Possibility of violence in Ireland over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

[Nilgiri]

A video which gives to an extend the scale of the Loyalist man power in the conflict to come. All the band members and people wearing the colours around their shoulders are Loyalists, the Loyalist paramilitaries have a man power access to all the bands, the Orange Order and Apprentice Boy's. Some 20,000 men.

A really fascinating yet disturbing topic. Thanks for posting.

 

[RogerRanger]

 

[RogerRanger]

Same hilarious stories from a man who fought in the Troubles from 1979-1980. He has a great channel too, please look into his other videos.

 

[Nilgiri]

@RogerRanger looking into N. Ireland voting in its constituencies, I noticed the "switch" (from orange/blue to green) is largely one way and in about 7 or so areas (I put black arrows to point them out):

Has this mostly been due to migration from rest of Ireland to N. Ireland (esp after GFA)?

Also I noticed in the sinn fein irish nationalist march video you posted that one of their guys is carrying an ulster flag (with the hand etc).

I thought that kind of flag was more a unionist/loyalist thing? Any reason its found in this march?

 

[RogerRanger]

@RogerRanger looking into N. Ireland voting in its constituencies, I noticed the "switch" (from orange/blue to green) is largely one way and in about 7 or so areas (I put black arrows to point them out):


View attachment 43251

Has this mostly been due to migration from rest of Ireland to N. Ireland (esp after GFA)?

Also I noticed in the sinn fein irish nationalist march video you posted that one of their guys is carrying an ulster flag (with the hand etc).

I thought that kind of flag was more a unionist/loyalist thing? Any reason its found in this march?

It is a number of factors. Migration is one of them, birthrates is another, Unionists leaving to other Unionist area's or Britain. The political shift in NI away from nationalist sectarianism and religion to normal political stuff and economics. The bringing of SF into the political fold in NI and ROI. Its all those factors. As well as the rise of Liberalism in Ireland, pushing out Republicanism and Loyalists as the dominant political ideologies.

The Red hand is an old symbol of Ulster. From before the Norman conquest of Ireland, its to do with a boat race between one lord and another for who could control Ulster, as one lord was losing the race he cut off his own hand and threw it, so he touched ground first and won the race, and the Lordship of Ulster. Its used by both sides, just the Loyalists use the English flag with the Red Hand and a Crown, the Irish use Green and Yellow colours. So its a common thing for the 4 provinces of Ireland in Republican movements.

 

[Ryder]

Protestants and Catholics that were married actually had segragated graves.

They never were buried next to each other.

I know its more than religion but its pretty tragic about this conflict.

 

[Anastasius]

Protestants and Catholics that were married actually had segragated graves.

They never were buried next to each other.

I know its more than religion but its pretty tragic about this conflict.

Reminds me of an anecdote I once heard:

A tourist gets held up by an armed man in Northern Ireland who asks "Catholic or Protestant?"

The tourist says "I am an atheist."

The armed man contemplates this for a moment then asks "Catholic atheist or Protestant atheist?"

 

[RogerRanger]

Something important which I haven't talked about until now is the Loyalists in Britain, mainly in Scotland. https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/p...ern-ireland-protocol-march-in-glasgow-3432418

Most of the Loyalists in NI are descended from Scottish Protestants, so the family and cultural links are huge. With Glasgow Rangers F.C being a huge base for Loyalist support in Scotland and by far the biggest football club in Scotland. The Scottish Orange Order has a small, but robust membership doing regular marches around Scotland with various local Scottish bands.

So the Loyalists will generate support from these people and places too.

A wider issue is the spread of the conflict in NI to the rest of Britain, as Scottish independence and Scottish nationalism, meets with Irish nationalism, it means the Loyalists we confronted with a number of factions in Britain and Ireland, which they will meet in the same way. This is why Scottish independence is a non-starter as the Loyalists will go to war in Scotland to prevent it, just as the Loyalists in Ireland did.

There also is a lot of Irish Republicanism in Scotland and supporting the SNP, in Liverpool, Manchester, London which massive Celtic Irish populations in those cities. So it is a very fractured picture, once the conflict in NI restarts, this could cause a wider conflict across Britain, which forces latching onto the NI conflict to further their own opposition to the British state or the SNP.

This is actually something I worry about in Britain, the widening of the conflict, where the British state which is not seen as legitimate in my area's is faced with local conflicts, not from the Irish, but from the Loyalists or right-wing nationalists themselves. In this the British state could only ally with the Republican forces and crush the Loyalists/right wing forces, but in doing to destroys the people which support the British state. Or the British state will have to give in to the demands of the Loyalists/right wing forces, which I believe is the most likely outcome.

 

[Nilgiri]

Protestants and Catholics that were married actually had segragated graves.

They never were buried next to each other.

I know its more than religion but its pretty tragic about this conflict.

Catholic atheist or Protestant atheist?

Another thing I noticed in the earlier sinn fein march video around timestamp 6.20 - 6.40 is the typical IRA support towards PKK.

I got discussing that stuff (from tamil tiger alliance with those two groups) with @merzifonlu @HTurk and some other turkish fellas before.

 

[RogerRanger]

Another thing I noticed in the earlier sinn fein march video around timestamp 6.20 - 6.40 is the typical IRA support towards PKK.

I got discussing that stuff (from tamil tiger alliance with those two groups) with @merzifonlu @HTurk and some other turkish fellas before.

Yes excellent point. The Irish Republicans support PKK, Catalan independence and Palestine. And the group in that video is this group here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saoradh

Saoradh is more with the Irish National Liberation Organization, SF has moved more liberal in recent 10 years, so generate more establishment support in the media and move away from the violence the groups mentioned earlier.

The Loyalists also support Israel, I don't think they support Turkey and Spain though, its mainly done because the other side likes Palestine, so the Loyalists support Israel to annoy them.

 

[Nilgiri]

Yes excellent point. The Irish Republicans support PKK, Catalan independence and Palestine. And the group in that video is this group here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saoradh

Saoradh is more with the Irish National Liberation Organization, SF has moved more liberal in recent 10 years, so generate more establishment support in the media and move away from the violence the groups mentioned earlier.

The Loyalists also support Israel, I don't think they support Turkey and Spain though, its mainly done because the other side likes Palestine, so the Loyalists support Israel to annoy them.

Basically during cold war era, leftism and separatism often went hand in hand ....because it provided most angles to undermine the existing setup.

These groups (leftist/marxist separatist/revolutionaries) all buddied up easily as well.... and got ample international financing and weapons smuggling set up (between them) too.

So old habits die hard even now.....they stay fond of their comrades causes.

 

[Nilgiri]

Here was where that earlier convo took place (can use quote arrow):

PKK, IRA, LTTE, FARC, PLO etc etc, they all had various dalliances in that era....because they involved the same arms trafficking smuggling groups essentially.

 

[RogerRanger]

Orange Order walk on Toronto in 2013.

House of Orange song by my favourite folk singer Stan Rogers about the Troubles.

 

[RogerRanger]

Basically during cold war era, leftism and separatism often went hand in hand ....because it provided most angles to undermine the existing setup.

These groups (leftist/marxist separatist/revolutionaries) all buddied up easily as well.... and got ample international financing and weapons smuggling set up (between them) too.

So old habits die hard even now.....they stay fond of their comrades causes.

Yes thanks, I didn't realize all that. The Irish Republicans also wanted support from the NAZI's, as did the Scottish nationalists. The Loyalists smuggled weapons from South Africa, through Israel and Lebanon, with the Christian fighters in Lebanon. And the IRA got weapons from Gaddafi in Libya. Also the Republicans got support from France and Germany and USA in the 1600-1700's from France. And from the USA and German through the 1800's and into the 1900's. The Americans still support the IRA to this day, with IRA friends of Ireland group. Its anything that weakens Britain the Irish Republicans will support.

 

[Nilgiri]

Orange Order walk on Toronto in 2013.

House of Orange song by my favourite folk singer Stan Rogers about the Troubles.

Chinese tourists taking pictures....its just a fun little quaint parade

 

[Nilgiri]

The Americans still support the IRA to this day

Oh I know. My history teacher in the 8th grade (a long time ago).... we got talking on a lot and he told me once his mother was big time IRA financier in that part of the US he was from (this was interior Indiana iirc)....right to her last days.

Irish people, lot of them carry a big ole grudge to the british heh....over a very long time.

The Kennedy presidency I believe especially added a lot of extra impetus as Irish catholic was perceived to finally broken white house barrier set before by a more WASP hierarchy preceding it.

 

[RogerRanger]

Oh I know. My history teacher in the 8th grade (a long time ago).... we got talking on a lot and he told me once his mother was big time IRA financier in that part of the US he was from (this was interior Indiana iirc)....right to her last days.

Irish people, lot of them carry a big ole grudge to the british heh....over a very long time.

The Kennedy presidency I believe especially added a lot of extra impetus as Irish catholic was perceived to finally broken white house barrier set before by a more WASP hierarchy preceding it.

Yeah and Biden is an Irish WASP, or an Irish of Anglo-Norman descent. He plays on being Irish, but he is really English ancestry. The WASP or 'White Anglo-Saxon Puritan who controlled the USA have a lot in comment with the Irish Republicans, in opposing the old English system of the Normans. Which has been put into USA and Ireland. And yeah the Irish do hold a massive grudge mainly because of the famine, interestingly the Loyalists in the North who suffered just as much from the famine, don't hold any grudge over it, but of the British state trying to force a United Ireland on them. Take a look at the Irish government, see how many of them have English origin last name or Norman last names. Also Sinn Fein was founded by a Welsh person. De Valera was part Portuguese and born in the US. So there is a lot of ideological and ethnic stuff going on.

 

[Blackbeardsgoldfish]

If I recall correctly, and that's a shaky if, then the support base the IRA held with the irish-american demographic was the by far most important in terms of finances and armaments supplies. Whatever Gaddafi, ETA and the eastern bloc supplied was overshadowed by the smuggled goods coming in from overseas, and the IRA could have continued the conflict on that base alone.

That's what makes the Troubles one of the most interesting conflicts of the Cold War to me. A terrorist organization with a strongly leftist political ideology that fights against America's most powerful and important european ally, all the while being supported by american citizens, who had a political reality build on anti-communism and anti-leftism. And this went on for 30 years!

Another thing that I thought about a few days back was how a renewed conflict would potentially be fought... Because if what Roger says is true and the Loyalists have vastly more manpower, arms and better organization than the republicans, or whatever remnants are still active, then what can they realistically do? Taking the conflict to Britain itself and resorting to bombings doesn't seem to unlikely, depending on what loyalists will do in NI itself. They've proven themselves capable of massive attacks in major, A-Tier cities, and loyalists and republicans will have been very busy rebuilding their arsenals since pre-brexit...
Will there be targeted killing of media personnel? Control over the narrative of the conflict held by the British state during the Troubles was a major plus for the domestic and international PR for the government back then, maybe the republicans will try to pry this weapon away from them.

@RogerRanger @Nilgiri

 

[RogerRanger]

If I recall correctly, and that's a shaky if, then the support base the IRA held with the irish-american demographic was the by far most important in terms of finances and armaments supplies. Whatever Gaddafi, ETA and the eastern bloc supplied was overshadowed by the smuggled goods coming in from overseas, and the IRA could have continued the conflict on that base alone.

That's what makes the Troubles one of the most interesting conflicts of the Cold War to me. A terrorist organization with a strongly leftist political ideology that fights against America's most powerful and important european ally, all the while being supported by american citizens, who had a political reality build on anti-communism and anti-leftism. And this went on for 30 years!

Another thing that I thought about a few days back was how a renewed conflict would potentially be fought... Because if what Roger says is true and the Loyalists have vastly more manpower, arms and better organization than the republicans, or whatever remnants are still active, then what can they realistically do? Taking the conflict to Britain itself and resorting to bombings doesn't seem to unlikely, depending on what loyalists will do in NI itself. They've proven themselves capable of massive attacks in major, A-Tier cities, and loyalists and republicans will have been very busy rebuilding their arsenals since pre-brexit...
Will there be targeted killing of media personnel? Control over the narrative of the conflict held by the British state during the Troubles was a major plus for the domestic and international PR for the government back then, maybe the republicans will try to pry this weapon away from them.

@RogerRanger @Nilgiri

Its important to understand that the Irish/IRA don't want a conflict, as all they have to do now is wait and everything they want will happen. The Loyalists are the ones trying to change things. Before it was the other way round. So I don't expect an IRA campaign in Britain or even in NI. The Irish will be doing everything they can to keep a lid on the violence, so will the EU and British.

The Loyalists first goal is to break the NI protocol, second the GFA, powersharing and the NI assembly. Only then will the Loyalists move to start killing media people and Liberal politicians and working to drive Liberalism out of NI. Lastly is the ethnic cleansing against Republican area's of NI. I expect this operations to take 18 months.

How the Irish or IRA react is going to be determined by what Britain does. If Britain sends in its forces to support the Irish/EU protocol they will simply support Britain. If Britain works with the Loyalists to give them part of what they want to limit the violence, at that point the Irish/IRA will start a campaign against British area's/infrastructure in NI. However as for an armed campaign in Britain or attacks on the media in Britain, I don't think the Irish state wants that, so it won't happen.

 

[HTurk]

@Nilgiri

Coincidentally, I was in Dublin a couple of months ago and they are indeed obsessed with Palestinian, Kurdish, Kashmiri and other minority topics.

The bookstores, though, were full with publications about the Northern Irish society and how the North is increasingly becoming pro-IR. It was interesting to see Irland but the people are anything but unique. In fact, Irland was very, very similar to the UK in many ways. What I'm trying to say is that reality beats ideology. The anti-capitalist, leftist average Irish citizen should first fight against the national laws that have turned Irland into a tax haven for big multinational corporates. They voluntarily assist the evil 1% to steal the money and resources of their beloved European brethren.

What I'm trying to say is:

Just another first world society with too much money and time on hand.