Defence Q&A S-400 or F-35 for Turkey ? |Debate and Discussion

[what]

Another embarassing and probably futile step by Hulusi Akar in Hürriyet. He proposed a Cyprus-Crete S300 kind of scenario to solve the S400 issue. The government fucked up so bad, they are now offering putting the 2bln € system somewhere else, in another place to get rid of the sanctions and access to F35.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1359050404454137856

 

[the]

There is no guarentee that we’ll get F35. They can postpone it for as long as they want. So you like the idea they give us F35 in 10-15 years ?

If Akar/MoD is willing to negotiate then I assume that they've considered the time range they may receive the F35s in. They would be of marginal use in 10-15 years if the TF-X and Goksungar programme is completed.

If nothing bad/dramatic happens to worsen relations with the US then I would expect Turkish F35s to be delivered in 1-3 years.

 

[Combat-Master]

There is no guarentee that we’ll get F35. They can postpone it for as long as they want. So you like the idea they give us F35 in 10-15 years ?

Well they lied about the Patriot missiles being on the table, Trump himself said the Obama administration did not sell the Patriot missiles to Turkey. S400 was the cause they were waiting for to kick Turkey off the F-35 programme, remember Israel also was not happy about Turkey being in the programme so the Israeli lobby pushed as well.

I'm happy S400 was purchased, good decision.

 

[GoatsMilk]

S400 was a dumb dumb decision. Gained no leverage with the US and lost Turkey leverage against Russia since Russia exploited the rift to openly kill Turkish fighters. While ak party were trying to "convince" people it was assad, the Russians then showed the strike on live TV to insult erdogan even more. Thank Allah our army got moving in idlib, otherwise erdogan would have yet again brought our nation "great shame". Fortunately since that Russian strike on Turkish soldiers, the Russians paid a heavy price for it in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan.

But you know whats dumber? Running back to the US. You buy that s400 knowing you will never look to buy another American fighter jet again. Otherwise the americans will utilise your desperation and stupidity against you. This is whats happening to erdogan right now.

Weapons are sold to Turkey to control her actions, erdogan and ak party lost sight of this. The americans don't sell Turkey F35 because they want Turkey to be strong, they sell them so they can influence and control Turkey.

Once you made that dumb decision to buy trash russian air defence systems, you stick with it. You say to the Americans look either you give us the shit we paid for or we are going somewhere else. No if's no but's.

That way if they are going to sell it you they will, if they are not then you are not dragging a dead horse. As it is now they are exploiting erdogans panic for maximum gains.

It constantly shocks me how terrible ak party politics are. At least we have moved on from the really dumb davutoglu days where everything was a failure, but we are still pretty bad. Still makes me laugh that the clown davutoglu was made PM by erdogan, only putting his stupid son in law in charge of the economy was worse.

the enemy will always lay traps along your path, if you are wise you will avoid them. If you are stupid you will step into them and then say "see i told you he was the enemy".

 

[mulj]

S400 was a dumb dumb decision. Gained no leverage with the US and lost Turkey leverage against Russia since Russia exploited the rift to openly kill Turkish fighters. While ak party were trying to "convince" people it was assad, the Russians then showed the strike on live TV to insult erdogan even more. Thank Allah our army got moving in idlib, otherwise erdogan would have yet again brought our nation "great shame". Fortunately since that Russian strike on Turkish soldiers, the Russians paid a heavy price for it in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan.

But you know whats dumber? Running back to the US. You buy that s400 knowing you will never look to buy another American fighter jet again. Otherwise the americans will utilise your desperation and stupidity against you. This is whats happening to erdogan right now.

Weapons are sold to Turkey to control her actions, erdogan and ak party lost sight of this. The americans don't sell Turkey F35 because they want Turkey to be strong, they sell them so they can influence and control Turkey.

Once you made that dumb decision to buy trash russian air defence systems, you stick with it. You say to the Americans look either you give us the shit we paid for or we are going somewhere else. No if's no but's.

That way if they are going to sell it you they will, if they are not then you are not dragging a dead horse. As it is now they are exploiting erdogans panic for maximum gains.

It constantly shocks me how terrible ak party politics are. At least we have moved on from the really dumb davutoglu days where everything was a failure, but we are still pretty bad. Still makes me laugh that the clown davutoglu was made PM by erdogan, only putting his stupid son in law in charge of the economy was worse.

the enemy will always lay traps along your path, if you are wise you will avoid them. If you are stupid you will step into them and then say "see i told you he was the enemy".

What is annual export and tourist income from russia, that is what you gained and maintained.
Pissing of usa and having that counter leverage is not bad thing per se also.

 

[Deliorman]

What is annual export and tourist income from russia, that is what you gained and maintained.
Pissing of usa and having that counter leverage is not bad thing per se also.

In 2020 Turkey and the US had an anual trade volume of 21$ billion with Turkey exporting 11$ billion worth of products to America and America exporting 10$ worth of products to Turkey. Turkey has a 1$ billion positive trade balance with the US for 2020.

Couldn’t find stats for 2020 but for 2019 the total trade between Russia and Turkey was worth 26,3$ billion. Of that 3,8$ billion is Turkish exports to Russia and 22,5$ billion is Russian exports to Turkey. That means that Turkey has a negative trade balance of close to 19$ billion with Russia every year... on top of the fact that Turkey exports 3 times less to it compared to America.

So which country is a better market for Turkish exporters anyway? How much tomatoes and oranges Turkey needs to export and how many more drunk Russian tourists the hoteliers need to feed like pigs in their all inclusive resorts for 400€ a week to close that 19$ billion gap in trade?

 

[Zafer]

Thank Allah our army got moving in idlib, otherwise erdogan would have yet again brought our nation "great shame".

Let it be known that the Turkish army moves on the order of the commander in chief Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

 

[Yasar_TR]

In 2020 Turkey and the US had an anual trade volume of 21$ billion with Turkey exporting 11$ billion worth of products to America and America exporting 10$ worth of products to Turkey. Turkey has a 1$ billion positive trade balance with the US for 2020.

Couldn’t find stats for 2020 but for 2019 the total trade between Russia and Turkey was worth 26,3$ billion. Of that 3,8$ billion is Turkish exports to Russia and 22,5$ billion is Russian exports to Turkey. That means that Turkey has a negative trade balance of close to 19$ billion with Russia every year... on top of the fact that Turkey exports 3 times less to it compared to America.

So which country is a better market for Turkish exporters anyway? How much tomatoes and oranges Turkey needs to export and how many more drunk Russian tourists the hoteliers need to feed like pigs in their all inclusive resorts for 400€ a week to close that 19$ billion gap in trade?

Russian imports from Turkey in 2019 was 4.98 billion dollars

Russia Imports from Turkey - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 1996-2021 Historical

Russia Imports from Turkey was US$6.51 Billion during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Russia Imports from Turkey - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on November of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Russian exports to Turkey in 2019 was 21.15 billion dollars

Russia Exports to Turkey - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 1996-2021 Historical

Russia Exports to Turkey was US$26.43 Billion during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Russia Exports to Turkey - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on November of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Turkey received 7 million Russian tourists in 2019. They spent approximately 607 dollars per capita . That means they left 4.25 billion dollars as revenue.
So for Russia , Turkey’s ;
outgoing : 21.5 billion dollars
income : 4.25 + 4.98 = 9.23 billion dollars


ps tourism income is not exports!

 

[Deliorman]

Russian imports from Turkey in 2019 was 4.98 billion dollars

Russia Imports from Turkey - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 1996-2021 Historical

Russia Imports from Turkey was US$6.51 Billion during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Russia Imports from Turkey - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on November of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Russian exports to Turkey in 2019 was 21.15 billion dollars

Russia Exports to Turkey - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 1996-2021 Historical

Russia Exports to Turkey was US$26.43 Billion during 2021, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. Russia Exports to Turkey - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on November of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Turkey received 7 million Russian tourists in 2019. They spent approximately 607 dollars per capita . That means they left 4.25 billion dollars as revenue.
So for Russia , Turkey’s ;
outgoing : 21.5 billion dollars
income : 4.25 + 4.98 = 9.23 billion dollars


ps tourism income is not exports!

According to Turkish Foreign ministry itself the export and import numbers are the ones I have shown.

From Rep. of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs

www.mfa.gov.tr

But let’s say that you are right... Tell me how many more drunk Russians Turkey should host to close the trade gap and to equalize the exports to America?

ps Russia (with a smaller economy than Texas) which is right next door can’t even be compared in importance as a market to America which is on the other side of the world.

 

[Yasar_TR]

According to Turkish Foreign ministry itself the export and import numbers are the ones I have shown.

From Rep. of Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs

www.mfa.gov.tr

But let’s say that you are right... Tell me how many more drunk Russians Turkey should host to close the trade gap and to equalize the exports to America?

ps Russia (with a smaller economy than Texas) which is right next door can’t even be compared in importance as a market to America which is on the other side of the world.

I can see where you are coming from. But when we shot down the Russian plane in November 2015 and the income from Russian tourists stopped, hoteliers and people who lost their livelihood along the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts put a lot of pressure on the Turkish government. So RTE sent a begging letter to Putin for forgiveness. Then the 15.07 coup occurred. It is suggested that Putin warned RTE at least a week before the coup so that it would not succeed. This was followed by the purchase of S400 system to consolidate the newly found friendship between the two leaders.
Was it all worth it? Of course not! But remember that USA was most likely behind the coup. They were trying to hand Turkey on a plate over to the Feto/PKK-PYD partnership. In fact they are still on a mission to set up a PKK/PYD state next to our borders.
Unfortunately all our defence systems and our economy is geared up in line with the west and US. So we can’t really afford to break ties with them that easily.
So to answer your question at the time it was the right move to make amends with Russians. S400 is just an excuse to keep us out of f35 program.
U.S. goods and services trade with Turkey totaled an estimated $26.8 billion in 2019. Exports were $14.2 billion; imports were $12.6 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade surplus with Turkey was $1.6 billion in 2019.

US vs Russian trade ; 14.2 billion dollars against 9.2 billion dollars. As long as we do not have to choose between them the best policy would be to keep both as they are.

Republic of Türkiye

Turkey is currently our 34th largest goods trading partner with $18.7 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2013. Goods exports totaled $12.1 billion; Goods imports totaled $6.7 billion. The U.S. goods trade surplus with Turkey was $5.4 billion in 2013. Exports Turkey was the United...

ustr.gov

 

[Bosanski Vojnik]

@delioroman

It was a necessary evil and I will explain why:

Turkey's purchase of S-400 came with tech transfer. Turkish Ministry of Defence & Armed Forces brought themselves to the realization years ago that in an event of a peer to peer conflict in the future a huge weakness for Turkey would be it's lack of air defence system. A good Air Defense system that can take down enemy fighterjets & missiles can prove to be a major deterrence to a potential adversary making them either limit offensive air operations or not launching them at all.

Upgraded MIM-23 Hawks and Rapiers are simply not up to task to provide deterrence to modern day air aggression. When it comes to the theatres of Cyprus, Libya, Mid-East, Caucasus & Greece in order to protect Turkish assets on the ground there needs to be an IADS which provide a full spectrum level of cover from cruise missiles to drones to high altitude and stand-off ranges.

Air Defence Systems are easy to transport and do not require constant refuelling like fighter jets would. Turkey is in no position to have it's fighter jets patrol the skies over three different continents 24/7 so they need something else to provide air cover. The Purchase of S-400 tech will provide great base to build on and improve existing air defence projects like Siper and build new state of the art one's in the future. (I dontt believe Turkey has a ability to further improve current ADS tech without acquiring existing tech from abroad)

Also related to this recently Turkey purchased upgraded S-125 systems from Ukraine with Max range of about 45km. These batteries will probably be sent to the Libyan Government however the real interesting part of this detail is that it came with tech transfer. Allowing Turkey to have improved tech understanding on building new mid-range air defence projects. Russian Air Defence systems may not deserve the hype that they get but they are really the best known and in terms of usage reliability ADS in the world. If you want to build up a domestic Air Defence umbrella It's hard to think of getting technology from anybody else but them.

Turkey was looking to be a customer of Patriot ADS & F-35 but these "deals" came with heavy caveats which meant that Turkey would have received downgraded version of Patriot (no tech transfer included) and F-35 with kill switch. In case of a potential crisis over Cyprus in East Med & Aegean it could mean that Greece would have heavy advantage over Turkey in the air.

S-400 deal is thinking for the future while F-35 and Patriot is for the next few years. I firmly believe that investing in domestic air defense systems like HISAR to cover low to mid ranges and Siper for long range supplemented by exisiting S-400 systems and possible future systems based on Russian ADS technology would be more worthwhile for Turkish Republic interests than purchasing downgraded F-35 and Patriots which could easily be sabotaged as US/Western interests and Turkeys collide in areas that Turkey considers critical to its national security & energy security/independence.

Whilst economy will most likely talk a downturn if Turkey chooses to take a more independent stance it is as I said before a "necassary evil" because whilst Economy is important I believe that Energy Independence and Military power is more important for nation that has intercontinental aspirations. There is a reason why Russia is still a major player in world affairs despite being a poor economic player. The saying "power is power" comes to light.

 

[Costin84]

@delioroman

It was a necessary evil and I will explain why:

Turkey's purchase of S-400 came with tech transfer. Turkish Ministry of Defence & Armed Forces brought themselves to the realization years ago that in an event of a peer to peer conflict in the future a huge weakness for Turkey would be it's lack of air defence system. A good Air Defense system that can take down enemy fighterjets & missiles can prove to be a major deterrence to a potential adversary making them either limit offensive air operations or not launching them at all.

Upgraded MIM-23 Hawks and Rapiers are simply not up to task to provide deterrence to modern day air aggression. When it comes to the theatres of Cyprus, Libya, Mid-East, Caucasus & Greece in order to protect Turkish assets on the ground there needs to be an IADS which provide a full spectrum level of cover from cruise missiles to drones to high altitude and stand-off ranges.

Air Defence Systems are easy to transport and do not require constant refuelling like fighter jets would. Turkey is in no position to have it's fighter jets patrol the skies over three different continents 24/7 so they need something else to provide air cover. The Purchase of S-400 tech will provide great base to build on and improve existing air defence projects like Siper and build new state of the art one's in the future. (I dontt believe Turkey has a ability to further improve current ADS tech without acquiring existing tech from abroad)

Also related to this recently Turkey purchased upgraded S-125 systems from Ukraine with Max range of about 45km. These batteries will probably be sent to the Libyan Government however the real interesting part of this detail is that it came with tech transfer. Allowing Turkey to have improved tech understanding on building new mid-range air defence projects. Russian Air Defence systems may not deserve the hype that they get but they are really the best known and in terms of usage reliability ADS in the world. If you want to build up a domestic Air Defence umbrella It's hard to think of getting technology from anybody else but them.

Turkey was looking to be a customer of Patriot ADS & F-35 but these "deals" came with heavy caveats which meant that Turkey would have received downgraded version of Patriot (no tech transfer included) and F-35 with kill switch. In case of a potential crisis over Cyprus in East Med & Aegean it could mean that Greece would have heavy advantage over Turkey in the air.

S-400 deal is thinking for the future while F-35 and Patriot is for the next few years. I firmly believe that investing in domestic air defense systems like HISAR to cover low to mid ranges and Siper for long range supplemented by exisiting S-400 systems and possible future systems based on Russian ADS technology would be more worthwhile for Turkish Republic interests than purchasing downgraded F-35 and Patriots which could easily be sabotaged as US/Western interests and Turkeys collide in areas that Turkey considers critical to its national security & energy security/independence.

Whilst economy will most likely talk a downturn if Turkey chooses to take a more independent stance it is as I said before a "necassary evil" because whilst Economy is important I believe that Energy Independence and Military power is more important for nation that has intercontinental aspirations. There is a reason why Russia is still a major player in world affairs despite being a poor economic player. The saying "power is power" comes to light.

There was no tech transfer for the S400.

 

[GoatsMilk]

The S400 came with no tech transfer.

It was the Chinese who were willing to give us the cheapest offer with tech transfer. However the americans threatened Turkey that the Chinese company was blacklisted and if any Turkish company involves herself they too would be blacklisted internationally.

Erdogan bowed his head down knowing he couldnt risk such a thing happening to the Turkish defence industry.

S400 was brought as a foolish panic buy hoping to gain influence with Russia while at the same time pressuring the USA to stop arming the PKK. It failed on both accounts. It even encouraged the Russians to so brazenly kill Turkish troops in Syria.

Stop treating political parties like religion, where they can do no wrong or everything is from Allah and unquestionable. S400 was a disaster. The bigger disaster is now to try and appease the USA, time to move on from the USA.

 

[Kartal1]

Dear users here is a relevant thread over a very serious issue concerning the future acquisition plans of the Turkish Armed Forces. You are free to discuss the issue and debate over which one is better for Turkey by showing your arguments. Please refrain from personal attacks and offenses to the forum rules. Thank you!

 

[Turko]

Thread 'Russian Surface to Air Missiles' https://defencehub.live/threads/russian-surface-to-air-missiles.5035/

 

[Ryder]

Moral of the Story.

Always develop your own stuff.

 

[Huelague]

In 2020 Turkey and the US had an anual trade volume of 21$ billion with Turkey exporting 11$ billion worth of products to America and America exporting 10$ worth of products to Turkey. Turkey has a 1$ billion positive trade balance with the US for 2020.

Couldn’t find stats for 2020 but for 2019 the total trade between Russia and Turkey was worth 26,3$ billion. Of that 3,8$ billion is Turkish exports to Russia and 22,5$ billion is Russian exports to Turkey. That means that Turkey has a negative trade balance of close to 19$ billion with Russia every year... on top of the fact that Turkey exports 3 times less to it compared to America.

So which country is a better market for Turkish exporters anyway? How much tomatoes and oranges Turkey needs to export and how many more drunk Russian tourists the hoteliers need to feed like pigs in their all inclusive resorts for 400€ a week to close that 19$ billion gap in trade?

Please ad tourism revenue from RU and dont forget heavy FDI. Not to mention stady reducing of Russian Imports/Gas.

 

[Nilgiri]

ps tourism income is not exports!

It is not goods/merchandise export thats true.

But it is counted under service exports.

In 2019 for Turkey (World bank) to rest of world:

Goods Exports = 182 billion USD
Service Exports = 65 billion USD
Total Exports = 249 billion USD

(I think Re-exports ~ 2 billion USD ....makes the slight difference between two aggregates)

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye | Data

Goods exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

Service exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye | Data

Service exports (BoP, current US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

Exports of goods and services (current US$) - Turkiye | Data

Exports of goods and services (current US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

Very much like India, growth in these has not been good since about 2012...relative to the period before it (2000- 2012).

 

[Test7]

@orko_8 'll attend the program on S400 air defence system and its effects today. I recommend it for Turkish users.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1360238863428575233

 

[TR_123456]

At the time this was the best decision,whatever the costs.
We need to just focus on the TFX,all other option will never be in our favor.

 

[mulj]

Artifical dilema by my opinion, siper will come soon and hurriet to, second one will be adequate bandage untill tfx come in, you are good. Domestic aesa radar and various aa missiles also give you some comfortability.