Security Developments in the Sahel

Kartal1

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CEP – KAS: Sahel Monitoring September 2023​

1698086774852.png


This tenth monthly report monitoring activities of al-Qaeda and Islamic State branches throughout the Sahel will focus on the propaganda output of these groups in September 2023.

An initial observation is that the number of claimed attacks remains at the same level when compared to August. Fifty-seven separate incidents have been registered. But perhaps the most remarkable fact is that ISGS was last mentioned in an-Naba’ 405 and did not claim a single attack even though it is very clear that they continue to be highly active in the Jihadist insurgency in Mali and Niger. This results in the somewhat strange observation that Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’ (JNIM) is now more active than both branches of the ISIS throughout the region. Similar to previous months, most attacks reported by the Islamic State in Western Africa Province (ISWAP) are of relatively low impact, with a lower number of casualties per attack. The deadliest attack was reported on September 8 in an-Naba’ issue 407, with a death toll of 15 killed and wounded. Although it is clear that the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel (ISGS) is by far more lethal and impactful in its attacks, their propaganda outlets did not report any terrorist operations at all this month and therefore there is no output that can be analyzed for this report. The strategic silence of ISGS is deafening. It remains to be seen whether or not the group is preparing a larger scale operation or campaign, which would explain its current silence.

Attacks in the Sahel: General Trend​

Given the fact that not a single claim was published by ISGS, the steady trend of a rising number of attacks throughout the months has come to a halt. Only 57 incidents were reported by az-Zallaqa Media and an-Naba’. As mentioned, most incidents were claimed by JNIM, totalling 35. The overall majority of these attacks was claimed in Mali, with a total of 20 attacks. Burkina Faso was struck by at least 14 different attacks by JNIM, one resulting in the claimed killing of over 50 Burkinabe soldiers on September 4. For the first time since systematic monitoring started at the end of 2022, Benin was hit by JNIM.

Although ISGS did not claim a single attack in its propaganda outlets, there are strong indications from other sources that the group was involved in several highly impactful attacks throughout Mali and Niger in September.

Mali is rapidly descending into further general chaos. On September 4, JNIM even communicated via az-Zallaqa Media that the group is besieging the entire city of Timbuktu, the largest city in the north of Mali.

1698086893307.png


On September 7, 64 civilians were killed by JNIM on a ferry in the area of Mopti. Interestingly, JNIM’s propaganda outlets subsequently denied the group’s involvement.

1698086915070.png


Another worrying event that became clear in late August already is the alleged ceasefire between ISGS and JNIM. In the past few months, ISGS had repeatedely attacked JNIM fighters in an apparent conflict over territory and influence. However, currently, it seems that both groups have reached some kind of agreement and seem to focus on their common enemies: the Malian Army and the Wagner Group. Therefore, a mutual weakening of these two terrorist groups can currently not be expected.

1698086942459.png


This agreement seems to be a strategic ceasefire, as both JNIM and ISGS are dividing Mali into separate areas of control.

1698086985656.png

1698087046387.png


The crash referred to by Pawel in his last tweet above refers to a significant accident in which an overloaded Iliouchine76 TZ98 airplane overestimated the runway and fatally crashed and exploded, killing at least 16 Wagner mercenaries and three Malian soldiers, including an air force Colonel.

1698087130143.png


Given the developments and incidents outlined above, it is clear that overall the trend of an ever increasing intencity of terrorist operations in the region is continuing, despite the fact that the propaganda outlets of the terrorist groups are not claiming more attacks this month when compared to August. It will be important to see whether or not ISGS continues its strategic silence beyond September. Undeniably, the group continues to play a central role in the deteriorating security situation in Mali and Niger.

Here is the full analysis: https://www.counterextremism.com/blog/cep-kas-sahel-monitoring-september-2023
 

Huelague

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Nice trick by German government.

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is affiliated with German Party. France, Germany and USA try to control this aerial for strategically and economical interest. They claimed, the reason why are they their, is fighing against terroris. They were kicked out by Africans, heped from Russia, Turkey and maybe China. Now, they take revenge by blaming us and trying to come back.

We will see increasing of terrorism activities. Sponsored by the axis of evils.
 

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Nice trick by German government.

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung is affiliated with German Party. France, Germany and USA try to control this aerial for strategically and economical interest. They claimed, the reason why are they their, is fighing against terroris. They were kicked out by Africans, heped from Russia, Turkey and maybe China. Now, they take revenge by blaming us and trying to come back.

We will see increasing of terrorism activities. Sponsored by the axis of evils.

Terrorism is just a good old excuse to get into countries to defend your interests.

Africa is now growing ever more important in global geopolitics.

Africa is growing so its attention as Western countries tries to maintain their grip against the new players like Russia, China and Turkiye.
 

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Terrorism is just a good old excuse to get into countries to defend your interests.

Africa is now growing ever more important in global geopolitics.

Africa is growing so its attention as Western countries tries to maintain their grip against the new players like Russia, China and Turkiye.

What about Morocco?
 

Knowledgeseeker

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North Africa is growing important of course.

Rising Stars are Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia.

Currently everything is going against Algeria. Either it is the Azawad in Mali, or the regime change in Niger. Haftar in Libya do not help either. On the other hand i advise you to look up the names of the new rulers in these african states, and where they recieved their millitary training from😉

@Kartal1 @TR_123456
 

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CEP – KAS: Sahel Monitoring September 2023​

View attachment 62203

This tenth monthly report monitoring activities of al-Qaeda and Islamic State branches throughout the Sahel will focus on the propaganda output of these groups in September 2023.

An initial observation is that the number of claimed attacks remains at the same level when compared to August. Fifty-seven separate incidents have been registered. But perhaps the most remarkable fact is that ISGS was last mentioned in an-Naba’ 405 and did not claim a single attack even though it is very clear that they continue to be highly active in the Jihadist insurgency in Mali and Niger. This results in the somewhat strange observation that Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin’ (JNIM) is now more active than both branches of the ISIS throughout the region. Similar to previous months, most attacks reported by the Islamic State in Western Africa Province (ISWAP) are of relatively low impact, with a lower number of casualties per attack. The deadliest attack was reported on September 8 in an-Naba’ issue 407, with a death toll of 15 killed and wounded. Although it is clear that the Islamic State in the Greater Sahel (ISGS) is by far more lethal and impactful in its attacks, their propaganda outlets did not report any terrorist operations at all this month and therefore there is no output that can be analyzed for this report. The strategic silence of ISGS is deafening. It remains to be seen whether or not the group is preparing a larger scale operation or campaign, which would explain its current silence.

Attacks in the Sahel: General Trend​

Given the fact that not a single claim was published by ISGS, the steady trend of a rising number of attacks throughout the months has come to a halt. Only 57 incidents were reported by az-Zallaqa Media and an-Naba’. As mentioned, most incidents were claimed by JNIM, totalling 35. The overall majority of these attacks was claimed in Mali, with a total of 20 attacks. Burkina Faso was struck by at least 14 different attacks by JNIM, one resulting in the claimed killing of over 50 Burkinabe soldiers on September 4. For the first time since systematic monitoring started at the end of 2022, Benin was hit by JNIM.

Although ISGS did not claim a single attack in its propaganda outlets, there are strong indications from other sources that the group was involved in several highly impactful attacks throughout Mali and Niger in September.

Mali is rapidly descending into further general chaos. On September 4, JNIM even communicated via az-Zallaqa Media that the group is besieging the entire city of Timbuktu, the largest city in the north of Mali.

View attachment 62205

On September 7, 64 civilians were killed by JNIM on a ferry in the area of Mopti. Interestingly, JNIM’s propaganda outlets subsequently denied the group’s involvement.

View attachment 62206

Another worrying event that became clear in late August already is the alleged ceasefire between ISGS and JNIM. In the past few months, ISGS had repeatedely attacked JNIM fighters in an apparent conflict over territory and influence. However, currently, it seems that both groups have reached some kind of agreement and seem to focus on their common enemies: the Malian Army and the Wagner Group. Therefore, a mutual weakening of these two terrorist groups can currently not be expected.

View attachment 62207

This agreement seems to be a strategic ceasefire, as both JNIM and ISGS are dividing Mali into separate areas of control.

View attachment 62208
View attachment 62209

The crash referred to by Pawel in his last tweet above refers to a significant accident in which an overloaded Iliouchine76 TZ98 airplane overestimated the runway and fatally crashed and exploded, killing at least 16 Wagner mercenaries and three Malian soldiers, including an air force Colonel.

View attachment 62210

Given the developments and incidents outlined above, it is clear that overall the trend of an ever increasing intencity of terrorist operations in the region is continuing, despite the fact that the propaganda outlets of the terrorist groups are not claiming more attacks this month when compared to August. It will be important to see whether or not ISGS continues its strategic silence beyond September. Undeniably, the group continues to play a central role in the deteriorating security situation in Mali and Niger.

Here is the full analysis: https://www.counterextremism.com/blog/cep-kas-sahel-monitoring-september-2023

The Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoogu visited Burkina Faso today and held talks with the Minister of Defense of Burkina Faso, General Kassoum Coulibaly.



 

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King Mohammed VI mentioned, the Sahel region on the occasion of the 48th anniversary of the Green March speech. He said the following:

"The problems and difficulties facing the sister countries of the Sahel region will not be solved through security and military dimensions alone. Rather, by adopting an approach based on cooperation and joint development."

"Therefore, we propose launching an initiative at the international level, aiming to enable Sahel countries to access the Atlantic Ocean. Morocco is ready to place its road, port, and railway infrastructure at the disposal of these sister countries."
 

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U.S. Seeks Drone Bases in Coastal West Africa to Stem Islamist Advance​

Plan to station reconnaissance aircraft in Ghana, Ivory Coast and Benin signals retrenchment from coup-hit Sahel states​


 

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In a press release broadcast on Malian TV:

“The Transitional Government notes with deep concern the increasing unfriendly acts, hostilities, and interference in the internal affairs of Mali on the part of the authorities of the People's Democratic Republic of Algeria, all of which undermine the national security and sovereignty of Mali. After analyzing these cases, what emerges is an erroneous perception of the Algerian authorities who consider as their backyard or a doormat state, against a backdrop of contempt and condescension.

Mali calls on the Algerian authorities to also recall their responsibility for the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel region


 

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“Azawad was politically dependent on the Cherifian Empire ( Morocco) until 1893, when France undertook the conquest of the region. »

Ben Billa, coordinator of the Azawad national movement.






"I cannot speak of the Sahara conflict without recalling the historical role of Morocco in the diffusion and promotion of Islam in West Africa for centuries [...] we must not forget that several current states in this region there were part of Morocco."

- Former Turkish ambassador to Morocco.
 
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Kartal1

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In a press release broadcast on Malian TV:

“The Transitional Government notes with deep concern the increasing unfriendly acts, hostilities, and interference in the internal affairs of Mali on the part of the authorities of the People's Democratic Republic of Algeria, all of which undermine the national security and sovereignty of Mali. After analyzing these cases, what emerges is an erroneous perception of the Algerian authorities who consider as their backyard or a doormat state, against a backdrop of contempt and condescension.

Mali calls on the Algerian authorities to also recall their responsibility for the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel region


What is the situation here? What is the role of Algeria in Mali?
 

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What is the situation here? What is the role of Algeria in Mali?

In late december, Mali accused Algeria of meeting rebel leaders, leading to a diplomatic dispute. Mali has now withdrawn from the Algiers agreement in 2015, and hopefully, Morocco will play the role of being the mediator between Azawad, and Mali. It's interesting that Mali possesses Turkish weapons while being accompanied by Wagner. At the same time Morocco is growing its ties with Mali, and the rest of the central sahel countries. Azawad also seeks to get more help on the ground against Mali, and Wagner. Algeria on the other hand is getting cornered, but have the Russians turned their back on them? Their main ally, and main weapon supplier🤔
 

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The PM of Niger, the defense minister followed up by a delegation is on a two-day visit to Morocco since yesterday. This will be followed up by visits from Burkina Faso, and Mali soon.


Today we hear the great announcement that Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are abolishing the franc currency! Another severe blow to French influence, and economy.


General Chiani: Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali will not become France's "cash cow."
 
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