Live Conflict Pakistan-India Conflict (2025)

[TR_123456]

That's the thing with relying on unnamed sources. You take the good with the bad.

There was a German guy on Youtube who explained everything without bias,wanted to post it but cant find it anymore.
When i find again it i'll post.

 

[Zapper]

An almost intact PL-15...seems like PAF was mostly relying on "spray and pray" at DMAX ranges hoping to hit IAF jets

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920714688842616942

 

[Nilgiri]

All We can say is, PAF lack adequate numbers of AD compared to IAF. Former only has 1x battery of HQ16EF and 1x battery of HQ9BE. While the later has an order of magnitude more AD systems.

This is what then starts to bring the next layer of discussion with economics and geopolitical strategy/interest.

As to the costs of beefing up IAD for Pakistan conventionally (especially more optimal return in policy change to India on Kashmir "non conventionals")....compared to relative costs for IND to do the same w.r.t brahmos and its support (penetration aid) ecosystem and how these advance and their longer term fiscal supports.

As to the costs for China to have same/dispositive IAD intensity on its nodes/basing in Tibetan plateau (given the baked in issue here compared to Eastern China) and also the trade off on that w.r.t its threat analysis from Eastern vector commensurately (Indian interests/threat picture on Tibet are near 0 relatively speaking compared to what US and Japan can muster upon things that matter much more to China in that war whatever the % chances are they each calculate at various tiers).

i.e what may just never come to pass between IND-PRC, but rather what may dictate how/where leveraging and force pinning/deterrence posturing can largely be done anyway given Tibet is simply a very unique thing in end compared to Eastern China. The vastness and context (and massive larger threat profile from another vector on other side) that Pakistan doesn't have in its case....along with not having the same economy/wherewithall as India (much less China) too.

These (how many brahmos et al overwhelm some other amount of HQ-9 et al) basically are the static considerations that fix the relatively more tactical stuff around it. In Pakistan's case it is significant that India has demonstrated it is willing to engage here and illustrate its underneath a nuclear threshold in the context between these two countries.

 

[Nilgiri]

Will maybe pick this up later more....regarding the dynamic side of things first so we get an understanding of what I mean by all the X factors (no plan survives first contact with the enemy etc).

A lot has to do with energy and timings in the various "states" of engagement of two large moving bodies with gaps and their crucial support sensoring and weapon apexes.

A bit like judo or wrestling there are optimal times with what you sense and can constrain the opponent in what he's already commited to or is turning away in rotation etc (compared to head on).

He has his mix of A2G and A2A...whereas you are fully A2A. What formations are developed and already sensed + predicted versus what you keep as relatively unformed to take shots optimally and so on. Your EW sensory state and so on.

The IAF lacks the heavy SEAD+DEAD+A2A of say the USAF (or risk it against nuclear escalation potential even if it did have this dispositive pressure like US had against Vietnam but held itself back on) to make up for lost initiative of large strike force gathering (w.r.t whatever real time intel Pakistan has from say China etc). i.e the reason to not do say massive drone and missile strikes on IAD first thing to forcefully put that as out of commision as possible with what India more reliably has. To then better "guarantee" the A2G dominant wave after it etc.

All the %'s add up when every % counts when you are spamming say both SAM and A2A as well. Though the tradeoff to its degree is the opponent does get his A2G off to the degree he has committed too.

Its a tradeoff in the end...the asset quality apexes are not as relevant in say a pure head to head situation as there are dynamic coefficients and sensoring and timing advantages.

Then the issue of this being a one-off, it could lie in various places of the N-distr of say doing this 100+ times over in a campaign....i.e is it average expected result or is it more atypical one etc.

Folks can compare and contrast this with what Binkov put out just now:

 

[Nilgiri]

An almost intact PL-15...seems like PAF was mostly relying on "spray and pray" at DMAX ranges hoping to hit IAF jets

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920714688842616942

It would be foolish of India to not take the PL-15 and PAF tactics+training+doctrine with utmost seriousness.

 

[Rajendra Chola]

Most guided munitions has a CEP of 10m these days.



It actually doesn’t. Ukraine war demonstrated similar targeting capabilities by leveraging commercially available Sat imagery.

Munitions were released from the air facing substantial challenges from enemy interceptors & AD. It’s challenging from that aspect. And in addition it passed through AD through complex maneuvers & hit that target.

Real time ISR & tracking with up to date information through Indian capabilities . Ukraine as pointed out had entire western intelligence providing this capabilities to them. Indian real time ISR hasn’t gone through war time test & now it has.

 

[contricusc]

Folks can compare and contrast this with what Binkov put out just now:

Haha, I just watched Binkov’s video on Youtube and came here to post it and ask you what you think about his perspective, but you were faster than me and posted it here first.

I think his explanation seems pretty realistic and confirms my initial assumption that the IAF was not expecting PAF to fight back, and the plan was to just strike a few targets without too much escalation. This is why they were not well prepared against a counterattack. If the IAF had expected the PAF to fight back, they would have probably executed differently and avoided losing the jets.

In the subsequent strikes, India proved capable of striking deeper targets in Pakistan without losing any more jets, so they clearly have the capability to strike safely if they don’t underestimate their opponent.

 

[Paro]

This round of conflict demonstrated that India could cripple Pakistan’s infrastructure in a high-intensity engagement if the conflict persisted for more than a few days. However, when it comes to symbolic strikes like the opening day or like Balakot, their effectiveness is questionable due to the inevitable attrition that occurs in the opening day of the conflict. This is somewhat predictable when considering the size of the military. Statistically, every war will experience high attrition during the initial days and then drastically decline thereafter.

On the other hand, this conflict also revealed that Pakistan lacks the resilience to endure even minimal levels of attrition. A significant portion of their military prowess is based on optics rather than tangible military gains.

 

[BaburKhan]

India is concerned over the AMRAAM Sale by the US to Turkey, that the Missiles could land in the Hand of Pakistan.

MSN

 

[Paro]

India is concerned over the AMRAAM Sale by the US to Turkey, that the Missiles could land in the Hand of Pakistan.

MSN

Did indian foreign office comment on it or just the overhyped media?

 

[Spitfire9]

All bluster and rhetoric from the Indians. Apart from that, they aint gonna do shit. 2019 is still fresh in their brains and this time we wont be too lenient and shoot down 1 plane.

In retrospect, it was not all bluster and rhetoric.
You shot down 1 Indian fighter in 2019 to be lenient? Don't make me laugh.

I don't like misinformation or propaganda or conspiracy theories. Anyone know the source of the downed Rafale photo?

 

[Paro]

 

[Iskander]

'Rafale's finest hour has passed': Indonesia suspends purchase of French fighter jets

Indonesia's pricey $8,1 billion order for 42 Rafale fighters from France has been thrown into serious doubt after the jet's disastrous debut in recent fighting between India and Pakistan. aviation.

The purchase of the aircraft has been suspended. The contract could be scuppered by alarming allegations of their poor performance in recent military operations. The Rafale's finest hour has passed
- says the publication Galaxia Militar.

We are talking about Islamabad’s claims, partially confirmed by relevant footage, about the defeat of French-origin fighters by PL-15E long-range air-to-air missiles launched from the J-10C (missiles, as well as their carriers, were purchased from China). According to local sources, in solidarity with Pakistani pilots, Chinese pilots painted symbols of the aircraft that Islamabad claims were shot down on their J-10C aircraft - 3 Rafale, one Su-30MKI and MiG-21, and one Heron UAV: "It is a symbol of unbreakable brotherhood and a clear warning to opponents"

As Galaxia Militar notes, the Rafale's claims of failure have raised concerns among Indonesia's top defense planners. While the claims remain largely unverified, they have prompted the Defense Ministry to "quietly begin testing the Rafale's operational reliability."

With the first batch of Rafales scheduled to be delivered in early 2026, officials in Jakarta now face a delicate but important decision: whether to move forward, pause, or change course.
- explained in the publication.

The deal signed in 2022 to acquire Rafale jets equipped with advanced radars and weapons systems was meant to provide a leap forward for the country in modernising its air force.

But news Pakistan's shooting down of three Rafales in a recent clash with India has undermined the jet's combat reputation
- the author writes.

New Delhi has yet to officially confirm or deny the losses, but India's Air Marshal A.K. Bharti said "we are in a state of war, combat losses are expected." France's Dassault Aviation, the manufacturer of the Rafale, has also remained silent. But sources say Paris is conducting its own investigation, examining radar records, telemetry and imagery to determine the veracity of the reports.

In Jakarta, the news did not go unnoticed.
- declares the author.

However, as the author explains, the Rafale's combat experience in Libya, Mali and Syria was largely limited to ground-attack missions in asymmetric warfare against technologically inferior opponents. But the aircraft did not engage in combat against equal foes: "If the losses are confirmed, it would be a serious blow to France".

Shares in jet maker Dassault fell nearly 10% in the five days following news of the fighter jets being shot down, and analysts are now warning that potential buyers may begin to reconsider their purchasing strategies.

We cannot afford to buy a system that works well only on paper. We need fighting authority, not promises.
- noted a source in the Indonesian Air Force.

https://en.topwar.ru/264738-zvezdnyj-chas-rafale-proshel-indonezija-priostanavlivaet-zakupku-francuzskih-istrebitelej.html

 

[Nilgiri]

Haha, I just watched Binkov’s video on Youtube and came here to post it and ask you what you think about his perspective, but you were faster than me and posted it here first.

I think his explanation seems pretty realistic and confirms my initial assumption that the IAF was not expecting PAF to fight back, and the plan was to just strike a few targets without too much escalation. This is why they were not well prepared against a counterattack. If the IAF had expected the PAF to fight back, they would have probably executed differently and avoided losing the jets.

In the subsequent strikes, India proved capable of striking deeper targets in Pakistan without losing any more jets, so they clearly have the capability to strike safely if they don’t underestimate their opponent.

We will also have to wait for more details to come out first (say A2A vs SAM hits or other reasons etc from the corralling, friendlies in front of you, sensoring and turnaround timings etc.... and other things I mentioned previously when you are constrained with A2G payloads at same time and your A2A air dominance platform is supposed to be MKI which has its drawbacks now)....and then piece things together in more measured way as objectively as possible....as to larger disadvantages baked into pitcher vs receiver in this low surprise, low initiative, low (opening) SEAD/DEAD etc context to begin with.

It will take time. Have to always bear in mind one side is democracy (with those processes at hand) and the other is military regime wearing rest of govt around it like a mask. Hence the clear difference in what was claimed as damage on Indian AFBs (from fateh missile barrages etc) compared to the objective reality.

Military regime format largely works on short-term narratives and what sticks on dartboard from that.

 

[Levina]

There was a German guy on Youtube who explained everything without bias,wanted to post it but cant find it anymore.
When i find again it i'll post.

pls post the link

 

[Levina]

India is concerned over the AMRAAM Sale by the US to Turkey, that the Missiles could land in the Hand of Pakistan.

MSN

If it lands in Pakistan's hands-- then its bad news for US and not India.

 

[TR_123456]

pls post the link

Well well well,who do we have here?

 

[Levina]

Well well well,who do we have here?

Teacher!

 

[TR_123456]

Teacher!

Welcome back,where have you been?

 

[Levina]

Welcome back,where have you been?

Busy with life and work. How about you?