Looking at this from afar - with no allegiance to Turkiye, Hamas, Israel, Germany or the US - I rate the chances of Turkiye receiving F-16 or Typhoon as near zero, given what I hear Erdogan say in his speeches since Israel struck back after the October 7 Hamas attack. In my opinion it is now wishful thinking to imagine that either will be supplied.
Turkiye had better get on buying Russian, Chinese or Pakistani if it wants something before KAAN is available with a Turkish engine. The least objectionable choice to NATO would be Pakistani, I guess. How would JF-17 compare to F-4?
They don't sell Turkiye weapons because they like us, if anything they are at war with us. I know if Turkiye armed and trained the IRA on the British border the english would perceive it as an act of war. This is what the USA is doing with the PKK. Let alone many europeans giving sanctuary to these terrorists.
They use weapons to manipulate our actions, to control what we do.
The danger with the westerners completely cutting Turkiye off is that you will force Turkiye directly into the camp of Russia, Iran and China. Isreal will find herself facing a Turkiye that sees her as direct enemy like iran. What a nightmare that would be for Isreal if Turkiye and Iran are pushed to become allies, what a nightmare it would be for american european games in the middle east. They would be swiftly kicked out. No one in the middle east will be able to oppose both nations working together.
This will also force Turkiye to increase her resistance to the PKK games in Syria, no more f'king around, nothing to lose now, no weapons to blackmail us with etc.
As for the millions of refugees, no point helping europe if their effectlively trying to bury us.
Never think the americans or shit heads in europe are doing us favours, they do according to what is in their interests first. Turn Turkiye into a complete enemy and the cost will be high for europe too simply due to geography.
This is why the americans/europeans use a give and take approach, the carrot and stick approach. Don't attack PKK, we give you f16, attack PKK we wont sell you F16 etc etc.
Now it was in Turkiyes interest to take a balanced approach, we failed completely under AK party. But don't think if they push us to the other side that there wont be big costs to the imperial nations in the region, there will be.
Had Turkiye took Russias side in Ukraine, i suspect the war would have ended quickly, Turkish arms to Russia instead of Ukraine and no closure of the black sea. If tomrrow Turkiye ended up on Russia and Irans side, eastern europe is gone.
Could you imagine you may even end up seeing Chinese bases in Turkiye.
Now none of this is good for Turkiye, but the point is there is potentially massive costs to the west to keep shitting on Turkiye. So they are going to keep playing their pressure game, hinder us as much as possible but never cut us off so much that we turn the other way. They need a passive Turkiye for at least another 20 years to get their pkkistan in syria.
Because if tomorrow erdogan makes a deal with Assad, that game is over in Syria. Assad, Iran, Turkey and Russia will all make sure America leaves for good.
And on a side note the anglo-american world plays the good cop bad cop routine. If america is bad cop britain will play good cop, their agenda is completely aligned.