Taiwan To Plan $7 Billion Missile Boost

[TR_123456]

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen recently approved a $7 billion budget bill that aims at mass missiles production.


It comes amid the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—after the Taliban seized Kabul last week.


In an attempt to draw Taiwan closer, Beijing tried to portray the U.S. as an unreliable, weak power.

Taiwan To Plan $7 Billion Missile Boost

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen recently approved a $7 billion budget bill that aims at mass missiles production. It comes amid the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—after the Taliban seized Kabul last week. In an attempt to draw Taiwan closer, Beijing tried to portray the U.S. as an unreliable...

www.ntd.com

 

[RogerRanger]

What sort of Missiles? My view is Taiwan is part of China, so if the Chinese take it, I have no issue. Just like Hong Kong. And the US breaks agreements, abandon's allies all the time.

 

[Gary]

Long range anti ship missile like HF-2/3 and ground launched version of Wan Chien cruise missile should be made priority. If Taiwan could disabled just 1/4th of the invasion fleet as well as destroying key ports, airbases and staging area, Taiwan is safe.

The weather and many other factor like intelligence could give Taiwan the cue on when neighbor next door will launch an assault down to the weeks or even d-day.

 

[Nilgiri]

Long range anti ship missile like HF-2/3 and ground launched version of Wan Chien cruise missile should be made priority. If Taiwan could disabled just 1/4th of the invasion fleet as well as destroying key ports, airbases and staging area, Taiwan is safe.

The weather and many other factor like intelligence could give Taiwan the cue on when neighbor next door will launch an assault down to the weeks or even d-day.

They might hopefully have deep chat with some relevant Japanese regarding closest cards Japan keeps to its chest regarding "at short notice" WMD....and see what can be done for Taiwan's case to establish behind the scenes full deterrence against PRC.

Current Taiwanese administration has a good window for it this decade....as DPP is riding very strong popular support seeing what has gone on in HK (against all prior promises) and also the current flexing around the straits by PRC.

 

[Old Codger]

Long range anti ship missile like HF-2/3 and ground launched version of Wan Chien cruise missile should be made priority. If Taiwan could disabled just 1/4th of the invasion fleet as well as destroying key ports, airbases and staging area, Taiwan is safe.

The weather and many other factor like intelligence could give Taiwan the cue on when neighbor next door will launch an assault down to the weeks or even d-day.

I think most anti-ship missiles such as the Brave Wind.3. are expected to succeed with a 50% hit rate. They do not have to actually SINK many of the ships, but set them on fire or otherwise disable them so that they have to drop out of the invasion fleet position. Enough gaps in that fleet and the mission degrades and fails.

OC

 

[Azeri441]

Long range anti ship missile like HF-2/3 and ground launched version of Wan Chien cruise missile should be made priority. If Taiwan could disabled just 1/4th of the invasion fleet as well as destroying key ports, airbases and staging area, Taiwan is safe.

The weather and many other factor like intelligence could give Taiwan the cue on when neighbor next door will launch an assault down to the weeks or even d-day.

China would need thousands of different crafts and hundreds of thousands of troops at staging areas, an invasion force of that size would be noticeable months in advance. It took coalitions months to prepare for desert storm, launching an amphibious invasion on Taiwan would be the most difficult operation any military has ever faced. The major concern is the devastation China's missiles will cause on civilian population.

 

[Old Codger]

My guess is that the PRC can cram about 5000 troops in a troopship/'Attack Transport' for the 10+ hour journey across the strait.

The 150,000 troops needed to have a 2 to 1 ratio with the defenders gives us the need for 30 transports. If Taiwan manages to sink/disable/torch half of them and force them to lose their place in the fleet then the fleet loses cohesion and dependability.

US satellites will give ample warning in the weeks and months prior, there can be no chance of a surprise attack. It took Gen Eisenhowr best part of a year to plan and gather his men and supplies prior to 'Overlord'. By then they even had 'PLUTO' and the 'Mulberry'.

OC

PS, I doubt that the PRC will use indiscriminate missile attack on residential areas. The world is reacting to Russia doing that and the
'loss of face' would be more than it is worth doing. Taiwan has been digging for over 40 years, and the important stuff is all well down in the rock.

 

[Ryder]

China would need thousands of different crafts and hundreds of thousands of troops at staging areas, an invasion force of that size would be noticeable months in advance. It took coalitions months to prepare for desert storm, launching an amphibious invasion on Taiwan would be the most difficult operation any military has ever faced. The major concern is the devastation China's missiles will cause on civilian population.

Taiwan also has mountains and urban areas.

I cannot imagine how crazy it would be to see fighting where the skyscrapers are.

Im really think Taiwan vs China is going to be the most bloody and most destructive war of today im really thinking it could surpass the ukraine war maybe even drag nations into this.

 

[Old Codger]

Taiwan can cripple an invasion fleet in the vital first 10 hours of D-Day.

If the USA or anyone joins in then they are crazy. It is simply not required. The US can '"send in the Marines" but why would they? Yes a half dozen 'Virginia' subs would be handy, but reloads of all those Harpoons more so.

The lucky 50% of the PLA will cross the beach and have little or no hope of resupply.

The POW camps await!

OC

 

[Gary]

My opinion is that the PLA will start an air campaign in earnest, destroying the RoCAF then proceed to do a Karabakh style search and destroy from the air using drones and their many strike fighters. Once sufficient Taiwanese missile launchers has been decimated the PLA will assemble for the invasion phase.

 

[Old Codger]

Gary,

That "air campaign" is an Act of War that throws the whole thing out the window. First response will be to close the Taiwan Strait and declare all shipping as hostile.

I assume that the attack will be via missiles and 'Badgers' etc, BUT missiles and Badgers can't hope to eliminate the threat of anti-ship missiles. They are 100% MOBILE and the PRC cannot hope to find them when they could be anywhere, and somewhere else 10 minutes later.

Our peace loving Russian friends in Ukraine have found out the hard way that bullshit propaganda and overblown claims do not win wars. (remember the "Invincible Guard" in Iraq? All dead in 100 hours.

No bomber, paratroop transport, or Su-25 type can hope to do more than a sortie or two before the meet up with a Sky Bow. AND all those pilots are an only child!

The very KEY to Taiwan's survival is NOT in ships, tanks, or fighter aircraft, it is in MISSILES! - Hypersonic and long range. Far quicker cheaper and easier to get than a DDG. A Zillion tanks are useless if they cannot get to the beach, and get a refill of the fuel tank.


PS, The leadership of both nations are not stupid, and they know all of the above.

OC

 

[Gary]

A hypothetical Taiwan war will be as difficult for the attacker as well as the defender. For the attacker the challenge is the time and terrain. Time, because China has only realistically twice a year to mount a successful invasion and that particular time is well known. Taiwan will have ample early warning. Terrain because once the PLA landed they'll be met with built up area and hilly terrain with thick vegetation.
For the defender the challenge is to stay afloat during the invasion until sufficient help in the form of weather and external help.

This war will not be won "within hours" for both sides. There will NEVER be a China successful invading Taiwan in a day or Taiwan being able to destroy the invasion fleet within hours. Instead a protracted war spanning months or even years.

For the PLA, the softening up on Taiwan's missile launcher will be kicked months in advance before the decision to do landfall. PLA knows they have the superior aerial and naval components by quite a lot of margin. If the PLAAF could ground the RoCAF and suppress its air defense batteries to the point where PLAAF ISR planes and assets could do constant monitoring on every movement inside the island then Taiwan is in big trouble. Modern ISR has come a long way both in accuracy and precision as well as up to date updates. We should not underestimate China's investment in its ISR (spy satellite, AEW&C, HALE drones etc) or even its HUMINT in situ. Once China has air supremacy above Taiwan, its many precision munitions could pick those missile launchers one by one just like the Azerbaijani picked Armenian tanks one by one.

For Taiwan the challenge is to keep sufficient power until the weather no longer allow a Chinese troops landfall. They will need to challenge China's air force just enough that China will have difficulty in finding and tracking its many mobile missile launchers and minimize China's ability to destroy its launchers above China's tolerance limit.

In the end Taiwan has only finite amount of munitions. At some point it will need to be replenished and its not going to come from Taiwan. Without outside assistance, Taiwan is doomed.

 

[Old Codger]

Gary,

Have to disagree with that. By far the most critical hours for the invasion fleet are those at the speed of the slowest vessels. Maybe 15 knots or less over 150 kms, and some invasion ports wiill be 200 kms from the northern beaches.

IF, Taiwan can reduce the fleet by maybe 50% it will greatly impede the establishment and resupply of the first wave of 150,000 men.

I am placing little importance to the F16s, subs, and her nice new missile corvetts. They are all TARGETS, just as all those Russian ships planes and tanks are targets in the new age of missiles, drones, and lasers.

If the invasion troops DO manage to get ashore intact then the game is down to mountains, rivers, bridges and tall buildings. Far better to drown them by the 1000 and not have to hunt them down with rifles.

Also,. I cannot see the reasoning behind sending over 1000 missiles and then waiting for "months in advance".

Agree about the re-supply of weapons as Russia is finding out, and that is where the USA comes in.

Taiwan is probably producing 10 or 20 missiles a week, and the equation is getting better for her as time passes. Not sure just how many shifts they use but I suspect that it is only one shift per day.

And do not forget all this underground bunkers.


OC

 

[Old Codger]

What sort of Missiles? My view is Taiwan is part of China, so if the Chinese take it, I have no issue. Just like Hong Kong. And the US breaks agreements, abandon's allies all the time.

As the wise man said, "Land belongs to those that are strong enough to TAKE it, and strong enough to KEEP it"

It has been so since the cave dwellers.

Ask the japanese about the Kurile Islands.

OC