AKP supporters wanted to 'punish' the government for economic and political failures, say analysts
www.middleeasteye.net
I've heard this argument a lot that "9% decrease in voter turnout from 2023 is all akp voters". If you add YRP, BBP, Hudapar to MHP and AKP votes, you get like 47.7%. If all or majority of 9% decrease in turnout was due to AKP voters this would mean that Cumhur have actually added to their base to the tune of 3%. This is obviously comical.
Big numbers of opposition voters lost all hope after 2023 election; a lot of my friends stopped following politics completely, unsubscribing from news accounts on social media and stuff. A lot of them who are all opposition voters didn't vote and couldn't care less about local elections.
Anger doesn't result in inaction; apathy does. Angry AKP voter would most likely show this by voting for another party, mostly YRP. Apathetic opposition voters stayed home. The increase in CHP share of votes comes from mostly IYIP (lost 6%), and partially from others like DEM (lost 4%), IP (lost 1.5%) MHP (lost 5%), and presumably some from AKP. The opposition vote in the 2023 parliamentary election was 49.5%. This time it is 51%. That's a 1.5% increase, so most of CHP votes comes from reshuffling of votes from smaller parties to CHP.
As I've said time and time again the regular opposition person in our country is just opposed to AKP; that makes them a single issue voter: their issue is opposition to AKP. If you drag stuff around and get muddled into ideological battles you tend to lose votes, even if you're a Kurdish nationalist party. The results of this election and the perception which it creates for CHP will accelerate this trend and exodus from smaller parties will increase.
You can disregard mass trends, likes, attitudes and approaches you see on the internet and social media. They do not represent a random sample; they are overwhelmingly young isolated males and this demographic circle jerk and algorithmic reinforecment creates this unified outlook. To my estimate it is 5% of the electorate, and their turnout seems to be much lower than average.