It’s about not backing down. It’s a war of attrition. Pak wanted to attack military installations so they were replied in kind. Pakistan has never sent jets inside Indian territory either. Not now, now in Kargil in ‘99, not in 2019. It’s obvious who is afraid to lose fighters. At the end of the day, India has more resources.
Live Conflict Pakistan-India Conflict (2025)
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And now India use missiles and drones, no longer dared to use fighters.
True.
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PAF Base Shahbaz (Jacobabad), before & after:
Sargodha & Jacobabad...that's two of Pakistan's most important Air Bases that India has successfully struck (there are many more that were also attacked, like Nur Khan AFB, but these two are ~200 kms away from the border and used to be considered 'safe').
What's more - going by the photos & videos of fresh smoke emerging from the bases, it appears they were actually struck during the DAY. The strikes must have likely been following up after an extensive SEAD/DEAD campaign targeting the Air Defences of these bases, which must have transpired the previous night.
Otherwise, successful attacks on such highly defended bases during daylight hours would have been impossible.
Till this point, it seems India is still only sending very measured, calibrated responses to Pakistani provocations - sending the message that no Air Base of Pakistan is out of reach for India's missile arsenal.
These small volleys of perhaps 2-3 missiles per base that India is now launching can easily be supplanted with salvos of a dozen or more - which an already weakened Pakistani AD would be in no position to hold off.
Every single Pakistani military asset contained in these bases is that close to being a permanent write-off.
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Any way, by tomorrow we should be getting high-res satellite images showing the extent of damage to critical bases like Sargodha, Jacobabad & Bholari.
Seems that way.
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So,does India confirm the Rafale and S-400 loss?
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Or maybe not...it seems the call from Pakistan's DGMO initiating ceasefire only came in the afternoon. But these strikes were probably done in the early hours of the day. US may have only played the role of a facilitator.
We'll see...there's already reports of fresh firing at Akhnoor sector in J&K. The ceasefire may have already been broken (would depend on what the terms were...cessation of only missile/air strikes would mean artillery/small arms exchange -- which is more or less normal at the LoC -- would continue).
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Haven't heard anything yet, though I doubt some of those claims.
Destruction of an S400 battery/launcher, if true, cannot be hidden from satellite images. The system has a huge footprint.
If the Govt officially announces Op. Sindoor as over, then they might start announcing what the losses & damages were.
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Yep - Pakistan has launched fresh drone & artillery attacks all across the border.
The ceasefire didn't last 3 hours
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Chinese-Made PL-15 Air-To-Air Missile Components Came Down Intact Inside India
The largely intact rear section and other parts of a Chinese-made PL-15E active-radar-guided air-to-air missile came down in India during a battle in the skies along the country’s border with Pakistan earlier this week. While many details about the aerial confrontation between the two countries remain murky, it marked the first known combat use of any version of the PL-15. Recovery of any parts of what is one of China’s most modern air-to-air missiles could be of great interest to authorities in India, as well as to its allies and partners.At a press conference today, Pakistani officials said that Chinese-made J-10 and JF-17 fighters, as well as U.S.-supplied F-16 Vipers, had taken part in the aerial fighting with Indian forces on the night of May 6-7. They also explicitly noted the employment of PL-15E missiles. Pakistani authorities claim 42 of their fighters tangled with 72 Indian jets, downing five of the opposing aircraft – three French-made Rafales, one Russian-made Su-30MKI Flanker, one Russian-made MiG-29 Fulcrum
Chinese-Made PL-15 Air-To-Air Missile Components Came Down Intact Inside India
Pakistani use of PL-15Es against Indian fighters opens up a new vector for intelligence exploitation on one of China's most threatening missiles.
www.twz.com
We already know that the French have admitted the downing of the Rafale. They believe that this is the first time a Rafale has been shot down in combat. They are probably very worried about this incident. After all, India was going to buy 36 more of this type of fighter from France.
The Russians are a different matter. Their reaction, as always, is special. Russian experts say that the downed MiG-29 was old, and as for the Su-30, the Russians blame the Indians themselves, saying that they modified them themselves, so the Russians have nothing to do with it.
In fact, you can understand the Russians: why should a person in wet clothes be afraid of rain?!
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I don’t think France is actually that much worried, it’s just a machine after all. Dassault will probably use that incident to obtain as much feedback as possible.
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Objective maxar osint will come out, and claims vs reality will be cross checked on AFB damage etc. Members can just wait till its all distilled later.
One thing that likely comes out is S-400 (and rest of Indian IAD for its critical nodes) is superior to HQ-9 one.
Both sides have some deficiencies on C-UAS tiers around this IAD though...as to why there was sustained drone use to exhaust IAD etc.
It was interesting that both sides agree that Pakistan AFB's were targetted by IAF jets (missile wise):
India targets PAF bases in dead of night
KARACHI: India has targeted PAF bases in Rawalpindi, Chakwal and Shorkot, but all air force assets are safe, the DG...
www.dawn.com
"“Continuing its naked aggression, India... has fired air-to-surface missiles with its jets,” Lt-Gen Chaudhry said."
(This was what the Indian press briefing said too).
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Objective maxar osint will come out, and claims vs reality will be cross checked on AFB damage etc. Members can just wait till its all distilled later.
One thing that likely comes out is S-400 (and rest of Indian IAD for its critical nodes) is superior to HQ-9 one.
Both sides have some deficiencies on C-UAS tiers around this IAD though...as to why there was sustained drone use to exhaust IAD etc.
It was interesting that both sides agree that Pakistan AFB's were targetted by IAF jets (missile wise):
India targets PAF bases in dead of night
KARACHI: India has targeted PAF bases in Rawalpindi, Chakwal and Shorkot, but all air force assets are safe, the DG...www.dawn.com
"“Continuing its naked aggression, India... has fired air-to-surface missiles with its jets,” Lt-Gen Chaudhry said."
(This was what the Indian press briefing said too).
At to why India went to pak military infra as well, it was addressed here:
Pakistan-India Conflict (2025)
There are some engagements going on over Jammu right now, we will have to see what that all is later. The problem is its a heavy drone attack too it seems, so have to give time to play out again.
defencehub.live
Damien Symon is good OSINT page to follow btw.
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Bro, I am honestly curious how did you come to that conclusion? Did you gathered sufficient evidence from past few days events? i haven't specifically looked into the performance of both countries ADs and had my focus on Air battles. But in general afaik, PAF HQ9 BE uses new GaN based AESA MFR/FCR compared to gravestone's old passive ESA tech. Also it is no secret that Chinese has left the Russians behind in electronics and sensor tech. Add to that S400's performance in Ukraine. Not nearly as good as advertised. It quite consistently failed against and got elemented by not so sophisticated stuff. (HIMARS/ATACMS)
Rajendra Chola
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India was content with initial missile strikes on terror compounds and the second night was spent mostly on defending against drones.
The immediate escalation point was the usage of Fateh or similar BM which was intercepted in a trajectory on way to Delhi.
It was after this incident, India decided to escalate and attack major air bases on PAF with token attacks implying, we are violating your air defences and can attack anytime.
As far as fighters are concerned, I believe from OSINTs, India have lost 2 fighters & one large drone. But India will officially update the losses after Operation Sindoor ends.
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I said "likely", its not a conclusion by any stretch yet.
For that we will have to wait for the OSINT to get lot clearer (from maxar et al.) for both sides AFB.
Remember AFB's ought to be the most protected infra, and A2G missiles really shouldn't be landing doing major damage at this conflict level to begin with:
Any force can write down/assert things in technical specs (whatever they actually are on the system is another matter in the end, no one is going to have neutral verifying types sniffing around there)....the proof is in the pudding.
Along with the IAD layered around the top guy.
Indian MIC leverages a lot here....from its missile/space ecosystem.
It is not one that has a BM stockpile for decades unable to produce even one SLV, when "even NK and Iran have".
Rajendra Chola
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S400 are not used in isolation in India. It’s part of varied & complex AD system comprising of QRSAM, MRSAM (Indo Israeli Barak 8), Akash SRSAM, BMD(Ballistic Missile Defences), S125, L70s upgraded with anti drone capabilities, non kinetic anti drone capabilities (military didn’t explain what system) and finally S400. In addition in some areas, we even converted old supplies of R73 into SAM systems. My understanding is some suicide drones did get through our defences but none of their missiles made through our AD. L70s, Akash and Barak 8 had a very major role to play in the defence. S400 is said to have engaged PAF fighter at a long range & bought it down.
In Ukraine, S400s are against US EW warfare systems. In Syria, S400 was mostly standalone & facing US Israeli Turkey & other NATO system.
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Past the AFB "totally destroyed" claims by Pakistan (w.r.t sat intel to come shortly)....there is also an objective list of other claims to cross-verify with OSINT that comes out:
- "6 BM's" launched from armitsar, landing on amritsar itself
- Brahmos storage facility at Beas destroyed (the cam footage being spread was debunked already as 7 hours old iirc prior to the strike claims)
- S-400 "destroyed" that Gessler already posted about.
Simply objective evidence will come out as to cross reference with each side's list of claims and who's then clearly fibbed a lot more.
Some OSINT guys already have a good hunch just from video footage at time of impact on ground....as to what was being reported on twitter etc by civvies etc.
But its good to give a bunch of days/weeks.
Its not going to be many days and weeks looking at one shack in balakot as to if there's 3 holes in the roof or not.
There is plenty for maxar to do, past the initial targets from the SCALP and HAMMER payloads.
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fair enough.
But do you apply this level of scrutiny to Western Or Indian systems? Did India really develop AESA tech? Sure DRDO published some photos and showcased some stuff in Defense fairs that look like AESA components. But we will actually never know until whatever platform it is integrated into excels in real combat? Or perhaps French were scamming us all alone. Given their much hyped Rafale got smoked while supposedly having high performance AESA and top notch EW suite. The proof is in the pudding. I would find this way of thinking irritating. Given we don’t actually have access to any classified technical specs of these systems, something has to be taken at face value to begin with or we will never know anything for sure Or make any meaningful value judgement.
PAF simply has 1x HQ-9BE battery. Instead of deploying it defensively protecting any one of 9 air bases attacked, it could be deployed to offensively in attempt to get IAF jets. Or even if it is deployed defensively it won’t be protecting more than a single AFB. We have to get into a lot more specifics (how and where it was deployed and then how much of Indian strike package got through there) to judge HQ9BE's performance.
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