Analysis Sinking of the Moskva, Black Sea Flagship of the Russian Navy

[UkroTurk]

The sea condition seem calm opposite to Russian claims. There was neither storm nor big waves which could hinder towing to Sevastopol.

 

[Lordimperator]

Correct me if i am wrong, but the captain and bridge personnel were not seen alive, if they were injured or killed by fire or explosion or gone missing, it is also possible for one missile to impact machinery room while another one at the CIWS or missile canister position.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1515628826491076612

Here is some OSINT analysis from HI Sutton regarding Moskwa Capt. But about the time of video recorded still in question.

 

[DAVEBLOGGINS]

There's a couple pictures now floating around (excuse the pun) of supposedly the Moskva after getting hit:

==================

Assuming they are legit photos, there are a few observations:

1) The life raft canisters are missing, indicating that she has been abandoned;

2) The hangar doors are open, which suggests that her helicopter was flown off and the air department left with it (or very shortly thereafter)

3) There are several roughly circular areas of discoloration which appear to correspond with the location of portholes on the main deck, probably from smoke escaping from those portholes. There is another area of discoloration at the end of the forecastle deck abeam the hangar, indicating that smoke escaped from the main deck there too

4) The main fire is obviously in the vicinity of the stacks and the bridge. There is what may be evidence of a missile hit near the waterline in this area. Note that there are no portholes that correspond with the discoloration on the hull here, suggesting internal fires and/or missile damage. This is about where one would expect a radar-homing anti-ship missile to impact - near the center of the target, where the superstructure creates the biggest radar picture.

5) The list is probably due at least in part to firefighting water collecting inside the ship. This is a common occurrence in shipboard fires and may have contributed to the ultimate loss of the ship, perhaps via the free surface effect. The missiles may have caused some flooding, particularly if they struck near the waterline, but firefighting efforts concentrated on the port side likely caused water to collect on that side.
There are more portholes on the second deck aft below the knuckle in the ship's side, some of which are barely visible and are awash due to the list. Water entering through these portholes could contribute to the list, she does not appear to have any appreciable trim by the stern.


Possible course of events from these observations:

A) The missile or missiles hit Moskva between the forward superstructure and the stacks, just abaft the forward missile batteries. These hits ignited a major fire in the vicinity of the uptakes that forced her main machinery to shut down, leaving her reliant on emergency diesel generators for power.

B) Firefighting efforts by her crew and other ships caused her to take on a list to port. With much of the upper portion of the ship filled with smoke, no propulsion, and fires threatening the missile magazines, she was abandoned.

C) The fires were eventually brought under control and the ship was taken in tow, but firefighting water accumulating on the port side pulled the holes made by the missiles and the lower row of portholes below the waterline, leading to additional flooding high in the ship, exacerbating the list and reducing her margin of stability.

D) Eventually she sank either due to progressive flooding or perhaps free surface effect causing a sudden loss of stability and capsizing.


Comments, corrections, analysis and counter-analysis welcome (assuming these pictures are legitimate).

@Anmdt @MisterLike et al.

Thank Nilgiri for these recent pics (if they are legit). It could be though that these are pics used to "confuse the enemy" as Putin is well known to go very deep into propaganda. Do we know if the whole crew go off? It would be very interesting to know her 'final resting place" (Lat/Long) though for future reference. Cheers!

 

[mifletz]

For comparison, 20 died on HMS Sheffield and 12 on the Atlantic Conveyor when hit by Exocets in 1982

HMS Sheffield lost after missile hit

British destroyer HMS Sheffield is hit by an Exocet missile with the loss of 20 crew members.

www.bbc.com

47 died on the INS Eilat when hit by three Styx in 1967

and 4 on the Hanit when hit by a C802 in 2006

 

[Merzifonlu]

I have two question:

a) Why were the Neptune anti-ship missiles not used against landing ships in front of Odessa?

b) There are other Russian ships in the Black Sea besides Moskva. Why weren't those Neptunes thrown at them until now?! Does Ukraine only have enough missiles to hit Moskva? LOL

 

[Lordimperator]

and 4 on the Hanit when hit by a C802 in 2006

Pardon if it will be a little out off topic,. Why did Hanit get hit by C802 eventhou she has Phalanx?

 

[You]

''accidental'' fire ==probable ...missile hit, much more probable

 

[Ecderha]

The sea condition seem calm opposite to Russian claims. There was neither storm nor big waves which could hinder towing to Sevastopol.

Russian claims..............if you continue to believe russian sources of information.................you have to prepare you self to suffer..............
russians create only propaganda..........Main target group are russian itself..................

 

[Zapper]

A good reason why Indian Navy doesn't overload our ships with ammo ... contrary to the Russians or Chinese

Apparently, this seems to be from a Russian frigate which reflects their poor ammo management

 

[Anmdt]

I have two question:

a) Why were the Neptune anti-ship missiles not used against landing ships in front of Odessa?

b) There are other Russian ships in the Black Sea besides Moskva. Why weren't those Neptunes thrown at them until now?! Does Ukraine only have enough missiles to hit Moskva? LOL

They have limited number of the missiles, there is no luxury of spending those recklessly. They have expected for a 'go' from the masterminds.

Also i think there are missiles in unfinished state, those are completed or being completed by time and will be deployed to the field. More Russian warships will be targeted from now on as they enter within the limits.

 

[Ecderha]

I have two question:

a) Why were the Neptune anti-ship missiles not used against landing ships in front of Odessa?

b) There are other Russian ships in the Black Sea besides Moskva. Why weren't those Neptunes thrown at them until now?! Does Ukraine only have enough missiles to hit Moskva? LOL

As already said ship moscow was doing following
-moscow was main ship to protect other russian ships
- it was main and almost only one ship launching missiles to ground targets
- It was Primary taget......Mean Ukraine and West recording all path Patters this ship DID and try to prepare possible moment in Time where it will be and attack it
-Ukraine only have few neptune missilse
-Ukraine and WEST do NOT want to hit other ships, ........ because if they were hit by neptune .........then russia will start to be more and more protective for Flag ship moscow



At end result is that russia LOST the SHIP which was MAIN PROTECTOR russian navy....................NOW there NO any chance for other ships to go Offensive or Supply as they did before.................russian navy in black sea offense is over.......

 

[Zapper]

As already said ship moscow was doing following
-moscow was main ship to protect other russian ships
- it was main and almost only one ship launching missiles to ground targets
- It was Primary taget......Mean Ukraine and West recording all path Patters this ship DID and try to prepare possible moment in Time where it will be and attack it
-Ukraine only have few neptune missilse
-Ukraine and WEST do NOT want to hit other ships, ........ because if they were hit by neptune .........then russia will start to be more and more protective for Flag ship moscow



At end result is that russia LOST the SHIP which was MAIN PROTECTOR russian navy....................NOW there and any chance for other ships to go Offensive or Supply as before.................russian navy in black sea offense is over.......

Another possibility is the missile isn't Neptune at all but an American or Western European AShM made to look like a Neptune

 

[Ecderha]

Another possibility is the missile isn't Neptune at all but an American or Western European AShM made to look like a Neptune

It is not important is it neptune or other missile.........................MAIN GOAL was to neutralize russian navy in black sea..............moscow was THE TARGET...........
Strategic HIT...........Which lead to LOSS ALL.................at least so many navy options for russian navy is CLOSED it is over

Other ships do not have capacity for offense or protection for navy...........they will be easy target

 

[DAVEBLOGGINS]

I have two question:

a) Why were the Neptune anti-ship missiles not used against landing ships in front of Odessa?

b) There are other Russian ships in the Black Sea besides Moskva. Why weren't those Neptunes thrown at them until now?! Does Ukraine only have enough missiles to hit Moskva? LOL

You could be right Merzifonlu. These Neptunes could also be used in a "surface-to-surface land attack mode I would think, so maybe Ukraine has already expended their entire stockpile. Perhaps these "home made" Naval Strike Missiles have been exhausted and they cannot be made available during the war right now.

 

[Gary]

Still no complete picture of what's going on. I hope the Turkish rescue ship took pictures as well.

Some proven fake :

1. The weather is stormy
2. It's a magazine explosion

 

[Ecderha]

Some proven fake :
It was proven russian news.................which also proven for FAKE news .....allmost 95%.................this bullshits are mean to russian..........
I do not understand why NOT russians Try to read or watch this lies and start to Think or Analyzis this bullshit lies as source of information!?!
it always lead to lie and fake news.................I guess most of people like to be lied and used as puppet

 

[Nilgiri]

https://www.facebook.com/battle.machines2012/posts/2316443508504223

More than 3 hits? @Nilgiri

View attachment 42731
View attachment 42732

If you look at anmdt line drawing, I think the 3rd one corresponds to a service bay (or maybe its the torpedo launch bay) for the hangar area.....so smoke belched from its seams (or it might have been opened to vent) and discoloured the outside etc.

The 1st and 2nd ones, they are likelier candidates but like anmdt says they could be just portholes given they seem to be too small (though its hard to gauge in the fuzziness of picture) to be missile penetration zones. Though the line drawing suggests there is only one porthole in this area.... so I have to catch up and see if there is better analysis since I have returned.

 

[Anmdt]

Still no complete picture of what's going on. I hope the Turkish rescue ship took pictures as well.

Some proven fake :

1. The weather is stormy
2. It's a magazine explosion

I think the leaked images are from Russian rescue tugboats and other service vessels (firefighter, emergency response etc).

Turkish commercial vessel (possibly other commercial vessels) had responded when it was still dark, right after the incident at the night time, long before than those Russian service vessels have arrived by first light of the day. Possibly then they have handed out the survivors and continued their voyage. Unsure if they did receive or going to receive a treat from Russians for saving their crews.

And i am unsure if IMO rules make it compulsory for commercial vessel to respond at SOS calls of a military vessel. Going to look it through.

 

[mifletz]

Pardon if it will be a little out off topic,. Why did Hanit get hit by C802 eventhou she has Phalanx?

The Israeli officer had turned off the Phalanx and Barak missile defences, analysed here

https://www.admiraltytrilogy.com/cic/HarpoonAnalysis/Hanit_Analysis.pdf

What happened to the Moskva's anti-missile guns?

 

[Nilgiri]

Thank Nilgiri for these recent pics (if they are legit). It could be though that these are pics used to "confuse the enemy" as Putin is well known to go very deep into propaganda. Do we know if the whole crew go off? It would be very interesting to know her 'final resting place" (Lat/Long) though for future reference. Cheers!

At this point the pictures seem quite credible, given the video that is also out.

Stay tuned to the thread for updates on the rest.