Admins/Mods before you think of deleting this, because use of AI. I asked chatgpt to use only sources and didn't ask it about its opinion, only facts with sources.
Tell me the delays of all 5th gen fighter programs before their serial production started and use only sources
Here’s a summary of the documented
pre‑serial‑production delays for the major fifth‑generation fighter programs, based solely on reliable published sources:
F‑22 Raptor (U.S.)
- Expected first flight: mid‑1996
- Actual first flight: 7 September 1997 → approximately 15 months delayed (WIRED, Wikipedia, GlobalSecurity)
- Manufacturing delays (wing, aft fuselage) and avionics integration issues delayed multiple test articles by up to 16.9 cumulative flight‑test months as of early 1999 (GlobalSecurity)
Total development-to‑production delay:
Although low‑rate production began around late 1998 or early 1999, key exit testing milestones were delayed by over a year, pushing official production decisions into 1999 instead of the original 1998 target. (
Air & Space Forces Magazine,
WorldNetDaily)
F‑35 Lightning II (U.S.)
- DoD’s 2009 Joint Estimate Team estimated the F‑35 was approximately 30 months behind the original schedule (Wikipedia)
- The program was formally re‑baselined in 2011, pushing the IOC from an initial 2010 target to July 2015 (Wikipedia)
Total delay before full-rate production: ~2.5–3 years late before entering
full-rate production (Milestone C) in March 2024 (
Government Accountability Office,
Defence Blog,
Simple Flying)
Sukhoi Su‑57 “Felon” (Russia)
- First flight occurred on 29 January 2010, but serial production originally planned for 2015 was repeatedly postponed to 2020, then 2027 or later (GovInfo)
- Contract signed in 2018 for first serial units with delivery delayed—first expected by end 2020—followed by slipped timelines; serial production pushed to 2027 (The Aviationist, blogbeforeflight.net, Army Recognition)
Estimated cumulative delay: ~5 to 7 years from the originally expected 2015 production start to now foreseen around
2027.
Chengdu J‑20 “Mighty Dragon” (China)
- Initial official service entry was forecast between 2017 and 2019, but actual low‑rate initial production (LRIP) only began in late‑2015, with IOC starting around 2017 (Wikipedia)
- Development challenges with the indigenous WS‑15 engine caused ongoing tech delays that persisted into 2020 and beyond, with final engine validation only completed in March 2022 (Wikipedia)
Estimated delay length: ~
1 to 2 years relative to mid‑2017 target IOC; full serial production timeline remains less transparent.
Sukhoi Su‑75 “Checkmate” (Russia)
- Revealed in 2021 with initial production expected in 2025 and deliveries in 2026–2027, but serial production has now been pushed back to 2027 due to sanctions and design/documentation delays (Wikipedia, AeroTime, Army Recognition)
Estimated delay: ~
2 years from 2025 target to current 2027 projection.
Summary Table
Fighter | Originally Expected Serial Production Start | Actual / Current Estimate | Approximate Delay |
---|
F‑22 Raptor | ~1998 | ~1999–2000 | ~1 year |
F‑35 | ~2010 (IOC/full‑rate) | ~2015 (IOC), full‑rate in 2024 | ~2½–3 years before IOC/~14 years before full‑rate |
Su‑57 | ~2015 | ~2027 | ~12 years |
J‑20 | ~2017–19 | IOC ~2017, still engine delays through 2022 | ~1–2 years |
Su‑75 Checkmate | ~2025 | ~2027 | ~2 years |
Notes & Nuances:
- These figures reflect observed delays up to the point serial production (or official IOC) began, as documented in the sources; some programs (especially J‑20 and Su‑57) remain ongoing with evolving schedules.
- The F‑35 is special: while IOC occurred in 2015, formal full‑rate production was only authorized in March 2024, representing a very long development‑to‑production ramp. (Reddit, Reuters)
- For J‑20, while LRIP started in 2015 and service entry by 2017, unresolved engine reliability issues stretched into 2022. (GlobalSecurity)
- Russian programs have faced added geopolitical/sanction constraints impacting timelines.
Conclusion
All five major fifth‑generation fighter programs experienced significant delays before entering serial production or IOC—ranging from about
1 year (F‑22) to over a
decade (Su‑57). The F‑35 stands out for its multi‑phase delays: late IOC and very protracted progress before full-rate production. All figures above are based solely on publicly documented schedules and reported slips from official or reputable sources.
Let me know if you’d like more detail on any specific case or on sub‑variants (e.g. F‑35B vs C).