Poll One year anniversary of the Ukraine-Russia war. What will be the long term consequences of this conflict?

[blackjack]

@blackjack, you really believe that 'glorious' Russian history that even FSB let's their interns to push it forward. Any nation in their history had a peek of their civilization. As for crushing maybe you are young But Dzhokhar Dudayev took a really good piss at this 'super power' 2 times. And we all know who gave his coordinates to the Russians.

Well the results now are the chechnyans with some convicts are doing all the ass kicking to the AFU without all the troops that they have which have not been used yet hence why we have a bunch of users here coping that Russia for some reason is going 110% all in on this war. M777s with wunderwaffle excalibur are always getting blown up by lesser range MSTA koalition rounds all over twitter, And russias response to the western tanks delivery is just to produce several times the amount of koalition shells. NATO already proved its incompetence in Syria(not going to say which country specifically to piss off this entire forum) getting leopards destroyed and a shitload of destroyed drones being published all over the lost armour website or how an outdated S-200 shot down an F-16I and most of the ukrainian aircrafts getting shot down are by MANPADS, or short range air defense systems. There were talks about Russia new weapons are in small batches like the T-14s, Pantsir-SM and Tornado MLRS systems until it was recently heard around this year that production increased with their numbers. Russias answer to western tanks and NATO howitzers is more koalition shells and as fucked up as it is, it seems to being doing the job that they have no need to start production on Hermes 2 stage MLRS systems, koalition howitzers and eventually Klevok-D2 MLRS systems depending where they are at with those missiles and they see the Tornado MLRS as sufficient to dealing with any more talks of more HIMARs.

Hell now I am hearing funny shit about 5th gens being used in this war, but if they do not use it in this war and russia ends up winning from the looks of it that destroys the reputation of talking big providing the cream of the crop weapons to only withdraw it out of certain fear. Considering how U.S. sent their weapon inspectors to Ukraine wanting to know where their weapons were going it will be funny If Russians bribe a Ukrainian pilot with money to hand them the F-35

 

[Rooxbar]

The 29 countries that have sanctions against Russia, make up more than 60% of the world economy. If you think having trade restrictions, banking boycotts, etc. with the 60% of world economy isn't going to have severe long-term consequences, you're delusional. If Putin hasn't calculated this, he's incompetent. Only way out that I can imagine Putin might have had in his mind starting this war is that he might have thought about, after achieving some sort of success, in gaining the eastern oil-rich but problematic plains or the coveted black sea port, to step aside after some years when the ashes of war have cooled and in a sham process let "elections" choose a seemingly western-friendly leader to take the helm and start normalization with the west without having to negotiate the gains of war; but behind the doors have the western friendly guy be from his camp. But this obviously wouldn't work as western intelligence agencies would immediately know about such an operation; maybe they hope they can pull it off clandestinely, maybe. Otherwise, the future is grim for Russia, even in the case of their Pyrhhic victory, which I think they're gonna get through sheer numbers.

 

[blackjack]

The 29 countries that have sanctions against Russia, make up more than 60% of the world economy. If you think having trade restrictions, banking boycotts, etc. with the 60% of world economy isn't going to have severe long-term consequences, you're delusional. If Putin hasn't calculated this, he's incompetent. Only way out that I can imagine Putin might have had in his mind starting this war is that he might have thought about, after achieving some sort of success, in gaining the eastern oil-rich but problematic plains or the coveted black sea port, to step aside after some years when the ashes of war have cooled and in a sham process let "elections" choose a seemingly western-friendly leader to take the helm and start normalization with the west without having to negotiate the gains of war; but behind the doors have the western friendly guy be from his camp. But this obviously wouldn't work as western intelligence agencies would immediately know about such an operation; maybe they hope they can pull it off clandestinely, maybe. Otherwise, the future is grim for Russia, even in the case of their Pyrhhic victory, which I think they're gonna get through sheer numbers.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey apply to join Brics

morningstaronline.co.uk

 

[Quasar]

Crieamean war 1854, Russo japanese war 1905 or Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, all major military failuers through out history had serious consequences for whomever rules Russia. the consequences of Ukraine war will be not any less dramatic.

-inadequacy of Russian tactics, personal, command structure, logistic and widespread corruption became quite apparent and undeniable
-Russia lost her major export market for natural gas and oil i.e Euope & major sanctions and isolation from west
-one immediate consequence of such an isolation is the power relation between Russia and China has changed not only China but with regional powers like İran and Turkey..... as well.
-it became quite evident that with all its shortcomings on paper aliance system establised by USA is working
- a concept like European army or European security without USA is a wet dream.

 

[Mehmed Ali]

There's nothing to be surprised here and say Russian did this and that mistake. This is the natural state of that mind.
Before Russo Japanese war , Japanese tried 4 times to come to an agreement with this fat rotten girl. Northern Manjcuria for this greedy demented entity and Liyadong and South for Japan. But hey Vladivostok freezes during the winters and we need to secure ourselves, after that as usual they would need to go further South yet again to secure what they had already could have stolen.
Even that war criminal General Kuropatkin said " All of this for a few timbers and a couple of mines".
They got a good lesson there , the first revolution happened. Then they got in alliance with Britain against Germany 1907 , despite British support for Japan and German support for Russia and French neutrality. Ofcourse, this rotten fat girl hoped to screw Britain in the case of the war with Germany. They planned to swallow it all, Bosphorus, Eastern Anatolia , Persian Gulf and Northern Bank of Suez Canal. Ofcourse Britain and USA knew it so they gave them February revolution, Germans October one.
For many of us it was good, because if they listened to Prince Durnovo and Stolyipin , they would had kept out of it , annihilate Central Asia , bring there rats from different part of Russia then these schizo maniacs would in the future war annihilate the rest of us.
Britain, France, USA, Germany and others knew that this Rotten girl has no limits in her appetite, they knew that she never ever keep her word, so they did what they do today.
Low and behold, red emperors tried through Poland 1920 to conquer Germany, they needed Germany to pay for the future Red Empire alas Poles kinda didn't agree with that .
We know that this shit kept carrying on all this Time
Now days , the game is to recreate Russian Empire and them and Germans hoped that it will work
This girl forgot that after the fall of USSR , the west agreed something with them.
So we have had Georgian war, Chechen wars , Syrian war , meddling just about anywhere, where they don't belong.
Due to the stupidly of people due to their crude propaganda, they managed to create a lot of idiotic supporters around the world.
So this war won't be over soon.
This girl is going to wait for pseudo right to take over in the west, that they can finish and do what they dream about for over 300 years .
The problems are that many people in the west think that Russian soldiers are dying to liberate them from LGBTIQ and many Orientals believe that Mother Russia will lead them to the new anti imperialist world.
By that , someone can see how this world is fucked up and Ukrainian War is just the opening salvo. Who knows this idiotic , vile country even can succeed. Obviously these people are ready to burn the whole world for their ambition , they proved it time and again

 

[blackjack]

-inadequacy of Russian tactics, personal, command structure, logistic and widespread corruption became quite apparent and undeniable

-18 Wagnerites convicts of Vasya the Skull gang from Penal Colony 18 of Perm city
vs 60 000 NATO trained professional AFU soldiers and the results is that the AFU is getting pushed back, I still dont understand how conclusions are immediately drawn that NATO is stronger than Russia from this when Russia barely flexed their muscles. I don't even think any country in Europe, or the middle east has a huge army like Ukraine on top of that.

-Russia lost her major export market natural gas and oil i.e Euope & major sanctions and isolation from west

- but also gained new partners like China, India, mongolia, kazahkstan, drilling for more oil in the arctic and Europe will probably cope with saying they are not getting Russian gas via a possible Turkey/Russian gas hub project where Russians will still profit from this. I already get it that Turkey wants to play both sides.

 

[Gary]

- but also gained new partners like China, India, mongolia, kazahkstan, drilling for more oil in the arctic and Europe will probably cope with saying they are not getting Russian gas via a possible Turkey/Russian gas hub project where Russians will still profit from this. I already get it that Turkey wants to play both sides.

Partnership with China is the kind of partnership where China is number one and everyone is number ten.

Look at the "partnership" between China and Pakistan and you'll understand what I'm talking about.

Anyway, the teacher has now become the student between you and China.

 

[blackjack]

Partnership with China is the kind of partnership where China is number one and everyone is number ten.

Look at the "partnership" between China and Pakistan and you'll understand what I'm talking about.

Anyway, the teacher has now become the student between you and China.

i don't see any difference other than the U.S. eventually getting kicked out from having this kind of partnership with others as well.

 

[Ryder]

What makes it worse not just Russia was going to take Kiev.

But the Plan was to take Ukraine's black sea coast which enlarges their warm water ports even link up with Transnistria.

Now they are locked in a landlocked battle in the Donbass region which is taking up lots of resources for little gain.

Wagners fighting better than the Russian military shows how embarassing this is when PMC's can do a better job.

Yevgeny Prigozhin is a prick but still has the balls to visit his own troops in the frontline rather than the coward Russian generals in their bunkers.

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

It has proven how important air superiority is and how Russia failed to make the switch to good E/O and precision guided bombs. After Azerbaijan knocked out Armenia's air defences in Karabakh, it was all over for Armenia. Whereas in Ukraine, Russia rushed in quick and suffered a lot of losses, presumably mostly to S-300s. Now Russia is reluctant to launch big air campaigns. If Russia put its entire weight in on the first few days and completely destroyed all of Ukraine's air defences and fighters, it could have been over quick. The issue is that Russian planes tend to fly low in order to effectively use dumb bombs, making them susceptible to short range air defences, even MANPADS. Now that Ukraine is flooded with NATO-supplied air defence systems, they won't run out anytime soon.

China and Russia will likely try to hasten their 5th gen fighter programs along with ensuring that E/O systems can match western counterparts. They will also mass produce precision guided bombs. In other words, they will emulate NATOs fighter/multirole combat jet philosophy.

For the next 5 years, Russia has lost its prestige as a force to be reckoned with. Only time will tell if Russia will reinvent its military. China is watching very, very closely, taking notes. Meanwhile the West is glad that Russia is stuck in a quagmire, and will try to keep this conflict alive for enough to make Russia bleed. At the same time, it's a sigh of relief for the USA, which was afraid of the formation of alliance between Eastern powers.

 

[Afif]

China and Russia will likely try to hasten their 5th gen fighter programs along with ensuring that E/O systems can match western counterparts. They will also mass produce precision guided bombs. In other words, they will emulate NATOs fighter/multirole combat jet philosophy.

At this point in my opinion, any serious comparison between Russian air force and Chinese air force would be a false equivalence fallacy.

PLA Air force already has those Precision guided bombs in mass numbers.

Here is an example,
https://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-GBU.html
( keep in mind this report is more than a decade old. A lot changed since then )


In terms of sophisticated electronics for military appliances Chinese are considerably ahead of the Russian federation.


Apart from that, In the last decade PLAAF gone through some sweeping reforms in terms of doctrine and operational tactics.
And this trend still continue to this day.

 

[Mis_TR_Like]

At this point in my opinion, any serious comparison between Russian air force and Chinese air force would be a false equivalence fallacy.

PLA Air force already has those Precision guided bombs in mass numbers.

Here is an example,
https://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-GBU.html
( keep in mind this report is more than a decade old. A lot changed since then )


In terms of sophisticated electronics for military appliances Chinese are considerably ahead of the Russian federation.


Apart from that, In the last decade PLAAF gone through some sweeping reforms in terms of doctrine and operational tactics.
And this trend still continue to this day.

I agree that China has surpassed Russia. They are clearly trying to leverage their massive industry and economy to create an air force that can hold a candle to the USAF. But at the same time a huge chunk of the PLAAFs aircraft are either Russian or based on Russian platforms. The J-20 is a massive leap forward for them, and they have more than 200 right now, which is quite impressive. But I wonder just how advanced they are. One thing is for sure, China is glad that it began the process of revamping its air force by its own instead of just relying on Russian cooperation. J-10 has some Russian components, but it represented a change towards a new direction. Meanwhile the J-20 was China's message to the world that its air force has entered a new era, no longer reliant or Russian tech.

It will be interesting to see how the PLAAF evolves.

 

[Ryder]

It has proven how important air superiority is and how Russia failed to make the switch to good E/O and precision guided bombs. After Azerbaijan knocked out Armenia's air defences in Karabakh, it was all over for Armenia. Whereas in Ukraine, Russia rushed in quick and suffered a lot of losses, presumably mostly to S-300s. Now Russia is reluctant to launch big air campaigns. If Russia put its entire weight in on the first few days and completely destroyed all of Ukraine's air defences and fighters, it could have been over quick. The issue is that Russian planes tend to fly low in order to effectively use dumb bombs, making them susceptible to short range air defences, even MANPADS. Now that Ukraine is flooded with NATO-supplied air defence systems, they won't run out anytime soon.

China and Russia will likely try to hasten their 5th gen fighter programs along with ensuring that E/O systems can match western counterparts. They will also mass produce precision guided bombs. In other words, they will emulate NATOs fighter/multirole combat jet philosophy.

For the next 5 years, Russia has lost its prestige as a force to be reckoned with. Only time will tell if Russia will reinvent its military. China is watching very, very closely, taking notes. Meanwhile the West is glad that Russia is stuck in a quagmire, and will try to keep this conflict alive for enough to make Russia bleed. At the same time, it's a sigh of relief for the USA, which was afraid of the formation of alliance between Eastern powers.

Vdv getting sent to their deaths reminds of German paratroopers being sent to the hot zone without much support.

Fallscrimjager lost to the Dutch while they accumulated heavy casualties in their assault on the Allies in Crete.

Pretty humilating like the Vdv and the German Paratroopers who were actually considered to be the best with good equipment and considered to be the most professional part of their armies.

Without much proper support its easy for Paratroopers to get destroyed.

Russians did not destroy the Ukrainian air defence systems while at the same time Vdv got surrounded and outnumbered.

Paratrooper assault looked good on paper but damn reality slapped the Russians hard.

Russians themselves dont even know the full story of their elite troops getting massacred.

Whole gamble of ending this war within days or even weeks or a month has come to an end.

Russians severely underestimated Ukraine thinking it will be like 2014 where they surrender like in Crimea.

 

[Ryder]

Proved that Russians didn't learn anything from the Chechen wars,their military reform was only show for the masses and also that without nuclear weapons they are not even comparable to NATO.

In the first Chechen war. The Russian government told the public it was just a minor skirmish while radio chatter proved it was the opposite.

Russian convoys were getting destroyed and ambushed.

Russian military in a nutshell they cant even be transparent.

 

[I_Love_F16]

Well the results now are the chechnyans with some convicts are doing all the ass kicking to the AFU without all the troops that they have which have not been used yet hence why we have a bunch of users here coping that Russia for some reason is going 110% all in on this war. M777s with wunderwaffle excalibur are always getting blown up by lesser range MSTA koalition rounds all over twitter, And russias response to the western tanks delivery is just to produce several times the amount of koalition shells. NATO already proved its incompetence in Syria(not going to say which country specifically to piss off this entire forum) getting leopards destroyed and a shitload of destroyed drones being published all over the lost armour website or how an outdated S-200 shot down an F-16I and most of the ukrainian aircrafts getting shot down are by MANPADS, or short range air defense systems. There were talks about Russia new weapons are in small batches like the T-14s, Pantsir-SM and Tornado MLRS systems until it was recently heard around this year that production increased with their numbers. Russias answer to western tanks and NATO howitzers is more koalition shells and as fucked up as it is, it seems to being doing the job that they have no need to start production on Hermes 2 stage MLRS systems, koalition howitzers and eventually Klevok-D2 MLRS systems depending where they are at with those missiles and they see the Tornado MLRS as sufficient to dealing with any more talks of more HIMARs.

Hell now I am hearing funny shit about 5th gens being used in this war, but if they do not use it in this war and russia ends up winning from the looks of it that destroys the reputation of talking big providing the cream of the crop weapons to only withdraw it out of certain fear. Considering how U.S. sent their weapon inspectors to Ukraine wanting to know where their weapons were going it will be funny If Russians bribe a Ukrainian pilot with money to hand them the F-35

Very smart to portray one country as whole NATO lol.

 

[Dmr]

Very smart to portray one country as whole NATO lol.

Not to mention that the "NATO country" after losing those four tanks learned it's lesson and went on to achieve its goal with minimal casualties and not a single tank or IFV lost after that episode.
While other "non NATO countries" are losing entire tank companies per day and still use the same suicidal approach for over a year.

 

[Heartbang]

Not to mention that the "NATO country" after losing those four tanks learned it's lesson and went on to achieve its goal with minimal casualties and not a single tank or IFV lost after that episode.
While other "non NATO countries" are losing entire tank companies per day and still use the same suicidal approach for over a year.

Well the results now are the chechnyans with some convicts are doing all the ass kicking to the AFU without all the troops that they have which have not been used yet hence why we have a bunch of users here coping that Russia for some reason is going 110% all in on this war. M777s with wunderwaffle excalibur are always getting blown up by lesser range MSTA koalition rounds all over twitter, And russias response to the western tanks delivery is just to produce several times the amount of koalition shells. NATO already proved its incompetence in Syria(not going to say which country specifically to piss off this entire forum) getting leopards destroyed and a shitload of destroyed drones being published all over the lost armour website or how an outdated S-200 shot down an F-16I and most of the ukrainian aircrafts getting shot down are by MANPADS, or short range air defense systems. There were talks about Russia new weapons are in small batches like the T-14s, Pantsir-SM and Tornado MLRS systems until it was recently heard around this year that production increased with their numbers. Russias answer to western tanks and NATO howitzers is more koalition shells and as fucked up as it is, it seems to being doing the job that they have no need to start production on Hermes 2 stage MLRS systems, koalition howitzers and eventually Klevok-D2 MLRS systems depending where they are at with those missiles and they see the Tornado MLRS as sufficient to dealing with any more talks of more HIMARs.

Hell now I am hearing funny shit about 5th gens being used in this war, but if they do not use it in this war and russia ends up winning from the looks of it that destroys the reputation of talking big providing the cream of the crop weapons to only withdraw it out of certain fear. Considering how U.S. sent their weapon inspectors to Ukraine wanting to know where their weapons were going it will be funny If Russians bribe a Ukrainian pilot with money to hand them the F-35

I'd also like to remind that those tanks were destroyed by the said countries' air force to keep them from the enemy's hands after their abandonment. Something the VKS seems utterly incapable of doing by the looks of it.

 

[Ryder]

Not to mention that the "NATO country" after losing those four tanks learned it's lesson and went on to achieve its goal with minimal casualties and not a single tank or IFV lost after that episode.
While other "non NATO countries" are losing entire tank companies per day and still use the same suicidal approach for over a year.

Russians have been mocking the Turks and their tank losses along with the Leopard 2 while in Ukraine its littered with so many Russian tanks

 

[Heartbang]

Russians have been mocking the Turks and their tank losses along with the Leopard 2 while in Ukraine its littered with so many Russian tanks

Yea, BTW I'd like to thank the Russian Federation for being the No.1 supplier of tank donations for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
@blackjack

 

[blackjack]

Good chance no one would want to read this post thoroughly but its for those that are actually concerned about the war than treating it like a sports match. I am sure there will be a lot of people that won't like the shit I will say but here we go.

I disagree with the part that Russia had to go in at full power from the start because the Pentagon and Ukrainians and now Poland admit they were arming Ukraine since 2014 all the way to when the entire war started meaning they had a shitload of equipment already supplied from NATO that I even dare say they have more tanks and missile launchers than either Turkey, Poland or Germany. Of course there are sources where Ukraine claims over 150k dead russians to russians giving a 20k ballpark of their deaths which sounds like less than the 30k+ civilians that got killed in the earthquakes in Turkey(I think they are estimating that more earthquakes will happen in the next 10 years) unless they dont count the Wagner mercenaries that got killed. But if we just look at the current situation its just Wagner doing all the work and they are one of many units the Russians have not used yet in this war. BUT we do know for a fact that NATO's land artillery firepower cant match Russia because they would have supplied Ukrainians with enough to evenly match Russia, not to get their asses currently kicked by convicts realistically speaking.

The purpose of the 500k-700k troops or whatever they said that have not been used yet could be for a spring offensive when the mud clears or presumably if NATO is to get involved. Now the next arguement people will make here is like time is not on Russia's side because Ukraine will get armed more and more with wunderwaffles, etc. However I do not think that is the case.

Источник заявил о росте выпуска снарядов "Краснополь" против танков НАТО

В прошлом году предприятия российского оборонного комплекса в несколько раз увеличили производство управляемых артиллерийских снарядов "Краснополь", которые... РИА Новости, 07.02.2023

ria.ru

В Ростехе заявили о росте производства танков, ракет и снарядов «в десятки и сотни раз»

Замглавы «Ростеха» Артяков заявил, что Россия увеличила производство ракетных комплексов «Искандер» в несколько раз В 2022 году увеличилось производс...

www.rline.tv

"Ростех" увеличил объем выпуска гиперзвуковых ракет "Кинжал"

"Ростех" увеличил объем выпускаемых гиперзвуковых ракетных комплексов "Кинжал", заявил глава госкорпорации Сергей Чемезов в эфире программы "Военная приемка" на РИА Новости, 19.02.2023

ria.ru

Krasnopol shells are being produced several times the amount, production for Khinzhal increased more than 50 times, going from 10 to 18 terminator BMPTs per month, 200 tanks per month, Rostec stating ammunition will begin to be increased 10 to 100 fold times. There are at least 3 groups of companies producing munitions that I am aware of and that does not include the LDPR. Those 3 companies have a total of 51 plants, again by the last count that I have. I had read that a problem has been on the chemical side of production for explosive material. One plant is switching over soon to this production while another is getting ready to start production in the future. They are going to also start their photonic integrated circuit production in 2024.

Europe on the otherhand if switching over to American LNG will cost them 4 times the amount they were paying previously before the war. To set things in order. Ammo production consists of three main pillars.

1. steel/iron/metal
2. chemicals
3. energy

Russia has almost unlimited stock of all of those.

Europe strived with a lack of steel industry, which was affected by the lack of energy. And lack of chemicals, affected by the lack of energy as well. A lot of Euro chemical/metal production is gone already, after two years of market changes. Just take a look at BASF reports.
It is warmly called "increasing operations in China". https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/10/26/basf-results

As time passes by excluding Kinzhal there will be production increases of Zircon and Zmeevik missiles against ships assuming if this conflict escalates to WW3 assuming the U.S. tries to match Russia's production numbers in handing over aircrafts and such to Europe. Iranian drone production will increase and wasting million-dollar SAMs will be a pain against them. Even using drones and artillery made Russia wipe out ukrainian air defenses like the S-300. On the technological side I dont see how Ukrainian artillery can match Tornado and 2 stage Hermes(eventually Klevok-D2) koalition howitzers as time passes and production continues to increase on Russia's side.

I am assuming Europe will end up sending less than 100 tanks in Spring as a goodwill gesture just for the Russians to hurry up. Even Turkey sees this conflict as a waste of time and wants to do a gas hub project with Russia to profit off Europe and selling Russian's electronics to probably work a deal with them in Syria.