Live Conflict Syria After the Civil War

[Sanchez]

US backed New Syrian Army from At-Tanf?

Yes. expecting those guys to officially join SDF in the near future, or simply scatter when they come across HTS.

 

[dBSPL]

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: We must return to the borders of the Idlib de-escalation agreement signed in 2019.

 

[RMZN]

how do you know that ?? they need money to rebuild Syria, west can provide that if they accept autonomy

at the end of the day HTS are still Sunni Jihadists. They reject minority alawite rule over an majority sunni arab population, why would they tolerate minority kurdish rule over sunni arab lands? Or the natural resources underneath said soil?

 

[Khagan1923]

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: We must return to the borders of the Idlib de-escalation agreement signed in 2019.

Has Lavrov being sleeping the last week? The Regime has collapsed. We might see the rebels take Damascus in the next days, what is he on about. Why would Türkiye if it could even do such a thing after Russia and Iran haven't kept their word over and over again.

Also good to see the local arab tribes deny entry to the sdf.

 

[Khagan1923]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865353999592906931

Let us hope they are not ignored.

 

[schuimpjes]

Yes.

With Al-Bukamal, Deir Az-Zour city controlled by SDF and Palmyra controlled by New Syrian Army, Iran and Iraqi Muqawama should say goodbye to an important supply route.

 

[dBSPL]

MANPADS teams. Hama.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865296551511572957

 

[dBSPL]

In the operations that started on 28 December, the regime and its supporters have lost the most weapons and ammunition to the opposition today, since 2-3 December. Different rebel factions in different regions are capturing almost abandoned ammunition depots. I am not sure whether this is good or not, I think it is rather not good.

***

The HQ of 121st Brigade, which was supposed to defend Damascus in the scenario of an Israeli ground attack, was captured by a handful of rebel slippered men. The opposition is 10 km from Damascus city centre.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865362816275730558

 

[schuimpjes]

MANPADS teams. Hama.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865296551511572957

Looks like the man from Central Asia(?). The language sounds Turkish, but using word “samalyot” for aircraft.

 

[dBSPL]

Looks like the man from Central Asia(?). The language sounds Turkish, but using word “samalyot” for aircraft.

The presenter may have been Uzbek, I could not understand the dialect of the other Turkish speaker.

 

[dBSPL]

Meanwhile, according to some video reports, the armed rebels around Daraa has pledged its allegiance to the operation room in Northern Syria. This may be the result of the direct US proxies' co-operate with the regime as the regime collapses. Not the only reason, but one of the reasons. The clear winners are the operations room in the north and the joint forces.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865301764913656166

Things are already complicated on the Deir ez-Zor side too, and if the SDF tries to use force in a bloody way like last time, all ropes will break. Although there are many mapper who paint the maps yellow, the situation seems to be different in the field.

***

Update:
-Southern rebels advanced to the outskirts of Damascus
-Northern rebels entered Homs city
-Syrian rebels began advancing and taking towns in Manbij region
-Arab tribes began taking control of towns in Raqqa from the YPG
-Arab tribes expand their control in Deir Ezzour
(7/12/24 local time 3 PM)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865373913988919584

 

[schuimpjes]

The presenter may have been Uzbek, I could not understand the dialect of the other Turkish speaker.

But I don’t agree that they captured Stinger missile in Hama. It’s only the presenter said Stinger refer to that Russian MANPADS.

 

[Dennixtoue]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865370994090688610

 

[Tonil2]

Assad army is not a big surprise for me. I've been saying for many years that they are useless without pro-Iranian militias.

Lebanese Hezbollah was very weakened in past year, thats also understandable.

The biggest mystery me it is Iraqi Shia militias. In 2014-2017 many many thousands of them died for Assad bringing him victory in Daraa, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, Deir Ez Zor....

And now not only they do absolutely nothing to save Assad in West Syria, but they also just packing and leaving East Syria without any fight handing everything to SDF. Whats the hell is going on?

The only explanation which comes to my mind is US pressure. But who in US, how, why? What they want to achieve in the end? We live in interesting times.

They got smoked in Hama they were there and also now in homs

 

[schuimpjes]

Things are already complicated on the Deir ez-Zor side too, and if the SDF tries to use force in a bloody way like last time, all ropes will break. Although there are many mapper who paint the maps yellow, the situation seems to be different in the field.

Anti-SDF Arab forces in Deir at-Zour city and its vicinities are from SAA and friends, including Iranian backed Uqaydat tribal force. Don’t expect too much from them.

 

[Khagan1923]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1865379541843059154

cant forget the refrigerators.

People seem to forget that the majority of sdf leadership are pkk trained iraqi/turkish kurds. Very unlikely influential arab/turkmen tribes will be okay with them unless they are willing to get bribed and without american threats many will not bend the knee.

Even SAA aligned tribes will rather work with their fellow arabs than be lead by a bunch of marxist drug trafficking iraqi kurds who have ordered countless ethnic cleansing and torture against arabs and turkmen in the region.

If SNA/FSA pressures the sdf/ypg they will crumble with revolts happening behind the fronts by arab tribes who have enough or whom they can't afford to pay off anymore.

Without any intervention by americans or another state in favour of the ypg sdf will cease to exist.

 

[schuimpjes]

Syrian rebels began advancing and taking towns in Manbij region

Damn. US pulled out from Manbij back then because of Trump, the root cause of Jim Mattis disagreement with Trump and his resignation from SecDef position.

US security guarantee for SDF in Manbij replaced with unreliable Russian and Assad forces. US forces out from MSS/FOB in Ayn Dadat, Russian coming in like hyenas see carcasses.

 

[Saithan]

Those oilfields generate enough to bribe, but if they're taken out then they won't have enough to bribe. Let's see if US makes a show of it's power then it could stall the operation.

We'll see once SNA and HTS reaches Manbij.

 

[schuimpjes]

Those oilfields generate enough to bribe

Talking about “economic firepower”, SDF also controlled Lafarge (Holcim) cement plant near Kobani (Ayn Al-Arab or Ayn Al-Islam called by IS). Lafarge charged with terror financing now by French court because they paying tax to IS to keep running the business as usual when Islamic State still control the areas.

US also had presence back then within or near Lafarge cement plant called Kobani Landing Zone (KLZ) before Trump’s retreat like in Manbij.

Don’t forget about Conoco oil and gas field in Deir az-Zour east of Euphrates that Assad and Wagner tried to take during Battle of Khasham.

 

[Rooxbar]

There were reports that HTS have promised Russia they will not move onto Latakia and Tartus.