed Forces responds with MLRS, artillery and tank fire.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846598394078192041

 

[Kartal1]

Two mortar shells landed in a mined area in Kilis; Turkish Armed Forces responds with MLRS, artillery and tank fire.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846598394078192041

There are clashes between Suqur Al-Shimal and the Joint Forces in Hawar Kilis. Currently there is still no confirmation confirming the information and surely there is no artillery or tank fire from TSK. Most probably we are talking about a confusion of the media regarding Kilis and Hawar Kilis which is in Syria (there is a MIT HQ there).

If by any chance mortar rounds fell on Turkish territory (very unlikely) it should be known that the origin is some of the fighting forces in Hawar Kilis.

 

[Kartal1]

There are clashes between Suqur Al-Shimal and the Joint Forces in Hawar Kilis. Currently there is still no confirmation confirming the information and surely there is no artillery or tank fire from TSK. Most probably we are talking about a confusion of the media regarding Kilis and Hawar Kilis which is in Syria (there is a MIT HQ there).

If by any chance mortar rounds fell on Turkish territory (very unlikely) it should be known that the origin is some of the fighting forces in Hawar Kilis.

Okay, it is what we thought it is...

Security Sources: “A rocket that bounced off a clash on the Syrian side of the border fell into a minefield and caused a fire. Our troops had no involvement. It is not true that a response was given.”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846607314230694201

Meanwhile the RuAF is conducting airstrikes just 5km from the Turkish border.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1846617295772352755

 

[Lool]

As always the situation in Syria is confusing AF with trillions of factions with god knows whom they really support

Anyways, from the recent events, it seems that we can hypothesize few points:

1- Turkey wants to get rid of the HTS as they can backstab Turkey at the back at any moment

2- Assad wants to get rid of HTS as they are creating chaos and working in tandem with Tel Aviv (fqing jews everywhere I swear)

3- it seems weird that HTS is being attacked and Turkey isnt responding; thus, coupled with the first 2 points, I believe we can hypothesize that Turkey and Russia reached some sort of agreement involving the elimination of the HTS

4- It seems that Turkey and the SNA wants Tel Rifat and rumors of an impending op is high; but as always, take it with a grain of salt

5- It seems the rumors that Turkey, Russia, and Assad are gradually becoming closer is starting to have some legitimacy

 

[Scott Summers]

I also think that this a tripartite operation from Turkey-Russia-Syria.

 

[Ryder]

People really have to be deluded that Turkiye would work with Iran and Russia in Syria.

 

[Lool]

People really have to be deluded that Turkiye would work with Iran and Russia in Syria.

This is just a hypothesis since it is speculated that the TSK hates the HTS

 

[Ryder]

This is just a hypothesis since it is speculated that the TSK hates the HTS

We hate HTS but we use them as proxies against ASSad and Russia. Hts is known to fight Russia. Let them kill each other off.

 

[Ryder]

Both are our enemies Israel and all shiite militias backed by Iran. If they'd get a chance both would compete to see which side could commit more atrocities to our people. They would butcher every living thing they find men, women, children even animals, like Israel in Gaza and the shiite militias in Syria. So don't talk like one side is better than the other they are not!
In general everyone foreign in Syria be it Russia, USA, Iran, Israel and all their proxies are our enemies and no side is any better than the other.

Two of the biggest scumbags.

Israel and Iran. Both will be dealt with in the future.

What makes it worse in Syria as you have Russia and the USA in the same place acting against Turkiye.

 

[Corvus]

We hate HTS but we use them as proxies against ASSad and Russia. Hts is known to fight Russia. Let them kill each other off.

Why do we hate HTS?

 

[Sanchez]

Why do we hate HTS?

Because it's Al Qaeda lite near our border whose leader and organization stayed alive until now because unlike their brethren they forewent their global jihad initiatives and adopted a more inward looking stance. It's still a bed of fundamentalism that will fester with millions of people living under its rule and will continue to be a hotbed for fundamentalism.

 

[Corvus]

Because it's Al Qaeda lite near our border whose leader and organization stayed alive until now because unlike their brethren they forewent their global jihad initiatives and adopted a more inward looking stance. It's still a bed of fundamentalism that will fester with millions of people living under its rule and will continue to be a hotbed for fundamentalism.

I thought similar until seeing Israel's outright barbarity and how the "civilized" West keeps supporting them.

However, I no longer look at things from the Western perspective and use terms like "global jihad". We should switch yellow Hollywood filters off while looking at the Middle East.

If these people are fundamentalists, there must be reasons for it. We should focus on the reasons rather than the outcome.

Is HTS a problem for Türkiye and Turkish foreign policy? If yes, that's another matter. However, I don't see such a case at the moment. We have much bigger problems.

Btw, -afaik- HTS is quite decent in their military and in their administration. There's no corruption and disorder under their authority. They keep their towns safe and well maintained. Unlike the "moderate" SNA that we support unfortunately.

 

[Lool]

We hate HTS but we use them as proxies against ASSad and Russia. Hts is known to fight Russia. Let them kill each other off.

Its true but it is rumored that after the HTS took control of Idlib, they started to disobey Turkish commands and are even rumored to have contacts with the Israeli Mossad

The HTS is trying to drag Turkey into a war with Assad and Russia. This comes when Assad/Turkey reapproachement started taking baby steps and when Israel started waging a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. As @Kartal1 said, the rumors that HTS struck a deal with Mossad to weaken Assad, Russia, as well as Turkey while Israel takes the easy path in conquering nations is highly plausible

Therefore, we can conclude that having this type of ally (wolves in sheep clothes) being eliminated early on in the game is beneficial in the long run as they will 1000000% stab Turkey in the back when it matters the most since the jews love nothing more than traitors after all

Lets not forget the time when HTS fighters were being treated in Israeli hospitals just like with ISIS

 

[Sanchez]

West keeps supporting them

West supports HTS as well. How do you think they managed to stay in their corner of Syria while ISIS was being bombed to oblivion? How did US did multiple anti ISIS ops without touching HTS? They cooperate.

Is HTS a problem for Türkiye and Turkish foreign policy?

Of course it is. It's a fundamentalist holdout with nowhere to go with millions of malnourished refugees under its rule. Turkey did silently act against HTS multiple times in the last year.

 

[Kartal1]

I also think that this a tripartite operation from Turkey-Russia-Syria.

Not even close.

I thought similar until seeing Israel's outright barbarity and how the "civilized" West keeps supporting them.

However, I no longer look at things from the Western perspective and use terms like "global jihad". We should switch yellow Hollywood filters off while looking at the Middle East.

If these people are fundamentalists, there must be reasons for it. We should focus on the reasons rather than the outcome.

Is HTS a problem for Türkiye and Turkish foreign policy? If yes, that's another matter. However, I don't see such a case at the moment. We have much bigger problems.

Btw, -afaik- HTS is quite decent in their military and in their administration. There's no corruption and disorder under their authority. They keep their towns safe and well maintained. Unlike the "moderate" SNA that we support unfortunately.

After the Operation Spring Shield HTS was involved into multiple moves targeting us and our sponsored forces. They managed to infiltrate the ranks of SNA and force the idea of joining forces under a radical Salvation Government.

Just a couple of months ago HTS supported terrorists opened fire at Turkish forces resulting in clashes in a couple of points in our controlled areas and TSK bases in Idlib were besieged, military equipment sustained damage. I don't even want to mention the IED attacks targeting joint TSK-Russian patrols that they put on DEASH while it was them.

HTS is viewing TSK as murtadeen and we view them as radicals. There's no future with them. Not to mention their relationship with foreign intelligence services.

As always the situation in Syria is confusing AF with trillions of factions with god knows whom they really support

Anyways, from the recent events, it seems that we can hypothesize few points:

1- Turkey wants to get rid of the HTS as they can backstab Turkey at the back at any moment

2- Assad wants to get rid of HTS as they are creating chaos and working in tandem with Tel Aviv (fqing jews everywhere I swear)

3- it seems weird that HTS is being attacked and Turkey isnt responding; thus, coupled with the first 2 points, I believe we can hypothesize that Turkey and Russia reached some sort of agreement involving the elimination of the HTS

4- It seems that Turkey and the SNA wants Tel Rifat and rumors of an impending op is high; but as always, take it with a grain of salt

5- It seems the rumors that Turkey, Russia, and Assad are gradually becoming closer is starting to have some legitimacy

There are no concrete steps taken by the Assad Regime on point 5. We did countless of gestures that went unanswered and not only that, but military activity on Manbij and Tal Rifat fronts increased immensely. I think the failure of this process took us to the point of planning an action against Tal Rifat. This is where HTS wants to exploit the situation and attack Aleppo as they know very well that we will be forced to intervene on their behalf. Now we have a situation where we either wait Assad to launch an attack on Idlib and respond or we act first. Very hard situation.